Presentation on theme: "An Outlook: Abundant opportunities in SA Agribusiness AMT Conference 22 September 2010 John Purchase."— Presentation transcript:
An Outlook: Abundant opportunities in SA Agribusiness AMT Conference 22 September 2010 John Purchase
Average Weekly Food Consumption Bhutan: The Namgay family of Shingkhey Village Food expenditure for one week: $5.03 Chad: The Aboubakar family of Breidjing Camp Food expenditure for one week: $1.23 Peter Menzel, Soybean production, domestic use, net trade and prices
Average Weekly Food Consumption Egypt: The Ahmed family of Cairo Food expenditure for one week: $68.53 Ecuador: The Ayme family of Tingo Food expenditure for one week: $31.55 Peter Menzel,
Average Weekly Food Consumption Germany: The Melander family of Bargteheide Food expenditure for one week: $ Peter Menzel, USA: The Revis family of North Carolina Food expenditure for one week $341.98
Global Food & Agriculture environment Complex and diverse – subsistence to corporate farming, basic staples to highly processed products. Globally markets generally work, but purchasing power & distribution problems major challenges. One billion out of 6 billion people chronically hungry Food security major focus of many countries today, especially after food price crisis of Skewed government support and trade environment, as well as under-investment in many cases. Need to produce ~50% more food by 2030, and double (100% increase) food production by 2050.
The Future of Food... “ Evolution of World Food Chains: Response of Companies in Developing Countries” Prof. Dr. Marcos Fava Neves Professor at School of Economics and Business - University of São Paulo, Brazil
Out Topics – Future of Food 1.Introduction to our Group and Style – Exciting 20 Years of Changes What to Expect, How Should Companies in Developing Countries Respond? 4.What is the Role of Governments? 5.Research Agenda on Food Chains for South Africa Chapter ()
Note: 2010F and 2014F are calculated using fixed exchange rates based on the average rates of 2009 from ( to ).www.oanda.com Source: IGD Research, December F2014F RankCountry€bnRankCountry€bnRankCountry€bn 1US6121US6381China761 2China3282China5292US745 3Japan2973Japan3453India448 4France2064India2794Japan360 5India1905France2055Russia322 6UK1886Russia1866Brazil284 7Germany1507Brazil1857France228 8Italy1278UK1708UK198 9Russia1169Germany1609Germany168 10Mexico11210Italy13010Indonesia167 2,3262,8273,681 BRIC to drive Modern Retail growth
% of Population living <1.0$ pd
% of Population Undernourished
SAARF LSM Segments: Proportion of SA adult population and average monthly household income in 2009 Source: SAARF (2010a) & BFAP, 2010
LSM class mobility: All adults during the period 2004 to 2008 Source: SAARF AMPS data for the period 2004 to 2009, as quoted by BFAP
Consumer trends 2009 Consumer expenditure on food: R339,7bn Supermarket phenomenon Globally, massive move to animal protein, impacting on grain production as well BFAP Consumer trends: - Health and well being - Indulgence - Ethical and environmental concerns - Simplicity - Convenience
Primary Production: Performance of Sector Gross Value of Production in R million R'million Source: DAFF, 2009.
Soybean oilcake production, consumption, net trade and prices Source: BFAP, 2010
Soybean production, domestic use, net trade and prices Source: BFAP, 2010
SA Meat Consumption Source: BFAP, 2010
SA chicken production, consumption and chicken:maize price ratio Source: BFAP, 2010
Farming Debt (X R ) Source: DAFF, 2009.
Opportunities Farming requisites, machinery and inputs Financing and insurance Technology service provision Storage and handling Processing Agro-logistics Trade and marketing services Retail
Conclusion Growing markets create opportunities, but with risks and stiff competition. Technology and scale key to competitiveness. Developing and developed agriculture. South Africa has a highly diversified and competitive agro-food industry, and a lot more credit should be afforded the industry for providing safe, nutritious and affordable food to the people of our country.