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Mathematicians Criminologists Computer scientists Crowd management practitioner Group Composition.

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Presentation on theme: "Mathematicians Criminologists Computer scientists Crowd management practitioner Group Composition."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Mathematicians Criminologists Computer scientists Crowd management practitioner Group Composition

3 Group Process

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5 Modeling Project Social dynamics Macro factors – Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) Micro factors – Cellular Automata (CA) Threshold analysis: Major crowd disturbance

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7 Macro Factors Effective social control mechanisms Police – city – transit Structured environmental factors Road design – event location Unfavourable situational factors Suitable target – podiums in the environment Unstructured technological connectivity Text messaging – Twitter – Facebook Volatile demographics Younger people – intoxication – gender distribution High risk event Divisive event – non-family oriented

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9 Creating the FCM Enter here:to(affected) c1c2c3c4c5c6P(incident)Please Enter: c1 1Very Low c2 2Low fromc3 3Moderate (affecting)c4 4High c5 5Very High c6 Increases Words:to(affected) Decreases c1c2c3c4c5c6P(incident) c1 Cohesive Social Control Mechanisms c2 Structured Environmental Factors c3 Unfavourable Situational Factors (affecting)c4 Technological Connectivity c5 Volatile Demographics c6 Risk of Event Colourto(affected) c1c2c3c4c5c6P(incident) c1 0000 c20 0000 fromc300 000 (affecting)c400 000 c500 00 c6000 0

10 FCM – CA relationship

11 Micro Interactions – CA model Each cell has a stable character A type person B type person C type person Each cell has a disruptive risk -1↔ disruptive 0↔ observing - susceptible 1↔ active guardianship A (-0.8) A (-0.5) B (-0.1) C (+ 1)C (+0.5)

12 Disruptive to Guarding

13 Fuzzy Transitions 9 rules: one for each combination: {A, B, C}  {Disrupting, Observing, Guarding} All rules applied fuzzily each iteration Takagi-Sugeno-Kang: Each rule is a mathematical function, e.g., f(x, y) = y - x

14 Group Process

15 CA transition rules Deteriorating A, B  Disruptive:-rn 2 exponential negative Preventing A, B  Guarding, C  Disruptive: rn 2 exponential positive Boredom B  Observing:-rsp(s) linear inward Respecting A, C  Inactive, C  Guarding: 0 no interaction

16 Results – Unfavourable FCM

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18 Results – Favourable FCM

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20 Results – More A Types

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22 Results – Fewer A Types

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24 Future Directions Model Adjustments to enhance precision FCM expansion – factor interaction CA modification – non-adjacent cell influences Data testing and further validation of model Verification with crowd control experts

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