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Matt Moreland National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge Marine Industry Day May 22, 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "Matt Moreland National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge Marine Industry Day May 22, 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 Matt Moreland National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge Marine Industry Day May 22, 2014

2 Isaac didn’t fit people’s preconceived notions

3 “This is just a CAT 1 hurricane” “This is just a CAT 1 hurricane” “It has never flooded here before” “It has never flooded here before” “I’ve been through Katrina and Gustav, this is nothing” “I’ve been through Katrina and Gustav, this is nothing” “I saw the news break into programming, that GFS thing says it won’t come here, phew!” “I saw the news break into programming, that GFS thing says it won’t come here, phew!” “This is the same surge forecast as Gustav and I didn’t flood then” “This is the same surge forecast as Gustav and I didn’t flood then” “My app has most of those lines way east of here. I like the one that says CLIPER” “My app has most of those lines way east of here. I like the one that says CLIPER” “We are going to evacuate for all CAT1 hurricanes from now on” “We are going to evacuate for all CAT1 hurricanes from now on” “Ah great, I have a GIS map. Finally something accurate” “Ah great, I have a GIS map. Finally something accurate” “We just had our 100 year storm last year” “We just had our 100 year storm last year”

4 Categorizes hurricanes into 5 levels of intensity based on wind speeds alone Categorizes hurricanes into 5 levels of intensity based on wind speeds alone Ignores other threats such as wind duration, storm surge, heavy rainfall, river flooding, etc Ignores other threats such as wind duration, storm surge, heavy rainfall, river flooding, etc No such thing as “just a category 1” or “only a tropical storm” No such thing as “just a category 1” or “only a tropical storm” Can give people a dangerous and false sense of safety/security Can give people a dangerous and false sense of safety/security

5 National Hurricane Center Provides 5 Day Forecasts. National Hurricane Center Provides 5 Day Forecasts. However, advisories are only issued when weather system has been classified as a tropical depression or storm. However, advisories are only issued when weather system has been classified as a tropical depression or storm. Systems that develop in northwest Caribbean or Gulf may not always allow 5 days of lead time and preparation. Systems that develop in northwest Caribbean or Gulf may not always allow 5 days of lead time and preparation.

6 El Niño or La Niña Watch: El Niño or La Niña Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within the next six months. El Nino tends to decrease the number of storms in the Atlantic basin

7 ● NOAA Outlook issued today! ● Development of El Nino circulation will be a major factor *CAUTION* It only takes one storm to make a “bad” season

8 Moderate El Ni ñ oModerate El Ni ñ o Below normal activityBelow normal activity 8 Named Storms8 Named Storms 2 Hurricanes2 Hurricanes 1 Major Hurricane1 Major Hurricane Audrey – Cat 4Audrey – Cat 4

9 Strong El Ni ñ oStrong El Ni ñ o Well below normal activityWell below normal activity 6 Named Storms6 Named Storms 1 Tropical Storm1 Tropical Storm 5 Hurricanes5 Hurricanes Betsy caused significant impacts across FL and LABetsy caused significant impacts across FL and LA

10 Neutral El Ni ñ oNeutral El Ni ñ o Well below normal activityWell below normal activity 7 Named Storms7 Named Storms 3 Tropical Storms3 Tropical Storms 4 Hurricanes4 Hurricanes Andrew caused significant impacts across FL and LAAndrew caused significant impacts across FL and LA

11 Moderate El Ni ñ oModerate El Ni ñ o 6* Named Storms6* Named Storms 3 Tropical Storms3 Tropical Storms 3 Hurricanes3 Hurricanes Hurricane Danny: moderate impacts in LA/MS, but heavy rains had significant impact in ALHurricane Danny: moderate impacts in LA/MS, but heavy rains had significant impact in AL *2 additional named storms were re-classified as non-tropical in post-season analysis

12

13  Based on P-Surge output  Developed in concert with social science research  Implementation of experimental inundation graphic will commence this year  Will NOT indicate potential overtopping of levees

14 14  Emergency Response Support Mobile Tool

15 ● One PowerPoint, One Message! ● Decisions based on the same sheet of music ● Use the briefings in your EOCs and your briefings ● Spot Forecasts ● Explosions ● Leaks, Spills, Collisions ● Fires ● Security Operations ● ***Adding Aviation Soon***

16 DeploymentsMedia Briefings SWERV

17 Website: Website: Facebook: US National Weather Service New Orleans Facebook: US National Weather Service New Orleans

18  Website –  Briefings (INTERNAL)  Briefings (INTERNAL)  Telephone – x x4  Ken Graham – Meteorologist-in-Charge   Frank Revitte – Warning Coordination Meteorologist   Matt Moreland – Emergency Response Meteorologist 


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