3 Motivation & Problem (1) Corporate America spends more than $275 billion each year on approximately 200,000 application software projects. Many of these will fail, but not for lack of money or technology; most will fail for lack of skilled project management. (Standish Group, CHAOS Chronicles 2001) MSL Software, a Spanish company, had been contract by IBM to develop all the software need to manage the result system for the Sydney 2000 Olympic games. 37 information systems + integration and communications elements are need.
4 Motivation & Problem (2) Complex development project with high time constrain and requirements complexity. We need a project structure with an activity network to guide the project And of course, we need other elements; people, technology, tools, etc…
5 Methodology Steps - Objective 1.Drive the construction of a complete activity network with schedule and effort estimations 2.Understand the estimation base on uncertainties (probability distributions) 3.Analyze the network to understand the sensible points or possible critical paths
6 Methodology Steps - Network The problem is decompose in small sub-products development project, as we do when we design a system For each sub-product, development and support process are used For each sub-product, CocomoII is used For each sub-product, QA and Risk are model The network is build using integration-products that are sub-products to be compose to create the end product
7 Decomposition & Composition RS CM QA Inf HR Ext PO Sub-Product 1 E:5.87S:6.10 Sub-Product 1 E:5.87S:6.10 Int Doc Risk PO T CM QA Inf HR Ext Int Doc Risk PO C CMQA Inf HR Ext Int Doc Risk PO Integration E:4.21S:10.41 Integration E:4.21S:10.41 Risk 0 Development phases RS: Requirements A: Analysis D: Design C: Construction T: Testing
8 Activity Network
9 Simulation Once all of the elements of the A 3 model are constructed, simulations are carried out using the Monte Carlo technique which permits the evaluation on n repetitions of the probability distributions derived from the estimation process, and the relations between products in terms of effort and costs.
10 Analysis Correlations and Sensibilities are compute in each activity base on precedent activities
11 MSL Olympic Development (1)
12 MSL Olympic Development (2)
13 MSL Advantage The project has a detail activity network Effort distribution is understand by development phases Possible delays are estimate and mitigation plan was build Sensible points are identify and manage
14 Conclusion Helps Software Project Design Helps Build the Project Structure Underway Project Control Project Simulation Project Visualization Mechanism