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Inspiraling Compact Objects: Detection Expectations Vicky Kalogera Physics & Astronomy Dept.

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Presentation on theme: "Inspiraling Compact Objects: Detection Expectations Vicky Kalogera Physics & Astronomy Dept."— Presentation transcript:

1 Inspiraling Compact Objects: Detection Expectations Vicky Kalogera Physics & Astronomy Dept

2 In this talk : In this talk : Gravitational Waves and Double Neutron Stars Gravitational Waves and Double Neutron Stars Meet PSR J0737-3039: Meet PSR J0737-3039: a new strongly relativistic binary pulsar a new strongly relativistic binary pulsar Inspiral Event Rates for Inspiral Event Rates for NS-NS, BH-NS, BH-BH NS-NS, BH-NS, BH-BH Precessing Binaries: astrophysical expectations Precessing Binaries: astrophysical expectations

3 Double Neutron Star Inspiral Do they exist ? YES! First known NS -NS: radio pulsar PSR B1913+16 What kind of signal ? inspiral chirp GW emission causes orbital shrinkage leading to higher GW frequency and amplitude orbital decay PSR B1913+16 Weisberg & Taylor 03

4 Sensitivity to coalescing binaries What is the expected detection rate out to D max ? Scaling up from the Galactic rate detection rate ~ r 3 strength ~ 1/r D max for each signal sets limits on the possible detection rate

5 Inspiral Rates for the Milky Way Theoretical Estimates Based on models of binary evolution until binary compact objects form. for NS -NS, BH -NS, and BH -BH Empirical Estimates Based on radio pulsar properties and survey selection effects. for NS -NS only

6 Properties of known coalescing DNS pulsars B1913+16 B1534+12 2127+11C M15 (NGC 7078) Galactic Disk pulsars J0737-3039 Burgay et al. 2003

7 Properties of known coalescing DNS pulsars B1913+16 59.03 8.6x10 -18 270 B1534+12 37.90 2.5x10 -18 9 J0737-3039 22.70 2.4x10 -18 28 2127+11C 30.5 5.0x10 -18 670 M15 (NGC 7078) Galactic Disk pulsars P s (ms) (ss -1 ) L 400 PsPs. Burgay et al. 2003

8 Properties of known coalescing DNS pulsars B1913+16 59.03 8.6x10 -18 270 22.8 B1534+12 37.90 2.4x10 -18 9 9.7 J0737-3039 22.70 2.4x10 -18 340 7.4 2127+11C 30.5 5.0x10 -18 670 12.5 M15 (NGC 7078) Galactic Disk pulsars P s (ms) (ss -1 ) L 400 B 9 (G) PsPs. Burgay et al. 2003

9 Properties of known coalescing DNS pulsars B1913+16 59.03 8.6x10 -18 270 22.8 7.3 B1534+12 37.90 2.4x10 -18 9 9.7 0.5 J0737-3039 22.70 2.4x10 -18 28 7.4 0.6 2127+11C 30.5 5.0x10 -18 67 12.5 10.6 M15 (NGC 7078) Galactic Disk pulsars P s (ms) (ss -1 ) L 400 B 9 (G) d(kpc) PsPs. Burgay et al. 2003

10 Properties of known coalescing DNS pulsars M15 (NGC 7078) Galactic Disk pulsars B1913+16 59.03 8.6x10 -18 7.8 B1534+12 37.90 2.4x10 -18 10.0 J0737-3039 22.70 2.4x10 -18 2.4 P s (ms) (ss -1 ) P orb (hr) PsPs. 2127+11C 30.5 5.0x10 -18 8.0 Burgay et al. 2003

11 Properties of known coalescing DNS pulsars M15 (NGC 7078) Galactic Disk pulsars B1913+16 59.03 8.6x10 -18 7.8 0.61 B1534+12 37.90 2.4x10 -18 10.0 0.27 J0737-3039 22.70 2.4x10 -18 2.5 0.09 P s (ms) (ss -1 ) P orb (hr) e PsPs. 2127+11C 30.5 5.0x10 -18 8.0 0.68 Burgay et al. 2003

12 Properties of known coalescing DNS pulsars M15 (NGC 7078) Galactic Disk pulsars B1913+16 59.03 8.6x10 -18 7.8 0.61 2.8 (1.39) B1534+12 37.90 2.4x10 -18 10.0 0.27 2.7 (1.35) J0737-3039 22.70 2.4x10 -18 2.5 0.09 2.6 (1.24) P s (ms) (ss -1 ) P orb (hr) e M tot ( ) PsPs. MoMo 2127+11C 30.5 5.0x10 -18 8.0 0.68 2.7 (1.36) Burgay et al. 2003

13 Properties of known coalescing DNS pulsars B1913+16 110 65 300 4º.23 B1534+12 250 190 2700 1º.75 J0737-3039 160 100 85 16º.9 2127+11C 96 60 220 4º.46 M15 (NGC 7078) Galactic Disk pulsars  c (Myr)  sd (Myr)  mrg (Myr) (yr -1 )  · Burgay et al. 2003

14 Radio Pulsars in NS-NS binaries NS-NS Merger Rate Estimates Use of observed sample and models for PSR survey selection effects: estimates of total NS- NS number combined with lifetime estimates (Narayan et al. '91; Phinney '91) Dominant sources of rate estimate uncertainties identified: (VK, Narayan, Spergel, Taylor '01) small - number observed sample (2 NS - NS in Galactic field) PSR population dominated by faint objects Robust lower limit for the MW (10 -6 per yr) Upward correction factor for faint PSRs: ~ 1 - 500 X 3

15 small-N sample is: > assumed to be representative of the Galactic population > dominated by bright pulsars, detectable to large distances total pulsar number is underestimated pulsar luminosity function: ~ L -2 i.e., dominated by faint, hard-to-detect pulsars NGNG N est median 25% (VK, Narayan, Spergel, Taylor '01)

16 Radio Pulsars in NS-NS binaries NS-NS Merger Rate Estimates (Kim, VK, Lorimer 2002) It is possible to assign statistical significance to NS-NS rate estimates with Monte Carlo simulations Bayesian analysis developed to derive the probability density of NS-NS inspiral rate Small number bias and selection effects for faint pulsars are implicitly included in our method.

17 Statistical Method pulse and orbital properties similar to each of the observed DNS 1.Identify sub-populations of PSRs with pulse and orbital properties similar to each of the observed DNS Model each sub-population in the Galaxy with Monte-Carlo generations Luminosity distribution  Luminosity distribution Spatial distribution  Spatial distribution power-law: f(L)  L -p, L min < L (L min : cut-off luminosity) 2. Pulsar-survey simulation  consider selection effects of all pulsar surveys  consider selection effects of all pulsar surveys  generate ``observed’’ samples  generate ``observed’’ samples

18 fill a model galaxy with N tot pulsars count the number of pulsars observed (N obs ) Earth Statistical Method 3. Derive rate estimate probability distribution P(R)

19 Statistical Analysis given total number of For a given total number of pulsars pulsars, N obs follows a Poisson distribution. best-fit We calculate the best-fit value of P(1; N tot ) value of as a function of N tot and the probability P(1; N tot ) We use Bayes ’ theorem to calculate P(N tot ) and finally P(R) P(N obs ) for PSR B1913+16

20 Results: P(R tot ) most probable rate R peak statistical confidence levels expected GW detection rates

21 Current Rate Predictions 3 NS-NS : a factor of 6-7 rate increase Initial LIGO Adv. LIGO per 1000 yr per yr ref model: peak 75 400 95% 15 - 275 80 - 1500 Burgay et al. 2003, Nature, 426, 531 VK et al. 2004, ApJ Letters, in press opt model: peak 20 1000 95% 35 - 700 200 - 3700

22 Results: R peak vs model parameters

23 Current expectations for LIGO II (LIGO I) detection rates of inspiral events NS -NS BH -NS BH -BH D max 350 700 1500 (Mpc) (20) (40) (100) R det 5 - 3700 1.5 -1500 15 -10,000 (1/yr) (10 -3 - 0.7) (3x10 -4 -0.3) (4x10 -3 -3) from population synthesis Use empirical NS-NS rates: constrain pop syn models > BH inspiral rates

24 What do/will learn from PSR J0737-3039 ? Inspiral detection rates as high as 1 per 1.5 yr (at 95% C.L.) are possible for initial LIGO ! Detection rates in the range 20-1000 per yr are most probable for advanced LIGO VK, Kim, Lorimer, et al. 2004, ApJ Letters, in press First double pulsar with eclipses ! First double pulsar with eclipses ! Lyne et al. 2004, Science, in press constraints on magnetic field and spin orientation pulsar magnetospheres pulsar magnetospheres measurement of new relativistic effects ? measurement of new relativistic effects ? NS #2 progenitor is constrained as less massive than ~4.7 M solar NS #2 kick is constrained to be in excess of 60 km/s and its most probable value is 150 km/s Willems & VK 2003, ApJ Letters, submitted Better confirmation of GR

25 Parkes MultiBeam survey and acceleration searches Assuming that acceleration searches can perfectly correct for any pulse Doppler smearing due to orbital motion… How many coalescing DNS pulsars would we expect the PMB survey to detect ? VK, Kim et al. 2003 PMB N obs = 3.6 N.B. Not every new coalescing DNS pulsar will significantly increase the DNS rates …

26 Challenges in the near future... Technical: achieve target noise level Data analysis: optimal methods for signal retrieval detection of inspiral signal requires: template waveforms and matched filtering techniques

27 Precession and Inspiral Waveforms Compact object binaries can precess if spins are of significant magnitude and misaligned with respect to the orbital angular momentum. Precession can modify inspiral waveforms and decrease the detection efficiency of standard non-precession searches. Precession effects are more important for binaries of high mass ratios (BH-NS) and with spin tilt angles of the massive object in excess of ~30 °. (Apostolatos 95)

28 Q: What is the origin of spin tilt angles in compact object binaries ? Mass transfer episodes in binaries tend to align spin and orbital angular momentum vectors. BH SN + NS kick SN + NS kick BH NS Asymmetric supernova explosions can tilt the orbital plane relative to the spin of the non-exploding star.

29 Q: What are the expected spin tilt angles ? BH-NS binaries are expected to have significant spin tilt angles 10 M o BH 1.4 M o NS VK 2000 BH-NS Grandclement et al. 2003 > model BH-NS progenitors and SN kick effects

30 Grandclement, VK, Vecchio 2002 Grandclement & VK 2003 Grandclement, Ihm, VK, Belczynski 2003 Buonanno et al. 2003 Pan et al. 2003 with non-precessing templates: detection rate decreases R det decrease depends on spin magnitude and tilt angle: cos(spin tilt angle) Maximum BH spin cos(spin tilt angle) templates that can mimic the precession effects can increase the detection rate: Precessing inspiral binaries For a 10-1.4 Mo BH-NS binary

31 3 BH spin magnitude BH-NS Rate drop expected from astrophysical predictions for spin tilts in BH-NS binaries Grandclement, Ihm, VK, Belczynski 2003 rate drop by 20-30% BH-NS Expected rates: BH-NS 1.5 -1500 per yr 3x10 -4 -0.3 BH-BH 15 -10,000 per yr 4x10 -3 -3

32 In the near and distant future... Initial LIGO 3 NS-NS ---> detection possible BH-BH ---> possible detection too Advanced LIGO expected to detect compact object inspiral as well as NS or BH birth events, pulsars, stochastic background past experience from EM: there will be surprises! Laser Interferometry in space: LISA sources at lower frequencies supermassive black holes and background of wide binaries


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