Presentation on theme: "1 The Enigmatic HDD Industry – Where Smaller IS Better IDEMA San Jose September 2004."— Presentation transcript:
1 The Enigmatic HDD Industry – Where Smaller IS Better IDEMA San Jose September 2004
2 Here We Go Again. Does the HDD Community spend Their days looking up redundant in a thesaurus, only to find the Definition as: Please see redundant ??– it sure feels that way!
Demand is Not an Issue Desktop year-year demand strong 2004 Desktop to be up ~8-10% Enterprise holding its own 2004 Enterprise to be up ~12% Notebook PCs surging 2004 Notebook to be up ~25% CE demand remains white-hot! 2004 CE shipments will surpass 30M representing an 85+% growth – and ~10% of global market opportunity
CAGR Comparisons ! 2003-2007 3.5” CAGR = 9% 2.5”-and-below CAGR = 26% 2.5” CAGR = 22% 1.8” CAGR = 44% <=1.0” CAGR = 90% Total HDD Market CAGR = 13% Thus, 3.5” lags the market, but all others are leading the charge!
2.5” HDD Demand Drivers Final 2003 result: 46.9 million HDDs Updated 2004 forecast: 58-60 million Why so strong?: Notebook PC demand insatiable CE applications heating up Still some MP3 – but dwindling AIS, routers, switches, printers Desktop not yet a factor Enterprise offerings on the way!
2.5” HDD Markets and Thoughts Strong notebook PC demand in 2003 – units up 33% sequentially 2004 Notebook PC forecast: up ~30% Enterprise is coming – 2H 2004! Is 2.5” for CE getting squeezed? CE opportunity not taking hold MP3 players opting for smaller HDDs Printer market aimed at high-end AIS – is HDD needed globally?
1.8” HDD Demand Drivers Final 2003 result: 2.7 million HDDs 2004 forecast: 6.0 million Why so strong?: Did you ever hear of an iPod? Apple and HPQ relationship for hPod Copycat MP3 players coming full steam Are pretenders now pPods? Numerous other CE opportunities Notebook PC opportunity Thin, lightweight models
1.8” HDD Markets and Thoughts MP3 opportunity is largest – 2003 shipments topped 2 million 2004 1.8” MP3 forecast: up 115% Notebook niche expanding No threat on desktop/enterprise Today only Toshiba and HGST – where are the others? GS soon? Many are looking to skip this and go to 1.0” – what does this mean for 1.8”?
<=1.0” HDD Demand Drivers Final 2003 result: 923,000 HDDs 2004 forecast: 3+ million Why so strong?: Did you ever hear of iPod mini? Now 4 suppliers – more coming Digi-Cam (DSC,DVC) demand rising Mini MP3 (other than iPod mini) 0.85” announced Cell phones – the holy grail!
<=1.0” HDD Markets & Thoughts MP3 now getting all the press 2004 1.0” MP3 stumbles early in year doing little to stem demand Digi Cam picking up – prices lowered! Now 4 players – HGST, Cornice, GS Magicstor, and STX– more coming Patent issues hurting GS and Cornice 0.85” addressing the holy grail of the cell phone market – is it real? YES!!
Inhibitors Capacity – is there too much? New facilities all around! Media Issues in SFF Limited glass supply Technology Spending Crisis Long-term issue, or election year issue Flash will NOT go away As much as this has not yet been a large factor, work is ongoing
Infrastructure Readiness Believe it or not……. Disk supply is tight Hoya/NSG controls 70+% of glass Only a few remaining OEM media suppliers Head supply is tight OEM supplier base down to two Technology challenges hurting output Areal density curve too challenging? Perpendicular recording is coming Who has the technology and money
Any Challengers to HDD? NO, but in the next 5-10 years… OPTICAL: varying formats, speeds not a threat despite huge market in consumer, PC applications for recording, archiving FLASH: competitive with 1" HDD in some applications, cost premiums to remain huge – BUT these guys ARE persistent! OTHERS: MEMS??? Watch for perpendicular recording (2006?), heat-assisted magnetic recording, millipede- type technologies HDDs will not be challenged in capacity, bit cost, but watch for flash changes!