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Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) started in 1999 jointly sponsored by CCl, CLIVAR and JCOMM.

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Presentation on theme: "Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) started in 1999 jointly sponsored by CCl, CLIVAR and JCOMM."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) started in 1999 jointly sponsored by CCl, CLIVAR and JCOMM

3 Indices

4 the ETCCDI developed an internationally coordinated set of climate indices core set consists of 27 descriptive indices for moderate extremes focus on counts of days crossing a threshold; either absolute/fixed thresholds or percentile/variable thresholds relative to local climate used for both observations and models, globally as well as regionally can be coupled with – simple trend analysis techniques – standard detection and attribution methods complements the analysis of more rare extremes using EVT

5 Zhang et al. WIREs Clim Change, submitted. Klein Tank, Zwiers and Zhang, 2009, WCDMP-No. 72, WMO-TD No. 1500, 56pp.

6 Example: Russian heat wave, July 2010 In-situ NOAA

7 ERA-Interim ECMWF MSU UAH Courtesy: John Christy (top), Adrian Simmons (bottom) In-situ NOAA Example: Russian heat wave, July 2010

8 ETCCDI indices add relevant information In-situ NOAA Example: Russian heat wave, July 2010

9 31 days with T-max > 25°C against 9.5 days in a normal July Example: Russian heat wave, July 2010

10 16 nights with T-min > 20°C against 0.5 night in a normal July Example: Russian heat wave, July 2010

11 European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D)

12 Frich et al., Climate Research, 2002 (also in IPCC-TAR) Index for warm nights (status TAR)

13 Regional workshops

14 ETCCDI Regional Workshops Working together

15 organised together with the Asian Pacific Network (APN) goals: – contribute to worldwide indices database – build capacity to analyze observed changes in extremes – improve information services on extremes in the region – publish a peer-reviewed paper from each workshop

16 Alexander et al., JGR, 2006 (also in IPCC-AR4)

17 IPCC-AR4, 2007

18 ETCCDI Regional Workshops Working together GH Africa Workshop (WCRP/World Bank) 04/2010 Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines (NL) 12/2009 Southeast Asia (USA) 12/2007 Mexico (UK) 03/2009 West Indian Ocean (France) 09/2009 Central Africa (USA) 4/2007 Peterson and Manton, BAMS, 2008 South America (Ecuador) 01/2011

19 Software tools

20 Environment Canada provides, maintains, and further develops the R-based software used for the workshops (freely available from see: presentation by Xuebin Zhang / Enric Aguilar BAMS, September 2008

21 Detection / Attribution work

22 effects of external forcings on changes in: – global and regional surface air temperatures – hydrological cycle (precipitation in latitudinal bands) – cryosphere (Arctic sea ice-extent) – etc. some detection results for anthropogenic signal in observed changes in extremes (using ETCCDI indices RX1day and RX5day) see: Stott et al., WIREs Clim Change, 2010, 1,

23 Future

24 indices: – review current suite with a view to further improvement – assemble and maintain near global datasets of indices – improve delivery to users regional workshops: – continue to host (e.g. in WMO/World Bank series) – maintain standardized software IPCC: – contribute to IPCC-SREX and AR5 (extremes will be a focus) – post-process CMIP5 output for indices (plus software) – diagnostic studies based on indices (WG1 and WG2 relevance)

25 Challenges

26 indices: – additional indices in worldwide set (marine, drought, monsoon?) – more application relevant indices to better support adaptation – updating indices problematic for many regions (better liaise with regional panels? GCOS regional workshops? RCOFs?) daily data: – assembling worldwide datasets which are integrated, quality controlled, and open accessible (Surfacetemperatures.org) – tension between traceability (access to the primary sources) and data completeness (use whatever available)

27 detection / attribution: – how best to identify external influences on extremes – ability of models to adequately simulate extremes – scaling issues of extremes in point vs gridded data – event attribution ETCCDI: – manage expectations (small team, limited capacity) – keep the team focused (as well as open for new directions)

28 ECA&D develops and implements additional indices, e.g. snow cover, drought (SPI, PET) and wind indices full updates provided every month (as part of RCC for Region VI) website, database and processing software is openly available for use in other regions of the world – our gridding technique is used in Mexico and S. America – our portal has been implemented for S.E. Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines)

29 SACA&D (http://saca-bmkg.knmi.nl)

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