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Implementation Project 5-5534 North Region ROW Tool Implementation Workshop August 2, 2010 Dallas District Office

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Welcome and Introductions

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Workshop Objectives Introduce two new ROW acquisition software tools (TAMSIM and EROW) to additional district ROW personnel in region Share analysis of parcel acquisition possibilities for a Dallas District project Obtain feedback on tools from district ROW personnel

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Tool Capabilities TAMSIM – Determine Maximum Benefits on a Single Project – Determine Parcel Priorities within a Project – Determine Comparative Benefits from Various Parcel Selection Scenarios (Input Data Files for EROW) EROW –Determine Optimal Early Acquisition Budget Amount for Multiple Projects –Determine Optimal Use of a Given Early Acquisition Budget

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Introduction to Simulation

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Simulation Simulation is a statistical experiment where a computer model is designed to reproduce probabilistic events that are inherent in the system under consideration.

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Implementation Project 5-5534 An Example ROW project involving four parcels Purchase time for parcels is random Goal is to estimate average time at which construction can begin, i.e., when all parcels have been purchased

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Probability Law for the Duration of a Parcel Purchase Twenty-five percent of the time parcel purchase takes five months Fifty percent of the time parcel purchase takes ten months Twenty-five percent of the time parcel purchase takes twenty months

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Mathematical Description Let T be a random variable denoting the time duration for parcel acquisition –Pr{T=5 mo} = 25% –Pr{T=10 mo} = 50% –Pr{T=20 mo} = 25%

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Mathematical Description Let T be a random variable denoting the time duration for parcel acquisition –Pr{T=5 mo} = 25% –Pr{T=10 mo} = 50% –Pr{T=20 mo} = 25% Average duration is 11.25 months Not equally likely, and not symmetric

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Preparation for Simulation Let T be a random variable denoting the time duration for parcel acquisition Let two coin flips determine simulated time durations that occur –Pr{T=5 mo} = Tail-Tail –Pr{T=10 mo} = Head-Tail or Tail-Head –Pr{T=20 mo} = Head-Head

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Implementation Project 5-5534 A Word about Statistics Data $9,000, $12,000, $12,200, $12,500, $50,000 Mean $19,140 Median $12,200

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Simulation Tool Walkthrough

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Dallas County SH 78 Practical Exercise Using TAMSIM

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Exercise

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Exercise

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Exercise

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Exercise

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Exercise

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Exercise

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Exercise

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Exercise

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Exercise

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Exercise

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Exercise

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Exercise

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Exercise

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Exercise Then click Reset Data to go on to create the next scenario and run again.

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Implementation Project 5-5534 BREAK

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Introduction to Optimization

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Introduction to Optimization Optimization is derived from the Latin word “optimus,” meaning the best. Organizations are striving to streamline their business processes to maximize utility of resources. O What is the best (optimal) way of using resources (e.g., workforce, machinery, capital, etc.) to produce maximum output? Business Processes INPUTS OUTPUTS

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Example We have 5 projects to choose from. The total budget available is $40. Which ones would you choose? Project12345 Cost, $10241457 Net profit, $206025915

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Analysis of Possibilities Projects Selected Total Cost of Projects Selected Total Profits from Projects Selected Benefit/Cost Ratio 2,3 1,2,4 1,3,4,5 2,4,5

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Analysis of Possibilities Projects Selected Total Cost of Projects Selected Total Profits from Projects Selected Benefit/Cost Ratio 2,3$38$852.24 1,2,4 1,3,4,5 2,4,5

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Analysis of Possibilities Projects Selected Total Cost of Projects Selected Total Profits from Projects Selected Benefit/Cost Ratio 2,3$38$852.24 1,2,4$39$892.28 1,3,4,5 2,4,5

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Analysis of Possibilities Projects Selected Total Cost of Projects Selected Total Profits from Projects Selected Benefit/Cost Ratio 2,3$38$852.24 1,2,4$39$892.28 1,3,4,5$36$691.92 2,4,5

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Analysis of Possibilities Projects Selected Total Cost of Projects Selected Total Profits from Projects Selected Benefit/Cost Ratio 2,3$38$852.24 1,2,4$39$892.28 1,3,4,5$36$691.92 2,4,5$36$842.33

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Optimization Optimization falls in the category of decision support tools. Involves building a mathematical model of business processes and solve the model to find the best (optimal) input mix to achieve the stated objective. The solution is obtained by systematically choosing values of decision variables within their allowable range.

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Optimization There are different optimization methods/algorithms: nonlinear programming, linear programming, mixed integer programming, dynamic programming, etc.

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Dynamic Programming A method of solving optimization problems that exhibit a special structure. The problem is divided into a sequence of overlapping sub problems and the solution from one is used to solve the next one. When compared with total enumeration of all solutions, dynamic programming can significantly reduce the computational time of finding the optimal solution.

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Implementation Project 5-5534 EROW Optimization Tool Walkthrough

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Implementation Project 5-5534 EROW Practical Exercise

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Output for EROW Will be saved in savings.txt file Will be saved in costs.txt file

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Standard TAMSIM Runs for EROW Optimization A series of TAMSIM runs to determine individual parcel costs and savings should each parcel alone be purchased early. A series of TAMSIM runs to determine costs and savings of groupings of parcels. Parcel groupings are created based on individual parcel rates of return, from highest to lowest.

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Implementation Project 5-5534 TAMSIM Runs and Output for SH78 Speculation Begins: Schematics Available (Time 0) Additional Cost Increase Due to Speculation (%/yr): 15.00% Project Identification Number (ROW CSJ Number) Scenario No. Selected Input ConditionsOUTPUT: Mean Project CostOUTPUT: Duration Number of Parcels for Early Acquisition Early Acquisition Parcel ID Mean Cost without early acquisition Difference in Mean Cost due to early acquisition Mean Cost of Early Acquisition Mean Time w/o early acquisition Difference in Mean Time Saving/Cost Ratio Dallas SH78 from SH205 to FM6 D0111$787,793$9,182$6,77750.50.71.35 D0212$787,793$15,768$12,88850.50.71.22 D0313$787,793$14,119$11,99950.50.31.18 D0414$787,793$56,950$51,33250.50.31.11 D0515$787,793$5,696$4,49750.50.31.27 D0616$787,793$708$99950.50.00.71 D0717$787,793$39,405$66,34650.50.00.59 D0818$787,793$38,173$64,47050.50.00.59 D0919$787,793$44,653$16,78150.50.32.66 D10110$787,793$241,934$91,81350.50.32.64 D1129, 10$787,793$286,675$108,59350.50.62.64 D1239, 10,1$787,793$296,380$115,37150.51.52.57 D1349, 10,1,5$787,793$302,611$119,86850.51.92.52 D1459, 10,1,5,2$787,793$320,446$132,75650.53.52.41 D1569, 10,1,5,2,3$787,793$336,302$144,75650.54.42.32 D1679, 10,1,5,2,3,4$787,793$395,963$196,08750.55.72.02

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Implementation Project 5-5534 EROW Input Files Project name Scenario 1, Scenario 2, Scenario 3, Scenario 4, … First scenario is always no parcels acquired early.

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Implementation Project 5-5534 EROW Input Screen

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Implementation Project 5-5534 EROW Input Screen

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Implementation Project 5-5534 EROW Input Screen

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Implementation Project 5-5534 EROW Input Screen

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Implementation Project 5-5534 EROW Input Screen

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Implementation Project 5-5534 EROW Input Screen

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Implementation Project 5-5534 EROW Input Screen

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Implementation Project 5-5534 EROW Output Screen

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Implementation Project 5-5534 EROW Output Screen

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Implementation Project 5-5534 EROW Output Screen

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Implementation Project 5-5534 EROW Output Screen

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Review of Data Analysis

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Comparison of TAMSIM Input from the Four Districts – Project Information

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Comparison of TAMSIM Input from the Four Districts – Parcel Information Project Description Total Number of Parcels Number of Parcels with Likelihood of Improve- ment Cost Multiplier for Improve- ments Number of Parcels with Possible Condem- nations Multiplier for Duration of Condem- nation Multiplier of Cost for Condem- nation Mean Duration to Posses- sion from ROW Release Average Parcel Cost, $1000s Median Parcel Cost, $1000s Max Parcel Cost, $1000s Austin: FM 973 2001161.4851.86914 ~ 29157281,087 Dallas: SH78 1062 ~ 6101.5 12241061 El Paso: NE Parkway 1922.5111.6611.34 ~ 184551152,756 Houston: FM1488 28262 ~ 2.5281.251.315 ~ 185651546,750

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Summary District Number of Parcels Mean Cost Without Early Acquisition (1,000s) Avg Cost per Parcel (1000s) Austin20$5,098$254.88 Dallas10$788$78.78 El Paso19$9,110$479.49 Houston28$32,177$1,149.18

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Discussion on Tool Applications and Potential Benefits to Users in Districts

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Implementation Project 5-5534 Final Questions? Adjourn

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