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Published byBruno Leathers Modified about 1 year ago

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Matt’s Schedule

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Headway Variation

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Estimated Load vs. Passenger Movement

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Weather

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Interesting to note the below average passenger boardings in the summer and x-mas week Need to calculate the average by quarter or by month, since the summer is a distinct season

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I tried to normalize the data, creating a summer and non-summer period to account for the lower ridership over the summer…not sure if the dates I picked for the normalization are the best. In this chart, summer is June, July or August. I could probably be more precise to match the school year.

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Boardings vs Ave Temp AM Average, Direction = 1

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Dwell vs. Ave Temp AM Average, Direction = 1

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Trip Time vs. Ave Temp AM Average, Direction = 1

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Boardings vs. Precipitation AM Average, Direction = 1

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Boardings vs Ave Temp AM Average, Direction = 1

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Trip Time vs. Precipitation AM Average, Direction = 1

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Trip Time vs. Ave Temp AM Average, Direction = 1

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Dwell vs. Precipitation AM Average, Direction = 1

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Dwell vs. Ave Temp AM Average, Direction = 1

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Boardings vs. Precipitation Deviation from Mean

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Boardings vs. Ave Temp Deviation from Mean

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Trip Time vs. Precipitation Deviation from Mean

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Trip Time vs. Ave Temp Deviation from Mean

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Dwell Time Scatter Plots

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Dwell 3-D

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Dwell 3-D Axes Reversed

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Dwell Regression Dwell <= 1 min, Boardings Only X1 = Boardings X2 = Alightings X3 = Late (> 3 minutes) X4 = Timepoint (dummy) X5 = Precipitation X6 = Ave Temp

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Dwell Regression Dwell <= 1 min, Boardings Only X1 = Boardings X2 = Alightings X3 = Late (> 3 minutes) X4 = Timepoint (dummy) X5 = Precipitation X6 = Ave Temp X7 = Boardings 2 X8 = Alightings 2

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Dwell Regression Dwell <= 1 min, Alightings Only X1 = Boardings X2 = Alightings X3 = Late (> 3 minutes) X4 = Timepoint (dummy) X5 = Precipitation X6 = Ave Temp

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Dwell Regression Dwell <= 1 min, Alightings Only X1 = Boardings X2 = Alightings X3 = Late (> 3 minutes) X4 = Timepoint (dummy) X5 = Precipitation X6 = Ave Temp X7 = Boardings 2 X8 = Alightings 2

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Dwell Regression Dwell <= 1 min, Both Boardings & Alightings X1 = Boardings X2 = Alightings X3 = Late (> 3 minutes) X4 = Timepoint (dummy) X5 = Precipitation X6 = Ave Temp

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Dwell Regression Dwell <= 1 min, Both Boardings & Alightings X1 = Boardings X2 = Alightings X3 = Late (> 3 minutes) X4 = Timepoint (dummy) X5 = Precipitation X6 = Ave Temp X7 = Boardings 2 X8 = Alightings 2

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Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X17 = Friday (dummy)

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Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X17 = Friday (dummy)

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Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X17 = Friday (dummy)

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Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles < 25 & total_dwell < 100*60 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X17 = Friday (dummy)

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Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles < 25 & total_dwell < 100*60 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August)

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Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles < 25 & total_dwell < 100*60 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August)

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Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles < 25 & total_dwell < 100*60 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X17 = (Boardings + Alightings) 2

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Histogram of total boardings(blue) and total alightings(red)

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Boxplot of total boardings(1) and total alightings(2)

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Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles 0 & total_offs > 0 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X17 = (Boardings + Alightings) 2

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Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles 0 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Boardings + Alightings X8 = Lift X9 = Average Passenger Load X10 = Total Dwell Time X11 = Precipitation X12 = Average Temperature X13 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X14 = (Boardings + Alightings) 2

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Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles 0 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Total Boardings X8 = Boardings Squared X9 = Total Alightings X10 = Alightings Squared X11 = Lift X12 = Average Passenger Load X13 = Total Dwell Time X14 = Precipitation X15 = Average Temperature X16 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X17 = (Boardings + Alightings) 2

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Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles 0 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Boardings + Alightings X8 = Lift X9 = Average Passenger Load X10 = Total Dwell Time X11 = Precipitation X12 = Average Temperature X13 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X14 = (Boardings + Alightings) 2 Ahmed says use this version

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Trip Time Model Modified Ahmed Version – outliers removed tripmiles > 0 & tripmiles 0 X1 = Distance (in miles) X2 = Scheduled Number of Stops X3 = Direction or Southbound X4 = AM Peak X5 = PM Peak X6 = Actual Number of Stops X7 = Boardings + Alightings X8 = Lift X9 = Average Passenger Load X10 = Total Dwell Time X11 = Precipitation X12 = Average Temperature X13 = Summer (dummy variable if month = June thru August) X14 = (Boardings + Alightings) 2

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Regression Dwell Regression Model I have run several of these..here is an example Dwell = 6.09 + 3.54*No. Boardings + 1.97*No. Alightings R squared =.291 There are interesting differences in the dwells for timepoint stop locations versus regular stops. Travel Time Regression Model I am still experimenting with this. The thought was that we can explain as much variation as possible with the bus data…what we can’t explain would be road conditions/congestion. It would be interesting to compare routes (low and high congestion routes) to test this assumption. I have achieved an R squared of about.19 Most of the variation is explained by passenger movement and dwell.

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Notes Headway variance Subplots of headway variance and estimated load Subplots of headway variance and boardings/alightings Table of summary statistics to re-plot in excel »See if what I did worked… »Also experiment w/different ways of displaying the timepoint names (i.e. a legend) Dwell regression model With stop locations W/O stop locations Dwell Circle Running time: arrive time(x) – leave time(x-1) Layover time: hmmm… Dwell time: dwell, less layover (?) Stop circle time: leave_time - arrive_time, less dwell (?) Travel time regression model Plottools function in Matlab, which you call from the command line, is very handy for manipulating figure formats…

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