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Czech Economy and the CNB‘s forecast Vladimír Tomšík Vice-Governor, Czech National Bank www.cnb.cz Embassy of the Czech Republic, Beijing, 29 September.

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Presentation on theme: "Czech Economy and the CNB‘s forecast Vladimír Tomšík Vice-Governor, Czech National Bank www.cnb.cz Embassy of the Czech Republic, Beijing, 29 September."— Presentation transcript:

1 Czech Economy and the CNB‘s forecast Vladimír Tomšík Vice-Governor, Czech National Bank Embassy of the Czech Republic, Beijing, 29 September 2014

2 Czech Republic and its economy CNB, its legal mandate and monetary policy regime The current economic situation and CNB‘s forecast Conclusions 2 Outline of the presentation

3 Czech Republic and its economy CNB, its legal mandate and monetary policy regime The current economic situation and CNB‘s forecast Conclusions 3 Outline of the presentation

4 4 Population: 10.3 mil. Area: km 2 Capital: Prague (1.3 mil.) Currency: Koruna (CZK) 1989 Velvet revolution 1993 Separation of Czechoslovakia 2004 Member of the EU Small open economy Export oriented (automotive industry, etc.) Close trade relations with the euro area Czech Republic

5 5 Level of economic development GDP per capita in PPP reaches 75 % of euro area average. Catching-up process has bee temporarily interrupted by the global crisis. Wage level in euro is slightly below 40 % of the euro area average.

6 6 Structure of the economy The Czech economy is highly industrialized. The automobile sector is particularly strong in the Czech Republic.

7 7 Openness of the Czech economy to foreign trade is high and increasing. Exports reach almost 80% of Czech GDP. In the last decade, Czech foreign trade is in a surplus. Economic openness

8 8 Machinery and transport equipment constitutes 50% of Czech exports. Commodity structure of Czech exports

9 9 European Union accounts for 85% of Czech exports. Germany is by far the main trading partner, followed by Slovakia. Territorial structure of Czech exports

10 10 Czech exports to China have been increasing, but the balance of trade with China remains in a significant deficit. Czech trade with China

11 11 The stock of FDI in the Czech Republic reaches 70% of GDP. It is the second largest in the CEEC region (after Hungary). FDI stock in the Czech Republic

12 Czech Republic and its economy CNB, its legal mandate and monetary policy regime The current economic situation and CNB‘s forecast Conclusions Outline of the presentation 12

13 13 Monetary policy objective set forth −in the Constitution of the Czech Republic −in the Act on the Czech National Bank In particular, the CNB is required to maintain price stability The CNB shall support the general economic policies of the Government leading to sustainable economic growth −without prejudice to its primary objective −full independence of the CNB in its conduct of monetary policy Legal mandate

14 14 MP regime: inflation targeting (IT) since 1998 Monetary policy regimes Reasons for introducing IT Inability of previous regime to anchor inflation and inflation expectations Involuntary (market forced) abandonment of fixed exchange rate regime in May 1997 Experience of IT central banks (RBNZ, BoC, BoE, SR, BoA etc.) Before 1998 mix of monetary targeting and exchange rate peg (1991 – May1997) ER peg abolished in May ‘97 and monetary targeting applied till the end of 1997

15 15 Publicly explicitly announced commitment to provide an anchor for inflation and inflation expectations Main monetary policy tool: 2W repo rate (but currently at „technically“ zero level) Managed floating exchange rate regime (but currently an exchange rate commitment as a further instrument at the ZLB) Key role for macroeconomic forecast High degree of monetary policy transparency Inflation targeting: main principles

16 16 A 2% target since January Inflation targets π

17 17 The disinflation process was only very gradual in It was temporarily reversed in (CZK depreciation, deregulations). Inflation has been very low since 1999 (0.6% y-o-y in August 2014). Inflation rate Annual average (in %)

18 Czech Republic and its economy CNB, its legal mandate and monetary policy regime The current economic situation and CNB‘s forecast Conclusions 18 Outline of the presentation

19 Until last year, the Czech Republic lagged behind the other countries in the region in terms of GDP dynamics (protracted recession). The revival of economic growth occurred at the end of last year. This year's GDP growth is due to a recovery in foreign demand, the unwinding of fiscal tightening and weakening of the koruna. International comparison: economic growth 19 Real GDP growth (in %)

20 20 Fiscal policy Fiscal policy was strongly restrictive in The public budget deficit has declined to 1.5% of GDP in 2013, while the structural deficit has almost disappeared, implying an end of the EDP. The new government may pursue an expansionary fiscal policy for 2015.

21 In November 2012, the CNB has hit the zero lower bound (ZLB). Since then, the policy rates have been set at “technically” zero level: 0.05 % for the 2W repo rate and O/N deposit (i.e. discount) rate, and 0.25% for the O/N lending (i.e. Lombard) rate Main policy interest rates 21

22 22 CNB‘s November 2013 d ecision The Board decided to start using the exchange rate as an additional instrument for easing the monetary conditions, stating that: ”The CNB will intervene on the FX market to weaken the koruna so that the exchange rate is close to CZK 27/EUR.“ The exchange rate level was chosen to avoid deflation or long-term undershooting of the inflation target and to speed up the return to the situation in which the CNB will be able to use its standard instrument, i.e. interest rates. The exchange rate commitment is one-sided. This means that the CNB will prevent excessive appreciation of the koruna exchange rate below CZK 27/EUR. On the weaker side of the CZK 27/EUR level, the CNB is allowing the exchange rate to move according to supply and demand on the FX market.

23 The exchange rate after the decision After the CNB‘s policy announcement, the exchange rate reached 27 CZK/EUR quickly, and has been moving at somewhat weaker levels since then. The exchange rate volatility has decreased significantly (both the actual one, and implied by the market pricing of the futures). 23

24 An economic recovery (2.7 % in 2.Q) is taking place, supported by investment and household consumption. The weaker exchange rate supported household consumption in 4.Q In 1.H 2014, the consumption growth continued. Net exports worsened due to imports and inventory investment for future production. This was in line with the expectations. 24 Contributions of aggregate demand components to the y/y GDP dynamics (in p.p.) Structure of GDP growth

25 The recovery has been driven by export-oriented manufacturing sector, in line with the expectations. But other sectors have started to contribute positively, too. 25 Structure of gross value added growth Contributions to the y/y dynamics of gross value added (in p.p.)

26 26 Industrial production and construction Industrial production (constant prices, y/y, in %) The industrial production has started to grow, pulled mainly by foreign orders supported by a recovery in the euro area, as well as by the weaker exchange rate. But the domestic orders have been growing, too. Construction output has started recovering from a long recession. Construction output (constant prices, y/y, in %)

27 27 Confidence indicators Consumer and business confidence (2005 = 100)Business confidence by sectors (2005 = 100) Consumer confidence has been growing. The business confidence has improved mainly in the industrial sector and trade, pessimistic expectations still prevail in the construction.

28 28 Labour market Unemployment rate (in %) Unemployment is gradually reduced following the recovery of the. Enterprises responded to the reduced demand by shortening the length of working time during the recession` now the opposite is taking place. Unemployment rate has been declining. Number od employees (full-time equivalent, in % a and in p.p.)

29 29 Labour market Nominal wages (yoy, in %) Nominal wage growth last year even moved into negative territory, partly due to one-off effects of changes in the taxation of wages in the end of This year, wages revive roughly in line with expectations. Labour productivity grows mainly due to the recovery in the manufacturing sector. Labour productivity (yoy, in %)

30 30 The property market Prices of apartments (yoy in %) Developments in the property market in 2014 H1 confirm growth in real estate prices in Prague; prices are also starting to recover in the rest of the Czech Republic. Property price sustainability indicators suggest no financial stability risks coming from the housing market. Apartment price sustainability indicators (2000–2007 average = 100)

31 31 Inflation remained at a very low level in the 2.Q It will gradually move up starting the third quarter of this year. In summer of 2015, headline inflation will reach the target and will remain there throughout the rest of the forecasting horizon. Monetary policy-relevant inflation will follow the same profile as headline inflation and will be just below the inflation target at the MP horizon. (y/y in %) Inflation forecast

32 32 The forecast assumes that the exchange rate will be used as a monetary policy instrument until 2015 Q3. The risks to the forecast are assessed as being slightly anti-inflationary. Against this background, the Bank Board stated that the CNB would not discontinue the use of the exchange rate as a monetary policy instrument before (3M PRIBOR in %) Interest rate path

33 GDP Growth Forecast 33 GDP growth forecast: roughly 3% a year over Swift economic growth will be supported by growing foreign demand, relaxed domestic monetary conditions and increased government investment. 2.7% growth in Q was only slightly below the forecast. (yoy in %)

34 Czech Republic and its economy CNB, its legal mandate and monetary policy regime The current economic situation and CNB‘s forecast Conclusions 34 Outline of the presentation

35 35 The Czech GDP reaches 75% of the euro area average. The Czech economy is very open and export-oriented, with a strong industrial tradition and a lot of FDI. The CNB‘s monetary policy is focused on maintaining price stability within the inflation targeting framework. Currently, interest rates are at the zero lower bound, and the CNB has started to use the exchange rate as a further instrument. The fiscal situation of Czech Republic has improved in recent years. The economy is recovering from the previous recession, supported by growing foreign demand, the end of fiscal austerity and by monetary policy easing. Conclusions

36 36 Thank you for your attention Vladimír Tomšík


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