Presentation on theme: "Causal Reasoning Observation Large text on my Internet screen Question Why the large text? Hypothesis Accessibility features are activated Evidence Normal."— Presentation transcript:
Causal Reasoning Observation Large text on my Internet screen Question Why the large text? Hypothesis Accessibility features are activated Evidence Normal ways of adjustment don’t work.
Testing Causal Reasoning Does hypothesis account for event? Account for all relevant elements Suggest a causal agent Has analogous hypothesis been shown to be accurate? Is there a better hypothesis?
Causal Analogy Observation Some got sick at picnic, but not others. Question Why did some get sick? Hypothesis The potato salad was bad. Evidence The sick ones ate the potato salad.
Testing Causal Analogy Are the cases reported accurately? Does hypothesis account for event? Account for all relevant elements Suggest a causal agent Is there a better contrast available? Is there a better counter-analogy?
Causal Generalization Sample of population Suspected cause applied to one group. Cause withheld from control group. Does cause correlate with effect? Is the significance beyond coincidence? Could a cause produce both effects? Does cause consistently precede effect? Does cause have a plausible agent?
Exercise A1 Observation Birds observed before crash of bomber. Question What caused crash? Hypothesis Birds were sucked into engines Evidence This was the first crash of the new model. Evaluation: Causal agent is clear and analogous examples exist.
Exercise A3 Observation Increase in literacy, standard of living, economy, and health. Question What caused these increases? Hypothesis Increase in population caused them. Evidence: Minds working together solve problems Evaluation: Other plausible agents exist. How about other populous countries?
Exercise A5 Observation Dan White killed Mosconni and Milk. Question Why did he kill them? Hypothesis Junk foods made White go into frenzy. [He was not responsible for killings.] Evidence: His urge for junk foods was uncontrollable. Evaluation: Is agent sufficient? Has it happened before?
Exercise B1 Causal hypothesis: An angel on the TV screen An electronic phenomenon Tests: Ask others if they see an angel Try to duplicate the image mechanically.
Exercise B3 Causal hypothesis: Americans are less fascinated with small cars. Americans cars have improved in quality. Tests: See whether Americans are buying a higher percent of medium-sized cars. See whether economic factors exist.
Exercise D1 Cause: Internship program at Mills University Effect: Mills students are more employable.
Exercise D3 Cause: American health care system is more expensive than the Canadian system. Effect: Lower-income Americans visit doctors and hospitals less than lower-income Canadians.
Exercise E1 Observation: Drop in production of goods Enumerated causes: Lazy blue-collar workers Government regulations New white-collar jobs (conclusion) Other plausible causes? Out-sourcing to other countries
Exercise F1 Generalization: Gun ownership can reduce crime. Cause: Fear of confronting victim with a gun Effect: Reduced crime when victims might have guns Evaluation: Are criminals telling the truth? Is effect significant?
Exercise F3 Generalization: Lighting can control hyperactivity. Cause: Switch to incandescent lighting Effect: Reduced hyperactivity Evaluation: Small size of the sample Lack of control group Unexplained agent Lack of consistent results
Exercise F5 Generalization: Gun training programs reduce crime. Cause: Training in the use of guns Effect: Reduced incidence of rape and robbery Evaluation: No control group (other possible causes?) Were citizens of Kennesaw trained?