1. Experiences in Linking a Soil C and N Module into a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) Jo Smith 1, Kevin Coleman 2, Pete Smith 1 Andy Whitmore 2, Pete Falloon 3 Matt Aitkenhead 1, Chris Jones 3 1 23

2. Questions  What is the state of the art?  What data are required to improve and evaluate the model?  How could better science improve the model?  What are the key feedbacks to be quantified?  Are other feedbacks expected?  What significant improvements in next 5 years?

3. Global economic mitigation potential for different sectors at different carbon prices IPCC WGIII (2007)

4. Uncertainty in anthropogenic carbon emissions up to 400 ppm IPCC SRES 2000; Friedlingstein et al. 2006 Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21 st century up to 250 ppm Uncertainty in biospheric-carbon-climatefeedback Slide adapted from Pep Canadell, GCP

5. Objectives  Soil C and N component –Fully integrated –Had-GEM  Existing model –Tested and published –Live –Adapted for general application  Source code available to all –Programming style –Provenence

6. HadGEM2 JULES UK community land surface model RothC Model of soil C SUNDIAL Model of soil C and N - arable soils ECOSSE Model of soil C and N - all soil types & all land uses MOSES Soil water TRIFFID Plant model

7. Soil Carbon Model – RothC (Jenkinson, 1977) DPM RPM CO 2 BIO HUM CO 2 BIO HUM Decomposable plant material Resistant plant material Active organic matter Stabilised organic matter IOM Inert organic matter

8. Evaluation of Roth-C EG. Smith et al (1997) Geoderma, 81, 153-225 ` Bad Lauchstädt - arable No fertiliser Bad Lauchstädt - arable High fertiliser Praha-Ruznye - arable No fertiliser Praha-Ruznye - arable High fertiliser Tamworth - fallow Tamworth – clover/lucerne Waite – wheat / fallowWaite – wheat/oats/pasture Years Soil organic carbon (t C ha -1 )

9. Evaluation of Roth-C EG. Smith et al (1997) Geoderma, 81, 153-225 Rothamsted – Park grass No fertiliser Calhoun forestry Rothamsted – Park grass Organic manure Geescroft Wilderness Years Soil organic carbon (t C ha -1 )

10. Evaluation of Roth-C EG. Smith et al (1997) Geoderma, 81, 153-225 Comparison of 9 major soil organic matter models CENTURY ROTHC CANDY DNDC DAISY SOMM ITE Verberne NCSOIL RMSE RMSE 95%

11. Evaluation of Roth-C EG. Smith et al (1997) Geoderma, 81, 153-225 CENTURY ROTHC CANDY DNDC DAISY SOMM ITE Verberne NCSOIL E Comparison of 9 major soil organic matter models E 95%

12. Evaluation of Roth-C EG. Smith et al (1997) Geoderma, 81, 153-225 Comparison of 9 major soil organic matter models CENTURY ROTHC CANDY DNDC DAISY SOMM ITE Verberne NCSOIL ) t(r)

13. Application of Roth-C Soft link to a DGVM Soil C (ROTH-C) Climate Data Historical LPJ -DGVM GCM Soils Data NPP Data EFISCEN LPJ -DGVM Land Use Data ATEAM Rounsevell Corine database Technology Data Ewert et al. 2005 Smith et al (2005) GCB, 11, 2141-2152

14. Scenarios for future climate (IPCC SRES) GlobalLocal Economically oriented Environmentally oriented A1 – “World Markets” very rapid economic growth low population growth rapid introduction of technology personal wealth above environment A2 – “Provincial Enterprise” strengthening regional cultural identities emphasis on family values and local traditions high population growth less concern for rapid economic development B1 – “Global Sustainability” rapid change in economic structures "dematerialization” introduction of clean technologies emphasis is on global solutions B2 – “Local Stewardship” emphasis is on local solutions less rapid, and more diverse technological change strong emphasis on community initiative local, rather than global solutions Nakicenovic et al. (2000), Smith & Powlson (2003)

15. Climate-only impact on forest SOC (effect of different climate scenarios) (HadCM3)

16. Climate-only impact on cropland and grassland SOC - (effect of different climate scenarios) (HadCM3)

17. Change in forest SOC – climate only

18. Note: 2080 and 1990 are 30 year averages of 2051-2080 and 1961-1990 respectively Change in forest SOC - climate only SOC Temperature Water balance

19. Change in grassland SOC – climate only

20. Change in cropland SOC – climate only

21. Application of Roth-C Soft link to a DGVM Soil C (ROTH-C) Climate Data Historical LPJ -DGVM GCM Soils Data NPP Data EFISCEN LPJ -DGVM Land Use Data ATEAM Rounsevell Corine database Technology Data Ewert et al. 2005 Smith et al (2005) GCB, 11, 2141-2152

22. Change in forest litter inputs 2000-2100 (HadCM3)

23. Comparing climate-only with climate & litter effects for forest (HadCM3-A2)

24. Comparing climate-only with climate&NPP effects for croplands & grasslands (HadCM3-A2) Climate OnlyClimate and NPP

25. Effect of technology in croplands & grasslands (HadCM3-A2) Climate Only Climate & NPPClimate & NPP & Tech Minimum Maximum

26. Application of Roth-C Soft link to a DGVM Soil C (ROTH-C) Climate Data Historical LPJ -DGVM GCM Soils Data NPP Data EFISCEN LPJ -DGVM Land Use Data ATEAM Rounsevell Corine database Technology Data Ewert et al. 2005 Smith et al (2005) GCB, 11, 2141-2152

27. Impact on total forest SOC No land-use change

28. Including land-use change Impact on total forest SOC

29. Impact on total grassland SOC Including land-use change A1FIA2 B1B2

30. Impact on total cropland SOC Including land-use change A1FIA2 B1B2

31. Overall effect on forest SOC land-use changeland-use change change in age-class structurechange in age-class structure climate and CO 2 driven NPP increaseclimate and CO 2 driven NPP increase direct climate impacts on the soildirect climate impacts on the soil +0.1% -0.3% +27% +19% Total SOC (Pg)

32. Overall effect on grassland SOC land-use changeland-use change technology improvementtechnology improvement climate and CO 2 driven NPP increaseclimate and CO 2 driven NPP increase direct climate impacts on the soildirect climate impacts on the soil -35% -44% -20% +25% Total SOC (Pg)

33. Overall effect on cropland SOC -53% -51% -40% -39% Total SOC (Pg) land-use changeland-use change change in age-class structurechange in age-class structure technology improvementtechnology improvement climate and CO 2 driven NPP increaseclimate and CO 2 driven NPP increase direct climate impacts on the soildirect climate impacts on the soil

34. Overall effect on total SOC -23% -24% -5% -0.5% Total SOC (Pg) land-use changeland-use change technology improvementtechnology improvement climate and CO 2 driven NPP increaseclimate and CO 2 driven NPP increase direct climate impacts on the soildirect climate impacts on the soil includes biofuels and other land usesincludes biofuels and other land uses

35. Soil C (ROTH-C) Climate Data Historical LPJ -DGVM GCM Soils Data NPP Data EFISCEN LPJ -DGVM Land Use Data ATEAM Rounsevell Corine database Technology Data Ewert et al. 2005 Smith et al (2005) GCB, 11, 2141-2152 Feedbacks Plant Growth CO 2 Soil N N2ON2O

36. Soil level CO 2 Moisture Texture Temperature Decomposition Drivers Water Module Temperature Module Texture Module Decomposition INPUTS Yield & manage DPMRPM Carbon Component of SUNDIAL BIO HUM IOM INPUTS Max.Water level Rain,PET INPUTS Air Temp INPUTS Soil Parameters Soil C and N model for arable land - SUNDIAL Bradbury et al, 1993 Smith et al, 1996

37. Moisture Texture Temperature Decomposition Drivers Temperature Module Texture Module Soil level INPUTS Max.Water level Rain,PET INPUTS Air Temp INPUTS Soil Parameters Decomposition RPM DPM Water Module N 2 O & N 2 NH 3 INPUTS Yield & management Nitrogen Component of SUNDIAL Soil C and N model for arable land - SUNDIAL Plant N Leached N NO 3 - BIO HUM IOM NH 4 + Bradbury et al, 1993 Smith et al, 1996

38. Evaluation of SUNDIAL SUNDIAL SUNDIALMINERVA RMSE 52 47 t(M) 1.5 (n.s) - Simulated and Observed Soil Mineral N (0-90 cm) Loam site (Krummbach) - Treatment Without Manure

39. Evaluation of SUNDIAL All non-significant Simulated and Observed Soil Organic C and N Loam site (Krummbach)

40. Soil level CO 2 Moisture Texture Temperature Decomposition Drivers Water Module Decomposition INPUTS Yield & manage DPMRPM Carbon Component of ECOSSE BIO HUM IOM INPUTS Max.Water level Rain,PET INPUTS Air Temp INPUTS Soil Parameters Soil C and N model for all land use - ECOSSE Water level Oxygen Acidity Acidity Module Oxygen Module Temperature Module Texture Module CH 4 Methane Oxidation Meth. Oxid. DOC INPUTS NPP & LU Type

41. Moisture Texture Temperature Decomposition Drivers Texture Module Soil level INPUTS Max.Water level Rain,PET INPUTS Air Temp INPUTS Soil Parameters Decomposition RPM DPM N 2 O & N 2 NH 3 Nitrogen Component of ECOSSE Water level Soil C and N model for all land use - ECOSSE INPUTS NPP & LU Type Acidity Acidity Module Oxygen Module Temperature Module Water Module Plant N BIO NO 3 - HUM IOM NH 4 + Leached N DON

42. Respiration rate during laboratory incubation (Foereid et al., 2004) Independent evaluation – CO 2 release Calculations by B. Foereid, UoA

43. Independent evaluation – soil ammonium and nitrate in a peat in Finland Ammonium and nitrate simulated by ECOSSE for a peat cultivated with spring barley in southern Finland (60 o 49 ’ N, 23 o 30 ’ E). Calculations by B. Foereid, UoA

44. Soil NH 4 in a peat cultivated with spring barley in Southern Finland (60 o 49 ’ N, 23 o 30 ’ E) (Regina et al, 2004). Independent evaluation – soil ammonium in a cultivated peat in Finland Calculations by M.Aitkenhead, UoA

45. N 2 O emissions for a peat cultivated with spring barley in Southern Finland (60 o 49 ’ N, 23 o 30 ’ E) (Regina et al, 2004). Independent evaluation – nitrous oxide emissions from a cultivated peat in Finland Calculations by M.Aitkenhead, UoA

46. Mass loss from litterbag experiment in Harvard forest, US (Magill & Aber, 1998) Nitrogen content in remaining material from litterbag experiment in Harvard forest, US (Magill & Aber, 1998) Independent evaluation – Mass loss & N from litter bags – more to do Calculations by B. Foereid, UoA

47. Nitrate in 50 cm Implementation of “birch effect” Growing season Growing season Data from Ikerra (1999)

48. Ammonium in 50 cm Implementation of “birch effect” Growing season Growing season Data from Ikerra (1999)

49. Soil Water 0 – 50 cm Data from Hartemink (2000) Water in mm 0 – 15 cm 30 - 50 cm 15 - 30 cm

50. Application of ECOSSE National simulations… 1.Test model at site scale 2.Compare to best current estimates at national scale

51. Application of ECOSSE Scotland 2000-2009 National simulations compare well with the CEH inventory…

52. Scotland 2000-2009 Total Grassland -> Arable Arable -> Grassland Application of ECOSSE

53. Soil C (ROTH-C) Climate Data HistoricalDGVMGCM Soils Data NPP Data EFISCENDGVM Land Use Data ATEAM Rounsevell Corine database Technology Data Ewert et al. 2005 Feedbacks Plant Growth CO 2 Soil N N2ON2O CO 2 & CH 4 Soil N N2ON2O Soil C (ECOSSE)

54. HadGEM2 JULES UK community land surface model State of the art RothC Model of soil Cour SUNDIAL Model of soil C and N - arable soils ECOSSE Model of soil C and N - all land uses MOSES Soil water TRIFFID Plant model

55. Moisture Texture Temperature Decomposition Drivers Texture Module Soil level INPUTS Max.Water level Rain,PET INPUTS Air Temp INPUTS Soil Parameters Decomposition RPM DPM N 2 O & N 2 NH 3 Nitrogen Component of Organic Soils Model Water level Soil C and N model for all land use - ECOSSE Acidity Acidity Module Oxygen Module Temperature Module Water Module BIO NO 3 - HUM IOM NH 4 + Leached N DON INPUTS NPP & LU Type JULES Soil water Plant N JULES Plant model

56. Soil C (ECOSSE) Feedbacks CO 2 & CH 4 Soil N N2ON2O Climate Data HistoricalDGVMGCM Soils Data NPP Data EFISCENDGVM Land Use Data ATEAM Rounsevell Corine database Technology Data Ewert et al. 2005 Plant Growth CO 2

57. Significant improvements over the next 5 years…

58. Nitrogen – a key feedback Mangani et al (2007) Nature, 447:848-852

59. Significant improvements over the next 5 years  Large scale runs including C and N feedbacks –on climate –on plant growth (more in next talk?)

60. Potential of agricultural management for global mitigation Smith et al. (2007)

61. Significant improvements over the next 5 years  Large scale runs including C and N feedbacks –on climate –on plant growth (more in next talk?)  Impacts of land management

62. Questions  What is the state of the art?  What data are required to improve and evaluate the model?  How could better science improve the model?  What are the key feedbacks to be quantified?  Are other feedbacks expected?  What significant improvements in next 5 years? Soil C and N model linked and ready to go More site evaluation Large scale evaluation? GHG  Climate GHG  plant growth Climate  plant growth Climate  Soil C & N Climate  land use Plant growth  GHG Plant growth  Soil C & N Plant growth  Land use Land use  GHG Land use  Soil C & N Soil C & N  plant growth Soil C & N  GHG Large scale runs including C & N feedbacks Impacts of land management Temperature sensitivity Physical protection

63. Acknowledgements  Scottish Executive –Development of ECOSSE  EU –ATEAM –CarboEurope - IP –NitroEurope - IP  DEFRA –Development of soils module in JULES  NERC QUEST –Further development of soils module in JULES  BBSRC –Rothamsted Research receives grant aided support from the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council