## Presentation on theme: "Matt’s Schedule. Headway Variation Estimated Load vs. Passenger Movement."— Presentation transcript:

Matt’s Schedule

Weather

Interesting to note the below average passenger boardings in the summer and x-mas week Need to calculate the average by quarter or by month, since the summer is a distinct season

I tried to normalize the data, creating a summer and non-summer period to account for the lower ridership over the summer…not sure if the dates I picked for the normalization are the best. In this chart, summer is June, July or August. I could probably be more precise to match the school year.

Boardings vs Ave Temp AM Average, Direction = 1

Dwell vs. Ave Temp AM Average, Direction = 1

Trip Time vs. Ave Temp AM Average, Direction = 1

Boardings vs. Precipitation AM Average, Direction = 1

Boardings vs Ave Temp AM Average, Direction = 1

Trip Time vs. Precipitation AM Average, Direction = 1

Trip Time vs. Ave Temp AM Average, Direction = 1

Dwell vs. Precipitation AM Average, Direction = 1

Dwell vs. Ave Temp AM Average, Direction = 1

Boardings vs. Precipitation Deviation from Mean

Boardings vs. Ave Temp Deviation from Mean

Trip Time vs. Precipitation Deviation from Mean

Trip Time vs. Ave Temp Deviation from Mean

Dwell Time Scatter Plots

Dwell 3-D

Dwell 3-D Axes Reversed

Dwell Regression Dwell <= 1 min, Boardings Only X1 = Boardings X2 = Alightings X3 = Late (> 3 minutes) X4 = Timepoint (dummy) X5 = Precipitation X6 = Ave Temp

Dwell Regression Dwell <= 1 min, Boardings Only X1 = Boardings X2 = Alightings X3 = Late (> 3 minutes) X4 = Timepoint (dummy) X5 = Precipitation X6 = Ave Temp X7 = Boardings 2 X8 = Alightings 2

Dwell Regression Dwell <= 1 min, Alightings Only X1 = Boardings X2 = Alightings X3 = Late (> 3 minutes) X4 = Timepoint (dummy) X5 = Precipitation X6 = Ave Temp

Dwell Regression Dwell <= 1 min, Alightings Only X1 = Boardings X2 = Alightings X3 = Late (> 3 minutes) X4 = Timepoint (dummy) X5 = Precipitation X6 = Ave Temp X7 = Boardings 2 X8 = Alightings 2

Dwell Regression Dwell <= 1 min, Both Boardings & Alightings X1 = Boardings X2 = Alightings X3 = Late (> 3 minutes) X4 = Timepoint (dummy) X5 = Precipitation X6 = Ave Temp

Dwell Regression Dwell <= 1 min, Both Boardings & Alightings X1 = Boardings X2 = Alightings X3 = Late (> 3 minutes) X4 = Timepoint (dummy) X5 = Precipitation X6 = Ave Temp X7 = Boardings 2 X8 = Alightings 2

Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X17 = Friday (dummy)

Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X17 = Friday (dummy)

Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X17 = Friday (dummy)

Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles < 25 & total_dwell < 100*60 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X17 = Friday (dummy)

Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles < 25 & total_dwell < 100*60 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August)

Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles < 25 & total_dwell < 100*60 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August)

Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles < 25 & total_dwell < 100*60 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X17 = (Boardings + Alightings) 2

Histogram of total boardings(blue) and total alightings(red)

Boxplot of total boardings(1) and total alightings(2)

Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles 0 & total_offs > 0 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X17 = (Boardings + Alightings) 2

Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles 0 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Boardings + Alightings X8 = Lift X9 = Average Passenger Load X10 = Total Dwell Time X11 = Precipitation X12 = Average Temperature X13 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X14 = (Boardings + Alightings) 2

Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles 0 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X17 = (Boardings + Alightings) 2

Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles 0 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Boardings + Alightings X8 = Lift X9 = Average Passenger Load X10 = Total Dwell Time X11 = Precipitation X12 = Average Temperature X13 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X14 = (Boardings + Alightings) 2 Ahmed says use this version

Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles 0 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Boardings + Alightings X8 = Lift X9 = Average Passenger Load X10 = Total Dwell Time X11 = Precipitation X12 = Average Temperature X13 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X14 = (Boardings + Alightings) 2

Regression Dwell Regression Model I have run several of these..here is an example Dwell = 6.09 + 3.54*No. Boardings + 1.97*No. Alightings R squared =.291 There are interesting differences in the dwells for timepoint stop locations versus regular stops. Travel Time Regression Model I am still experimenting with this. The thought was that we can explain as much variation as possible with the bus data…what we can’t explain would be road conditions/congestion. It would be interesting to compare routes (low and high congestion routes) to test this assumption. I have achieved an R squared of about.19 Most of the variation is explained by passenger movement and dwell.

Notes Headway variance Subplots of headway variance and estimated load Subplots of headway variance and boardings/alightings Table of summary statistics to re-plot in excel »See if what I did worked… »Also experiment w/different ways of displaying the timepoint names (i.e. a legend) Dwell regression model With stop locations W/O stop locations Dwell Circle Running time: arrive time(x) – leave time(x-1) Layover time: hmmm… Dwell time: dwell, less layover (?) Stop circle time: leave_time - arrive_time, less dwell (?) Travel time regression model Plottools function in Matlab, which you call from the command line, is very handy for manipulating figure formats…

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