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You never leave a recession with the same technology as you enter it!! Quote; Moore of Intel in 1984 A look at what is coming by Andy Mulholland CTO.

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Presentation on theme: "You never leave a recession with the same technology as you enter it!! Quote; Moore of Intel in 1984 A look at what is coming by Andy Mulholland CTO."— Presentation transcript:

1 You never leave a recession with the same technology as you enter it!! Quote; Moore of Intel in 1984 A look at what is coming by Andy Mulholland CTO

2 How to Foresee and Manage the Future!

3 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved Predicting the Future or Building the Future?  To shape new markets by transforming raw technology into business advantage delivered through products and services  To input technology market direction into Business Strategy planning  To gain mind share in the technology community  To provide market leading thinking that permits high value client engagement  To differentiate with a product but not leave the market behind The co development process Raw Technology Potential Business Value Potential Business Value Tech Products Actual Bus Solutions Actual Bus Solutions Technology Partner CGEY Business Partner Mutual Market Success By creating a new market Mutual Market Success By creating a new market Feature/Benefits Established Definition of ‘use Cases’ to establish Value proposition ‘Go to market’ Proposition and delivery The co development process Raw Technology Potential Business Value Potential Business Value Tech Products Actual Bus Solutions Actual Bus Solutions Technology Partner CGEY Business Partner Mutual Market Success By creating a new market Introduction of New technology Feature/Benefits Established Definition of ‘use Cases’ to establish Value proposition ‘Go to market’ Proposition and delivery Capability Features Benefits Standard

4 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved Managing Technology Life Cycles Margin Revenue Mindshare Marketshare Key Features Market Stage EMERGING Grab the Market INNOVATION Strategic Investment Next wave of technologies we want to lead Expected to move to “global specialization” in 12 months High Revenue, Decreasing Margin Global drive for market share growth and profitability Possess delivery capabilities, strong credentials High margin, global opportunity Aspire to become famous Grab market share Productivity and reuse frameworks begin to mature VOLUME Industrialized Profit GLOBAL SPECIALIZATION Profitable Growth Invest ahead of the curve to dominate on the market later

5 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved Example; Technology Integration Solutions InnovationEmergingHigh GrowthMain StreamMature Virtual Enterprise Grid computing Loosely coupled Messaging Transaction management Maturity Data Integration Transformation & Routing Adapters Connectors Legacy Integration Human Workflow Business Intelligence Legacy rejuvenation Application integration Business process management Collaborative commerce Peer to Peer Mobile & wireless Pervasive Computing Web Services IBM WSMQ dominates messaging market Tibco RV dominates pub/sub market Vendor coverage significant. Gartner covers 29 in magic quadrant Integration and DBMS vendors Open and proprietary products Leaders: IBM, Tibco, webMethods SeeBeyond, Microsoft Market consolidation likely over next 2 yrs Sector leaders with specific technical solutions (e.g. Mercator in finance) Areas where clients are only beginning to innovate. Few clear leaders: IBM, Tibco, SeeBeyond, webMethods. Vendors investing heavily in R&D. MessagingData Integration Business Process Management Fully Connected

6 So what’s hot NOW and Happening!

7 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved The Good News is there is a Market! Embedded Software Infrastructure Consolidation Service Delivery Data to Content ERP tail EAI Web All Double Digit Growth Totalling $80 billion

8 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved The Path of Technology Clients Systems Functions Protocols Network TCP/IPIPv4IPv6 FTP SMTP Xwin Telenet RPC/XDR RMI/HOP LDAP X509 HTTP SOAP UDDI JINI JavaSpaces JXTA Client Server N Tier Browser Applications Web Services Grid Services File TransferTransaction Content Interaction Pro Activity P2P Computers PCs Phones PDAs Games Telematics Telemetry An Internet Of Computers A Web Of PCs An Internet Of Embedded Processes An Internet Of Devices & Services

9 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved Between the Technology ‘S’ curves Productivity Efficiency Inside the Firewall Efficiency Outside the Firewall Quality Circles MRP Re-engineering ERP SCM CRM e-business B2B We are here ? Uncertainty

10 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved The Market Map – Architecture is the Game Core Services Stable Differentiation Internal Systems Slow to change In-depth capabilities Around applications connected by ERP/EAI Market Ecosystem Agility for change External Systems Quick to change processes providing Business services bridging capabilities To market opportunities ‘e’ Services Adaptive to Extreme Volatility Network based Internet Services using connectivity To produce anyone to Anything Interactivity Other Enterprises An Adaptive Enterprise

11 And where are we going in 200x

12 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved And Three Emerging Markets Service Architectures Service Architectures Agent Based Software Agent Based Software Mobility

13 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved Mobility – some facts  PC Sales are slowing  Evolutionary, no Revolutionary Killer App visable  Mobile Phone sales are still rising globally – 400 million units in 2002  More Mobile lines than fixed lines globally  More People SMS text each day than use the Internet  A ‘Services’ architecture and increasingly not dependant on a future around 3G  Around 20 million Video phones in 2002  PDA sales will be around 10 million units

14 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved Old Word - New Meaning; Mobility Application Extension Taking the desk top to the user Closed Network Proximity Based Services via (WiFi) or Bluetooth Public telecom Network Services Based on Telecom Architectures Wireless LansMobile Networks Wired Lans Characteristics and architecture is that of the IT based LAN Services and sessions are based upon existing LAN technologies; Competitors are therefore Cisco, IBM, Oracle, Microsoft, etc Limitations include NO mobility, no always on capability, and most of all closed user networks etc Characteristics and architecture is that of the IT based LAN Services and sessions are based upon existing LAN technologies; Competitors are therefore Cisco, IBM, Oracle, Microsoft, etc Limitations include NO mobility, no always on capability, and most of all closed user networks etc Characteristics and architecture is based on Telecom standards with service provision according to Telco Operators model Nokia leads a consortium of 12 industry player plus OMA Advantages include any to any open public networks, unique device identification, always on session maintenance etc Characteristics and architecture is based on Telecom standards with service provision according to Telco Operators model Nokia leads a consortium of 12 industry player plus OMA Advantages include any to any open public networks, unique device identification, always on session maintenance etc Complex spoofing gateway Required to enable communication Simple presentation level gateway Is all that’s needed

15 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved What can it do for me? 1) Flight delayed by 20 minutes 2) Check in queue 10 minutes 3) Train unknown incident ? 4) Road M4 speeds 20mph 5) AirBus on time Recommend taking 4.15pm AirBus from Victoria Do you want seat booked? 8) = Yes9) = No 0) return to previous screen

16 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved Business Intelligence & Game Theory 1) Flight delayed by 20 minutes 2) Check in queue 10 minutes 3) Train unknown incident ? 4) Road M4 speeds 20mph 5) AirBus on time Recommend taking 4.15pm AirBus from Victoria Do you want seat booked? 8) = Yes9) = No 0) return to previous screen Questions? A) If a company knows it is the ‘only’ operator able to fulfil this requirement what is it’s response? 1) Put more buses on the road to cover extra demand 2) Sell the seats for more money,ie. the market value 3) Would you want to differentiate existing customers B) If the company is losing business what is it’s response 1) Price cutting 2) Adding Value Questions? A) If a company knows it is the ‘only’ operator able to fulfil this requirement what is it’s response? 1) Put more buses on the road to cover extra demand 2) Sell the seats for more money,ie. the market value 3) Would you want to differentiate existing customers B) If the company is losing business what is it’s response 1) Price cutting 2) Adding Value

17 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved The ‘Boundaryless’ Grid The Vision and the final Goal

18 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved Splitting up the concepts of ‘Grid’, ‘Utility Computing’, or ‘Service Architecture’ Grid Utility Architecture Users Services Architecture Users and Devices Applications Processors & Storage

19 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved The Principle of ‘Services’, and the role of ‘Agents’ Software Application Software Application Software Application Software Application Software Application Internet and World Wide Web ……. Locator Calendar Agent Discovered Services Payment AuthorisationIdentity Software Written to Be a Service Element Software Written to Be a Common

20 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved Putting it all Together! Wired Public Infrastructure Global Motors Dealers, Etc Virtual Private On Public Network Customers, Cars, Embedded Objects Public Wireless A series of new Standards & Capabilities Local Wireless Closed systems for Proximity signalling Service Management of end to end processes Corporate Network Federation Service Architecture Collaboration Web Services

21 © 2002 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young - All right reserved Summary; Its a new world, its complicated to current technology but using new technology, ICT (information and communication technology)...  Enterprise Architecture based on process is evolving to Ecosystem architecture based on services  Services are abstractions of:  Process  People  ICT  Data  Service Architecture revolves around 4 key sub- architectures  Organisation  Marketplace  User  Device  Web Services are a key service type within this model and can be deployed to support one or more layers of a holistic Services Architecture  The key to deploying service based architectures within an enterprise an its ecosystem is governance  Enables services to interpret the context of collaborations  Commitments (contracts) negotiated between services  Security and Identity management  Manages Quality of Service (QoS)  QoS promotes mutually beneficial collaboration between parties  QoS provides the mechanism for determining the value of discrete collaborations  Biggest single issue in the market is the granularity of Web services  There is often little or no correlation between a Web Service and Business Value  Inconsistent granularity demonstrates the immaturity of the market and a lack of understanding of the bigger picture Organisation Organisation Marketplace Marketplace Device Device User User


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