1. Recommendations SEMCOG Travel Model Improvement Program Donnelly, Davidson, Binkowksi & Arens 12-Dec-2011

2. Goals Responsive Current Attainable Agile Extensible Needs driven Evolutionary, compatible Life-cycle view, incremental Data, resources Best practice, defensible, credible 2

3. An elusive definition 3

4. Analytical needs 4 DomainAreaDirection FederalState of practiceAdvanced models CertificationCurrent model (E6/7) New StartsCurrent model (E7) LocalStrategicCurrent model (E6/7) TacticalAdvanced models Performance measuresCurrent model (E6/7)

5. Progression Travel model improvement plan 5

6. Ad hoc model(s) SEMCOG Ax modelMDOT statewide model Regional model of economic, trade, and land use trends PB’s vision MacroscopeMegascopeMesoscope Microscope Activity or tour- based microsimulation of person and freight travel Dynamic traffic assignment to planning network Detailed traffic analysis of key facilities and corridors Multimodal person and freight tours Time-sliced demand by mode Congestion indices, link and node delay Economic triggers for freight flows Transport costs and reliability Aggregate costs and accessibilities 6

7. An alternative 7 E6/7 model

8. Another alternative Source: Michael Batty, University College London 8

9. Over the horizon Neural networks Pattern recognition Passive data Trends Time series Generative / AIInductive and deductive Agents Distributed databases Concurrent (parallel, distributed) Utility maximization Estimation Travel data Theory Cross-sectional Objects Embedded data Linear / monolithic 9

10. Multi-scale travel modeling MacroscopeMegascopeMesoscope Microscope Activity or tour- based microsimulation of person and freight travel Regional model of economic, trade, and land use trends Dynamic traffic assignment to planning network Detailed traffic analysis of key facilities and corridors Multimodal person and freight tours Time-sliced demand by mode Congestion indices, link and node delay Economic triggers for freight flows Microsimulation or GIS-based land use model(s) Aggregate costs and accessibilities Location choices Transport costs and reliability Aggregate costs and accessibilities 10

11. Trips versus tours Trip mode choice Households & firms Intermediate stop(s) Primary location & mode Temporal allocation Daily tour generation Long term choices Traffic assignment Trip distribution Temporal allocation Mode choice Trip generation Traffic assignment Aggregate (zonal) attributes Network data 11

12. Getting there from here Incremental Shared components Travel behavior data (surveys, …) Networks Target and validation data Etc. Coincides with staff development Fully operational models at each stage Responsive Current Attainable Agile Extensible 12

13. Transition strategy: demand side StageMajor advancements 0. Best practice model implementation (E6/E7) Complete market segmentation by income Destination choice models Calibrated mode choice model 1. Enhanced trip-based model (A1) Linked trips (half-tours) to reduce NHB Tour analysis of travel surveys Trip frequency choice model Finer temporal allocation factors Sub-county validation targets 2. Population synthesizer and daily travel activity patterns (A2) Adapt UrbanSim population synthesizer Integrate trip generation into daily activity pattern models Application of daily activity patterns to synthetic population 3. Tour-based mode & destination choice models (A3) Primary tour destination and mode choice Stop frequency and location choice Trip mode choice Implementation in microsimulation framework 4. Fully integrated model (A4) Time-of-day choice (activity scheduling) Time-space constraints Inter-household interactions & constraints Full integration with dynamic network models 13

14. Advantages Deeper insight Get dynamics right DTA linkage more straight-forward Eliminate NHB trips Excels for equity and pricing studies Analogous to 100 percent travel survey 14

15. Transition strategy: supply side StageMajor advancements 1. Data developmentExpanded traffic counts (hourly by vehicle type) Probe data ATMS data feeds Performance reporting 2. “Planning level” DTARevision of link capacity functions Quantifying network reliability Use in parallel with static user equilibrium model(s) 3. Simulation-based DTAIntersection coding templates Expansion of network coding to include intersections Signal timing heuristics Network summarization and reporting tools Micro and macro-level validations 15

16. Advantages Enables robust tactical solutions Get dynamics right DTA linkage more straight-forward 16

17. Transition strategy: data programs StageMajor components 1. Second generation MI TravelCounts program Move to a continuous data collection program Tour-building heuristics Tweak to better understand intra-household interactions 2. External travel surveyRetrospective long-distance survey as TravelCounts add-on Mode-specific visitor surveys Focus on TAF synergies 3. Commercial travel survey(s) Collaborate with CMAP (follow protocol) Focus on FAF3 synergies Major freight facilities database CV tracking programs 4. Network data programEvolution of Network Master Build off of OpenStreetMap &| Google Network design problem  hourly classification counts Intersection coding templates Signal timing heuristics Network summarization and reporting tools Micro and macro-level validations 5. Passive trackingEvolve from self-reporting to self-describing Pattern recognition and AI constructs 17 Traditional Innovative

18. In a nutshell Finish E series Phased transition to AB models  import & calibrate Phased transition to regional DTA model Ad hoc traffic microsimulation New, overhauled data programs  models, reporting Comparable investment in wetware required 18