1. Modeling High-Tech Deployment in International Environments for Effective Policy-Making DHP P232 / ESD.127 Telecommunications Modeling and Policy Analysis January 30 th, 2002

2. Agenda What is a model and how good is a model? Why do we care for technology-based models? Building up a cost model: architectural principles Using your model effectively for policy-making What your model should aim at – research question What your model should have (T+B+P)

3. What is a model? An abstraction of reality: “…something used to explain some phenomena to other people in a way they can understand it…” A very old and often used model: “it usually rains when the sky is cloudy” Expressed in a proper language: To capture “emergent behavior” To explain “principal components” To raise understanding about “driving forces”

4. How good is a model? A good model is one that satisfactorily: meets a goal answers a research question creates knowledge upon the assumptions Bad model  Uncertain: uncertainty is a characteristic of a model Types of models (by purpose): Descriptive: capture the “state-of the art” Prospective: predict the future state of the model Supportive: aimed at justifying action

5. Where are we? In this course, we care for “telecommunications modeling” “all models” “engineering models” “telecommunications models” New telecommunication technologies in international business environments DHP P232 ESD.127

6. Technology-based cost models New technology: little knowledge about architecture careful extrapolation of historical data on similar technologies Cost models: equipment costs “easy” to define and obtain poor idea of elasticity of demand, no idea of revenues impossible to characterize equilibrium and shifts Types of costs: capital, operational, maintenance, SM&A “green-field”, “forward-looking”

7. Building-up a cost model Looking at previous projects: Set the stage: assumptions, research question, build intuition Architecture: block diagrams and scenarios Implementation: modeling tool and getting data Analysis: answer question develop further Map this to your syllabus…

8. A few architectural principles Bottom up vs. top down: Define business environment, assess technological needs and plug-in technologies Define technology, assess business conditions and design deployment strategies Complexity: how should you spend your time? Robustness: reaction to perturbations Modularity: define interfaces! datadata archarch X+  XY+  Y

9. Using your model Discuss validity of assumptions Discuss weaknesses of the model Present ideas for improvement Use sensitivity analysis from a base scenario: Base scenario X1 X2 X3 “Tornado” diagram Y=f(X1,X2,X3)

10. Model to answer research question Include technology, business and policy characteristics Model towards the research question: Keep objective in mind, do not waste energy, mainly in getting the data! Include all dimensions of analysis and praise multi-disciplinarity: DHP P232/ESD.127 = Learning environment! technology business policy An example: “Wireless Leapfrogging in Africa” Fletcher + TPP