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European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP) Annual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 Athens WP4 - Modelling and forecasting.

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Presentation on theme: "European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP) Annual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 Athens WP4 - Modelling and forecasting."— Presentation transcript:

1 European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP) Annual Meeting February 2008 Athens WP4 - Modelling and forecasting system assessment. Standards, quality, functions Korotaev Gennady (MHI) Objectives: -to evaluate existing forecasting activity in pan- European scale and to identify common standard; -to establish validation criteria of multidisciplinary information products; -to assess the quality of multidisciplinary information products; -to identify research priorities for optimizing of the pan-European forecasting system.

2 European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP) Annual Meeting February 2008 Athens Validation database WP6WP5 WP2 T4. 3 Validation of models product T4. 1 T4. 4 T4. 2 Inventory Standards Metrics Algorithm Protocols On-line validation procedure System Improvement Models Improvement

3 European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP) Annual Meeting February 2008 Athens PACKAGE PARTICIPANTS 1. Baltic Sea DMI, SMHI, FIMR, BSH 2. North Sea MET-NO, MUMM, PML 3. I-B-I Region MERCATOR, IST, IOI 4. Med Sea IASA-UAT, IMC, POC 5. Black Sea MHI, IOBAS, NIMRD

4 European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP) Annual Meeting February 2008 Athens PACKAGE COORDINATION 1. Baltic Sea DMI 2. North Sea MET-NO 3. Iberia-Biscay-Ireland MERCATOR 4. Mediterranean Sea IASA-UAT 5. Black Sea MHI

5 European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP) Annual Meeting February 2008 Athens PACKAGE COORDINATION -Coorcination of the interaction of theme 2 work packages (Galway, March 2007) -WP4 Task Team meeting (Toulouse, 06.07, Athens, 02.08) -Communication with regional coordinators/package participants by

6 New schedule proposal for theme 2 : WP4-WP5-WP6-WP7 Proposed during Galway kick off meeting (1-2 March 07) + updated afterwards taking account on deliverables written in DoW Dominique Obaton Mercator Océan

7 New proposal, theme2 (updated from kick off): modifications proposed (in red) remarks (in green) Mo4 (31 May) instead of Mo6: report on V0 system–WP5 V1 upgrade can start Mo5 (30 June) instead of Mo6: inventory of subregional systems –WP4 Mo6: review of sampling methodologies + implementation plan –WP7 Mo10 (30 November) instead of Mo12: common standards/gaps/overlaps = assessment of V0 + standards of validation we want to reach (2 levels) WP4 Mo12 (January 08) instead of Mo9: procedure model validation –WP4 Mo12: def new oper. methodologies for multiparametric measurements –WP7 Mo13 (February 08) instead of Mo16: recommendations to WP5 & WP6 for improvements before validation –WP4 Mo15 (April 08): first results in upgrades for V1 –step indication, no deliverables- Mo15 (April 08) instead of Mo16: common protocol for validation + offline regional validation database from WP2 –WP4 Mo 16 (1 May) to Mo18 (31 July): 3 months of validation + use of EuroMISS Mo 18 (July 08) instead of Mo22: recommendations to WP6 for improvements after 3 months validation –WP4 Mo18: assessment and plan for MERSEA & ECOOP coupling –WP5 Mo18: plan for TOP –WP5 Mo18: sediment protot. + data assimilation scheme + set up of models –WP7 Mo18: design of long term monitoring system + report on newly available data for operational purpose–WP7

8 New proposal, theme2 (updated from kick off): modifications proposed (in red) remarks (in green) Mo21 (Oct. 2008) instead of Mo18: 2nd upgrades for V1 + report –WP5 Mo21: upgrades from WP7 included in WP5 Mo21 instead of Mo25: protocol for online validation -WP4 Mo22 (1 Nov 08)  Mo27 (30 April 09): TOP –WP5 with data flow to EuroMISS and EuroDESS Mo22  Mo27 instead of Mo30: online validation during TOP-WP4 Mo24 (Jan 09): ENSURF –WP7 Mo30 (July 09): report on validation –WP4 Mo30 instead of Mo36: Report on TOP assessment (instead of on V2 system which is done in WP6) –WP5 Mo30: assessment of upgrades for MERSEA & ECOOP coupling –WP5 Mo30: sampling of long term monitoring system –WP7 Mo33 (Oct 09): report on downscaling + report on wave coupling/river flow + report on data assimilation + report on ecosystem –WP6 Mo33: error source assessment –WP7 Mo36 (Jan 09): report on enhancements on Baltic sea + NW shelf + IBI-ROOS + Med sea + Black sea (V2 system) –WP6 Mo36: Report on TOP hindcast and evaluation –WP6 Mo36: assessment of new technologies + full system + validated system & estimate in targeted areas + sdiments budgets + multi models ensemble – WP7

9 WP4 Task Team Meeting Toulouse, France, 5-6 June BSH Kai Soetje DMI Ole Krarup Leth SMHI Bertil Haakansson FIMR MET-NO Øyvind Sætra MUMM Patrick Luyten METO Holt Martin PML Icarus Allen MERCATOR Dominique Obaton IST/MARETEC Luis Fernandes CNRS-POC Claude Estournel IMC Roberto Sorgente IASA-UAT Sarantis Sofianos Anneta Mantziafou MHI Gennady Korotaev

10 5 June 14h-14h30’ Review of the WP4 objectives and time table (Gennady Korotaev) 14h30’-15h T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards (Ole Krarup Leth) 15h-15h50’ Overview of the sub-regional systems participating in validation: Baltic Sea Ole Krarup Leth North Sea Oyvind Saetre, Icarus Allen Biscay Bay Luis Fernandes Mediterranean Sea Sarantis Sofianos Black Sea Gennady Korotaev 15h50’-16h20’ Common standard approach (Ole Krarup Leth) 16h20’-16h50’ Break 16h50’-17h20’ T4.2 - Establishment of validation criteria of multidisciplinary information products (Fabrice Hernand)

11 6 June 9h’-9h30’ T4.3 - Evaluation of the quality of information products (Oyvind Saetre) 9h30’-10h20’ Validation data bases Baltic Sea Ole Krarup Leth North Sea Oyvind Saetre, Icarus Allen Biscay Bay Luis Fernandes Mediterranean Sea Sarantis Sofianos Black Sea Gennady Korotaev 10h20’-11h10’ On-line validation data flow Baltic Sea Ole Krarup Leth North Sea Oyvind Saetre, Icarus Allen Biscay Bay Luis Fernandes Mediterranean Sea Sarantis Sofianos Black Sea Gennady Korotaev 11h10’-11h30’ Break 11h30’-12h00’Recommendations on the off-line validation approach (Dominique Obaton, Oyvind Saetre) 12h00’-12h30’ Recommendations on the on-line validation approach (Dominique Obaton, Oyvind Saetre)

12 12h30’-13h T4.4 - Optimizing of the pan-European nowcasting and forecasting system (Sarantis Sofianos) 13h-14h Lunch 14h-14h30’ Approaches to the improvement of regional forecasting systems according to common standards (Sarantis Sofianos) 14h30’-15h Approaches to the improvement of regional systems according to products validation results (Sarantis Sofianos) Closure

13 -INVENTORY AND STANDARDS -VALIDATION ALGORITHMS -VALIDATION DATA BASE EVALUATION MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS

14 European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP) Annual Meeting February 2008 Athens T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and oastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards Berg Per (DMI) - DMI, IASA-UAT, MERCATOR, MET-NO, MHI Objectives: Compile inventory of ECOOP operational and preoperational activity in European regional and coastal seas and establish common standards

15 European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP) Annual Meeting February 2008 Athens S Compile inventory of ECOOP operational and preoperational activity in European regional and coastal seas (models, processes, atmospheric forcing, downscaling and links to the basin-scales, data assimilations, products) Berg Per (DMI) - DMI, IASA-UAT, MERCATOR, MET-NO, MHI Objectives: Define the structure of inventory of ECOOP operational and preoperational activity in European regional and coastal seas and compile it. Description: All activity will be ended during first 18 months. S Evaluate common standards of the nowcasting and forecasting activity. Berg Per (DMI) - DMI, IASA-UAT, MERCATOR, MET-NO, MHI Objectives: Establish common standards of the ECOOP regional and sub-regional systems Description: All activity will be ended during first 18 months

16

17 Baltic Sea SMHI, Sweeden BSH, Germany FIMR, Finland DMI, Denmark North Sea MUMM, Belgium MET.NO Norway Iberian Biscay Ireland IST, Portugal MeteoGalicia, Spain Mercator Ocean, France IEO, Spain IMI, Ireland Mediterranean Sea OC-UCY, Cyprus HCMR, Greece IASA, Greece IMC, Italy POC-CNRS, France Black Sea IOBAS, Bulgaria NIMRD, Romania MHI, Ukraine GAS, Georgia SOI, Russia

18 European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP) Annual Meeting February 2008 Athens T4.2 - Establishment of validation criteria of multidisciplinary information products Bahurel Pierre (MERCATOR) - DMI, IASA-UAT, MERCATOR, MET-NO, MHI Objectives: Select parameters, establish metrics and define common protocols of offline and online validation of regional and sub-regional products.

19 European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP) Annual Meeting February 2008 Athens S Define common algorithms and procedures of model validation Bahurel Pierre (MERCATOR) - DMI, IASA-UAT, MERCATOR, MET-NO, MHI Objectives: To propose metrics and algorithms of model validations Description: All activity will be ended during first 18 months. S Establish common protocol to calculate standard validation criterions Bahurel Pierre (MERCATOR) - DMI, IASA-UAT, MERCATOR, MET-NO, MHI Objectives: Formalize algorithms and procedures of model validation in the form of protocols Description: All activity will be ended during first 18 months.

20 European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP) Annual Meeting February 2008 Athens T4.3 - Evaluation of the quality of information products Hackett Bruce (MET-NO) - BSH, DMI, FIMR, IASA-UAT, IMS-METU, IO-BAS, IST, MERCATOR, MET-NO, METO, MHI, PML, RBINS- MUMM, SMHI Objectives: Evaluate the quality of selected products produced by regional and sub-regional systems

21 European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP) Annual Meeting February 2008 Athens S Establish regional validation databases Hackett Bruce (MET-NO) - DMI, IASA-UAT, MERCATOR, MET-NO, MHI Objectives: To establish regional centres responsible for archiving quality controlled observations and making the data accessible for the partners. Description: All activity will be ended during first 18 months.

22 An example of data extraction from the Bythos tool of the Oceanographic Center of the University of Cyprus

23 REPORTING SUBTASK REPORTS (S4.1.1, S4.1.2, S4.2.1) DELIVERABLES REPORTS (D , D , D ) INERIM REPORT ANNUAL ACTIVITY REPORT

24 NEXT 18 MONTHS ACTIVITY (planned at DoW) D (Mo16): Common protocol to calculate standard validation criterions. D (Mo16): Establish regional validation databases. D (Mo16): Recommendations (to WP6) of regional forecasting systems improvement according to common standards. D (Mo22): Recommendation (to WP6) of regional systems improvement according to products validation results. D (Mo25): Protocols of on-line product validation. D (Mo30): Report on validation of regional products according to standard criteria using archive data.

25 TIMETABLE ADOPTED Mo13 (February 08) instead of Mo16: recommendations to WP5 & WP6 for improvements before validation –WP4 Mo15 (April 08): first results in upgrades for V1 –step indication, no deliverables- Mo15 (April 08) instead of Mo16: common protocol for validation + offline regional validation database from WP2 –WP4 Mo 16 (1 May) to Mo18 (31 July): 3 months of validation + use of EuroMISS Mo22: recommendations to WP6 for improvements after 3 months validation –WP4 Mo18: assessment and plan for MERSEA & ECOOP coupling –WP5 Mo18: plan for TOP –WP5 Mo18: sediment protot. + data assimilation scheme + set up of models –WP7 Mo18: design of long term monitoring system + report on newly available data for operational purpose–WP7

26 (CONTINUATION) Mo21 (Oct. 2008) instead of Mo18: 2nd upgrades for V1 + report –WP5 Mo21: upgrades from WP7 included in WP5 Mo21 instead of Mo25: protocol for online validation -WP4 Mo22 (1 Nov 08)  Mo27 (30 April 09): TOP –WP5 with data flow to EuroMISS and EuroDESS Mo22  Mo27 instead of Mo30: online validation during TOP-WP4 Mo24 (Jan 09): ENSURF –WP7 Mo30 (July 09): report on validation –WP4 Mo30 instead of Mo36: Report on TOP assessment (instead of on V2 system which is done in WP6) –WP5 Mo30: assessment of upgrades for MERSEA & ECOOP coupling – WP5 Mo30: sampling of long term monitoring system –WP7


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