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Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research PRECIS Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies The Hadley Centre regional climate modelling system.

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Presentation on theme: "Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research PRECIS Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies The Hadley Centre regional climate modelling system."— Presentation transcript:

1 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research PRECIS Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies The Hadley Centre regional climate modelling system A presentation to the UNFCCC workshop on non-Annex 1 national communication preparation guidelines by Richard Jones, Met Office Hadley Centre, UK 8 April 2003

2 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Outline Background: Motivation and PRECIS overview PRECIS components and their application Future climate scenarios available from PRECIS Applying PRECIS in impacts assessment Limitations of PRECIS and future developments

3 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Motivation UNFCCC requirement to assess national vulnerability and plans for adaptation UNFCCC requirement to submit National Communications Both need estimate of impacts Impacts need detailed scenarios of future climate Scenarios are best produced locally, using expert knowledge and increasing ownership

4 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Predicting impacts

5 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Who is PRECIS for? Government scientists from less developed countries involved in vulnerability and adaptation studies A regional model’s domain usually encompasses several countries, so it is hoped that neighbouring countries will collaborate to produce ensembles It is hoped to draw on local resources, such as expertise in local climate

6 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Who funds PRECIS?

7 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research How fast does it go? T3E (supercomputer)- 1.5 months (36 Processors) PC (Intel P4 2.8 GHz) months 30 year integration, 100x100 grid points Hardware requirements PC running under the Linux operating system Memory : 512MB minimum; 768MB recommended Minimum 60GB disk space + offline storage for archiving data Simulation speed proportional to chip speed

8 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research PRECIS: PC system components Domain Scenario Period Diagnostics Run PRECIS

9 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research PRECIS components: full list User-interface to set up RCM experiments The latest Hadley Centre RCM Data-processing and graphics software Boundary conditions from latest Hadley Centre GCM Training course and materials PRECIS website and helpdesk

10 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research What is a Regional Climate Model? Comprehensive physical high resolution climate model that covers a limited area of the globe, usually including the atmosphere and land surface components of the climate system, and containing representations of the important processes within the climate system (e.g., cloud, radiation, rainfall, soil hydrology).

11 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Limited area models driven at the boundaries by GCM observed boundary data. Resolution of 50km Regional Climate Models (RCMs)

12 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Boundary conditions Requests through –PRECIS website –helpdesk

13 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Training course and supporting material Training in the use of PRECIS will focus on: –Background science including uncertainties –Interpretation of PRECIS results by regional experts –Construction of regional climate change scenarios –Building capacity in countries/regions using PRECIS PRECIS will be supplied with: –a workbook covering the background science, system description and the uses and limitations of PRECIS –a technical manual explaining technical details about the system and how install and to use it

14 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Support and follow-up Helpdesk – , phone –web-based discussion Website –news –updates –datasets –resources Collaboration/workshops

15 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Regional detail when simulating current climate Realistic detail in climate change predictions Resolution of islands, smaller countries e.g. Italy Realistic simulation of extreme events Provides comprehensive data for impact models Applications of RCMs

16 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER BRITIAN Observed, and simulated with RCM and GCM

17 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research SIMULATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE in the PRECIS regional climate model Global climate model Regional climate model

18 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research WINTER DAILY RAINFALL OVER THE SW CAPE, SOUTH AFRICA SW Cape winter rainfall: Observed - red, GCM - green, RCM - blue 40 mm/day

19 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research CHANGES IN MONSOON PRECIPITATION between the present day and the middle of the 21st century Global climate model Regional climate model

20 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research SUMMER TEMPERATURES in the 2080s compared to the present day, due to A2 emissions Climate on islands changes very differently to the surrounding Mediterranean Sea, and can only be predicted using an RCM Global climate model Regional climate model

21 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Future climate scenarios available from PRECIS PRECIS can provide: –climate scenarios for any region –an estimate of uncertainty due different emissions –an estimate of uncertainty due to climate variability Data available from PRECIS –comprehensive for atmosphere and land-surface –grid-scale box average quantities –maximum time resolution one hour

22 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research CO2 EMISSIONS PROFILES under IPCC SRES scenarios Source: IPCC

23 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISE due to four SRES emissions scenarios

24 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Applying PRECIS in impacts assessments Obtain current state from impacts model via: a) observed data e.g. as used in model validation b) RCM control data Obtain future state from impacts model using: –RCM climate changes (in means, variability, etc) applied to observed data (compare with a) –RCM future climate data directly (compare with b)

25 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research BAY OF BENGAL CYCLONE simulated by the PRECIS regional climate model Resulting storm surge simulated using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory model

26 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research CHANGE IN ANNUAL SURFACE RUNOFF between today and the 2080s, for A2 emissions Southampton University hydrological model

27 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Current limitations of PRECIS 10 year simulations take a month or more It is a model hence imperfect, i.e. uncertainty due to use of only one RCM is not captured Uncertainty due to imperfect driving data (i.e. from only one GCM) is not captured Resolution of 50km or 25km insufficient for some impacts applications Coastal or marine impacts have to be inferred (e.g. storm surges)

28 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research PRECIS: treatment of uncertainties PRECIS accounts for uncertainties due to: –Future emissions - uses 4 SRES scenarios –Natural variability - uses initial condition ensembles PRECIS does not account for uncertainties due to: –The conversion of emissions to concentrations - carbon cycle or chemistry (except sulphur cycle) not represented –Uncertainty in the response of the climate system - only boundary conditions from 1 GCM are used –Uncertainty in the detailed climate change - only one RCM is used

29 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research CHANGE IN S ASIA SUMMER RAINFALL with PREDICTED BY NINE GCMs (A2 emissions) A2 emissions scenario

30 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research % CHANGE IN WINTER PRECIPITATION

31 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research REPRESENTATION OF THE PHILIPPINES WITH DIFFERENT MODEL RESOLUTIONS 25km RCM resolution 50km RCM resolution GCM 300km resolution

32 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS Continuously upgraded to new processors Ability to run PRECIS RCM from different GCMs –at least two to be added this year –relevant cooperation from GCM centres being sought Intercomparisons of all RCMs being organised –No plans for PRECIS to incorporate other RCMs Resolution of model being improved to 10km RCM with ocean component being built

33 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Final remarks You can contact us via: – –Tel: –Fax: Web-site for information on PRECIS –www.hadleycentre.com/models/PRECIS.html


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