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Geological and Hydraulic Safety along Motorways and Railways EVENT AND RISK SCENARIOS Pasquale VERSACE P ROGETTO PON01_01503 S ISTEMI INTEGRATI PER IL.

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Presentation on theme: "Geological and Hydraulic Safety along Motorways and Railways EVENT AND RISK SCENARIOS Pasquale VERSACE P ROGETTO PON01_01503 S ISTEMI INTEGRATI PER IL."— Presentation transcript:

1 Geological and Hydraulic Safety along Motorways and Railways EVENT AND RISK SCENARIOS Pasquale VERSACE P ROGETTO PON01_01503 S ISTEMI INTEGRATI PER IL MONITORAGGIO, L ’ EARLY WARNING E LA MITIGAZIONE DEL RISCHIO IDROGEOLOGICO LUNGO LE GRANDI VIE DI COMUNICAZIONE. D ISCUTIAMO I RISULTATI

2 Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate Challenges and topic for discussions ■C■C ommunication and dissemination ■S■Some regions do nothing in case of yellow level, neither send forward to municipalities ■O■Others complain of too many yellow and do not like to have 2 separate warning (flood and landslides) ■S■Some municipalities wish to receive directly warnings and not through regions ■W■What to do in the different levels? Authorities start to act only when is red level (not everybody understand that in yellow and orange level damages can occur). ■L■Lack of emergency plans and risk maps (identifying critical areas) ■C■C ommunication (experts and population) ■A■Avoid too many false alarm, wrong level: yellow  orange ■T■Too many leaders/politicians between experts and population/local authorities (developing countries vs developed countries)

3 Event scenarios Risk scenarios Levels of criticality Levels of alert INTERVENTION MODEL

4 Event scenarios Properties of expected phenomena Landslide velocity Landslide surface Landslide scarp Landslide volume Thickness Magnitude Involved material Occurrence probability Geometric index

5 LANDSLIDE VELOCITY (VEL) CLASSTYPEDESCRIPTION 1Slow (VEL1) < 5x10 -6 m/s (13 m/month); classes 1,2,3 from Cruden & Varnes (1996) 2 Moderate (VEL2) > 5x10 -6 m/s (13 m/month); class 4 from Cruden & Varnes (1996) 3Rapid (VEL3) > 5x10 -4 m/s (1,8 m/hour); class 5 from Cruden & Varnes (1996) 4 Very rapid (VEL4) > 5x10 -2 m/s (3 m/min); class 6 from Cruden & Varnes (1996) 5 Extremely rapid (VEL5) > 5 m/s; class 7 from Cruden & Varnes (1996)

6 LANDSLIDE SURFACE (SUR) CLASSTYPEDESCRIPTION 1Very small (SUR1)< 100 m 2 2Small (SUR2)< 1.000 m 2 3Medium (SUR3)< 10.000 m 2 4Large (SUR4)< 100.000 m 2 5Very large (SUR5)> 100.000 m 2 LANDSLIDE SCARP (SCA) CLASSTYPEDESCRIPTION 1Very small (SCA1)< 10 m 2Small (SCA2)< 100 m 3Medium (SCA3)< 500 m 4Large (SCA4)< 1.000 m 5Very large (SCA5)> 1.000 m

7 LANDSLIDE VOLUME (VOL) CLASSTYPEDESCRIPTION 1Extremely small (VOL1)< 500 m 3 2Very small (VOL2)< 5.000 m 3 3Small (VOL3)< 50.000 m 3 4Medium (VOL4)< 500.000 m 3 5Large (VOL5)> 500.000 m 3 THICKNESS (THI) CLASSTYPEDESCRIPTION 1Very shallow (THI1)≤ 0,5 m 2Shallow (THI2)≤ 2 m 3Medium (THI3)≤ 10 m 4Deep (THI4)≤ 30 m 5Very deep (THI5)> 30 m

8 GEOMETRIC INDEX (GEI) CLASSTYPEDESCRIPTION 1 Very small (GEI1) All SUR, SCA, VOL, THI are equal to 1 2Small (GEI2) At least a value is equal to 2 among SUR, SCA, VOL, THI 3 Medium (GEI3) At least a value is equal to 3 among SUR, SCA, VOL, THI 4Large (GEI4) At least a value is equal to 4 among SUR, SCA, VOL, THI 5 Very large (GEI5) At least a value is equal to 5 among SUR, SCA, VOL, THI

9 MAGNITUDE (MAG) CLASSTYPE 1Low (MAG1) 2Moderate (MAG2) 3High (MAG3) VEL1VEL2VEL3VEL4VEL5 GEI1MAG1 MAG2 GEI2MAG1 MAG2 MAG3 GEI3MAG1MAG2 MAG3 GEI4MAG2 MAG3 GEI5MAG2MAG3 f(GEI, VEL)

10 INVOLVED MATERIAL (IM) TYPE Mud Debris Earth Rock Mixture of components OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY (PRO) CLASSTYPEDESCRIPTION 1lowT > 100 years 2moderateT< 100 years 3highT < 20 years 4Very highT< 5 years 5=1T< 1 year

11 MAP OF EVENT SCENARIOS – level 1 Perimeter of landslide and propagation zone MAG1 MAG2 MAG3

12 MAP OF EVENT SCENARIOS – level 2 Normalized value Mud Debris Earth Mixture of components GEI VELMAG PRO

13 MAP OF EVENT SCENARIOS – level 3 Mud Debris Earth Mixture of components Normalized value PRO MAG VEL GEI SUR VOLTHISCA

14 MAP OF EVENT SCENARIOS – level 3

15 Risk scenarios

16

17 A.Mud and/or debris movements which could induce a friction reduction and facilitate slips

18 Risk scenarios B.Road subsidence induced by landslides that could drag or drop vehicles

19 Risk scenarios C.Falls of significant volumes and/or boulders that could crush or cover vehicles and constitute an obstacle for others vehicles

20 Risk scenarios A B C a.hydraulic infrastructures and/or barriers b.only emergency lane c.lane d.fast lane e.fast lane of the opposite carriageway f.lane of the opposite carriageway 18 risk scenarios

21 Risk scenarios Up Down AaAbAc

22 AfAeAd Risk scenarios Up Down

23 CdBdAd Risk scenarios Up Down

24 Risk scenarios

25

26 Up Down CbCcCdCaCeCf Risk scenarios

27

28

29 Levels of criticality and alert SENSORS MODEL OUTPUTS 4 STATES: state 0 (S0) = no variation state 1 (S1) = small variation state 2 (S2) = moderate variation state 3 (S3) = high variation INDICATORS Meteorological and hydrological models for vaste areas (for example FLaIR model) IND SEN 2 STATES: state 0 (S0) = no variation or not significant state 1 (S1) = significant variation CAED

30 Example SUSHI Model FS (t = t 0 )

31 Example FS t = t 0 t = t 1 t = t 2 Scenario 11,261,541,67 Scenario 21,261,111,05 Scenario 31,261,331,42 …1,261,481,15 Scenario N1,261,421,13 SUSHI Model

32 FS t = t 0 t = t 1 t = t 2 Scenario 11,261,541,67 Scenario 21,261,111,05 Scenario 31,261,331,42 …1,261,481,15 Scenario N1,261,421,13 t = t 0 t = t 1 t = t 2 B S0 G S1S0 A S2S1S0 R S3S2S1 t = t 0 t = t 1 t = t 2 Scenario 1S1S0 Scenario 2S1 Scenario 3S1S0 …S1S0 Scenario NS1S0 t = t 0 t = t 1 t = t 2 S1 4 STATES: State 0 (S0) = no variation state 1 (S1) = small variation state 2 (S2) = moderate variation state 3 (S3) = high variation Example

33 RADAR TYPE DescriptionClass 1Class 2Class 3 ANumber of Strips 1 strip (A1) 2-3 strips (A2) > 3 strips (A3) B Signal Intensity, indicating the part of strip involved by a movement level 1 (B1) level 2 (B2) C  M resolution <  M (C1) < 2  M (C2) A1A2A3 B1A1’A2’A3’ B2A2’A3’ C1C2 A1’S1S2 A2’S2S3 A3’S3

34 ExampleSCATTEROMETER TYPEDescriptionClass 1Class 2Class 3 ANumber of Strips1 strip2 strips≥ 3 strips B  M resolution<  M< 2  M< 3  M A1A2A3 B1S1S2S3 B2S2S3 B3S3

35 Levels of criticality and alert SENSORS MODEL OUTPUTS 4 STATES: state 0 (S0) = no variation state 1 (S1) = small variation state 2 (S2) = moderate variation state 3 (S3) = high variation INDICATORS Meteorological and hydrological models for vaste areas (for example FLaIR model) IND SEN 2 STATES: state 0 (S0) = no variation or not significant state 1 (S1) = significant variation CRITICALITY LEVELS ordinary criticality (level 1) moderate criticality (level 2) severe criticality (level 3)

36 Levels of criticality and alert CAED State of sensors and/or models CAED decisions All INDs and SENs are S00 - no decision At least one IND is S1 and all SENs are S0 1 – activation of SOD (Sensors on demand) At least one SEN is S1 2 – to intensify the presence up to 24 hours/day At least n SENs are S1 or at least one SEN is S2 3/1 – to issue a notice of ordinary criticality (level 1) At least n SENs are S2 or at least one SEN is S3 3/2 - to issue a notice of moderate criticality (level 2) At least n SENs are S3 3/3 - to issue a notice of high or severe criticality (level 3) CCC

37 Sensor network Model output

38 Geological and Hydraulic Safety along Motorways and Railways EVENT AND RISK SCENARIOS Pasquale VERSACE P ROGETTO PON01_01503 S ISTEMI INTEGRATI PER IL MONITORAGGIO, L ’ EARLY WARNING E LA MITIGAZIONE DEL RISCHIO IDROGEOLOGICO LUNGO LE GRANDI VIE DI COMUNICAZIONE. D ISCUTIAMO I RISULTATI The end


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