Distribution functions Goal: estimate the distribution function of the incubation period of HIV/AIDS Why? This is important for predicting the future course of the epidemic Strategy: First estimate the 2-dimensional distribution
Conclusions (1) We found the graph theoretic framework very useful Our algorithms for the parameter reduction step are significantly faster than other methods. We proved that in general the naive MLE is an inconsistent estimator for our AIDS model.
Conclusions (2) We explored several methods to repair the inconsistency The MLE can be very sensitive to small changes in the data There is not enough information to estimate the incubation period consistently without making additional assumptions