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Supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Retail Overview Q4 2010 Source: Nielsen Scan Track epos data to w/e 25.12.10 R Watson.

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Presentation on theme: "Supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Retail Overview Q4 2010 Source: Nielsen Scan Track epos data to w/e 25.12.10 R Watson."— Presentation transcript:

1 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Retail Overview Q Source: Nielsen Scan Track epos data to w/e R Watson

2 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Total Seafood Retail Market Slows In the 52 weeks to 25 th December 2010 GB seafood retail market was worth £2.840 billion, up 0.64% on last year. Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data 0.64%

3 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Chilled Sector Drives Value Growth Value/ £000sMAT TO WE MAT TO WE MAT TO WE MAT % Chg YA TOTAL SEAFOOD 2,716,0082,821,5812,839, AMBIENT 464,347509,995486, CHILLED 1,498,6861,542,9351,592, FROZEN 752,975768,650760, TOTAL MEALS¹ 199,428204,747211, TOTAL CHILLED MEALS 125,715133,103150, TOTAL FROZEN MEALS 73,71271,64461, TOTAL SHELLFISH MEALS 36,65641,40051, TOTAL SHELLFISH² 426,941440,805447, TOTAL SHELLFISH 463,597482,205498, TOTAL AMBIENT SHELLFISH 14,48114,10313, TOTAL CHILLED SHELLFISH 285,365303,948320, TOTAL FROZEN SHELLFISH 163,752164,154164, ¹ includes shellfish meals, ² excludes shellfish meals Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

4 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Total Seafood Retail Market Volume Falls In the year ending , 377,468 tonnes of seafood was sold in the GB retail market, falling -1% Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

5 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Chilled Sector Drives Volume Growth Volume (tonnes)MAT TO WE MAT TO WE MAT TO WE MAT % Chg YA TOTAL SEAFOOD383,036381,130377,468 AMBIENT108,592104,950100, CHILLED135,859140,884142, FROZEN138,585135,295134, TOTAL MEALS¹42,51742,40440, TOTAL CHILLED MEALS20,09721,56723, TOTAL FROZEN MEALS22,41920,83716, TOTAL SHELLFISH MEALS5,8326,6138, TOTAL SHELLFISH²39,39440,89040, TOTAL SHELLFISH45,22547,50348, TOTAL AMBIENT SHELLFISH1,5601,5251, TOTAL CHILLED SHELLFISH25,48327,98728, TOTAL FROZEN SHELLFISH18,18317,99118, ¹ includes shellfish meals, ² excludes shellfish meals Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data ¹ includes shellfish meals, ² excludes shellfish meals

6 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Market Segmentation Remains Unchanged Chilled seafood still accounts for 56% of the market by value. There have been no significant changes in the segmentation of the seafood market compared to Q Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

7 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Total Seafood De-values (Q vs Q4 2010) Value/ £000s Q4: 12 WKS TO Q4: 12 WKS TO % Chg Volume/ tonnes Q4: 12 WKS TO Q4: 12 WKS TO % Chg TOTAL SEAFOOD 649,741662,8792 TOTAL SEAFOOD 86,09784,799-2 CHILLED 360,197371,9523 CHILLED 32,63931,941-2 FROZEN 180,262183,1352 FROZEN 30,79531,6533 AMBIENT 109,282107,791 AMBIENT 22,66321,204-6 Q4 De-valuation lead by chilled and the strong de-valuation of Ambient Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

8 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Frozen Sales Rally in Final Quarter of 2010 Value/ £000s Q3: 12 WKS TO Q4: 12 WKS TO % Chg Volume/ tonnes Q3: 12 WKS TO Q4: 12 WKS TO % Chg TOTAL SEAFOOD 640,243662,8794 TOTAL SEAFOOD 85,50884,799 FRESH 356,346371,9524 FRESH 31,80231,9410 FROZEN 168,581183,1359 FROZEN 30,25431,6535 AMBIENT 115,316107,791-7 AMBIENT 23,45121, Overall seafood sales for Q are up compared to Q3, with only Ambient performing poorly Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

9 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Chilled Market Segmentation Chilled Natural and Prepared are the largest segments in the Chilled sector with a combined 80% of the Chilled market by value and 70% by volume Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data MAT

10 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Frozen Market Segmentation Segments in the frozen sector are much more evenly spread Natural has the largest share of the market by value Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data MAT

11 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Chilled Segment Driven by Chilled Prepared Value/ £000s MAT 2YAMAT YAMAT TY to MAT % Chg YA TOTAL CHILLED 1,498,6861,542,9351,592, CHILLED NATURAL 815,041824,284825, CHILLED PREPARED 390,511412,784444, CHILLED SAUCE 126,596128,367144, CHILLED CAKES 60,55065,40564, CHILLED BREADED 50,04853,89957, CHILLED SUSHI 40,89747,15445, CHILLED BATTER 13,6719,8178, CHILLED FINGERS Prepared and Sauce are also showing good growth up 7.7% and 12.9% respectively Fingers are growing at +94% (albeit from a small base) up further from the 77% in Q3 Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

12 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Chilled Volume Growth Slows Volume/ tonnes MAT 2YAMAT YAMAT TY to MAT % Chg YA TOTAL CHILLED 135,859140,884142, CHILLED NATURAL 61,94562,67559, CHILLED PREPARED 35,12137,47340, CHILLED SAUCE 19,78720,37522, CHILLED CAKES 7,7598,8378, CHILLED BREADED 6,2406,5737, CHILLED SUSHI 2,9673,5393, CHILLED BATTER 1,7491,1621, CHILLED FINGERS Chilled volume growth is slowing with Natural, Cakes, Sushi & Batter and in decline. Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

13 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Frozen Segment in Decline Value/ £000s MAT 2YAMAT YAMAT TY to MAT % Chg YA TOTAL FROZEN752,975768,650760, FROZEN NATURAL191,959209,124206, FROZEN FINGERS124,157129,867127, FROZEN BATTER125,610121,886123, FROZEN BREADED132,936122,963123, FROZEN SAUCE98,890107,746102, FROZEN PREPARED59,10756,26054, FROZEN CAKES20,31620,74520, Frozen Sauce halts its growth on the back of NPD push Frozen Batter and Frozen Breaded have stabilised after a period of decline Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

14 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Although frozen Sauce sales remain steady the decline in volume may indicate the market is becoming more premium than the traditional products they replace Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data Volume/ tonnesMAT 2YAMAT YAMAT TY to MAT % Chg YA TOTAL FROZEN138,585135,295134, FROZEN NATURAL25,35626,00026, FROZEN FINGERS29,56528,87128, FROZEN BATTER21,27720,82922, FROZEN BREADED20,78519,53820, FROZEN SAUCE27,51826,06021, FROZEN PREPARED8,5588,3888, FROZEN CAKES5,5275,5985, Frozen Volume Decline Stabilises

15 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Three Year Value Trends Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

16 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Three Year Volume Trends Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

17 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Top 5 Species by Sector – to New species New Species Frozen

18 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Limited Supply Keeps Salmon Prices High (Q3 vs Q4 2010) Value (£'000) Volume (tonnes) Q3 (to 02/10/2010)Q4 (to 25/12/10)% changeQ3 (to 02/10/2010)Q4 (to 25/12/10)% change TOTAL SALMON139,515154, ,15410,840 7 CHILLED SALMON110,061124,086136,3606, AMBIENT SALMON 19,16120,36862,4562,604 6 FROZEN SALMON10,29310,095-21,3391, Norwegian Salmon export prices rose 20.2% in 2010 ( Globefish) By the close of 2010 the Chilean industry is showing signs of recovery. But continued demand and limited supply will keep prices high into 2011

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22 Q4 Trends analysis Total seafood value grew by 4% in Q4, principally driven by an 11% increase in total Salmon. Caused by seasonal demand and easing of supply. (2.0% over 52 wks) Compared to Q3, the value of chilled sector grew by 4% and frozen by 9%. With ambient falling by -7%. Compared to Q4 2009, the value of the chilled sector is up +2%, with both chilled and frozen up by 2% and 3% respectively.

23 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Summary 2010 In the 52 weeks to 25 th Dec 2010 the GB seafood retail market slowed. Worth £2.839 billion, up 0.6% on last year, with volume sales falling -1.0% to 377,468 tonnes. This modest value growth was driven by the chilled sector (3.2%) by positive growth in the top 3 chilled species: salmon (2%), Warm Water Prawns (9.4%), and Cod (5%). Both the value and volume of ambient fell sharply (-4.6% and -4.3% respectively), as a result of a corresponding fall in the volume and value of tuna and salmon. Wholesale skipjack prices rose by nearly 100% at the beginning of 2010 (Infofish Trade News). With the recent reduction in catch quota, rising demand from new markets (Asia) and uncertainty over oil and tinplate prices, further price increases are predicted for 2011 (Globefish)

24 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Summary……. Both the value and volume of frozen fell (-1.1 and -0.9% respectively), driven by corresponding falls in frozen natural, frozen fingers and frozen sauce. Chilled fingers continue their rapid value growth up +94%, from 77% in Q3 albeit still from a small base. The popularity of chilled meals continues, with value up 13%. Whilst frozen meals have experienced a corresponding fall. Shellfish meals increased by +23%. The chilled shellfish category continues to perform well, whilst frozen shellfish and ambient shellfish are steady or in decline.

25 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future What Does 2011 hold? Changing global dynamics as ‘new’ markets (Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Middle East & West Africa, displacing EU, USA and Japan, creating new opportunities Salmon: Chilean ISA crisis settles, brisk demand and limited supply will keep prices high Groundfish: Sustainability, pushed to counter falling prices resulting from pressure from Tilapia and Pangasius Tuna: Reduced quota and increased canning costs to drive prices Prawns: High demands and low harvests continue to drive costs

26 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Globefish Highlights and European Price reports are available from: reports.html reports.html And will be available free from the Seafood Information Network in Summer 2011 Global Market 2010

27 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Definitions All data is sourced to Nielsen Scan Track EPOS (till roll data). MAT = moving annual total – 52 weeks Segment definitions –Sushi – include all sushi, where fish & seafood are contained within. –Fingers – include all fish & seafood which are described as fingers. –Cakes – include all fish & seafood which are described as cakes. –Sauce – include all fish & seafood which is described as being in a sauce. –Batter –include all fish & seafood which is described as being coated in batter or battered. –Breaded – include all fish & seafood which is described as being coated in breadcrumbs or breaded. –Prepared – include all fish & seafood which has been treated/prepared in some way and is not included within the above values. Eg all fish & seafood sticks including sticks with a dipping sauce. –Natural – include all fish & seafood which has not been treated in any way. –The Cake or Finger value is a more important value, than Batter or Breaded. All segments can be further broken down into smoked/unsmoked and organic/standard

28 supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Seafish Market Information Index Nielsen Reports on the Seafood Information Network ( 10 new reports pcm): Main SIN Marketing Department Services page Nielsen Grocery Reports: Nielsen Retail Performance & Nielsen Essential Retail reportsNielsen Grocery Reports: Nielsen Retail Market Tracking Data: Ambient, context, prawn, cod, chilled, smoked, scampi & langoustine & salmon reportsNielsen Retail Market Tracking Data: Food Service Reports to Dec 10 Reports On Seafish.org ( 7 new reports pcm): Main Market Planning publications page Total seafood imports/exports by country (Seafish web resources are currently being rationalised. Latest Import Information is now on the Seafood Information Network here)(Seafish web resources are currently being rationalised. Latest Import Information is now on the Seafood Information Network here) Imports/exports by species and country Imports/exports by species and presentation Cod haddock and prawn imports by top chilled and frozen codes (a new report that breaks out the top chilled and frozen codes (by value) for cod, haddock and prawns by country of origin) Key Reports & Information: Retail market overview 2010 Protein comparisons March Seafood Supply Chain Trade Summary 2009 Scottish Sea Fisheries Statistics: Worldwide seafood production data - see FAO website:


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