Presentation on theme: "Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) GHG Accounting Standard SCS-002 Draft, Annex B (ANSI) Stanley P. Rhodes, Ph.D. Scientific Certification Systems."— Presentation transcript:
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) GHG Accounting Standard SCS-002 Draft, Annex B (ANSI) Stanley P. Rhodes, Ph.D. Scientific Certification Systems
Draft ANSI LCA GHG Accounting Standard The LCA GHG Accounting Standard is part of an overall Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) ANSI standard that covers all human health and environmental impacts linked to industrial systems. The standards committee has 25 members, including U.S. DOE, State of California, PG&E, U.S. steel industry, City of San Francisco, World Resources Institute. LCA GHG Accounting Standard (Annex B) is undergoing broad scientific review and is receiving formal written comments based on outreach beyond the committee. Final standards committee vote expected January 2010.
Important Climate Terms and LCA GHG Accounting Factors … We’ll be discussing these Climate Measurements - Radiative Forcing (RF) - Global Mean Temperatures (GMT) - Regional Mean Temperatures (RMT) Intensification of Anomalies Key GHG Emissions Tropospheric Ozone (TO) Black Carbon (BC) Tropospheric Sulfate Aerosols (TSA) GHG Loading GHG Fate/Transport GHG Atmospheric Lifetimes LCA GHG Factors Global Warming Potentials (GWP) Regional Warming Potentials (RWP) Pulse Warming Potentials (PWP) GHG-Precursor Conversion Factors (PCF) Environmental Characterization Factors (ECF)
The Current IPCC GHG Accounting System The choice of the 100-year time horizon The IPCC framework has established GHG metrics for the 20-, 100- and 500-year time horizons, with the 100-year time horizon preferred. Current list of key Kyoto GHGs Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) Nitrous oxide (N 2 0) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) GWP values are not linked to “atmospheric lifetimes” The IPCC global warming potential (GWP) index amortizes the heating effects of GHG emissions over these three time horizons without regard to their atmospheric lifetimes (compared to an equivalent amount of CO 2 ).
Assign GWP Values Consistent with Their Atmospheric Lifetimes 00.51.0 1-year 20-years 100-years (IPCC/Kyoto) CO 2, N 2 0 and other long-lived GHGs Methane BC, TO, Aerosols Fraction Remaining in Atmosphere Atmospheric Lifetimes of GHG Emissions
Lower Limit of IPCC Methane GWP Is Based on Atmospheric Lifetime Industrial Designation or Common Name (years) Chemical Formula Lifetime (years) Radiative Efficiency (W m –2 ppb –1) Global Warming Potential for Given Time Horizon SAR‡ (100-yr)20-yr500-yr Carbon dioxideCO 2 See below a b 1.4x10 –5 111 Methane c CH 4 12 c 3.7x10 –4 25727.6 Nitrous oxideN2ON2O1143.03x10 –3 310289153 Substances controlled by the Montreal Protocol CFC-11CCl 3 F450.253,8006,7301,620 CFC-12CCl 2 F 2 1000.328,10011,0005,200 CFC-13CClF 3 6400.2510,80016,400 CFC-113CCl 2 FCClF 2 850.34,8006,5402,700 CFC-114CClF 2 3000.318,0408,730 CFC-115CClF 2 CF 3 1,7000.185,3109,990 Halon-1301CBrF 3 650.325,4008,4802,760 Halon-1211CBrClF 2 160.34,750575 Halon-2402CBrF 2 200.333,680503 Carbon tetrachlorideCCl 4 260.131,4002,700435 Methyl bromideCH 3 Br0.70.01171 The 100-year GWP value of 25 amortizes the heating effects of methane 90 years after it has left the atmosphere The 20-year GWP value of 72 represents the heating effects of methane during its atmospheric lifetime.
Highlights of LCA GHG Accounting Standard Establishes the list of “Key GHGs” based upon their contribution (>±0.1 W/m 2 ) to 2009 global RF (+ 4.0 W/m 2 ). Includes the short-lived GHG emissions: Tropospheric Ozone Global RF = +1.0 W/m 2 Black Carbon Global RF = +0.9 W/m 2 Tropospheric Sulfate Aerosols Global RF = –0.9 W/m 2 Establishes time horizons based upon projected or current exceedances of climate anomaly thresholds. Assigns all GWP values and other GHG factors based upon atmospheric lifetimes. Establishes separate Arctic GHG accounting protocols distinct from the global GHG accounting.
Examples of Applications of LCA GHG Accounting Standard Determining the environmental relevance of the CO 2 Evaluating the accuracy of IPCC projections Establishing the Arctic Climate Registry Evaluating new power (everything from wind to IGCC), biofuel, and other major infrastructural improvement projects seeking loan approval from DOE
The List of Key GHG Emissions (Threshold of Global/Regional Forcing: > ±0.1 W/m 2 ) 0.3W/m2 (BC) 0 -0.6 W/m 2 direct -0.3 W/m 2 indirect
Why Tropospheric Ozone is a Key GHG South American TO Plume Intensity > 75 DU Figure from NASA OMI O 3 satellite plume output This TO plume represents a heat intensity (i.e., radiative forcing, “RF”) of +3.2 W/m 2, compared to global RF for CO 2 of +1.62 W/m 2.
This TO Plume Appears to Be Affecting Western Antarctica Image source: NASA; data reported in degrees centigrade
Why Black Carbon is a Key GHG Emission: Adds 18% to Total Annual Global RF Source: Scripps Institute of Oceanography
Why is Tropospheric Sulfate Aerosols (a Coolant) Also a Key GHG The global cooling effect of TSA is –0.9 W/m 2, of which direct reflectivity is –0.6 W/m 2 and indirect is –0.3 W/m 2. NASA projects an increase in TSA emissions by 2050 of 20–40% largely from coal plants. The result would be an increase in the cooling effect that is greater than the –0.1 W/m 2 threshold. TSA emission projections consistent with current U.S. regulations would reduce global TSA cooling effects and result in unintended net global RF increases that are greater than the + 0.1 W/m 2 threshold. TSA emissions can result in both beneficial summer cooling (i.e., reducing Cooling Degree Days) as well as causing unwanted winter cooling and increasing the intensity of Heating Degrees Days. In both cases, TSA emissions can cause significant indirect emissions of other Key GHG emissions.
LCA GHG Accounting Allocates TSA Cooling Between Unwanted and Beneficial Seasonal Cooling Beneficial Summer Cooling Unwanted Winter/Spring Cooling Unwanted Fall Cooling SO 2 Emissions - tons SO 2 Fraction as Tropospheric Sulfate Aerosols
Setting up the Global LCA Accounting System GMT Anomaly to Exceed Threshold (>1.5 o C) within 20 Years Data Sources and Models: IPCC, NASA, Scripps, GISS and other recognized consensus climate model data only
The Arctic In Crisis Establishing Arctic LCA GHG Accounting Protocols
Key GHG Emissions Affecting the Arctic Regional black carbon, tropospheric ozone, and methane loadings account for 70-80% of total atmospheric warming in the Arctic. Source: AMAP 2009 (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program) Regional sources of black carbon in the Arctic (agricultural burning, forest fires) are creating steady-state Arctic haze. Eventual deposition onto snow decreases albedo of the Arctic perennial ice sheet, which dramatically increases melting. Source: AMAP 2009 Methane is concentrating in the Arctic at concentrations 20% higher than in lower latitudes. Source: NOAA Tropospheric ozone is contributing up 40% of RF of the Arctic region. Source: NASA
NASA – Perennial Ice Sheet is Going The total area covered by thick older ice that survives one or more summers (”perennial ice") shrank 42 percent or 1.54 million square kilometers (595,000 square miles) between 2004-2008, leaving thinner first-year ice ("seasonal ice") as the dominant type of ice in the region
Arctic LCA Accounting System: Exceedances of Thresholds Justify Annual Time Horizon
CO 2 as a Key GHG Emission: Determining Environmental Relevance
67% of Global Loadings are from the Shorter-Lived GHGs in 2009 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 N20N20 BCTOCH 4 CO 2 214 525 Annual 676 Annual 1200 Legacy 1400 Legacy 34 Annual 42-50 Annual 3.5 Annual Billion tonnes CO 2 e
Background Concentrations of CO 2 Show Linear Increase (+28%) over 50 Years
Annual CO 2 Emissions Grew Exponentially Over the Past 50 Years Exponential Global Economic Growth Facts Since 1950 Increases Economy 5-fold Automobile fleet 20-fold Air miles traveled 35-fold Coal plant capacity 4-fold Population 3-fold Annual CO 2 emissions 4-fold Why? Huge Sinks: – Oceanic Acidification (carbonic acid) – Vegetative sequestration – Soil sequestration
Projections Beyond the Exponentials: 2030 CO 2 RF Intensification The 50-year exponential global population growth and economic growth are expected to level off. However, assuming continued exponential economic growth (i.e., continuation of Mauna Loa trend), CO 2 background concentrations would reach levels of 425 ppm from the current 390 ppm by 2030. This increase in background concentrations of CO 2 would result in an RF increase of +0.4 W/m 2 by 2030.
Projected 2030 Global/Arctic RF Increases Key GHG Emissions Radiative Forcing % Total Increases, W/m2 CO 2 (global)+ 0.4 10-25% CH 4 (global)+ 0.6 to +3.0 TO (global)+ 0.3 to + 0.5 BC (global)+ 0.2 to +0.8 TSA (global) +0.1 to – 0.6 2030 Total Projected Global RF+ 1.6 to +3.9 W/m2 CH 4 (Arctic)tbd TO (Arctic)> +0.8 BC (Arctic)+1.2, +3.0 (with albedo loss) 2030 Total Projected Arctic RF+ 2.0 to + 3.8 W/m2
Evaluating the Accuracy of IPCC GHG Projections
Uncertainty in IPCC GHG Loading & RF Projections (100-Year Time Horizon)
Uncertainties in the IPCC’s GHG Projections are Greatest for the 100-Year Time Horizon Time HorizonUncertainty or GHG Inventory Uncertainty of Radiative Forcing Uncertainty of GMT/RMT Annual Time Horizon CO 2 ±10% Methane ±10% TO ±15% BC TBD Aerosols ±10% CO 2 ±10% Methane ±10% TO ±15% BC ±20% Aerosols ±10% GMT ±10% RMT ±10% 20-year Time Horizon Projections CO 2 ±40% Methane ±200% TO TBD BC TBD Aerosols ±40% GMT ±35% 100-year Time Horizon Projections CO 2 ±600% Methane TBD TO TBD BC TBD Aerosols TBD GMT ±300% Data from IPCC SERES Version 1.1 or Range of Major Climate Models
SRES Model Estimates for 100-Year Time Horizon GHG Loadings 2000-2030 Estimates < 60 billion tonnes
Projections for Arctic TO and BC RF Intensification: > +2.0 W/m 2 Source: Cooperative Institute for Climate Science W/m 2 2000-2050 Projections of TO and BC RF Increases
Top Registry Goal: Stopping Black Carbon Plumes Hitting the Arctic These peak BC plumes have 4x more RF intensity than CO 2
Loss of Polar Sea Ice Increases RMT by 3 ° C 1,000 Miles South of the Arctic Circle The Russian and Alaskan Tundra will melt….
3 ° C Anomaly is Likely to Trigger Near-Surface Arctic Methane Pulses Near-surface methane hydrates = > 6,000 billion tonnes CO 2 e Methane bubbles observed by sonar escaping from the Arctic sea bed. (The pulses have started.) By contrast, the IPCC global cumulative CO 2 loading from 1990 through 2030 is projected to be 386 billion tonnes (as modeled by SRES Version 1.1).
A fleet of Sea Salt Injectors Injecting sea salt into the atmosphere over the newly de-iced open-water ocean would increase total cloud cover and increase cloud albedo significantly and would help re- establish the Arctic perennial ice sheet without environmental trade-offs A fleet of Sea Salt Injectors Injecting sea salt into the atmosphere over the newly de-iced open-water ocean would increase total cloud cover and increase cloud albedo significantly and would help re- establish the Arctic perennial ice sheet without environmental trade-offs Arctic Registry Potential Investment Dispersion of Sea Salt, a Aerosol Coolant, Could Help Stabilize the Arctic Perennial Ice Sheet
Recovering the Methane-Hydrates Before Complete Melting of Permafrost
The Need for a Separate Arctic GHG Accounting and the Arctic Climate Registry If the Arctic crisis is NOT addressed within the next 10 years, then attempts to mitigate global carbon dioxide and the other Kyoto GHG emissions over the next 20-to-50 Years will be too little too late …
Comparing LCA-Based GHG Accounting to IPCC GHG Accounting IPCC GHG AccountingLCA GHG Accounting Scientific BasisBased upon general Based upon specific climatological climatologic scientific parameters and data integrated into principles LCA Impact Assessment Framework Environmental Relevance of 6 GHG emissions 6 GHG emissions Key GHG emissions 40% of global RF anomaly 90% of global RF anomaly Time Horizons RequiredNoneGlobal : 20-year time horizon Arctic : Annual time horizon Assigns GWP Based uponNoYes Atmospheric Lifetimes Regional GHG Accounting NoYes Regional Climate RegistriesNoYes (e.g., Arctic) Integrates TO, BC, and TSA ExcludesIncludes into GHG Accounting Accuracy of GHG 90% Accounting Factors
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