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1 Competitive Advantage Period & Growth Rate Analysis Chris Argyrople, CFA Concentric.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Competitive Advantage Period & Growth Rate Analysis Chris Argyrople, CFA Concentric."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Competitive Advantage Period & Growth Rate Analysis Chris Argyrople, CFA Concentric

2 2 Competitive Advantage Period (CAP) Economic Theory suggests that companies can’t earn “Economic Rents” Firms earnining ROIC > WACC attract competition, driving down returns to WACC ROIC WACC CAP

3 3 What CAP Means Managers try to maximize area under curve by moving out on both axes ! ROIC HigherLonger ReturnsCAP WACC Super Companies: CAP > 20 Years Great Companies:CAP > 15 Years Most S&P 500 Cos:5 Years < CAP < 10 Years

4 4 Reality: CAP can be Very Long Economic Thoery does not reflect the reality of the stock market: CAP can be very large (Economic Theory states that it will be low).

5 5 Buffett Secret To Generate Excess Returns, Buy: –Value Creating Firms (Creates EVA) –Where CAP growing or stable

6 6 Calculating CAP Value = Value of Current Ops + Forward Plan NOPAT + Inv (ROIC - WACC) CAP WACCWACC (1 + WACC) Intrinsic Val / Share = (Value + Cash - Debt) Shares Inv = Incremental Annualized Investment Note: formula assumes “next year”

7 7 Using CAP Determine how much of value is growth (mgt must act if no value to forward plan) Analyst can plug for: ROIC, WACC, or CAP

8 8 Value Based Framework Value CreationValue Drivers Cash FlowEBITDA Margins RiskCost of Capital Sustainab. of ReturnsComp. Adv. Period EVA Measures: Magnitude & Sustainability of Returns

9 9 EVA TM vs. FCF Model FCF Model Value = PV(FCF) + PV(terminal FCF) EVA Model Value = Capital + Cumul. PV of Future EVA ** 2 Models should produce same result ** Can project and discount EVA

10 10 Incremental Analysis Examine Incremental EVA (year-over-year) ROI on Incremental Capital = Delta EVA / Delta Invested Capital Note: 1) Like first derivative in Calculus. 2) Some value derived from changing returns on existing investments. 3) ROIC can fall while ROI Increm is Rising

11 11 Using EVA to Make Money Value Investing: Mean Reversion Momentum Investing: Improving ROIC Growth Investing: High ROIC, Sustainable Time / Accuracy TradeOff: Stern Stewart uses 164 potential adjustments, about 7 matter CSFB: LOOKING FOR CHANGE IN EVA, NOT ABSOLUTE (I DISAGREE)

12 12 Risk Best Risk Measure Debt / Total Capital (Market Values, not Book Values) Examine PVGO as % of Stock Price

13 13 CSFB Methodology Screen for Increasing ROIC or CAP Look at Volatility Look for companies where PVGO as a % of Stock price is zero: this is a free option on Value Creation

14 14 Thoughts on P/E Multiples Market Average is 20X right now It is quite easy to go from 15X to 20X A company trading at 10X likely has problems -- be careful It is also easy to go from 30X to 20X Thus, mean reversion is likely near the mean, ask tough questions away from the mean As always, analyze each case separately

15 15 Valuation ShortRun vs LongRun

16 16 Multiple EXPANSION

17 17 What is the Price of a Stock? Price = Dollars paid for the stock Earnings = what you relate the price to Thus, P/E ratio relates the price to the earnings stream purchased. Lower P/E is better, all else equal but, how do you compare P/Es with firms that have different growth rates?

18 18 PEG Ratio PEG Ratio = P/E / growth dimensionless Relates P/E to growth Financial Press talks about never paying a P/E higher than the underlying growth rate of a stock -- i.e. they recommend never paying more than 1 times the growth rate. I disagree with this strict interpretation, although I strongly agree with the intent.

19 19 PEG Ratio: Implementation What do you pay for a non-growth firm? Easy. Pay the current earnings divided by the cap rate (WACC). Thus, for a non- growth firm, pay no more than the inverse of the WACC. Conversely, what do you pay for a firm growing 100% per year? Do you pay a P/E of 100? No because the growth rate is likely to trend towards a lower mean.

20 20 What PEG do you pay?? Ke = 12% Growth RatePressRealistically 0%zero1 / K e = 8 X 5% / K OR = 13 10% = 18 X 15% = 23 X 20% = 28 X 25%2530 X (my limit)

21 21 How P/E relates to Growth Constant Growth DDM P = Theoretical Stock Price based on DDM D1 = next years Dividend P = D1 / ( k - g )k = CAPM cost of capital = rf + B* ( E(rm) - rf ) E(r) = D1 / P 0 + gg = growth rate = ROE x plowback ratio

22 22 How P/E relates to Growth E(r) = Divid. Yield + Divid. growth Price = PV(EPS) + PV(growth) = E1 / k + PV(growth) P / E = 1 / k + PV(growth) / E P = E *(1 - b) / (k - g) P/E = ( 1 - b ) / ( k - g ) p/e positively related to growth

23 23 Why Does DDM Break Down? Growth > WACC No Dividends (ok, replace with Earnings) Sustainable Growth g = ROE x Plowback ROE < 0 Can’t forecast stages in multistage model

24 24 Seven Sources of Growth Price Volume Mix Acquisitions Cost Cutting Reinvestment of Internally Gener. Cash External Cash Raised for projects where: ROIC > WACC

25 25 Coca Cola Spreadsheet

26 26 Coke Example -- one cent miss The Coke example clarifies why a stock crashes when the company misses EPS by a penny A one percent downward revision in the future growth estimate for the company drives the DDM stock valuation down from $84 to $56 Thus, THE PENNY MATTERS DUE TO THE REVISION IN THE GROWTH RATE

27 27 Coke, Oct 1998 New 1998E $1.46 (it was above $1.80 at one time). Stock now at $67 Where does it go from here?

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