Presentation on theme: "Intelligent Finance Component IV – Financial Strategic Analysis Second International Workshop on Intelligent Finance (IWIF-II) 6.-8. July 2007, Chengdu,"— Presentation transcript:
Intelligent Finance Component IV – Financial Strategic Analysis Second International Workshop on Intelligent Finance (IWIF-II) July 2007, Chengdu, China Prof Dr PAN Heping, Director of PRC, IIFP, SIIF & SSFI Prediction Research Centre (PRC) University of Electronic Science &Technology of China （ UESTC ） International Institute for Financial Prediction (IIFP), Finance Research Centre of China Southwestern University of Finance & Economics (SWUFE) Swingtum Institute of Intelligent Finance (SIIF) Swingtum School of Financial Investment (SSFI) Room 340/306 Yifu Building, Chengdu , China Phone ： , Mobile ： URL Chinese ： URL English ：
Intelligent Finance Component IV – Financial Strategic Analysis Second International Workshop on Intelligent Finance (IWIF-II) July 2007, Chengdu, China 潘和平 （博士、教授、长江学者） 电子科技大学预测研究中心主任 西南财经大学中国金融研究中心国际金融预测研究所所长 形势冲智能金融研究院院长 & 形势冲金融投资学校校长 成都市建设北路二段四号逸夫楼 340/306 电话： , 手机： 电子邮件 : 中文网站： www. 形势冲.com, 英文网站：
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF3 Contents 1.A Masterpiece of A Strategic Trader 2.Financial Strategic Analysis (FSA) – Why? 3.Objectives and Contents of FSA 4.The Four Levels of Financial Market Analysis 5.The Four Levels of Trader Transformation 6.The Master Trader 7.The Mechanical Trader 8.The Subjective Trader 9.The Intuitive Trader 10.Swingtum Trading Principles (Appendix: Analogies from the Art of War)
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF4 1. A Masterpiece by A Strategic Trader - John Templeton Shorting NASDAQ with a trigger – before the end of lock-up period
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF6 Throughout 1999 until 13 March 2000, dot-com stocks zoomed to absurdly high levels. Many value investors, realizing these stocks were wildly overvalued, shorted them all the way up. This included some legendary money managers. Having shorted even a bit too early before the peak could cause unlimited losses. E.g. Julian Robertson eventually couldn’t bear the pain any more and quit in disgust, shutting down his fund entirely. (Soros took some painful loss too). However, John Templeton, at the tender age of 87, made a brilliant and enormously profitable foray back into the stockmarket. A True Story about John Templeton, told by Mark Tier (2004, 2006)
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF7 Three months before the NASDAQ peaked, he discovered a “trigger” that allowed him to initiate one of the most creative short selling strategies ever devised. The venture capitalists and insiders who floated these internet companies were typically restricted from selling their stock until six months or a year after the company had gone public. Templeton’s insight was to use the end of this lock-up period as his trigger. He systematically initiated short positions in 84 different dot-com companies 11 days before the lock- up period for each stock expired. 18 months later, he’d added $86 million to his wealth.
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF8 During the Internet bubble and anti-bubble Fundamental Investors missed Technical Traders lost But Strategic Speculators made money - Integrate Fundamental, Technical and Strategic Analysis (like John Templeton)
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF9 In order to gain and keep gaining absolute positive and nontrivial returns of investment in the global financial markets, it is not enough just to have - theoretical knowledge (financial economics), - mathematical models (quantitative finance), and - empirical methodologies (fundamental and technical analysis). We need something more, something very fundamental, something which requires mentality, courage, and integration. There are Limitations of Economic, Fundamental, Technical Analysis: Economic Analysis is mostly about the macroeconomic factors, but lack of a comprehensive picture of the macroeconomic trends, cycles, capital distribution and money flows on the global, national and regional levels. Fundamental Analysis is mostly about the company-specific financial factors, but lack of a comprehensive picture of the company situation in the market, in the sectors, and in its own life cycle, including the situation of strategic investors relative to the other share holders. Technical Analysis is mostly about the market prices and volumes, but lack of a comprehensive picture of the global or market-wide distribution of strategic investors and their intentions relatively to the other investors. 2. Financial Strategic Analysis (FSA) – Why?
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF10 Global Macro Economical Situation and Intent Analysis Global macro economical trends, cycles, seasonalities, and probabilistic projection of politico-economic events, situations and strategic intents of governments, multi-national companies, etc Global Macro Financial Situation and Intent Analysis Global macro financial market trends, cycles, seasonalities and probabilistic projection of financial events, situations and strategic intents of international investment funds, possible or developing financial bubbles and anti-bubbles as well as market crashes, etc. Market-Specific Situation and Intent Analysis For a specific market of interest, are there market makers? Who are the minority of strategic investors? Where are their capital allocations? Where is the market price in its primary trend – accummulation, lifting, distribution or dumping? Where are the secondary and minor trends – bull or bear trending, or range trading, or breaking out of volatility or range? What are the strategic investors thinking on, planning to do, or scheduling to execute? How will the retail investors react to possible scenarios? 3. Objectives and Contents of FSA
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF11 4. The Four Levels of Financial Market Analysis Fundamental Analysis (including Macro- & Micro-economics) Mind Analysis Technical Analysis Market Reality Gap Psychological Gap Size Gap Strategic Analysis
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF12 Fundamental Analysis (FA) is typically economical approach, which looks most scientific, but there is a market gap from fundamentals to prices where there are all human investors/traders interpreting the fundamentals and the prices in extremely nonlinear ways. However, the number one weakness of FA is not to factor in other traders as variables, so there is a market reality gap between what should be and what is actually. Technical Analysis (TA) fills in this market reality gap by studying the market activity and price patterns and macro-phenomenological behavior patterns of market participants. TA is far superior to a pure FA as it keeps the trader focused on what the market is doing now in relation to what it has done in the past, instead of focusing on what the market should be doing based solely on what is logical and reasonable as dictated by an economic theory or model. However, TA has missed a critical point: it does not factor in your own conditions as variables, so it creates a psychological gap between your prediction using TA backed by FA and your actual trading.
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF13 The Shift to Mental Analysis (MA) Masters of Trading Psychology – Mental Analysis: Van K. Tharp (1998): Trade your Way to Financial Freedom McGraw Hill. Van K. Tharp and Brian June (2000): Financial Freedom through Electronic Day Trading. McGraw Hill. Mark Douglas (2000): Trading in the Zone – master the market with confidence, discipline and a winning attitude. New York Institute of Finance. Larry Williams (1999): Long-Term Secretes to Short-Term Trading. Wiley. Alexander Elder (1993): Trading for A Living: Psychology, Trading Tactics and Money Management. Wiley. Oliver Velez & Greg Capra (2000): Tools and Tactics for the Master Day Trader. McGraw Hill.
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF14 The Final Gateway through consistently profitable trading to your financial freedom is Mental Analysis (MA). The aim of MA is to let you develop a compact set of states of mind of consistently profitable trader, which we call the master trader’s mindset. The master trader’s mindset consists of beliefs about the market and trading, beliefs about yourself, your confidence, your conviction, your carefree detachment and your conduciveness.
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF15 5. The Four Levels of Trader Transformation Strategic Trader Mechanical Trader Intuitive Trader Subjective Trader
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF16 5. The Four Levels of Trader Transformation Strategic Trader Mechanical Trader Intuitive Trader Subjective Trader There are inviolable principles on each level A higher level should never violate the principles of its lower levels
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF17 A consistently profitable trader is a natural human being, who dances with the market peacefully with many little contacts but without hard conflicts. There are three levels a trader has to climb up to a strategic master trader through self transformation which generally takes 10 years or more before becoming a master trader. The first level is mechanical trader with objective beliefs, neutral attitude, and mechanical tactics. The second level is subjective trader with his evolving set of advantageous strategies. The third level is intuitive trader who trades carefree with his intuition and instinct without deliberate analysis.
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF18 6.The Master Trader Master Traders belong to the stardom of the civilization of mankind, as great as other great political leaders, military commanders, intellectual thinkers, scientists, innovators, entrepreneurs and alike. The Master Trader lives a peaceful life, trades the financial markets with his personalized trading system, generates consistent profits with a steadily up-trending equity curve. The Master Trading System is a crystal-clearly structured integration of market selection, trade planning, market timing, entry, stop loss, exit, position, portfolio and risk management. The Master Trader and his trading system are unified together, so the Master Trader possesses a complete set of mental qualities required to run his trading system reliably.
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF19 1)T. Rowe Price: Mr Growth Stock 2)Warren Buffett: A Share in a Business 3)John Templeton: Search Many Markets 4)Richard Rainwater: Ring the Changes 5)Paul Cabot: All the Damn Facts 6)Philip Fisher: The Cutting Edge 7)Benjamin Graham: Quantify, Quantify 8)Mark Lightbrown: Firsthand Knowledge 9)John Neff: Systematic Bargain Hunter 10)Julian Robertson: The Queen Bee 11)Jim Rogers: Far Out 12)George Soros: Macro Games 13)Philip Carret: Think Small 14)Michael Steinhardt: Strategic Trader 15)Ralph Wanger: Zebras and Other Small Metaphors 16)Robert Wilson: Without A Rope 17)Peter Lynch: Relentless Pursuit Ref: “Money Masters of our Time” by John Train, 2000
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF20 Ref: “Money Masters of our Time” by John Train, 2000 There are several schools of investing in Master Traders: Growth Value Technology Emerging Markets Specialty Companies Micro-Caps Turnarounds Top-Down Bottom-Up And so on
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF21 Ref: “Market Wizards - Interviews with Top Traders” by Jack Schwager, )Michael Marcus: Blighting Never Strikes Twice 2)Bruce Kovner: The World Trader 3)Richard Dennis: A Legend Retires Futures & 4)Paul Tudor Jones: The Art of Aggressive Trading Currencies 5)Gary Bielfeldt: Yes, They Do Trade T-Bonds in Peoria 6)Ed Seykota: Everybody Gets What They Want 7)Larry Hite: Respecting Risk 8)Michael Steinhardt: The Concept of Variant Perception 9)William O’Neil: The Art of Stock Selection Mostly 10)David Ryan: Stock Investment as a Treasure Hunt Stocks 11)Marty Schwartz: Champion Trader 12)James B. Rogers, Jr.: Buying Value and Selling Hysteria A Little Bit 13)Mark Weinstein: High-Percentage Trader of Everything 14)Brian Gelber: Broker Turned Trader 15)Tom Baldwin: The Fearless Pit Trader The View from 16)Tony Saliba: “One-Lot” Triumphs the Floor
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF22 Ref: “New Market Wizards - America’s Top Traders” by Jack Schwager, )Bill Lipschutz: The Sultan of Currencies 2)Randy McKay: Veteran Trader 3)William Eckhardt: The Mathematician 4)The Silence of the Turtles Futures 5)Monroe Trout: The Best Return that Low Risk Can Buy 6)Al Weiss: The Human Chart Encyclopedia 7)Stanley Druckenmiller: The Art of Top-Down Investing Fund 8)Richard Driehaus: The Art of Bottom-Up Investing Managers 9)Gil Blake: The Master of Consistency & 10)Victor Sperandeo: Markets Grow Old Too Timers 11)Tom Basso: Mr Serenity Multiple 12)Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading the Music of the Markets Market Players 13)CRT: The Trading Machine 14)Mark Ritchie: God in the Pits The Money 15)Joe Ritchie: The Intuitive Theoretician Machines 16)Blair Hull: Getting the Edge 17)Jeff Yass: The Mathematics of Strategy
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF23 Ref: “Stock Market Wizards - America’s Top Stock Traders” by Jack Schwager, )Sturt Walton: Back from the Abyss 2)Michael Lauer: The Wisdom of Value, the Folly of Fad 3)Steve Watson: Dialing for Dollars 4)Dana Galante: Against the Current 5)Mark D. Cook: Harvesting S&P Profits 6)Alphonse “ Buddy” Fletcher Jr.: Win-Win Investing 7)Ahmet Okumus: From Istanbul to Wall Street Bull 8)Mark Minervini: Stock Around the Clock 9)Steve Lescarbeau: The Ultimate Trading System 10)Michael Masters: Swimming through the Markets 11)John Bender: Questioning the Obvious 12)Claudio Guazzoni: Eliminating the Downside 13)David Shaw: The Quantitative Edge 14)Steve Cohen: The Trading Room
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF24 Ref: “Trend Following – How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets” by Michael Covel, )Bill Dunn 2)John W. Henry 3)Ed Seykota 4)Keith Campbell 5)Jerry Parker 6)Salem Abraham: Texas Pioneer 7)Richard Dennis 8)Richard Donchian 9)Jesse Livermore and Dickson Watts
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF25 Ref: “The Super Analysts – World’s Leading Stock Market Investors and Analysts” by Andrew Leeming, )Stuart Baker: All that glitters is not gold 2)Mark Mobius: The true believer 3)Brian Johnson: A champion team will always beat a team of champions 4)David Fisher: The holistic approach 5)Lise Buyer: Keep your eyelids up to see what you can see 6)Tim Jensen: Nothing is forever right or forever wrong 7)Pierre Prentice: Patience is a virtue 8)Murdoch Murchison: Buying pessimism and selling optimism 9)Michael Mauboussin: Shift happens 10)Joe Petch: Asian values 11)Godon Hall: The first virtue 12)William Low and Alistair Veitch: The weighting Game
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF26 New Players Come In: From Tacticians thru ‘Rocket Scientists’ to Financial Strategists with Economics, Maths, Physics & CI For Example Larry Williams – World Record Holder on Robins Futures Trading Competition, turned $10,000 to $1.1Million in a year. Jim Simons, a mathematician, founder and driver of the Medallion Fund, the Best Performer of Hedge Funds in the last 10 years. The Prediction Company, Santa Fe Institute. ……
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF27 Observations about Masters Traders 1)Consistently profitable trading is a finest art which takes 5-10 years for a quality trader to climb the learning curve before reaching the paradise of financial freedom. 2)There is no luck in professional portfolio investing, any more than in master chess or weiqi. It is a skilled craft, involving many decisions a week. 3)There is no holy grail to trading success. The methodologies employed by the master traders cover the entire spectrum from purely technical to purely fundamental and everything in between. 4)The population of all the traders follows a pyramid or even a power-law distribution with a minority of winning traders on the top in contrast with the rest majority of other traders down under.
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF28 5)Although the styles of master traders can be very different, many common denominators are evident: they all - have a driving desire to success - have absolute confidence - have a personalized methodology - have absolute discipline - are very serious, devoted and passionate - have rigid risk control - have sufficient patience - act independently - understand that losing is part of the game - love what they are doing.
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF29 6)Virtually every master trader has experienced innumerous bloody mistakes, unforgiving lessons, and multiple wipe-outs. 7)A master trader developed his personalized methodology – trading system guaranteed by his absolute discipline and confidence through self transformation, more like zen – the enlightenment. 8)The final gate to paradise of trading is a compact set of states of mind – your beliefs about the markets and about yourself together with your trading system with edge and your conditions to live through.
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF30 7. The Mechanical Trader Prerequisites you have a working knowledge of Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis and you have a proper capital to start trading. Foundation I – Beliefs about the Market you have a set of objective beliefs about the market. Foundation II – Beliefs about yourself you have a set of firm beliefs about yourself. Foundation III – Your System with Edge you have a working trading system of your own with an edge Foundation IV – Your Conviction on Your System you are convicted that your system wins in the long run, so you dare to use your system, and you are using your system to trade for a living and for your prosperity.
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF31 Your Beliefs about the Market and Trading [based on Douglas (2004), with extension] 1)The Uncertainty Principle – Reality Check on the micro-level: the market can do virtually anything at any time. 2)The Probability Principle – Feasibility Footing on the macro-level: Events that have probable outcomes can produce consistent results if you can get the odds in your favor and there is a large enough sample size. 3)The Gambling Principle – the Gambler’s Mindset The best traders treat trading like a numbers game similar to the way casinos and professional gamblers approach gambling. 4)The Consistency Principle – Mechanical Process The best traders consistently predefine their risks before entering a trader, cut their losses short, and have a systematic regimen for taking profits. 5)The Edge Principle – Get the Odds in Favor The best traders have developed a personalized trading system which can seize opportunities where the odds are in their favor and only trade with an edge. 6)The Opportunity Principle – Go with the Flow The best traders enter a trade whenever one of their edges is met with the current situation even uncertainty is always there. 7)The Multi-Level Principle – The Micro-Macro Transcend In order to have a significant edge on a day, one needs to work on the intraday time frame according to the Probability Principle.
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF32 8. The Subjective Trader Virtually most of the quantitative intelligent finance is about Converting Information to Advantage to Consistent Profits Involving the following decisions: (1)Market Selection – Relentless Pursuit (2)Market Timing – Dynamics Modeling and Prediction (Price, Volatility, Impacts) (3)Entry – Sub-Time Frame (4)Stop Loss – Beyond Volatility (or Hedge) (5)Profit Taking – Price Projection or Let Market Push (6)Position Sizing – Reward/Risk Ratio (7)Portfolio Management – Multi-Market Dynamics (8)Arbitrage – Market Ecology
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF33 9. The Intuitive Trader (not much to say) Follow Trends in Motion and Dance with the Market
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF Swingtum Trading Principles (Pan 2006) For Expert Trader: 1.Survival of the Fittest 2.Enter Your Zone of Freedom 3.Avoid the Markets of Your Disadvantage 4.Be Practical 5.Be Empirical 6.Keep It Simple, Stupid! (KISS) 7.Trade Carefree For Master Trader: 8.Only Trade High-Probability Events 9.Invest First, Investigate Later 10.Exit First, Analyze Later 11.Concentrate with Minimal Diversification 12.Ride Reflexivity Process Consciously 13.Use Leverages, but Judiciously 14.Follow Your System Religiously
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF35 The End of Intelligent Finance Component IV – Financial Strategic Analysis Thank you for your attention!
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF36 Appendix: Analogies from the Art of War (Sun Zi “Art of War”, 500 BC) 孙子兵法金融原则 先为不可胜先为不可亏 以待敌之可胜以待市之可盈 不可胜在己不可亏在己 可胜在敌可盈在市 能为不可胜能为不可亏 不能使敌之可胜不能使市之可盈 多算胜、少算不胜有利则动，无利则止 兵贵胜、不贵久重在盈利、不在久留 知彼知己、百战不殆知庄知己、进退有度
Proc IWIF-II, 2007, Chengduwww.swingtum.com/institute/IWIF37 Mao Zedong “10 Major Principles of War” (20th century) 毛泽东兵法金融原则 打得赢就打炒得赢就炒 （随势处市 ) 打不赢就走炒不赢就走 （止损出局） 保存有生力量保护交易资本 打运动战顺应动势 打歼灭战放逐利润 （不设上限） 集局部小胜为全局大胜集短期优势为中长期盈利