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Lecture given to Dutch University students who study democratization in Kurdish region, in the department of political Science, the University of Amsterdam.

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Presentation on theme: "Lecture given to Dutch University students who study democratization in Kurdish region, in the department of political Science, the University of Amsterdam."— Presentation transcript:

1 Lecture given to Dutch University students who study democratization in Kurdish region, in the department of political Science, the University of Amsterdam 11 January 2010 By Dr. Sheth Jerjis Chairman of the Iraqi Turkmen Human Rights Research Foundation Kan. Pelsstraat VA Nijmegen The Netherlands “ Human Rights Situation in the North of Iraq in the Areas where the Kurdish Authority Exist” Iraqi Turkmen Human Right Research Foundation S O İ T M

2 Contents Definitions Iraqi communities in the region Figures & analysis of population statistics of the region and of Kerkuk province Analysis of annual increase in population statistics Historical regions of non-ruling communities Population number of religious communities Population statistics of Turkmen Number of Kurdish population in Iraq

3 Calculated number of Kurdish population Organization and political rights of non-ruling communities Turkmen and administration Turkmen in so-called disputed regions Non-ruling communities under Saddam and now Differences bet. and treatment of non-ruling communities Non-ruling communities and elections in the north Future scenarios, the best and the worst

4 Maps Concerned region Three ethnic vertical zones Ethnic distribution of non-ruling communities Boundaries of Kurdish expansion Boundaries of Kurdish region according to the Kurdish Regional Government Satellite maps of Kerkuk city - map of 2002 compared with map of 2007 Satellite map of Kerkuk city - Building area after the fall of Ba’ath regime

5 Definitions The term ‘Non-ruling community’ has been used instead of the term ‘Minority’ The term ‘Kurdish region’ has been used for Duhok, Erbil and Sulaymaniya provinces with the Safe Haven boundaries The term ‘Concerned Region’ has been used for the region in question which include seven provinces

6 Northern Provinces Erbil Duhok Nineveh Sulaymaniya Kerkuk Middel Provincies Salah al-Din Diyala Map of Concerned Region [Enlarge]Enlarge

7 Ethnic & Religious Communities in North of Iraq Almost all the ethnic and religious groups of Iraq are found in the region Ethnic communities Arabs Kurds Turkmen Chaldea-Assyrians are ethno-religious community Religious communities Sunni Shea Yazidis Other Shea Groups: Shabaks, Kakais, Sarilya and Bacalan

8 Table 1, Population of Concerned Provinces MoP= Ministry of PlanningMoT = Ministry of Trade† = By UN & Mop & MoT †† = According to UNICEF the voters are 52% of the Iraqi Population ††† = Used during provincial elections January 2009†††† = P. Eq. is population Equation Column 1Column 2 Column 3Column 4Column 5Column 6 ProvinceCensus 1987 Census †[1]12004 MoP [2] by No. of voters†† 2007 MoP [3]3 End 2008, MoT? ††† [4] by P. Eq. †††† Nineveh1,479,4302,042,8522,473,7272,554,2702,583,4252,811,0002,860,6552,632,727 Salah al-Din726, ,4321,077,7851,119,3691,085,7831,350,0001,182,1261,292,202 Diyala961,073 1,135,2231,373,8621,418,4551,360,7651,561,0001,299,2671,710,282 Kerkuk601, ,171839,121854,4701,544,809902,0001,169,4451,069,902 Sulaymaniy a 951,723 1,362,7392,159,8031,715,0001,849,5891,893,0001,597,1341,693,643 Erbil770,439 1,095,9921,845,1661,392,0001,673,1271,542,0001,438,1551,371,038 Duhok293, ,970616,609472,000882,546505,000916,140521,950 Total5,783,326 7,697,37910,386,07 3 9,525,56410,980, ,564, ,462,92210,291,744

9 Census 1987 was the last official census organized by the Iraqi government for all 18 governorates The population of the Kurdish region accounted for 12% of total Iraqi population Census 1997 [5]5 Organized by UN Covered only 15/18 governorates Figures for the Kurdish region was given by Kurdish political parties

10 Table 1 Statistics of 2003 (Column 1) Statistics were collected prior to the fall of Ba’ath regime on Under the supervision of the United Nations, data were collected from the Iraqi government and the Kurdish parties in the Safe Haven Both the Ministry of Planning & Ministry of Trade participated in collecting the statistics for 15 of the governorates Statistics where subsequently used in the ‘oil for food programme’

11 After the fall of Ba’ath regime, almost no population statistics have been published by the Iraqi Ministry of Trade Iraqi minister of planning is of Kurdish origin

12 Table 1 Population estimates based on voters numbers (Column 3) Estimate calculated by number of voters in the Iraqi general election, December 2005, for example: There was officially voters in the Kerkuk province Which make 52% of the total population according to UNICEF, accordingly The population = x 100 / 52 = 1,544,809 Registered voters list’s are compiled by The Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq based on Ration Cards given by the province’s authorities

13 Table 1 Population estimates in 2009 (Column 6) based on Geometric method for computing population growth rate: The population of a specific province in 2009 can be calculated and estimated based on previous censuses. Using statistics from the previous census (organized by the Iraqi government in 1987), and applying the geometric method of ‘computing the trend’ of Population: P1 = Po (1+gr)n P1 = Population of a province in 2009 Po = Population a province in 1987 GR = Growth Rate GR in Iraq according to UNICEF was 3% until 1990 and 2,6% from 1990 to 2007 N = Number of Years

14 Table 1 The UN published figures in 2003 (column 1) for the population in Kurdish region was greatly large, which increased the percentage of Kurds only in the Kurdish region to 17%. This abnormal figures of UN had increased the share of Kurdish region from the Iraqi budget from 13% to 17% after the fall of Saddam regime The population of the Province of Kerkuk is abnormally low in figures published by the Iraqi Ministry of Planning This is despite significant Kurdish resettlement in the province In contrary to the figures of population registration office of Kerkuk province (Table 2)

15 Table 1 Including Iraqis living in the Diaspora, the total population for all 7 provinces should equate to roughly 10,291,744 in 2009 (column 6). On the contrary, the total population for all 7 provinces, excluding Iraqis living in the Diaspora, is larger in 4 earlier estimates (column 1, 3, 4, 5)

16 Table 1 Based on the number of voters in the Iraqi General Elections of December 2005, (column 3) the population estimates of the; Kerkuk province were greatly exaggerated Kurdish region are the highest of any estimations made including the estimation from the MoP of 2007 (column 4) Non-Kurdish provinces were convergent in regard to Nineveh and lower in regard to Salah al-Din and Diyala provinces compared with statistics of 2004 of Ministry of Planning (column 2) Total population of the seven governorates is estimated to be around 10,291,744 in 2009 (column 6). This figure is smaller than the results of all the previous censuses and estimations, which were conducted during earlier dates.

17 Table 2, Population No. of Kerkuk province [6]6 Census or estimationsPopulation number Estimate ,000 Census ,634 Census ,900 Census ,912 Census ,098 Census ,400 Census ,219 Census ,800 Ration Card in mid-20051,047,875 Ration Card in 20061,098,061 Identity Card 4/20071,353,700 Identity Card 10/2007 [7][7]1,368,860 Identity Card 20081,464,372 Voters number 20051,544,809

18 Table 2 The two estimations made on the size of the population in Kerkuk, which were based on the number of Ration Cards issued in 2005 and 2006 Are figures from the Iraqi Ministry of Trade Show a considerable increases in the population size The three estimations based on number of identity cards issued Are figures from the Kerkuk Population Registrations Directorate, which is administered by the Kurds They show large increases in the population size The calculated population of Kerkuk province based on the number of voters in the Iraqi General Election of December 2005, which was about 800,000, is larger than the figures produced in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 by both the Ministry of Trade and the Registration Directorate

19 Table 3, Evaluation of Annual Increase Column 1Column 2Column 3Column 4 Regions1987 – – 2003 UN MoP & MoT 1997 – 2007 ministry of planning 1997 – 2005 calculated by voters list Shea†3.4%3.2%3.5%4% Sunni††3.6%3.3%3.5%3.8% Kerkuk2.5%1.9%2%13.1% Kurdish†4.2%10.3%3.8%6.7% Total3.5%4.1%3.5%4.6% † = Shea region includes the 9 southern provinces † † = Sunni region includes the five provinces where the Sunnis are the majority † † † = Kurdish region is the KRG three provinces

20 Table 3 This table indicates the population growth annually. The growth is expressed in percentages. Below is an example of how these are calculated. A figure for the Census in 1997 – A figure for the Census in 1987 = population increase in 10 years Population increase x 100 / Figure of census 1987 = percentage of increase Percentage of increase / number of years bet. 2 censuses or estimations = Percentage of annual increase

21 Table 3 Census 1987 and 1997 (column 1) The growth in population of both the Shea and Sunni regions during this 10 year period, are relatively comparable to both one another and to the regional average Population of Kurdish region increased 0.7% above the average despite the fact that: The large number of Anfal victims, which the western library puts it into 200,000. Tens of thousands of Kurds have fled Iraq and established in Europe, in order to: Improve their economical status Escape The economical embargo in Iraq The civil war between two Kurdish parties

22 Table 3 More than 20 thousand victims of the civil war between the two main Kurdish parties abroad The Kerkuk province has the lowest rate of growth. This can be attributed to several factors including; forced deportation, fleeing of non –Arabic individuals

23 Table 3 Census 1997 and estimation of 2003 by UN (column 2) Population size of both the Shia and Sunni regions grew at slightly below average rate The figures estimated that the Kerkuk population had further decreased, despite the fact it was a quiet period of deportation. Population of Kurdish region Hugely enlarged Equal three fold of increase in Sunni and Shea regions The abnormal increase in population of Kurdish region between the censuses of 1997 and the estimations of the UN of 2003, can not be attributed to the influence of any contributing factor or event.

24 Table 3 Census 1997 and calculation of population in 2005 by voters numbers (column 4) Slightly increase in Shea and Sunni regions. Population of Kurdish region increased more than one and half fold as much as of Shia and Sunni regions Kerkuk population hugely increased, which clearly demonstrates the demographical change in the province The increases in population figures of all regions during this period indicates that voters registration lists were generally exaggerated

25 Three zones in the North [Enlarge] Other groups in Kurdish regionEnlarge Non-ruling communities in Kurdish region

26 According to the nature of population, North of Iraq can be divided in to three vertical Zones, Eastern Zone which is KRG region Mainly Kurdish Middle Zone Non-ruling community’s zone Highly mixed Cities of non-ruling communities: Sinjar – Rashidiya -Telafer – Telkeyf – Hamdaniya – Shaykhan Eski Kelek – Erbil – Kus Tepe – Altun Kopru – Kerkuk – Daquq – Tuz Khurmatu – Kifri – Kara Tepe – Mendeli – Kiz Rabat – Khanaqin - Badra

27 Western Zone Mainly Arabic Cities: Mosul – Shirgat – Beiji – Tikrit - Samarra Non-Kurdish communities in Kurdish region Duhok Province Yazidi, Chaldea-Assyrians and Shabaks Erbil Province Turkmen in Erbil city Chaldea-Assyrians Ain Kawa region Kush Tepe sub-district Sulaymaniya Province Turkmen and Arabs in Kifri

28 Map of Ethnic Distribution [Enlarge]Enlarge

29 Historical Regions of non-ruling communities Subdivision Shea groups The Shabaks are found in many villages in west, north and east of Mosul province, for example, Baashiqa, Wardak, Toprak Ziyaret, Telafer.... The Bajalan are also present in many Shabak villages in the east of Mosul, for example, Yarimca, Dilyara, Orta Kharab... The Kakais or Sariliye are found In several villages on the banks of the Great Zab Telafer South of Kerkuk, mainly Daquq region

30 Yazidi regions Mosul Province Sinjar and Shaykhan districts are well known Yazidis Districts located in the west and east of the province In different sub-districts and villages of Nineveh plain with Chaldea-Assyrians and Shabaks Duhok Province, mainly in the following regions Zakho Summel Baadra

31 Chaldea-Assyrians Mosul province They can be found in Mosul city, in large numbers Telkif, Batnaya, Hamdaniya, Bartalla are also well known Chaldea-Assyrian regions Duhok province They are found in Duhok city, again in large numbers They also maintain a presence in many villages throughout the province Tens of Chaldea-Assyrian villages in Duhok province were almost completely Kurdified in over the past forty years

32 Erbil province Large Ayn Kawa neighbourhood in Erbil city and the sub- district Kush Tepe are Chaldea-Assyrian Kerkuk province Mainly in New Kerkuk and Almas neighbourhoods

33 Turkmen In Mosul province Mosul Mosul city Several villages, the largest of which are Sallamiya, Rashidiya and Kara Koyunlu Telafer District is a well know and heavily populated Turkmen district Iyadiya and Mahlabiya sub-districts and multiple local villages Erbil City Historically a Turkmen city which has been exposed to heavy Kurdish immigration and subsequently has become their capital. 1/3 of the population today are Turkmen

34 Kerkuk Province Kerkuk city is well known Turkmen city, despite long peroid of intensive Arabification and Kurdification processes, the Turkmen are still constituting a considerable part of population Many Turkmen sub-districts and villages are found in the south, west and north of the province. Altun Kopri sub-disrict in the north Dibis region in the north west In the west: Yaychi, Kumbetler..... In the south: Daquq district, Taze Khurmatu and Leylan sub-districts.....

35 Salah al-Din province Tuz Khurmatu is one of the largest Iraqi districts Yengice sub-district Bayat region in the south of Tuz Khurmatu includes large sub-districts of: Bastamli Emirli Sulayman beg, which has become mainly Arabified

36 Diyala Province Includes several large districts and sub-districts Kifri and Khanaqin, Exposed to continuous Kurdification, The Turkmen population today constitutes around 20% of these cities population Kara Tepe sub-district Kizrabat sub-district Mandali Mandali had an estimated population of nearly 70 thousand in the 1970’s Today population is estimated to be around 20 thousand

37 Qazzaniya Baladruz Adana Koy Baghdad There is an estimated three hundred thousand Turkmen living in Baghdad, according to some Turkmen sources. Kut province Badra District Arabified Turkmen Tribes, such as, the well known Karaguli tribe, have spread to the south of Baghdad and Kut provinces, and constitute a population of tens of thousands The number of Turkmen deported to the south by the Ba’ath regime in not known

38 Boundaries of Kurdish Expansion [Enlarge]Enlarge

39 KRG’s Boundary of Kurdish Region [Enlarge]Enlarge

40

41 Figures of census 1947 Chaldea-Assyrians149,6563.1% Yazidis32, % Shabaks were considered with ‘others’ UN, MoP & MoT – 2003 Chaldea-Assyrians334,4881.2% Yazidis281,984 1% Shabaks were considered with ‘others’ Shabaks – accord. unofficial sources is 2 – 4,00,000 Iraqi Turkmen Human Right Research Foundation S O İ T M Population of Religious Communities

42 Population Statistics of Turkmen All census presents 2%, including early results of census 1957 In the final results, which included the amended results of the 1957 census: (The last in which the Turkmen were permitted to register – counted 567,000 Turkmen (9% of the population) among Iraq’s population of 6,300,000) † This census counted 819,000 Kurds which makes 13% of the population † † = the report number 735 of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy

43 Size of Kurdish Population The census of ,000 (13%) CJ Edmonds,17-20% Longrigg 1,250,000 / 8,500, % CIA15-20% WJ Elphinston13% Robert Zeidner12% Martin J. Dent 13% George L. Harris, 17% Other sources 20% & 23% - KRG region receives 17% of the total Iraqi Budget - Percentage of the Kurdish members in the Iraqi Parliament is 20%

44 Calculated Number of Kurdish Population in Iraq No census, figures from 1997 onwards are only estimations Total Iraqi Population was 12,000,497 in 1977 Applying the equation P0=P1 (1+gr)N Total Iraqi Population in 2009 is estimated at 28,700,073 The official number today has been exaggerated to > 32,000,000 Kurds possibly represent 17% of the population The Kurdish population in 2009 should therefore be around 4,879,012 While official KRG numbers estimate it around 4,5 million Estimated number of Kurds out of KRG population should be around 2 million

45 Organization and Political Rights of Non-ruling Communities Judit Neurink is a well known Dutch journalist who has frequently visited the Kurdish region In her article titled: “A true copy of the Saddam regime” she comments that: The Kurdish authorities are similar to Saddam’s regime The Political parties control all the components of the society, Only members of certain Kurdish political parties are appointed to the government The government has one million staff members, who work for `the ruling parties and receive additional privileges. The power of the parties is observable in all civil and political domains

46 Turkmen organizations in Erbil from 1991 to 2005 The Turkmen Political parties were: ITF Turkmeneli Party Turkmen national party Independent party The Turkmen civil society organizations were: Turkmen House Turkmen Brotherhood cultural club

47 Local TV and Radio Dispensary Print house Turkmeneli newspaper Information office Directorate of education Turkmen Union and Syndicate 13 Turkmen schools Turkmen department - Institution for Teachers The number of Turkmen run organisational buildings was 24

48 Eradication of Turkmen organizations All Turkmen buildings were confiscated in April 2005 Name of the Turkmeneli Television and Radio were changed and have in turn been used as a propaganda instruments by the Kurdish authorities. The Turkmeneli newspaper has been discontinued Turkmeneli print house has been closed, followed by the sale of all content The dispensary has been closed, and again the contents were sold. Turkmen Institution for Teachers was closed Buildings were given to Pro-Kurdish Turkmen parties & orgs

49 Only one Turkmen party remains active It is situated in one small building Its activities are severely limited It is significantly infiltrated by the Kurdish authorities It is not allowed to pursue political, social and cultural activities, outside of their own building. Governmental buildings cannot be rented. logistical supporters of Turkmen organizations are exposed to intimidation, exploitation and violence

50 Pro-Kurdish Turkmen parties and orgs were instituted by Kurdish parties They receive their salaries from the Kurdish authorities They have almost no activities Turkmen Schools administered by non-expert Kurdish staff curricular is devised by Kurdish specialists Kurdish language is imposed on students from an early age Mainly Kurdish history is studied

51 The Syllabus is monitored by Kurdish supervisors Kurdish directors are appointed to administer these schools The content of the curricular, the explanatory drawings, and the activities all reflect the Kurdish heritage and culture The educational quality has steadily worsened, and consequently, registration is currently significantly decreased

52 Restrictions on other rights The Turkmen publications, other than 2 or 3 pro- Kurdish Turkmen publications, are not allowed to be sold in shops or put in the libraries Cafés and public houses can not operate Turkmen TV and radio keep the Turkmen publications Election campaigns 2005 Turkmen parties were only allowed to hang their posters and flags outside their own buildings

53 Turkmen and Administration There are two Turkmen districts in Kurdish region Erbil city Kifri district

54 Erbil city In the early 20th century almost 90% of population of Erbil city was Turkmen Today, at least 1/3 of the city are Turkmen City council members are divided solely between two Kurdish parties Kifri district Historically a Turkmen region In the 1950s the Turkmen represented a majority of the population Now only 20% of the population are Turkmen There is no Turkmen in district council Of 17 directors in governmental offices there is only 1 Turkmen representative

55 Turkmen in so-called Disputed Regions Kerkuk Province There has been a policy of Kurdification of the administration in Kerkuk. The Governor, Mayor, Police chief and Directors of most of the Governmental offices and Police systems are Kurdish Security system is almost completely Kurdified as well

56 Kerkuk population was 830,000 at the day of the 2003 occupation (table 1) By 2008 its was estimated to be around 1,400,000 (table 2) Number of voters was 803,000 in general elections of December 2005 Propriety Claim commission Total complaint cases are 36,000 Almost 80% are from the Turkmen people Only 3200 of these cases were completed

57 Satellite maps of Kerkuk city - map of 2002 compared with map of 2007

58 Satellite map of Kerkuk city – the building area after increased about 20 Km sq. between 2003 and 2007 The area was built after occupation the fall of Ba’ath regime

59 Khanaqin This is another Historical Turkmen city Now at least 15% of the population are Turkmen There were 3 Turkmen in the district council Unbearable intimidation forced them to join Kurdish groups 21 directors in Governmental offices 18 are from Kurdish parties 3 from Arab and Turkmen parties combined

60 Differences bet. and treatment of non-ruling communities Population size Religious and ethnic All exposed to suppression in the north The religious minorities were also exposed to attacks by Sunni extremists

61 Non-ruling communities under Saddam and Now In Ba’ath period Suppression was mainly ideological and ethnically based There was a single nationalist party, which mainly excluded non-ruling communities Demographical changes Arabification of minority regions Demolition of villages Political executions All non-Ba’ath communities were exposed to violations of their human rights Due to armed rebellion of Kurdish groups, many Kurdish regions were exposed to atrocities

62 Related to the Turkmen Enforced demographical modifications, particularly in Kerkuk province, as a result of; Resettlement of Arabs in Turkmen regions Demolition of Turkmen regions in Kerkuk, Mosul, Diyala Political executions Sectarian, large number Turkmen Shea were exposed to execution National, execution of politicians and activists (Parties and Organisations)

63 Post Ba’ath Period Suppression is ethnical and religious It includes seizing of lands Demographical changes as a result of the resettlement of Kurdish communities Intimidations, arrests, killings and assassinations Marginalisation in administration. Kurdish mainatin political and civil dominance Exposure to terrorist attacks (Unknown origin) Institution of pro-Kurdish Turkmen political parties and civil society orgs

64 Non-Ruling Communities and Elections in the North Factors which render elections totally impartial Politicized administration Governmental Security Militia Ruling Kurdish authorities dominate and claim the lands of non-ruling communities Absence of a democratic culture Inexperienced, unqualified and politicized election and governmental administration

65 As it is mentioned Kurdish domination of administration after election in Erbil Kifri Khanaqin Kerkuk All of which are not historically or statistically (population size) Kurdish areas

66 Future Scenarios, the Best and the Worst Major disagreements in the North are: Power of the federal authorities Kurdish authorities functioning as an independent region which specifically violates the Iraqi constitution So-called disputed areas Historically non-Kurdish regions Most of these regions were populated mainly by non-Kurds before the occupation and in other regions the Kurds increased in later decades The large underground wealth is dominated and controlled by Kurdish population The presence of Peshmerga militia Amendment of the constitution

67 Scenario I The continuation of the present situation will maintain: The current instability The suppression of non-ruling communities And weaken the Iraqi state

68 Scenario II Withdrawal of occupation troops without solving major disagreements with the: Inflexible attitudes of Kurdish political parties The war will be unavoidable

69 Scenario III Bargain on the Lands will be At the expense of the non-ruling communities Bargain on the underground wealth will Leave a weak Iraqi state Rule out the enduring national and regional stability

70 Conclusions The so-called Disputed region is vast region inhabited by millions of people Iraqi non-ruling communities are large population inhabit mainly the so-called disputed regions The United Nations authorities accepted the abnormally exaggerated population figures of Kurdish political parties for ‘Food for Ration’ program. These figures are still in use. The population size of the Iraqi Turkmen has constantly underestimated The population statistics of ministry of Planning is higher than that of ministry of Trade Kerkuk province has exposed to massive demographical changes after occupation The policy of Kurdish political parties is expansionist policy which suppress the non-Kurdish communities The Kurdish political parties dictate their terms and the involved powers and international community do not move a finger

71 Discussion

72 Iraqi Turkmen Human Right Research Foundation S O İ T M


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