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Animal Spirits And the Economic Outlook Robert J. Shiller Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics Yale University London School of Economics, 20 May, 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "Animal Spirits And the Economic Outlook Robert J. Shiller Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics Yale University London School of Economics, 20 May, 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 Animal Spirits And the Economic Outlook Robert J. Shiller Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics Yale University London School of Economics, 20 May, 2009

2 Ed Koren cover for Akerlof-Shiller Animal Spirits, Princeton, 2009

3 From R. Shiller Irrational Exuberance, 2 nd Edition, Spring 2005 “Significant further rises in these markets could lead, eventually, to even more significant declines. The bad outcome could be that eventual declines would result in a substantial increase in the rate of personal bankruptcies, which could lead to a secondary string of bankruptcies of financial institutions as well. Another long-run consequence could be a decline in consumer and business confidence, and another, possibly worldwide, recession.”

4 US Real GDP and Residential Investment Quarterly 1947-I to 2009-I

5 UK Real GDP and Construction Quarterly 1958-I to 2009-I1

6 US Unemployment Rate Annual Monthly Jan 1948-April 2009

7 UK and US Unemployment Rate, Jan 1971-March-April 2009

8 X4 on Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey x4: "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"

9 Depression Confidence (Tabulating Michigan Question X )

10 Real S&P Composite Stock Price Index and Real Earnings, Monthly, Jan 1871 to May 15, 2009

11 Real (S&P Composite) Price Divided by 10-Year Average Real Earnings, Monthly, Jan 1871 to May 15, 2009

12 Real FTSE 100 and Real S&P 500 Compared Jan 1987-May 15, 2009

13 Real House Prices – Greater London (Halifax), Los Angeles (S&P/Case-Shiller) through 2009-I

14 Los Angeles: Real (Inflation-Corrected) S&P/Case-Shiller Price Indices for Low-, Middle- and High-Priced Homes, Monthly Jan 1987-Feb 2009 (1987=100)

15 15 US Home Prices 1890 to 2008 Q4 With Annual Building Costs, Population, Ten-Year Treasury Yield


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