Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Damage and loss prediction model

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Damage and loss prediction model"— Presentation transcript:

1 Damage and loss prediction model
based on the vulnerability of building types Jochen Schwarz & Holger Maiwald Bauhaus-Universität Weimar, Earthquake Damage Analysis Center 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence: Managing Flood Risk, Reliability and Vulnerability, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, May 6-8, 2008

2 Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Motivation

3 Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Reasons for the study Distribution of losses in Saxony after the flood 2002* * after Sächsische Staatskanzlei (2002) 3

4 Reasons for the study Building type: masonry Damage grade: D2
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Reasons for the study Building type: masonry Damage grade: D2 Primary influence factor: Inundation level Building type: masonry Damage grade: D2-3 (slight settlements) Primary influence factor: Inundation level 4

5 Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Reasons for the study In addition to Flood Action Side, the impact of structural parameters (Resistance Side) has to be considered. Can the procedures developed for the Risk Analysis of Earthquakes be adapted to Flood Risk Analysis procedures? If “yes”:  Development of a Damage and Loss Prediction Model based on an Engineering Evaluation System of Buildings 5

6 Reasons for the study „Step 1“ Building type: clay Damage grade: D5
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Reasons for the study „Step 1“ Building type: clay Damage grade: D5 Special influence factor: Flow velocity and circulations Building type: masonry with clay mortar Damage grade: D5 Primary influence factor: Inundation level Flow velocity 6

7 Reasons for the study „Step 1 + 1/2“ Building type: clay
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Reasons for the study „Step 1 + 1/2“ Building type: clay Building type: masonry Inundation level Flow velocity Duration Building type Inundation level Flow velocity Duration Building type 7

8 Reasons for the study Building type: masonry
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Reasons for the study Building type: masonry Building type: masonry (clay mortar) Inundation level Flow velocity Duration Building type Inundation level Flow velocity Duration Building type 8

9 Classification of different damage cases (samples S1 - S10)
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basic elements First approach Classification of different damage cases (samples S1 - S10) Damage Grade Di S1 1 2 3 4 5 S8 S7 S6 S10 S9 S5 S2 S3 S4 Bauweise Überflu-tungshöhe Verweilzeit Fließ-geschwin-digkeit Einflussparameter Building type Inundation level Influence parameter Duration Flow velocity Influence: high moderate low Inundation level [%] 9

10 Engineering Evaluation System of Buildings
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basics of the Study Engineering Evaluation System of Buildings

11 Data base Dataset 1: EDAC – questionnaire
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Data base Dataset 1: EDAC – questionnaire Saxony August 2002 Baden Württemberg Dataset 2: MEDIS – telephone interview Bavaria September 2005 Saxony April 2006 11

12 Basic elements „New Step“ Criteria Observed effect / measure
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basic elements Criteria Observed effect / measure Damage grade Di D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 Building physical damage Penetration of supporting and non-structural walls and the floor slabs Chemical damage Pollution (mud, excrements …) Contamination (oil, chemicals) Structural damage Impressed doors and windows Slight cracks in structural elements Major cracks / deformations in structural walls and slabs Settlements Partial failure of primary structural elements Collapse of major parts of the building Rehabilitation measures Cleaning of penetrated elements Replacement of extension elements Replacement of non-structural elements Replacement of structural elements Demolition of building required „New Step“ 12

13 Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Damage grade D1 Drawing Example No structural damage Slight non-structural damage Only penetration and pollution 13

14 Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Damage grade D2 Drawing Example No to slight structural damage Moderate non-structural damage Slight cracks in supporting elements Impressed doors and windows Contamination Replacement of extension elements 14

15 Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Damage grade D3 Drawing Example Moderate structural damage Heavy non-structural damage Major cracks and/or deformations in supporting walls and slabs Settlements Replacement of non-structural elements 15

16 Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Damage grade D4 Drawing Example Heavy structural damage Very heavy non-structural damage Structural collapse of supporting walls, slabs Replacement of sructural elements 16

17 Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Damage grade D5 Drawing Example Very heavy structural damage Very heavy non-structural damage Collapse of the building or of major parts of the building Demolition of building required 17

18 Basic elements Dataset 1 „EDAC“ Dataset 2 „MEDIS“
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basic elements Dataset 1 „EDAC“ Dataset 2 „MEDIS“  Main building type (masonry)  Other building types 18

19 Basic elements Masonry buildings Dataset „EDAC“ Dataset „EDAC + MEDIS“
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basic elements Masonry buildings Dataset „EDAC“ Dataset „EDAC + MEDIS“ 19

20 Classification of building types in vulnerability classes
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basic elements Classification of building types in vulnerability classes Most likely vulnerability class Probable range of scatter Range of less probable, exceptional cases 20

21 Basic elements Flood vulnerability class HW-E
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basic elements Flood vulnerability class HW-E Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau- und Wohnungswesen: Planen und Bauen von Gebäuden in hochwasser-gefährdeten Gebieten Bauhaus-Universität Weimar Institute for Foundations and Soil Mechanics 21

22 Specific Vulnerability Functions of type: Dm = f (hgf)
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basic elements Specific Vulnerability Functions of type: Dm = f (hgf) Building types Flood vulnerability classes Dm - Mean damage grade hgf - Inundation level over ground floor 22

23 Specific Vulnerability Functions of type: Dm = f (hgl, vfl)
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basic elements Specific Vulnerability Functions of type: Dm = f (hgl, vfl) Damage grades Dm Buildings (without specification) H = hgl + (vfl²/2g) hgl - Inundation level over ground level vfl - Flow velocity 23

24 Losses (MDR) and impact parameters
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basic elements Losses (MDR) and impact parameters hgl H = hgl + (vfl²/2g) 24

25 Specific Damage Functions (SDF i)
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Basic elements Specific Damage Functions (SDF i) SDF 1b: Example for HW-C, with cellar SDF 2: Example for floor number n, with cellar (under preparation) D5 D4 D3 D2 D1 25

26 Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Case studies

27 Case studies 1 3 2 Study areas in Saxony 1 – Eilenburg 2 – Döbeln
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Case studies 1 3 2 Study areas in Saxony 1 – Eilenburg 2 – Döbeln 3 – Grimma 27

28 Observed damage grades
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Case studies Study area 1: Eilenburg Observed damage grades Re-Interpretation Mean damage grades in the ATKIS- land use areas (MDm): 28

29 Case studies Study area 2: Döbeln Single Buildings
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Case studies Study area 2: Döbeln Single Buildings ATKIS-land use areas Mean Damage Ratio (MDR) in [%] 29

30 Case studies Study area 3: Grimma
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Case studies Study area 3: Grimma Consideration of the inundation level; Dm = f (hgf) Consideration of inundation level and flow velocity; Dm = f (hgl, vfl) Mean damage grades in the ATKIS- land use areas (MDm): 30

31 Case studies Study area Level Reference Losses in [Mio. €] Reported
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Case studies Study area Level Reference Losses in [Mio. €] Reported EDAC – loss model 1 Microscale Residential building stock 83.3 89.9 Total building stock 146.0 166.3 2 61.9 71.8 145.0 149.4 3 Mesoscale 58.5 62.2 31

32 Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Conclusions

33 - a unified definition of global structural Damage Grades (Di)
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Conclusion (I) Result: Damage and loss prediction model based on an engineering evaluation system of buildings including: - a unified definition of global structural Damage Grades (Di) - Specific Flood Vulnerability Classes (HW-A to HW-E) - Specific Vulnerability Functions (SVF) of type: Dm = f (hgf) Dm = f (hgl, vfl) - Specific Damage Functions (SDF) of type: Loss [%] = f (hgf, HW-VC, n, poc) Loss [%] = f (hgf, Di,) 33

34 The Results and developed Tools:
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Conclusion (II) The Results and developed Tools: - enable the reinterpretation of damage and loss parameters,  are suited for damage and loss prediction enable the identification of critical zones  are suited for disaster management decisions (short- and long-term) 34

35 Thanks for Funding Project Management Coordination RIMAX-MEDIS
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types Thanks for Funding Project Management Coordination RIMAX-MEDIS Contact: 35


Download ppt "Damage and loss prediction model"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google