Presentation on theme: "2C1Forest and Science-based Conservation: Overview of Phase 1 Accomplishments Justina C. Ray, WCS Canada."— Presentation transcript:
2C1Forest and Science-based Conservation: Overview of Phase 1 Accomplishments Justina C. Ray, WCS Canada
2C1Forest reinventing conservation for 21st Century Science-based, transboundary, landscape-scale conservation
A 2C1Forest Collaborative Project Mark Anderson Science Team, TNC lead Rob Baldwin 2C1Forest Scientist, Future Trends/Maine lead Karen Beazley Science Team, Dalhousie/NS lead Graham Forbes Science Team, UNB/NB lead Louise Gratton Science Team, NCC/Que. lead Justina Ray Science Team, WCS lead Conrad Reining Science Team, Wildlands lead Steve Trombulak Science Director, 2C1Forest/VT,NH,NY lead Gillian Woolmer HF 2000 lead, lead GIS analyst
Phase 1: Laying foundation for landscape- scale conservation strategy: priority locations Phase 2: Planning for connectivity and climate change in focal linkage areas
Conservation Planning Components Importance: the extent to which locations on the landscape are replaceable with respect to achieving the conservation goals we have specified. Vulnerabilility: extent and threat of conversion/transformation both now and in the future.
Measuring Importance Special ecosystems Representative land units Focal species Rare species
Ecoregional Planning Select Conservation Targets Fine Filter:Species Coarse Filter: Ecological Communities, Systems, and Physical Diversity Assess Viability of Target Occurrences Size Condition Landscape Context Set Representation and Redundancy Goals Number and Distribution
Irreplaceability MARXAN site selection tool 1000 ha planning units Protected Areas locked-in, Urban areas locked-out Preference for public lands (incld. crown lands) Conservation elements Focal species – lynx, marten and Wolf (Carroll, 2003 & 2005) Ecological variation (TNC/NCC)) Rare element occurrences (TNC/NCC)
Physical habitat degradation: two processes Human Footprint 2000 1)Incremental expansion in settled landscapes (Modeled in Future Human Footprint with residential roads and population density) 2) Large-scale conversion of “wild” and unsettled landscapes Modeled in FHF with Lakeshore Development Zones
Lily Bay After proposed resort development (photo simulation) Lily Bay Before proposed resort development Simulation obtained from Natural Resources Council of Maine http://www.nrcm.org/plumcreek_impacts.asp Land Use Change Process 2: Moosehead Lake proposed development on private forestland
Future Human Footprint (2040) North Central Lakes scenario (rapid growth)
Each planning unit has: 1 score for importance 4 scores for HF scenarios High Importance, Low Threat High Importance, High Threat Low importance, High Threat Low importance, Low Threat CUT-OFF Hi/Lo: MEDIAN SCORES URGENCY & OPPORTUNITY
Importance vs. Threat (current) at 10 km 2 scale
Importance vs. Threat (current) at Watershed scale
Importance vs. Threat (current) at Ecological Unit scale
Importance vs. Threat (Current HF) at 10 km 2 scale Importance vs. Threat (transition) at 10 km 2 scale
KEY PATTERNS large areas that still retain characteristics of “wild” landscapes and that have not yet experienced permanent transformation to settlement, large areas of permanent transformation that threaten and increasingly fragment the “wild” landscapes, an increase in transformation in most locations under most future scenarios, and areas of high irreplaceability and vulnerability across the region that are not currently protected or targeted for protection.
TAKE-HOME MESSAGES Identifies the most urgent priorities in the form of conservation triage. Identifies sites that are most likely to increase in vulnerability status, many of which lie within zones of connectivity between important relatively intact areas. The selection of the planning unit has great bearing on the ultimate results in priority ranking, and must therefore be chosen carefully. Individual layers that collectively contribute to assessments of irreplaceability and vulnerability should not disappear from view, and will be equally valuable to planners characterizing the landscape in question.