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DATA MINING AND GENERATION FOR NPP REP IPXs. Relevant Published Statement “The projected dose for comparison to the early phase PAGs is normally calculated.

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Presentation on theme: "DATA MINING AND GENERATION FOR NPP REP IPXs. Relevant Published Statement “The projected dose for comparison to the early phase PAGs is normally calculated."— Presentation transcript:

1 DATA MINING AND GENERATION FOR NPP REP IPXs

2 Relevant Published Statement “The projected dose for comparison to the early phase PAGs is normally calculated [i.e., by RASCAL] for exposure during the first four days [96hrs] following the projected (or actual) start of a release. (cont.) EPA-400, p.5-6; RASCAL Manual v3.0.5, p.39

3 Published Statement (cont.) …The objective is to encompass the entire period of exposure to the plume and deposited material prior to implementation of any further, longer-term protective actions, such as relocation. (cont.) EPA-400, p.5-6; RASCAL Manual v3.0.5, p.39

4 Published Statement (cont.) … Four days [96hrs] is chosen here as the duration of exposure to deposited materials during the early phase because, for planning purposes, it is a reasonable estimate of the time needed to make measurements, reach decisions, and prepare to implement relocation.” EPA-400, p.5-6; RASCAL Manual v3.0.5, p.39

5 Key Thoughts About Exercise Data Exercises are artificial representations of reality and so also is the exercise data. Exercise data is intended to support and drive exercise play decision-making. Exercise data should logically follow the exercise scenario and its time-line. Exercise data does not have to be precise, only a reasonable approximation to precise.

6 RASCAL AS A PHASE TRANSITON AND IPX DATA GENERATION TOOL Flexible data projection capabilities Phase transition calculations up to 48 hrs Specific sampling point site data possible Data can be exported for modification Exported data supports GIS mapping Exported data can be used to initially load other calculators or modeling software to generate data for time periods > 48 hours

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9 Will use the WI June2009 IPX in the following examples.

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13 The ST component is important to exercise data generation.

14 Use of the monitored mixtures option gives the greatest flexibility in generating isotopic mix ratios when desired.

15 Soil deposition values are only impacted by the Iodines and particulates values. These are the most significant isotopic parameters to manage.

16 Release values (in Ci) for specific isotopes in mixture. Use this table to check isotopic ratios of interest, which for deposition is usually I-131 and Cs-137. Other particulate isotope values are obtained in other ways.

17 Run calculation to get data results.

18 Calculation Length (hrs) > Release Duration + Distance of interest Velocity of wind

19 LENGTH OF CALCULATION Duration of release (hours) = 4 hours (June 2009 IPX) Distance of interest (miles) = 10 miles (June 2009 IPX) Velocity of wind (mph) = 4 miles/hour (June 2009 IPX) Calculation Length (hrs) > Release Duration + Distance of Interest Velocity of wind > 4 hrs + 10 miles = 6.5 hrs => 8 hrs calc. 4 mph

20 View results of calculations.

21 Typically chosen display choice for PPX decision-making.

22 RASCAL graphic display used in determining sectors affected, as well as, the magnitude of the potential dose received.

23 Typical choice for displaying plume exposure rate data for a given time. This display choice can be used to develop time dependent field data.

24 Data is limited to RASCAL plume model determined locations and not data associated with pre-designated sampling points.

25 Another typically chosen display choice.

26 More on the special use of this Numeric Table feature coming up. Cell data has True North polar coordinate information associated with it but exported data does not, and therefore has limited GIS mapping use deg, 3.5 mi

27 Data points are spatially limited to the geographic locations that RASCAL determines by use of its two plume models (Gaussian and Lagrangian), and also does not have GIS coordinates available in this export feature which, if included, could better serve exercise data development. This is an export file shown inserted into Microsoft Excel.

28 RASCAL Finding a usable IPX Source Term (ST) by viewing the feature Numeric Table Display

29 FACTORS TO CONSIDER Magnitude of 1 st Source Term guesstimate Meteorological (Met) conditions of interest Use of Monitored Mixtures for I-131 and particulate isotopic ratio manipulation Any release reduction methods used Running RASCAL calculation to 50 miles Monitoring I-131 deposition projections Adjusting parameters to keep I-131 deposition within the 50-mile EPZ

30 Chose 50 mile calculation file. Examples are case files from the WI June 2009 IPX

31 Checking projected I-131 deposition levels based on latest ST guesstimate and Met.

32 Enter in this box the soil deposition concentration DRL of I-131 at which the milk DIL will be exceeded. Projected Max distance ~ 32 miles. This is a good ST for the IPX. It is greater than the 10 mile evacuation planning zone but less than the 50 mile ingestion planning zone. No changes needed in Source Term. Make sure soil DRL value is entered in the box below with the correct unit magnitude.

33 RASCAL Generating exercise data using the feature Special Receptors

34 Creative use of the “special receptors” feature in RASCAL can produce very usable IPX support data, both for the immediate post plume transition time-frame and as a data export starting point for the extended intermediate time-frame using other tools.

35 The special receptors feature allows the specific definition of data points of interest for locations such as hospitals, day cares, etc. It has other data uses as well, including that of supporting pre-exercise data development. This is the default special receptors table from which all other tables can be built to specification.

36 It is possible to get true centerline data values by using the special receptors feature and reference geographic polar coordinate parameters as summarized below. This can then be used in other modeling software. “Bearing from release” is the data point in degrees from True North. Once the desired data table is built, it can be saved in RASCAL as a text file for future use and modification.

37 Save the desired data table with a descriptive name for later retrieval when needed.

38 Choose “Special Receptors”, the type of data to be displayed and the appropriate time or time period of interest, then click on the “Display Selected Result” button to see those values along the centerline.

39 10 Mile EPZ Exposure Rate Centerline Values calculated at 0.5 mile intervals.

40 Centerline wind direction of June 2009 IPX (towards 303 o ). This technique can be used to get specific data at pre-defined field sampling points. Primary sectors of interest are P & Q.

41 Point Beach nuclear power plant pre-designated field sampling points. True North Sampling point of interest is P-5. Geographic coordinate data needed is: Bearing from True North = 300 o Distance from release point = 4.20 miles Distance from release in miles.

42 In this example the special receptors feature will be applied to the 10 mile pre-defined field sampling points established around the power plant and having specific pre-defined GIS Lat/Long coordinates useful for mapping. The needed sampling point data tables have been previously constructed.

43 Sectors of interest are P & Q due to wind direction. Can only open one file at a time.

44 Field sampling points are stored in text tables by single sector for flexibility in “assembling” combinations of sector data and also due to the limitation of the special receptors function to use a maximum of 20 data points at a time. Note this function is not self purging and will retain any values from previous loads if insufficient new data is loaded to overwrite those previous values. Sector P values loaded in table.

45 Choose “Special Receptors” and the type of data to be displayed and click on the “Display Selected Result” button to see those values at the pre-defined sampling points for the selected time. Time of interest can be selected and time dependent data tables generated.

46 This is RASCAL produced pre-designated sampling point specific data values associated with the time of calculation out to the 10 mile EPZ boundary. These data points must be manually copied and pasted out to allow their use in other calculation or GIS software. Lines are carry over lines from a previous load.

47 1. Highlight the data of interest. 2. Use Ctrl C to copy. 3. Paste in Xcel (use paste spcl) 4. Merge with GIS location data Data export

48 When merging the sampling point data with GIS coordinate (Lat/Long) data it is not necessary to keep the bearing and distance values if the sampling points are already mapped in a GIS environment. It is important that the sampling point name (i.e., PB_P-2) is the same in both data sets so there is a common field reference for linking and merging the two sets of data. You will have to remove the word miles from the table.

49 For the 50 mile calculation use “Special Receptors” and load the 50 mile centerline table in order to display the I-131 centerline values.

50 These values should ~match the RASCAL Numeric Table display values very closely at each of the specified distances as they were set to the same values in this special receptors table. It should be noted that any set of 20 distances can be use in the special receptors feature, i.e., every mile or any other increment. This increases the power of RASCAL data generation, within the 48 hr RASCAL calculation limit. Also, these values can be used as input to other calculation and modeling software to generate IPX data. Out to 50 mile range

51 non- RASCAL Generating IPX exercise data using RASCAL centerline export data as input to the NPP Utility Spreadsheet

52 KEY INPUT DATA NEEDED Start date (day0) of data generation Any 3 days of interest for data generation Centerline (CL) distance points of interest I-131 centerline/distance deposition concentration values from RASCAL Associated deposition concentrations of other isotopes of interest – see FRMAC light water reactor isotopic ratio tables for values spanning different time periods

53 Original NPP Utility Spreadsheet Concept of Use Eight general ranges (user defined distances from the source) with associated centerline data within a given range which is uniformly applied within the range.

54 I-131 values at chosen CL distances. Represent distances from the source and can be varied; i.e., Chosen CL values from RASCAL. Input screen This spreadsheet is complicated, only this input screen data should be changed.

55 Results screen – data can not be exported, must be copied and pasted. Note: Term “Dose Rate” should read “Exposure Rate” – change for IPX.

56 Centerline distance isotopic concentrations for date specified above. Off centerline values require independent calculations using other models.

57 Summarizes the Relocation determination calculations for location A. 1 yr DRL exceeded

58 Field sample analysis results by CL location and isotope for specified date.

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60 Note: Data values are zero due to early point in deposition – no milk impact yet.

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62 non- RASCAL Generating off centerline IPX exercise data and GIS maps using custom designed calculation applications

63 RASCAL projection data redisplayed using ArcGIS. Notice how the >230uR/Hr exposure rate (yellow) is not exceeded beyond the 10 mile EPZ. In this IPX the calculated relocation DRL is also not exceeded beyond the 10 mile EPZ. A hot spot was needed to meet the IPX relocation implementation mandate due to PPX evacuation going to the 10 mile ring.

64 IPX centerline data of interest moved from the Utility Spreadsheet (using copy and paste) to Microsoft Excel. In this environment the data can be used to generate off-centerline data needed for play.

65 Spreadsheet centerline data to be used in generating off centerline values for use in relocation DRL calculations and relocation decision-making.

66 Calculator for generating off centerline values. Formula for calculating value of cell C6. These off centerline values do not have associated GIS coordinate data available from this calculator and therefore data must be acquired another way.

67 Calculator for generating off centerline values. These off centerline values do not have associated GIS coordinate data available from this calculator and therefore data must be acquired another way.

68 Spreadsheet with I-131 centerline data for developing off centerline isopleth values needed to plot deposition map.

69 Isopleth contour calculation tool used to generate I-131 map data and GIS maps. Values are based on stability class. These off centerline values do not have associated GIS coordinate data available from this calculator and therefore data must be acquired another way.

70 Initial I-131 “Day 0” deposition projection. Medium green is extent (~36 mi) of concentration exceeding milk deposition DRL value (0.015 uCi/m 2 ). This is a GIS map manually constructed from calculated off centerline data.

71 Spreadsheet with Cs-137 centerline data for developing off centerline isopleths values needed to plot deposition map.

72 Isopleths contour calculation tool used to generate Cs-137 map data and GIS maps. These off centerline values do not have associated GIS coordinate data available from this calculator and therefore data must be acquired another way.

73 Initial Cs-137 “Day 0” deposition projection. Light brown represents concentration exceeding milk deposition DRL value (0.11 uCi/m 2 ). This is a GIS map manually constructed from calculated off centerline data.

74 non- RASCAL Generating Lat/Long values for centerline and off centerline data points using custom designed calculation applications

75 Lat/Long Calculator Factors to Consider The Latitude/Longitude Calculator is based on a flat geographic projection of the earth and simple trigonometric relationships. The further north/south (from the equator) you are basing the calculation, the greater the Long (east/west) error will be – IPX fudge factors are allowed to correct this (use centerline angle). The further from the NPP source the specific data point is, the greater the Long error will be (applying the above correction will fix this also). The Lat value is very close at all north/south locations and does not need any correction.

76 True North Centerline of Release Off Centerline point of interest. Longitude change from source point. Latitude change from source point. Relationships used in the Latitude/Longitude Calculator.

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78 NPP Reference Section

79 Variation in Longitude deg/mile with Latitude.

80 Section that calculates centerline Latitude/Longitude values.

81 Section that calculates left side off-centerline Latitude/Longitude values.

82 Section that calculates right side off-centerline Latitude/Longitude values.

83 non- RASCAL Generating IPX sample laboratory analysis slips using custom designed calculation applications

84 Key Calculator Design Points All pre-designated sampling points have a ratio relationship (dependent on the scenario) and were earlier determined by using the “special receptors” feature, i.e., by exposure rate. Exposure rate is directly related to the isotopic deposition concentrations in soil. Finding a pre-designated sampling point which is approximately co-located with an isotopic soil concentration centerline value from the output of the Utility Spreadsheet will allow calculation of any/all lab analysis slips of interest to IPX play. This can repeated for each day of interest.

85 Look for a pre-designated sampling point along the centerline of the plume / deposition footprint to use as the reference point for the lab slip generator calculations, i.e., P-2.

86 Lab slip calculator used to generate data associated with pre-designated 10 mile EPZ sampling points.

87 Soil sample lab slip for specific location, date and time.

88 Vegetation sample lab slip for specific location, date and time.

89 Milk sample lab slip for specific location, date and time. Note: Sample values are zero as insufficient time has elapsed for cows to process vegetation contamination into milk.

90 Surface water sample lab slip for specific location, date and time.

91 Key Summary Thoughts Exercise data should reasonably support the scenario and be logical, not necessarily precise. The Centerline is the Center of focus for data. We spend % of our energy developing and supporting exercises, our exercise design and development TOOLS should do this also. Incorporating GIS into exercise play significantly enhances the quality and retention of the learning experience, and improves the outcome. Relocation is not a secondary evacuation, and should not be rushed during exercise play. The resources to support IPX play are just as important as those needed to support PPX play.

92 RASCAL v4.0 Beta Special Receptor Tables Have 50 Lines. Added Total Isotopic Deposition Option Calculates Intermediate Phase PAGs Removed Open Window Display Option Added Footprint GIS Shapefile Export Expanded Footprint GIS Point File Options Modified ST, Release Path & Met Inputs Modified Field Measurement to Dose Joint NRC/FEMA design & development needed to ensure both PPX & IPX support

93 ANY QUESTIONS - ????

94 Dr. Perry J. Manor, PhD Nuclear Engineer, REP Planner Radiation Protection Section WI Dept. of Health Services (608) (phone) (608) (Office fax) (608) (RPS fax)


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