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An Introduction to the EM Algorithm Naala Brewer and Kehinde Salau

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An Introduction to the EM Algorithm Outline History of the EM Algorithm Theory behind the EM Algorithm Biological Examples including derivations, coding in R, Matlab, C++ Graphs of iterations and convergence

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Brief History of the EM Algorithm Method frequently referenced throughout field of statistics Term coined in 1977 paper by Arthur Dempster, Nan Laird, and Donald Rubin

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Breakdown of the EM Task To compute MLEs of latent variables and unknown parameters in probabilistic models E-step: computes expectation of complete/unobserved data M-step: computes MLEs of unknown parameters Repeat!!

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Generalization of the EM Algorithm X- Full sample (latent variable) ~ f(x; θ) Y - Observed sample (incomplete data) ~ f(y;θ) such that y(x) = y We define Q(θ;θ p ) = E[lnf(x;θ)|Y, θ p ] θ p+1 obtained by solving, = 0

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Generalization (cont.) Iterations continue until |θ p+1 - θ p | or | Q(θ p+1 ;θ p ) - Q(θ p ;θ p ) | are sufficiently small Thus, optimal values for Q(θ;θ p ) and θ are obtained Likelihood nondecreasing with each iteration: Q(θ p+1 ;θ p ) ≥ Q(θ p ;θ p )

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Example 1 - Ecological Example n - number of marked animals in 5 different regions, p - probability of survival Suppose that only the number of animals that survive in 3 of the 5 regions is known (we may not be able to see or capture all of the animals in x 1, x 2 ) X = (?, ?, 30, 25, 39) = (x 1, x 2, x 3, x 4, x 5 ) We estimate p using the EM Algorithm.

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Binomial Distribution - Derivation

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Binomial Derivation (cont.)

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Binomial Distribution Graph of Convergence of Unknown Parameter, p k

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Example 2 – Population of Animals Rao (1965, pp ), Genetic Linkage Model Suppose 197 animals are distributed multinomially into four categories, y = (125, 18, 20, 34) = ( y 1, y 2, y 3, y 4 ) A genetic model for the population specifies cell probabilities (1/2+p /4, ¼ – p /4, ¼ – p/4, p/4) Represent y as incomplete data, y 1 =x 1 +x 2 (x 1, x 2 unknown), y 2 =x 3, y 3 =x 4, y 4 =x 5.

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Multinomial Distribution-Derivation

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Multinomial Derivation (cont.)

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Multinomial Coding Example 2 – Population of Animals R Coding Matlab Coding C++ Coding

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R Coding #initial vector of data y <- c(125, 18, 20, 34) #Initial value for unknown parameter pik <-.5 for(k in 1:10){ x2k <-y[1]*(.25*pik)/( *pik) pik <- (x2k + y[4])/(x2k + sum(y[2:4])) print(c(x2k,pik)) #Convergent values } Matlab Coding %initial vector of data y = [125, 18, 20, 34]; %Initial value for unknown parameter pik =.5; for k = 1:10 x2k = y(1)*(.25*pik)/( *pik) pik = (x2k + y(4))/(x2k + sum(y(2:4))) end %Convergent values [x2k,pik] Multinomial Coding

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C++ Coding #include int main () { int x1, x2, x3, x4; float pik, x2k; std::cout << "enter vector of values, there should be four inputs\n"; std::cin >> x1 >> x2 >> x3 >> x4; std::cout << "enter value for pik\n"; std::cin >> pik; for (int counter = 0; counter < 10; counter++){ x2k = x1*((0.25)*pik)/((0.5) + (0.25)*pik); pik = (x2k + x4)/(x2k + x2 + x3 + x4); std::cout << "x2k is " << x2k << " and " << " pik is " << pik << std::endl; } return 0; } Matlab Coding %initial vector of data y = [125, 18, 20, 34]; %Initial value for unknown parameter pik =.5; for k = 1:10 x2k = y(1)*(.25*pik)/( *pik) pik = (x2k + y(4))/(x2k + sum(y(2:4))) end %Convergent values [x2k,pik] Multinomial Coding

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Graphs of Convergence of Unknowns,p k and x 2 k Multinomial Distribution

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Example 3 -Failure Times Flury and Zoppè (2000) ▫Suppose the lifetime of bulbs follows an exponential distribution with mean θ ▫The failure times (u 1,...,u n ) are known for n light bulbs ▫In another experiment, m light bulbs (v 1,...,v m ) are tested; no individual recordings The number of bulbs, r, that fail at time t 0 are recorded

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Exponential Distribution - Derivation

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Exponential Derivation (cont.)

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Example 3 – Failure Times Graphs

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Future Work More Elaborate Biological Examples Develop lognormal models with predictive capabilities for optimal interrupted HIV treatments (ref. H.T. Banks); i.e.Normal Mixture models Study of improved models Monte Carlo implementation of the E step Louis' Turbo EM

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An Introduction to the EM Algorithm References [1] Dempster, A.P., Laird, N.M., Rubin, D.B. (1977). Maximum Likelihood from Incomplete Data via the EM Algorithm. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), Vol. 39, No. 1,, pp [2] Redner, R.A., Walker, H.F. (Apr., 1984). Mixture Densities, Maximum Likelihood and the EM Algorithm. SIAM Review, Vol. 26, No. 2., pp [3] Tanner, A.T. (1996). Tools for Statistical Inference. Springer- Verlag New York, Inc. Third Edition

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Acknowledgements The MTBI/SUMS Summer Research Program is supported by: The National Science Foundation (DMS ) The National Security Agency (DOD-H ) The Sloan Foundation Arizona State University Our research particularly appreciates: Dr. Randy Eubank Dr. Carlos Castillo-Chavez

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