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Orbis Tertius Richard J. Hatchett, MD Institute on Systems Science and Health May 24, 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "Orbis Tertius Richard J. Hatchett, MD Institute on Systems Science and Health May 24, 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 Orbis Tertius Richard J. Hatchett, MD Institute on Systems Science and Health May 24, 2011

2 Models as Representations S(t) S’(t) World Model P S’(t) = P[S(t)] Holland JH et al. (1986) P: {World}  {Model} d1d1 d3d3 d2d2 d 1 = 0, small = 1, large d 2 = 0, uniform = 1, striped d 3 = 0, slow-moving = 1, fast-moving 011 [wasplike] 000 small, striped, fast-moving large, striped, fast-moving small, uniform, slow-moving 111 [tigerlike]

3 Models as Representations S(t) S(t + 1) S’(t) S’(t + 1) World Model World T P T’ P S’(t) = P[S(t)]S’(t + 1) = P[S(t + 1)] Holland JH et al. (1986)

4 Models as Representations S(t) S(t + 1) S’(t) S’(t + 1) World Model World T P T’ P S’(t) = P[S(t)]S’(t + 1) = P[S(t + 1)] T’P[S(t)] = S’(t + 1) = PT[S(t)] Holland JH et al. (1986)

5 Models as Maps

6 Lancaster Gate Notting Hill Gate Queensway Baywater Paddington

7 Models as Representations S(t + 1) World S 1 ’(t + 1) Level 1 S 1 ’(t) Level 1 S(t) World P1P1 T1’T1’ Holland JH et al. (1986) T P1P1 S 2 ’(t) Level 2 S 2 ’(t + 1) Level 2 T2’T2’ P2P2 P2P2

8 Jorge Luis Borges

9 Tlön, Uqbar, Orbis Tertius

10 Decision Trees Full Tree Gerd Gigerenzer, Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious (Penguin Books, 2007)

11 Decision Trees Fast and Frugal Tree Gerd Gigerenzer, Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious (Penguin Books, 2007)

12 Memory Test

13 Sicilian Najdorf, English Attack 1 e4 c5 2 Nf3 d6 3 d4 cxd4 4 Nxd4 Nf6 5 Nc3 a6 6 Be3 e5 7 Nb3 Be6 8 f3

14 12/07/41 09/11/01 Memory Test Joshua Foer, Moonwalking with Einstein: The Art and Science of Remembering Everything (2011)

15 12/07/41 09/11/01 Memory Test Joshua Foer, Moonwalking with Einstein: The Art and Science of Remembering Everything (2011)

16 Alekhine’s Advice “Don’t look for the best move; look for the best plan and the moves that accomplish those goals.”

17 S Asd KTsd,Asd S,KTsd,Asd Total Infected Ro ~ 2.4, Diagnosis 80%, Isolation 90%, KTsd 60%, Asd 50%, Q90%

18 Final Network of Infected Adults (black), Children (red), Teens (blue), Seniors (green)

19 To ChildrenTo TeenagersTo AdultsTo SeniorsTotal From From Children From Teenagers From Adults From Seniors Total To Children/Teenagers 29% Adults 59% Seniors 12% Demographics Glass, RJ, et al. Local mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza. NISAC, SAND Number: J School Household Workplace Likely sites of transmission Who Infects Who?

20 Attack Rate by R 0 for each Model of the Six Scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6

21 Antiviral Courses by R 0 for each Model of the Six Scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6

22 Pandemic Trajectory SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE I II III Surveillance Mitigation Immunization SpringSummerFall

23 Black Swans Rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno

24 Black Swans

25 P 1  TT  EE  P 2 Popper’s Epistemology

26 Implementation Threshold Analysis Halloran ME, et al. Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States. PNAS 2008;105:

27 Hatchett RJ, et al. Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic. PNAS 2007;104: Death Rates

28 1918 Historical Analysis Interventions Making influenza a reportable disease Emergency declaration Strict isolation policies Quarantine of households School closure Church closure Theater / dance hall closure Staggered business hours Mask ordinances No crowding on streetcars Private funerals Ban on door-to-door sales Workplace interventions Protective sequestration of children Ban on public gatherings No crowding rule in public places Implementation of “snow days” ** * * * * = p<0.05** = p<0.01 * Hatchett RJ, et al. Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic. PNAS 2007;104:7582.

29 Borges JL. Collected Fictions (New York, 1998). Borges JL. Labyrinths: Selected Stories & Other Writings (New York, 1964). Chase WG, Simon HA. Perception in Chess. Cognitive Psychology 1973;4: De Firmian N. Modern Chess Openings, 15 th Edition (New York, 2008). Duggan W. Strategic Intuition: The Creative Spark in Human Achievement (New York, 2007). Foer J. Moonwalking with Einstein: The Art and Science of Remembering Everything (New York, 2011). Gigenrenzer G. Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconsciousness (New York, 2007). Heisman D. The Improving Chess Thinker (Newton Highlands, 2009). Heisman D. A Guide to Chess Improvement: The Best of Novice Nook (London, 2010). Holland JH, Holyoak KJ, Nisbett RE, Thagard PR. Induction: Processes of Inference, Learning and Discovery (Cambridge, 1986). Kay J. Obliquity: Why Our Goals Are Best Achieved Indirectly (London, 2010). Klein G. Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making (Cambridge, 2009). Popper KR. The Logic of Scientific Discovery (New York, 1959). Popper KR. Objective Knowledge: An Evolutionary Approach (New York, 1972). Shenk D. The Immortal Game: A History of Chess (New York, 2006). Singpurwalla ND. Reliability and Risk: A Bayesian Perspective (Chichester, 2006). Taleb NN. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2 nd Edition (New York, 2010) Taleb NN. The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms (New York, 2010) Wikipedia articles on black swan theory, black swan (Cygnus atratus), Black-Scholes, Juvenal, Alexander Alekhine, Karl Popper References

30 Thank you!

31 (Cognitive) Errors

32


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