12/07/41 09/11/01 Memory Test 120741091101 Joshua Foer, Moonwalking with Einstein: The Art and Science of Remembering Everything (2011)
12/07/41 09/11/01 Memory Test Joshua Foer, Moonwalking with Einstein: The Art and Science of Remembering Everything (2011)
Alekhine’s Advice “Don’t look for the best move; look for the best plan and the moves that accomplish those goals.”
S Asd KTsd,Asd S,KTsd,Asd Total Infected Ro ~ 2.4, Diagnosis 80%, Isolation 90%, KTsd 60%, Asd 50%, Q90%
Final Network of Infected Adults (black), Children (red), Teens (blue), Seniors (green)
To ChildrenTo TeenagersTo AdultsTo SeniorsTotal From From Children21.4 3.017.41.643.4 From Teenagers 2.410.4 8.50.721.9 From Adults 4.6 126.96.36.1991.8 From Seniors 0.2 0.1 0.81.7 2.8 Total To28.616.649.05.7 Children/Teenagers 29% Adults 59% Seniors 12% Demographics Glass, RJ, et al. Local mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza. NISAC, SAND Number: 2005-7955J School Household Workplace Likely sites of transmission Who Infects Who?
Attack Rate by R 0 for each Model of the Six Scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6
Antiviral Courses by R 0 for each Model of the Six Scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6
Pandemic Trajectory SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE I II III Surveillance Mitigation Immunization SpringSummerFall
Black Swans Rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno
Implementation Threshold Analysis Halloran ME, et al. Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States. PNAS 2008;105:4639-4644.
Hatchett RJ, et al. Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic. PNAS 2007;104:7582. 1918 Death Rates
1918 Historical Analysis Interventions Making influenza a reportable disease Emergency declaration Strict isolation policies Quarantine of households School closure Church closure Theater / dance hall closure Staggered business hours Mask ordinances No crowding on streetcars Private funerals Ban on door-to-door sales Workplace interventions Protective sequestration of children Ban on public gatherings No crowding rule in public places Implementation of “snow days” ** * * * * = p<0.05** = p<0.01 * Hatchett RJ, et al. Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic. PNAS 2007;104:7582.
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