Percentage of Ownership 100 80 60 40 20 0 Electricity (1873) Telephone (1876) Automobile (1886) Television (1926) Radio (1905) VCR (1952) Microwave (1953) PC (1975) Internet (1975) 10080604020120 Years Since Introduction
2G 10 9 Innovators WWW 33 Kbps Public Internet 1G 10 4 Pioneers Email, FTP 9.6 Kbps Gov. Internet 3G 10 38 EveryOne Everything Wireless, Streaming Media, Peer-2-Peer 1 Mbps + Global Internet DIAL-UP INTERNET ALWAYS-ON NCP IPv4???
Local Area Network (~50m) Personal Area Network (~20m) Wide Area Network (~10km) 4G Combined Devices And Services Digital DECT, PHS Infra Red Wideband WLAN Bluetooth Analog CT1 “wire” 3G WCDMA, EDGE CDMA2000 2G GSM, PDC TDMA, CDMA 1G AMPS NMT TACS
Voice Email VoiceMail Telemetry IPsensors Alarm Notifications Emerging Growing Maturing Voice Control Fax Computer TeIephony Integration Home Banking Next Generation Ubiquity Peer-2-Peer Machine Man ManMachine
Telecom Industry main frames desk top computing PC-LAN PC-WAN Internet electronic publishing and entertainment Computer Industry Media Industry The Converged Industry The Converged Industry Wireline mobility mobile/mobile PSTN ISDN PC/Servers New Telecoms Industry New Telecoms Industry 3G/mobile Internet Carrier class MMM WWW WAP NEW battle ground
Telecom Industry main frames desk top computing PC-LAN PC-WAN Internet electronic publishing and entertainment Computer Industry Media Industry The Converging Industry The Converging Industry Wireline mobility mobile/mobile PSTN ISDN PC/Servers New Telecoms Industry New Telecoms Industry 3G/mobile Internet Carrier class MMM WWW WAP NEXT battle ground P2P Applications White Goods Industry Car, Airlines Industry
Watch with a sense of humour Some pictures can be shocking!
The IETF was divided over the Future of the Internet ! Garage Mentality Band-Aids & Short-term Fixes! The Packet Switching Technology is Suffering! Becoming Permanent Fixes! Stovepipe Syndrome!
NAT EXPERTS created the NAT Roulette DIAL Digital Divide Instead of Digital Ubiquity
From Client / Server Model to Server Client Peer-2-Peer Species work better together!
Imagine IPv4 had 128 bit Address Space www The WEB would have not been successful! Imagine NATs were Introduced in 1991 No second chance to fix the Internet!
’’Dual Stack – Will it Scale ” IPv4IPv6 ’’Tunneling ”
‘ Mobility - as long as you are connected ” Where is my IPv4 Addr?
Can you do 3 things in ONE GO? e2e Security Mobility e2e Communication
The Internet Has Met Its Enemy! It‘s called QoS !
Moat / Main Gate Outer Perimeter Controlling Castle Access Keep (Last Building in Castle to Fall) Inner Perimeter Stronghold, Higher Walls produce containment area Between Inner / Outer Perimeters The Internet has met its Serious Enemies They are called Security, Privacy, Viruses, Hackers and Governments!
The Internet has met other Serious Enemies The Internet is still a Research Network!
"The Internet has met its enemy, and its name is QoS" USA 54% EU, JP 28% UNEVEN DIFFUSION OF TECHNOLOGY ROW < 3% WORLD 8 % 8 % PHONE NETWORK: 1.2 Billion -> 20% INTERNET USERS: 0.5 Billion -> 8% INTERNET HOSTS: 150 M Hosts -> 2% NO e2e : NOBODY KNOWS !
Uneven Distribution of IPv4 Address Space 74% 17% 9%
G. Moor’s law: P = P 2 G. Gilder’s law: B =B 3 R. Metcalfe’s law: V =V 2 Internet Growth Laws IP law: IPv6 =IPv4 n
100% IPv6 readiness by 2005 Prime Mister of Japan Yoshiro Mori Korean MIC followed Japan Feb 23, 2001 The 7th Japan-China Regular Bilateral Consultation Dec 2001
The European Commission Formed an IPv6 Task Force in March 2001 Commissioner Erkki Liikanen Recommendations Reports Jan 2002 www.ipv6tf.org 6NET & Euro6IX Large- Scale Testbeds 34 M€. EuroChina 2002: IPv6 – Wireless Clear roadmap towards IPv6 !
Recycling IP Addresses Limited Noticeable Fog Generalised use of NAPT, RSIP? IPv6 Deployment Address Transparency IPsec FOG Issues Exhaustion NAT-over-NAT BrokenPermanet Thick Fog NATs between even ISPs Successful Restored e-2-e e-2-e works Clears! Intranet, Proxies & Firewalls may remain Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Complete Failure
Early conclusion + Wireless Internet 2002 is still a baby! Internet Growth 100 IP Adds/person! + Always-On + Info Soft Appliances
The Lobster Syndrom! At the At thebeginning, it feels Comfortable! Comfortable! The Yv4 Impact!
IPv4 The New Internet 196920002001 2002 20032005 IP Evolution 1 billion + Connected Devices 100m NCP 1983