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Center for Business and Economic Research. 2 Not Seasonally Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Civilian Labor Force2,108,6022,109,059 Percent Change from Year.

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Presentation on theme: "Center for Business and Economic Research. 2 Not Seasonally Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Civilian Labor Force2,108,6022,109,059 Percent Change from Year."— Presentation transcript:

1 Center for Business and Economic Research

2 2 Not Seasonally Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Civilian Labor Force2,108,6022,109,059 Percent Change from Year Ago Level-0.7%-0.4% Absolute Change from Year Ago Level-14,711-8,566 Employed1,993,2061,983,170 Percent Change from Year Ago Level-0.4%-0.1% Absolute Change from Year Ago Level-7,870-2,616 Unemployed115,396125,889 Percent Change from Year Ago Level-5.6%-4.5% Absolute Change from Year Ago Level-6,841-5,950 Alabama Unemployment Rate5.5%6.0% Alabama Unemployment Rate (Nov. 2013)5.8%6.2% U.S. Unemployment Rate5.5%5.8% U.S. Unemployment Rate (Nov. 2013)6.6%7.0% Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.

3 3 November 2012 to November 2013 November 2013 to November 2014 Total Nonagricultural 15,90033,700 Natural Resources and Mining Construction-2,4004,700 Manufacturing4,2007,400 Durable Goods Manufacturing3,7006,400 Nondurable Goods Manufacturing5001,000 Trade, Transportation and Utilities3,400-1,800 Wholesale Trade1,700-1,100 Retail Trade600-1,300 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities1, Information00 Financial Activities1,000-1,700 Professional and Business Services-50011,100 Educational and Health Services4,0002,000 Leisure and Hospitality8,3008,900 Other Services-2001,700 Government-1,4001,300 Federal Government-2, State Government1,9001,400 Local Government-1,300700

4 4 Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division. January 2011 November 2014 Change Total Nonagricultural 1,839,4001,954,400115,000 Natural Resources and Mining12,10012, Construction77,20082,3005,100 Manufacturing233,200258,00024,800 Durable Goods Manufacturing143,500166,70023,200 Nondurable Goods Manufacturing89,70091,3001,600 Trade, Transportation and Utilities358,800376,50017,700 Wholesale Trade70,90073,5002,600 Retail Trade221,500231,3009,800 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities66,40071,7005,300 Information23,50022,400-1,100 Financial Activities91,10093,3002,200 Professional and Business Services208,200230,40022,200 Educational and Health Services213,200227,60014,400 Leisure and Hospitality159,500189,90030,400 Other Services78,40080,8002,400 Government384,200381,000-3,200 Federal Government57,20053,000-4,200 State Government110,400112,4002,000 Local Government216,600215,600-1,000

5 5 Employment (Thousands), Unemployment Rate (Percent), Source: Alabama Department of Labor. Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate

6 6 Number of months

7 7 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

8 8 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

9 9 4 th in U.S. in vehicle exports 4 OEMs in the state (Original Equipment Manufacturers) 5 th in U.S. in vehicles manufactured Alabama’s three assembly plants produced 918,172 vehicles in 2013 and the number is expected to climb in the coming years $6.5 billion in vehicles shipped to 99 countries in 2013 Since 2011, Alabama has attracted more than 200 auto- related projects involving $4 billion in investment and 17,000 new jobs Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama (EDPA) and Alabama Department of Commerce.

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13 13 Percent Change From Year Ago Change in Revenue from Year Ago Level TaxTotal Collection Total$1,558,742,2249.1%$129,308,953 Income (Individual)$587,479,2218.4% $45,681,846 Sales$347,809,0382.6%$8,719,665 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue.

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16 16 This Alabama GDP and employment forecast summary is the CBER December 2014 forecast Preliminary 2015 forecast also included below Probability: Forecast (60 Percent) and Range (90 percent) (Percent change) Real GDP range1.0 to to 3.5 Employment range0.3 to to 2.0 Total Tax Receipts, FY range1.5 to 4.0

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22 22 Source: Alabama Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau for Economic Analysis. GDP Employment

23 All Industry Total (Millions of chained 2009 dollars) Percent Change 2004 to2012 to Alabama180, Anniston-Oxford3, Auburn-Opelika4, Birmingham-Hoover55, Daphne-Fairhope-Foley5, Decatur5, Dothan4, Florence-Muscle Shoals4, Gadsden2, Huntsville21, Mobile17, Montgomery15, Tuscaloosa9, Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 23

24 Total Merchandise Metro Area Exports Alabama$19.3 billion Anniston-Oxford$192.7 million Auburn-Opelika$395.4 million Birmingham-Hoover$1.9 billion Daphne-Fairhope-Foley$515.3 million Decatur$673.1 million Dothan$374.7 million Florence-Muscle Shoals$229.7 million Gadsden$54.6 million Huntsville$1.5 billion Mobile$1.5 billion Montgomery$1.7 billion TuscaloosaNA Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. 24

25 Alabama Anniston-Oxford Auburn-Opelika Birmingham-Hoover Daphne-Fairhope-Foley3.1NA Decatur Dothan Florence-Muscle Shoals Gadsden Huntsville Mobile Montgomery TuscaloosaNANA Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.

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29 29 7/1/2010 to 7/1/2013 NumberPercent 7/1/2013ChangeChange Alabama4,833,722 48, Anniston-Oxford116,736 -1, Auburn-Opelika 150,933 10, Birmingham-Hoover1,140,300 11, Daphne-Fairhope-Foley195,54012, Decatur153, Dothan147,691 1, Florence-Muscle Shoals147, Gadsden103, Huntsville 435,737 16, Mobile414, Montgomery373,510 -1, Tuscaloosa 235,628 5, Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

30 30 * Gadsden, Huntsville and Mobile employment peaked in 2008; all others saw peaks in Note: Nonfarm employment (jobs) is by place of work. Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics or 2008 Job Loss to 2014 Nonfarm EmploymentPeak YearNumberPercent Alabama2,005,700 51, % Anniston-Oxford53,400 7, % Auburn-Opelika54,800 -6, % Birmingham-Hoover533,400 17, % Decatur58,600 4, % Dothan63,100 5, % Florence-Muscle Shoals57, % Gadsden*38, % Huntsville*214,300 -3, % Mobile*184,600 11, % Montgomery178,000 8, % Tuscaloosa98,500 -3, % Net Jobs in Metropolitan Areas 41,500 Net Jobs in Nonmetro Counties 9,800

31 Nonfarm EmploymentReal GDPForecast, Percent Anniston-Oxford Auburn-Opelika Birmingham-Hoover Daphne-Fairhope-Foley Decatur Dothan Florence-Muscle Shoals Gadsden Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Alabama Department of Labor, and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama, December

32 1Education/Training(Quality of education; workforce development) 2Government (Federal, state & local government; tax reform; prison reform; state constitution) 3/4Economy/Businesses(Economic & business growth; small businesses) 3/4Jobs(Job growth; better paying jobs) 5Healthcare (Healthcare cost; Affordable Healthcare Act; Medicaid, Medicare) 6Infrastructure(Infrastructure; roads and bridges) 32 Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists’ Poll, Nov

33 33 1 Company Finances & Development (Profitability; business costs; availability of credit; business growth; competition; concern about customers) 2Government (Federal, state & local government; taxation; regulations; uncertainty) 3Workforce(Lack of skilled workers; retaining qualified employees) 4Economy(Economic recovery & growth; consumer spending) 5Healthcare(Healthcare cost; Affordable Healthcare Act) Note: No issues companies are facing was currently mentioned by 1.0% of respondents. Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists’ Poll, Nov

34 Source: Estimates based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data. 34

35 : U.S. $697 Alabama $ : U.S. $44,543 Alabama $36,501

36 : U.S. $697 Alabama $ : U.S. $44,543 Alabama $36,501

37 Understanding the economy and economic development Economy = People + Institutions + Property = Private & Public Sectors Economic Development = Higher or better quality of life Human Capital Development = Improved education and healthcare Institutional Development = Better government, companies, culture Physical Capital Development = Better infrastructure and environment There is no economic development without education (a public good) *** Informal education is also important Pre-Kindergarten to High School (Pure Public Good) Universities (Largely Public Good) Vocational and Community Colleges (Mostly Public Good) Development Policies must be Optimal = Efficient, Fair, Flexible, Sustainable 36

38 Labor force participation (2012): Alabama 57.3% United States 63.7% Educational Attainment (Age 25 and over population) (2012)AlabamaUnited States High school graduates82.6% (84.0%)85.7% (86.4%) Bachelor’s or higher degree22.3% (23.3%)28.5% (29.1%) Population GrowthAlabamaUnited States %13.2% %9.7% %2.4% 37

39 39 Center for Business and Economic Research Culverhouse College of Commerce The University of Alabama Box Tuscaloosa, Alabama Serving Alabama Since 1930


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