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Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dr. Robert MacKay.

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Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dr. Robert MacKay

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Presentation on theme: "Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dr. Robert MacKay."— Presentation transcript:

1 Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dr. Robert MacKay

2 Outline Introduction/ Motivation Natural and Anthropogenic sources of change Recent temperature record Past CO2 Present CO2 A simple mathematical/conceptual model Future projections Future emissions Discussion

3 Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Forcing

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7 No Atmosphere

8 Todays Atmosphere

9 Greenhouse Gases Water Vapor Carbon Dioxide Ozone Methane Nitrous Oxide Chlorofluorocarbons

10 Cooling to offset warming

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13 pH change between 1751 and 1990s. Estimate are that globally ocean surface water pH levels have decreased by as much as.12 units for atmospheric CO2 change from 280 to 360 ppm.

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15 Carbon Dioxide in Prehistoric times

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18 Vostok Ice Core data

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26 Because of long time delays for the carbon cycle, drastically different scenarios yield very similar results for a 20 year time horizon, but drastically different result for a 50 to 100 year time horizon.

27 faster-than-ever.html

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30 US Carbon emissions through 2004

31 Chinas carbon emission through 2004

32 Russias carbon emission through 2004

33 Indias carbon emission through 2004

34 Fossil Fuel Reserves ~40 yrs Oil ~80 yrs Natural gas ~200 years coal

35 World Population

36 Fossil Fuel Reserves Oil

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38 Fossil Fuel Reserves Natural Gas

39 Fossil Fuel Reserves coal

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43 A -developing countries B-Industrialize countries

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