Presentation on theme: "Ten Tornadoes from Wireless Convergence ————————————— Opportunities for Australia’s CIO Internet Innovators Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney February."— Presentation transcript:
Ten Tornadoes from Wireless Convergence ————————————— Opportunities for Australia’s CIO Internet Innovators Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney February 23, 2004 Presented by Alex Lightman CEO, The University Network Chairman, Charmed Technology Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought We need to engineer a global industry consensus on wireless convergence to improve the quantity, quality, variety, simplicity, profitability, and security of customer communication experiences while also improving civilization for all humanity.
Percentage of Ownership 100 80 60 40 20 0 Electricity (1873) Telephone (1876) Automobile (1886) Television (1926) Radio (1905) VCR (1952) Microwave (1953) PC (1982) Internet (1983) 10080604020120 Years Since Introduction
Telecom Industry main frames desk top computing PC-LAN PC-WAN Internet electronic publishing and entertainment Computer Industry Media Industry The Converged Industry The Converged Industry Wireline mobility 2G/2.5G/EDGE PSTN ISDN PC/Servers New Telecoms Industry New Telecoms Industry 3G/Mobile Internet Carrier class MMM WWW WAP NEW battle ground
Telecom Industry main frames desk top computing PC-LAN PC-WAN Internet electronic publishing and entertainment Computer Industry Media Industry The Integrated Industry The Integrated Industry Wireline mobility 2G/2.5G/EDGE PSTN ISDN PC/Servers New Telecoms Industry New Telecoms Industry 3G/mobile Internet Carrier class MMM WWW WAP NEXT battle ground Consumer Electronics White Goods Industry Car - Airline Industry 3G/mobile Internet
Revised Technology Adoption Life Cycle 2.5 % Innovators 13.5% Early adopters 34% Early majority 34% Late majority 16% Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes Standard Best-effort IP Services Operational Savings Available New Service Revenue Standard Best-effort IP Services Operational Savings Available New Service Revenue Old/Existing Services Operational Savings Future Service Revenue Time Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries 1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or credit transaction; dropped credit card fraud over 30%. 2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes out when someone cancels to people who are in the area and want discount) 3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries 4. New Zealand: points awarded for watching television (TV 2, SMS) 5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to your telephone) 6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS, MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing impaired. 7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one customer to another. 8. United States: Automated calling from politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries 9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and average speeds for various drive routes. 10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile (already over 1/3rd of all paid parking). 11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin Blue 12. England: Shazam music identifying service 13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries 14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global) 15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM via mobile at Spar Bank. 16. Canada: UPS will track package and send SMS updates on delivery. 17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the post office (about $3 Australian) 18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile. 19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS 20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend; gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes 1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6) 2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi) 3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification) 4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) 5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP) 6. AR (Augmented Reality) 7. Sensornets 8. Home Networking 9. Wearable computing 10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives 12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b. spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security, 802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol. MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year? 10 TU 1 TU 100 BU 10 BU 1 BU 100 MU 10 MU Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a network increases exponentially with the number of nodes on the network 1/Computer 1/Consumer Appliance 1/Object Cell PhonesWi-Fi Bluetooth/ ZigBee RFID 1/Human Potential Current Penetration Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003 Source: Deloitte & Touche,..
IPv6 features 3.4*10 38 unique addresses available Stateless autoconfiguration Security: authentication and encryption Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for IPv6 2004-2009 Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years! * From 500 nodes to 500 million. * From one consumer application (Microsoft’s http://www.threedegrees.com) to one million. http://www.threedegrees.com * Million-fold increase in packets. * Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6 Power of Numbering Power of Sequencing Power of Ranking Power of Naming Power of Leading Power of Granularity Power of Bounding Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5 digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip) Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions Power of Containerized Cargo Power of Tight Targeting Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept Test & Analysis Initialization Core Implementation Coexistence IPv6 Native Acquire IPv6 Address Space Transition Strategy FY03-04 FY05-06 ~ FY07-9 & Beyond Addressing Plan IA Assessment DNS Mod Establish DNS Root Network Early Adopters Evaluate Transition Mechanism DoD Costing COTS v6 Network SW Dual Stack End-To-End Application Dual Stack Capable DoD Software Implementation IPv6 Protocol Suite Completion IPv6 Functional Matching DoD IPv6 Policy FY04-05 FY06-07 Req’ts Engineering Application Conversion Guidelines Pilot Core Networks Dual Stack IA/ Firewall Capabilities Switch/Router ASIC Functionality Network Management Tool Int. Pilots Begin Weaning IPv4 Core Network IPv4 Tunneling Edge Networks IPv6 Native Core Networks IPv6 Native Full IPv6 Integration All At a first level: Need to define next level of details and integrate in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS, mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion Personal computer Internet Telecommunications 4G4G Access to any data Ubiquitous Portable processing power Intuitive, augmented reality interfaces Context / location aware Simplifying and enriching people’s lives Personal electronics Service economy
Defining 4G 4G networks are networks that provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-to- peer wireless access to the Internet via IPv6. 4G services are multi-rate, informational and multimedia wireless services that provide end-user terminals/sensors with access to any other authenticated peer-to-peer node on the planetary grid. 4G radios are transceivers that provide data transmission at either 10- 100 Mbps/user short-range (100 meters) transmission or >1 Mbps long- range (1-10 Km) transmission. Many 4G basestations and end-user terminals/devices will have the added feature being programmable radios through the use of wideband (400 MHZ – 6 GHZ) software defined radios. The Planetary Grid Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD 4GSociety.org
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space) P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration, sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility Broadband Wireless Technologies OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION] Smart Antennas and spatial processing Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems] Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile communications Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors Wearable computer peripherals Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various input devices, wearable computer clothing The 4G Technology Menu
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D for Microsoft: “The most valuable thing we’ve learned is that in the future everything that costs over $25 except food will be connected to the Internet.” 4G is about the convergence of everything, not just of wireless, and therefore a grand consensus of ALL industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations Source: IST WSI Project The PAN The Immediate Environment Instant Partners Radio Accesses CyberWorld : Interconnectivity
What is a SensorNet? Sensors Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,… Sensor Platform Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, … Telecommunications Infrastructure Wired, Wireless, Internet, … Sensor Arrays Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, … Layered Software Backend Data Systems
New network operations systems must be designed for adaptability and change (new equipment, multiple vendors, new service offerings/ provisioning). 1970-1990Minicomputer/ DEC era 1:1 people/machine ratio 1980-Workstation/ PC era 1:10 people/machine ratio 1990- Enterprise networks/ Cisco era 1:100? people/machine ratio 2000- Broadband packet networks ? 1:1000? people/machine ratio 1960-1980 Time Mainframe/ IBM era Platform(s) 10:1 people/machine ratio Network Operations Model Source: Paul Johnson Old network management systems were single vendor solutions optimized for cost in rigid five- year preplanned networks. The New Powers of Ten
1000’s of subscriptions/person Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop Personal Black Box. Medical Microelectronic Machines (later nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing real- time assessment against millions of high resolution medical records, each with IP address. Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of body. The value of curing cancer, heart disease approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G (2004 –2010) Low Mobility High-Mobility 0.010.1 1.0 10 100 Vehicular Pedestrian Portable Fixed 56K ModemsxDSL/Cable E1/T1 Lines T3 Lines DECT/Cordless Phones Bluetooth GSM, cdmaOne PDC GPRS, EDGE, CDMA2000 1X 144 kbps 802.11b 802.11a Broadband Fixed Wireless Access 802.16a FBWA) Software Defined Radio Opportunity 2G 2.5G 3G $0.01-$0.07/Mbytes$0.30 - $20/Mbytes Multimedia Data, Location Services, Augmented Reality, Music/Video, Voice over IP, Remote Control Smart Antennas 802.11g Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002 4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters 802.11b 2-11 Mbps 760 Kbps 54 Mbps Early 4G Systems 1.5 – 20 Mbps W-CDMA R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps) CDMA2000 1x EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps) HPSDA 802.16e Mobility 802.15a UWB PAN
3G RAN Cable DSL WLAN RAS RAS RAS IPv6all-IP Packet Core GW PSTN ER/FW IPv4 (public or private) IPv6 3G-SGSN 3G-SGSN 3G-SGSN 3G-GGSN Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted their IP switching fabric to IPv6 IP organizations: www.ipv6forum.netwww.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp, www.ipv6.orgwww.usipv6.comwww.v6pc.jp www.ipv6.org Equipment: Cisco, IBM, Nortel, Juniper, Fluke, Lucent, NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi, Nintendo, Telia, Compaq, Sega, 3Com ATM/FR SDH/DWDM IP over ATMIP over DWDM Network Connection RAS ISP ER IPv6between access systems Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migrate to IPv6
4G Personal Communicator 1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link Voice, fax, data MP3 Player PDA Storage Voice Recorder Language Translator Video Camera Health Monitor Augmented Reality(AR) AR Game Player InfoSensors User 1 7. Wireless Broadcast Layer 6. Cellular Layer 5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA 4. Wireless Gateway Layer 3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer 2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers) Layer 1.Wireline Transport Layer (Optical Fiber, DWDM, Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial) Home or Office Telecom/Internet Service Providers Cellular Operators Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers Seven Layers of 4G Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ Chip 0.30 mm 2 Source: IBM Research 4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW Atlas application, supports the world Voice ($500 billion annually) Radio (add personalization, location) Television (Every show ever made) Medical Monitoring Simulations High resolution Location Based Services, including security
Deployment Rate Slow but Steady IPv4 Internet IPv6 Internet P2P Ad Hoc VoIP GRID HN 3G ITS WEB/Email 10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
Closing Thought The future is here. It’s just not evenly distributed. William Gibson. Alex Lightman Alex@usipv6.com
Closing Thought Alex@usipv6.com Tel. 310 717 7745.Alex@usipv6.com You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18, 2004, Santa Monica, CA www.usipv6.com Thank you! Please stay in touch. Alex Lightman