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Geological and Hydraulic Safety along Motorways and Railways EVENT AND RISK SCENARIOS Pasquale VERSACE P ROGETTO PON01_01503 S ISTEMI INTEGRATI PER IL MONITORAGGIO, L ’ EARLY WARNING E LA MITIGAZIONE DEL RISCHIO IDROGEOLOGICO LUNGO LE GRANDI VIE DI COMUNICAZIONE. D ISCUTIAMO I RISULTATI

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Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate Challenges and topic for discussions ■C■C ommunication and dissemination ■S■Some regions do nothing in case of yellow level, neither send forward to municipalities ■O■Others complain of too many yellow and do not like to have 2 separate warning (flood and landslides) ■S■Some municipalities wish to receive directly warnings and not through regions ■W■What to do in the different levels? Authorities start to act only when is red level (not everybody understand that in yellow and orange level damages can occur). ■L■Lack of emergency plans and risk maps (identifying critical areas) ■C■C ommunication (experts and population) ■A■Avoid too many false alarm, wrong level: yellow orange ■T■Too many leaders/politicians between experts and population/local authorities (developing countries vs developed countries)

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Event scenarios Risk scenarios Levels of criticality Levels of alert INTERVENTION MODEL

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Event scenarios Properties of expected phenomena Landslide velocity Landslide surface Landslide scarp Landslide volume Thickness Magnitude Involved material Occurrence probability Geometric index

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LANDSLIDE VELOCITY (VEL) CLASSTYPEDESCRIPTION 1Slow (VEL1) < 5x10 -6 m/s (13 m/month); classes 1,2,3 from Cruden & Varnes (1996) 2 Moderate (VEL2) > 5x10 -6 m/s (13 m/month); class 4 from Cruden & Varnes (1996) 3Rapid (VEL3) > 5x10 -4 m/s (1,8 m/hour); class 5 from Cruden & Varnes (1996) 4 Very rapid (VEL4) > 5x10 -2 m/s (3 m/min); class 6 from Cruden & Varnes (1996) 5 Extremely rapid (VEL5) > 5 m/s; class 7 from Cruden & Varnes (1996)

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LANDSLIDE SURFACE (SUR) CLASSTYPEDESCRIPTION 1Very small (SUR1)< 100 m 2 2Small (SUR2)< 1.000 m 2 3Medium (SUR3)< 10.000 m 2 4Large (SUR4)< 100.000 m 2 5Very large (SUR5)> 100.000 m 2 LANDSLIDE SCARP (SCA) CLASSTYPEDESCRIPTION 1Very small (SCA1)< 10 m 2Small (SCA2)< 100 m 3Medium (SCA3)< 500 m 4Large (SCA4)< 1.000 m 5Very large (SCA5)> 1.000 m

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LANDSLIDE VOLUME (VOL) CLASSTYPEDESCRIPTION 1Extremely small (VOL1)< 500 m 3 2Very small (VOL2)< 5.000 m 3 3Small (VOL3)< 50.000 m 3 4Medium (VOL4)< 500.000 m 3 5Large (VOL5)> 500.000 m 3 THICKNESS (THI) CLASSTYPEDESCRIPTION 1Very shallow (THI1)≤ 0,5 m 2Shallow (THI2)≤ 2 m 3Medium (THI3)≤ 10 m 4Deep (THI4)≤ 30 m 5Very deep (THI5)> 30 m

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GEOMETRIC INDEX (GEI) CLASSTYPEDESCRIPTION 1 Very small (GEI1) All SUR, SCA, VOL, THI are equal to 1 2Small (GEI2) At least a value is equal to 2 among SUR, SCA, VOL, THI 3 Medium (GEI3) At least a value is equal to 3 among SUR, SCA, VOL, THI 4Large (GEI4) At least a value is equal to 4 among SUR, SCA, VOL, THI 5 Very large (GEI5) At least a value is equal to 5 among SUR, SCA, VOL, THI

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MAGNITUDE (MAG) CLASSTYPE 1Low (MAG1) 2Moderate (MAG2) 3High (MAG3) VEL1VEL2VEL3VEL4VEL5 GEI1MAG1 MAG2 GEI2MAG1 MAG2 MAG3 GEI3MAG1MAG2 MAG3 GEI4MAG2 MAG3 GEI5MAG2MAG3 f(GEI, VEL)

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INVOLVED MATERIAL (IM) TYPE Mud Debris Earth Rock Mixture of components OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY (PRO) CLASSTYPEDESCRIPTION 1lowT > 100 years 2moderateT< 100 years 3highT < 20 years 4Very highT< 5 years 5=1T< 1 year

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MAP OF EVENT SCENARIOS – level 1 Perimeter of landslide and propagation zone MAG1 MAG2 MAG3

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MAP OF EVENT SCENARIOS – level 2 Normalized value Mud Debris Earth Mixture of components GEI VELMAG PRO

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MAP OF EVENT SCENARIOS – level 3 Mud Debris Earth Mixture of components Normalized value PRO MAG VEL GEI SUR VOLTHISCA

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MAP OF EVENT SCENARIOS – level 3

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Risk scenarios

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A.Mud and/or debris movements which could induce a friction reduction and facilitate slips

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Risk scenarios B.Road subsidence induced by landslides that could drag or drop vehicles

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Risk scenarios C.Falls of significant volumes and/or boulders that could crush or cover vehicles and constitute an obstacle for others vehicles

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Risk scenarios A B C a.hydraulic infrastructures and/or barriers b.only emergency lane c.lane d.fast lane e.fast lane of the opposite carriageway f.lane of the opposite carriageway 18 risk scenarios

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Risk scenarios Up Down AaAbAc

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AfAeAd Risk scenarios Up Down

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CdBdAd Risk scenarios Up Down

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Risk scenarios

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Up Down CbCcCdCaCeCf Risk scenarios

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Levels of criticality and alert SENSORS MODEL OUTPUTS 4 STATES: state 0 (S0) = no variation state 1 (S1) = small variation state 2 (S2) = moderate variation state 3 (S3) = high variation INDICATORS Meteorological and hydrological models for vaste areas (for example FLaIR model) IND SEN 2 STATES: state 0 (S0) = no variation or not significant state 1 (S1) = significant variation CAED

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Example SUSHI Model FS (t = t 0 )

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Example FS t = t 0 t = t 1 t = t 2 Scenario 11,261,541,67 Scenario 21,261,111,05 Scenario 31,261,331,42 …1,261,481,15 Scenario N1,261,421,13 SUSHI Model

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FS t = t 0 t = t 1 t = t 2 Scenario 11,261,541,67 Scenario 21,261,111,05 Scenario 31,261,331,42 …1,261,481,15 Scenario N1,261,421,13 t = t 0 t = t 1 t = t 2 B S0 G S1S0 A S2S1S0 R S3S2S1 t = t 0 t = t 1 t = t 2 Scenario 1S1S0 Scenario 2S1 Scenario 3S1S0 …S1S0 Scenario NS1S0 t = t 0 t = t 1 t = t 2 S1 4 STATES: State 0 (S0) = no variation state 1 (S1) = small variation state 2 (S2) = moderate variation state 3 (S3) = high variation Example

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RADAR TYPE DescriptionClass 1Class 2Class 3 ANumber of Strips 1 strip (A1) 2-3 strips (A2) > 3 strips (A3) B Signal Intensity, indicating the part of strip involved by a movement level 1 (B1) level 2 (B2) C M resolution < M (C1) < 2 M (C2) A1A2A3 B1A1’A2’A3’ B2A2’A3’ C1C2 A1’S1S2 A2’S2S3 A3’S3

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ExampleSCATTEROMETER TYPEDescriptionClass 1Class 2Class 3 ANumber of Strips1 strip2 strips≥ 3 strips B M resolution< M< 2 M< 3 M A1A2A3 B1S1S2S3 B2S2S3 B3S3

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Levels of criticality and alert SENSORS MODEL OUTPUTS 4 STATES: state 0 (S0) = no variation state 1 (S1) = small variation state 2 (S2) = moderate variation state 3 (S3) = high variation INDICATORS Meteorological and hydrological models for vaste areas (for example FLaIR model) IND SEN 2 STATES: state 0 (S0) = no variation or not significant state 1 (S1) = significant variation CRITICALITY LEVELS ordinary criticality (level 1) moderate criticality (level 2) severe criticality (level 3)

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Levels of criticality and alert CAED State of sensors and/or models CAED decisions All INDs and SENs are S00 - no decision At least one IND is S1 and all SENs are S0 1 – activation of SOD (Sensors on demand) At least one SEN is S1 2 – to intensify the presence up to 24 hours/day At least n SENs are S1 or at least one SEN is S2 3/1 – to issue a notice of ordinary criticality (level 1) At least n SENs are S2 or at least one SEN is S3 3/2 - to issue a notice of moderate criticality (level 2) At least n SENs are S3 3/3 - to issue a notice of high or severe criticality (level 3) CCC

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Sensor network Model output

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Geological and Hydraulic Safety along Motorways and Railways EVENT AND RISK SCENARIOS Pasquale VERSACE P ROGETTO PON01_01503 S ISTEMI INTEGRATI PER IL MONITORAGGIO, L ’ EARLY WARNING E LA MITIGAZIONE DEL RISCHIO IDROGEOLOGICO LUNGO LE GRANDI VIE DI COMUNICAZIONE. D ISCUTIAMO I RISULTATI The end

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