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Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005 Tsunami Warning and Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Efforts in Nicaragua Wilfried Strauch, INETER, Managua.

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Presentation on theme: "Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005 Tsunami Warning and Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Efforts in Nicaragua Wilfried Strauch, INETER, Managua."— Presentation transcript:

1 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Tsunami Warning and Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Efforts in Nicaragua Wilfried Strauch, INETER, Managua -Tsunami causes -Tsunami hazard estimation -Warning system

2 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Tsunami en los 1990

3 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Nicaragua Tsunami earthquakeMw=7.6 - Very low seismic effect - No warning > 170 killed

4 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep No knowledge about tsunami hazard No seismic network No communications system No tsunami warning system No trained personnel No educated population

5 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Actions of INETER after 1992 Sept. 1992: of seismic monitoring, service 24x7 1993: Integration into PTWS, ITSU Development seismic network (1992:2 estaciones, 2005: 61 estaciones) Development of Monitoring and Early Warning center Development Information&Communications del Systems Execution of projects on tsunami hazard Development of sea gauge network Pushing a Regional Warning System in CA 2005 Seismic broad band network, Small seismic array, 2005 Facilities for immediate information to population

6 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Tsunami sources in Nicaragua

7 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Tsunami Catalogue – 49 tsunamis in Central America 5 affected Nicaragua 1 desastrous en Nicaragua (1992) Sources: Morales, ; Molina, 1994, Fernández et al, 1999

8 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Funding After 1992 tsunami little interest of funding agencies (“low probability for another tsunami”) Participation of INETER in research projects Additional funding by Nicaraguan goverment – financial source for development of seismic monitoring and Tsunami warning system

9 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Basic research on Tectonics, structure, etc After the 1992 tsunami – deeper earthquake and tsunami knowledge for Nicaragua and CA due to a large number of research work and projects on subduction processes, tectonics, geology, volcanology, seismic source mechanisms, tsunami generation,.. Especially: NSF funded “Subduction factory” DFG/Germany funded “Special research area” E.g – temporary broad band network for crustal structure and seismicity studies. Nicaragua & Costa Rica. 46 stations. With Boston Univ. & Brown Univ.

10 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Tsunami due to submarine landslide Shaded relief map of multibeam bathymetry data showing the Jaco scarp produced by seamount subduction offshore Costa Rica. A faulted block occurs downslope of the main scarp, which seems to indicate that detached blocks creep along headwall faults without loosing their coherent structure. However, a slumped mass at the base of the headwall scarp indicates that blocks may eventually fail catastrophically. Ranero & Weinrebe, 2004 Source: GEOMAR, 2004

11 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Lake Managua: Tsunamis caused by volcanic explosion Sources: Volcanic hazards in Nicaragua: Past, present, and future. A.Freundt, St.Kutterolf, H.-U.Schmincke, T.Hansteen, H.Wehrmann,W. Perez,, W. Strauch, Navarro, in preparación Tsunami in Lake Managua, Nicaragua, triggered by a compositionally zoned plinian eruption, A. Freundt, St. Kutterolf, H. Wehrmann, H-U. Schmincke, W.Strauch,Conference, IAVCEI, Chile, 2004 Source of volcanic explosion which generated tsunami Sampling points Max. Height of waves : 20 m When? Aprox 2000 years ago Foto: Section of Mateare in the low area Oeste de la West of Chiltepe peninsula. Unit A A, fallout, product of discontinuous plinian activity 2)Mateare sand (MS) deposited by the tsunami,and 3) Unit B – massive fallout of pommes of the stable plinian phase of the eruption..

12 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Lake Nicaragua: Tsunami by volcano collapse ? Mombacho volcano: Prehistorical collapse. No evidences yet for ocurrence of tsunami. Other possible sites: Momotombo volcano Concepción volcano. In process: Study on possible tsunami generation and propagation in Lake Nicaragua. Mombacho Volcano 1200 m Isletas Granada city Apoyo Caldera Landslide, Collapse Tsunami!? 5 km Source: INETER-NGI-Project

13 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Tsunami hazard estimation

14 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Identification of high risk areas, “hot spots” Height -> “Hazard” m low m high very high < 5 m very high Corinto Population density Landscan 2004 Source:Strauch, 2005

15 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Corinto “Hot spot” Corinto Population: Aprox. 10,000 Height: 4 msnm. Evacuation route km !??? Save place

16 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Inundation maps based on numerical simulation, Pacific coast (to be finished December 2005) Recollection of existing bathymetric data Bathymetric mapping of Masachapa area Digital elevation model of the coastal strip Seismic source mechanism, 1992 tsunami earthquake Numerical simulation of tsunami generation and propagation (TIME) Inundation maps Source: INETER-JICA-Project

17 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Corinto San Juan del Sur Puerto Sandino Study areas – most populated places Masachapa Bathymetry Source: INETER-JICA-Project,

18 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Pilot Project: Tsunami disaster prevention in Masachapa area Source: INETER-COSUDE Project, Information and education -Local hazard map; -Save places, evacuation routes -Tsunami signs -Prevention measures for schools -Installation of sirens -Participation of local administration and population

19 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Alert System

20 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Alert system: Local tsunami -Magnitud: > 7.0 -Location: Nicaraguan Pacific Ocean

21 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Local Tsunami – Alert System * Earthquake->Tsunami Seismic recording Civil Defense – to local administrations, 10 min Evacuation wave arrives in 45 minutes! Analysis – Seismic data center Automatic procedures: -Broad band sensor -Small seismic array -Virtual regional network Radio, TV stations – to population, 2 min Cellular phone –to local population, 2 min 10 min ? human factor 3 min

22 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Chinandega (El viejo) 1.- Venecia 2.- Aposentillo 3.- Jiquilillo 4.- Aserraderos 5.- Los Zorros 6.- Padre Ramos 7.- Mechapa 8.- Punta Nata 9.- Potosí Chinandega (Corinto) 10.- Corinto 11.- Isla del Cardón 12.- Isla del Amor Chinandega (El Realejo) 13.- Isla Maderas Negras 14.- Isla Paredones 15.- Paso Caballos León 16.- El Tránsito 17.- Puerto Sandino 18.- Salinas Grandes 19.- Poneloya 20.- Las Peñitas 21.- Los Brasiles Managua 22.- Salamina 23.- Montelimar 24.- Masachapa 25.- Pochomil 26.- San Diego 27.- Gran Pacífica 28.- Miraflores Carazo 29.- Casares 30.- La Boquita 31.- Bocana de Masapa Jinotepe 32.- Tipilapa 33.- Huehuete 34.- La Bocana Rivas 35.- El Ostional 36.- San Juan del Sur 37.- El Menco 38.- El Gigante 39.- San Martín 40.- Las Salinas 41.- El Astillero 42.- La Flor (130,000) under risk INETER CODE DEFENSA CIVIL 90 kms 45 min Civil Defense Communications System Source Defensa Civil, 2005

23 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Alert messenger to PC screen of radio/TV presenters (under testing) -SMS cell phone to decision maker (under testing) -SMS cell phone to large sectors of population (under development ) New communication methods (in development)

24 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Thank you !

25 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Towards a Regional Tsunami Warning System in Central America Wilfried Strauch, INETER, Managua with support from: CEPREDENAC INSIVUMEH – Guatemala; SNET- El Salvador; OVSICORI, UCR, CASC-Costa Rica; UPA- Panama; COPECO-Honduras.

26 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep “Hot Spots” Tsunami CA Corinto Panamá Puerto Armuelles Puntarenas El Triunfo Boca del Toro Bilwi El Bluff/Bluefields San Carlos - Low profile of the coast; -high population concentration Hight -> “Hazard” m low m high very high < 5 m very high Colón

27 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Regional program for a tsunami warning system in Central America Proposal of INETER (2003) to CEPREDENAC, based on experience in Nicaragua Adopted in 2005 Creation of national warning systems Every national WS obtains data from all other countries, in real time Every national WS transmits its warning messages to all other countries A variety of technical communications measures are tobe used A very redundant system

28 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep The 2004 Tsunami in South Asia stimulated: Actions of CEPREDENAC (Regional Center for Disaster Prevention) Tsunami hazard studies and education measures in Costa Rica Interest of Emergency Commissions in all CA countries Meetings of the relevant institutions of all CA countries More interest of funding agencies

29 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Activities in CA towards a Tsunami Warning System, Meeting of body of Directors of CEPREDENAC,Kobe, Decision about a strategic meeting -Strategic meeting on Tsunami WS, in San Salvador, -Decision on program Regional Tsunami WS - Tsunami Workshop, 25-27Abril, Managua Presentation of immediate actions and project profiles - Workshop on digital seismic data acquisition and processing Training for data seismic data exchange and virtual networks

30 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep National Warning Centers Consider the threat of local tsunamis: The local tsunami threat is more efficient using the national capacities of seismic and hidrografic monitoring and using local communications methods to the population. Independent alert for regional eventss : For the detection of a potentional regional threat a single seismic station can be sufficient (e.g. with TREMORS software). Interpretation of the messages of PTWC : It is national responsability to interprete the inforemation or warning messages of PTWC and to decide how to act on them. Dissemination of alert messages: Only the national centers can cooperate efficiently with national and local authorities to make sure that the warning messages are distribute rapidly to the areas under risk and to establish evacuation plans.

31 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Alert system - Formation of a technical steering committee - Formation of National Warning Centers - Integration in PTWS of all CA countries (missing: Panama, Honduras) - Elaboration of national communications plans, preliminary Monitoring and communications network - Exchange of seismic data in real time, virtual seismic networks Projects - Elaboration of project proposals for long an medium term development Immediate actions, planned for 2005

32 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Possibles Projects Monitoreo y Alerta.Improvement/installation of a seismic broad band network, satelital. Installation of a sea gauges, including off shore. Information on alternative tsunami detection methods Hazard mapping. Hazard mapping, tsunami simulation, inundation maps. “Hot spot” = population centers under high risk. Factibility studies on special protection measures for “Hot Spots”. Studies of tsunami causes – earthquakes, volc.explosiones, submarine slides Información y Educación. Alternative measures for information and education of population

33 Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, sep Muchas Gracias!


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