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RETRANS2 – Final Report Annex Ann-Kathrin Meinerzhagen, Eva Szczechowicz RWTH Aachen University, Germany 10. June 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "RETRANS2 – Final Report Annex Ann-Kathrin Meinerzhagen, Eva Szczechowicz RWTH Aachen University, Germany 10. June 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 RETRANS2 – Final Report Annex Ann-Kathrin Meinerzhagen, Eva Szczechowicz RWTH Aachen University, Germany 10. June 2011

2 Table of Annexes  A1 – Acronyms  A2 – References  A3 – List of subsidies and incentives for EVs  A4 – Pilot projects in the three regions  A5 – Policies concerning EV deployment  A6 – List of available EV models  A7 – Standards  A8 – Renewable Energy policies  A9 – Expected growth in electricity sector  A10 – Revenue from Ancillary services for EVs  A11 – Impact of EVs on grids and production  A12 – Two phase development of Co-Evolution  A13 – Road infrastructure 2

3 Acronyms  EHV: Extra High Voltage  EV : Electric Vehicle  GHG: Greenhouse Gas  HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle  ICEV: Vehicle with Internal Combustion Engine  NEV: New Energy Vehicle  OEM: Original Equipment Manufacturer (Vehicle and Battery Manufacturers)  PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle  PV: Passenger Vehicle  RE: Renewable Energy  V2G: Vehicle to Grid  VAT: Value Added Tax 3 A1

4 4 References  ACEA  AVERE  Black & Veatch, 2010. What will be the North American energy industry’s “new normal”.   CANMET Energy, Electric Vehicle Technology Roadmap for Canada, 2009. http://canmetenergy-canmetenergie.nrcan- http://canmetenergy-canmetenergie.nrcan-   China Electric Power Yearbook 2009, Azure International’s wind market analysis  China Electricity Yearbook  China Energy Statistic Yearbook A2

5 References (cont.)  China Greentech Initiative, "China Greentech Initiative 2010: Cleaner Transportation Sector, Working Session #3." Beijing, China: China Greentechn Initiative, 2010. Print.  CIA: The World Factbook  Communauto, 2010 (press release). Communauto to offer all-electric Nissan LEAF to clients in 2011. electriques/index_ENG.html electriques/index_ENG.html  COWI (2011): "Kortlægning af strategier for lavenergibyggeri i EU Lande", Report for the Danish Government.  Danish Commission on Climate Change (2010): Nordic Foresight Analysis, Renewable transport 2011  Danish Energy Authority. "Report on charging stations". 2011. (Danish)  Danish Energy Strategy 2050, Danish Government, March 2011 5 A2

6 References (cont.)  Earley, Robert J., Liping Kang, Feng An, and Lucia Green-Weiskel. United Nations. Electric Vehicles in the Context of Sustainable Development in China. United Nations, 2011. Web. in press.   Electric Mobility Canada (2010): Demonstrating Electric Vehicles in Canada.   ENTSO-E: Factsheet 2011  Environment Canada, 2010. Canada lists emissions target under the Copenhagen accord. 1&news=EAF552A3-D287-4AC0-ACB8-A6FEA697ACD6 1&news=EAF552A3-D287-4AC0-ACB8-A6FEA697ACD6  European Commission, 2009: Climate and Renewable Energy Package  European Commission, 2009: Directive on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources 6 A2

7 References (cont.)  European Commission, Directorate-General for Research, Directorate H – Transport (2010): European Green Cars Initiative. Towards an electric future?.  European Commission (2011): Review of European and national financing of renewable energy  European Commission (2011): White Paper. Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system.  European Commission (2011): Impact Assessment. Accompanying document to the White Paper. Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system.  European Commission (2011): Comission Staff Working Document – Accompanying the White Paper – Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system 7 7 A2

8 References (cont.)  European Commission (2011): A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050.  European Environment Agency (2009): Towards a resource-efficient transport system.  European Environment Agency, 2007. Passenger transport by mode in passenger km per capita. maps/figures/passenger-transport-by-mode-in-passenger-km-per-capita maps/figures/passenger-transport-by-mode-in-passenger-km-per-capita  European Parliament & Council (2009): DIRECTIVE 2009/28/EC of 23 April 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources and amending and subsequently repealing Directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC  European Parliament, Directorate-General for Internal Policies, Directorate – Industry, Research and Energy (2010): Challenges for a European Market for Electric Vehicles.  European Union (2011): Energy Infrastructure. Priorities for 2020 and beyond ─ A Blueprint for an integrated European energy network 8 A2

9 References (cont.)  Eurostat (2010): Yearly energy statistics 2008  Finish Energy Industry (2011): Energy taxation in Europe, Japan and the United States  G4V (2010) : Parameter Manual.  Huang Yonghe. China Automotive Technology & Research Center. Personal Interview by Azure International. 24 Feb 2011  Hunt, T., 2011. Why electric vehicles will reduce GHG emissions. vehicles-will-significantly-reduce-greenhouse-gas-emissions vehicles-will-significantly-reduce-greenhouse-gas-emissions  "Imbalance of Power Production and Consumption in China." Wind Energy Resource Characteristics and Development Potential. Web. 28 Feb 2011..  Institute for Energy Research, 2011. Obama Administration Pushes Electric Vehicles. 9 9 A2

10 References (cont.)  International Energy Agency (2009): Technology Roadmap. Electric and plug- in hybrid electric vehicles.  International Energy Agency (2010): RETRANS – Opportunities for the Use of Renewable Energy in Road Transport – Policy Makers Report.  International Energy Agency (2011): Technology Roadmap. Smart Grids.  IEA Country Statistics:  International Monetary Fund  J.D. Power and Associates (2010): Drive Green 2020: More Hope Than Reality?  Jenny Gold (2009): A Modern Electric Grid: The New Highway System? For NPR: Power Hungry series. 10 A2

11 References (cont.)  Kempton, W.(2009): Vehicle to Grid Power.  Lai, Xiaokang. China Electric Power Research Institute. Personal Interview by the Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation. 22 Feb 2011.  Lindholm, Tommy (2010): Vattenfall’s E-mobility programLu Zongxiang. Tsinghua University. Personal Interview by the Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation. 22 Feb 2011  National Centre for Advanced Transportation (2001): Electric Vehicle Project Montreal 2000.  National Public Radio (2009): Special Series: Power Hungry – Reinventing the U.S. Electric Grid, Visualizing The U.S. Electric Grid.  Natural Resources Canada, Directory of Energy Efficiency and Alternative Energy Programs in Canada, 11 A2

12 References (cont.)  Nordic Energy Research. "Foresight Analysis – Nordic Strategies for Renewable Transport", Final Report, March 2010.  Nordic System Operators (2010): d%20report.pdf  Norsk Elbilsforening  Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, Electrifying the BC Vehicle Fleet, 2009.  RITA, 2006. North American Freight Transportation. Sessa, C. and Enei, R. (2009): EU transport demand: Trends and drivers. ISIS, paper produced as part of contract ENV.C.3/SER/2008/ 0053 between European Commission Directorate-General Environment and AEA Technology plc.  Statistics Canada, 2000. North American Transportation Highlights. 12 A2

13 References (cont.)  Statistics Canada, 2009. Motor vehicle registrations.  Statistics Canada, 2009. Energy Supply and Demand.  Statistics Finland, 2009,  Statistics Iceland  TemaNord 2008:587. CO2-reductions in the transport sector in the Nordic countries, Nordic Council of Ministers, 2008. (Danish)  The EV-Project:  United Nations Population Division, 2003. World Urbanization Prospects. percentage-living-urban-areas percentage-living-urban-areas  United Nations. Population Division. Department of Economic and Social Affairs: World Urbanization Prospects, The 2009 revision  United Nations Statistic Division: Demographic Yearbook 2008. 13 A2

14 References (cont.)  US Census Bureau, 2011. State Motor Vehicle Registrations. egistrations_alternative_fueled_vehicles.html egistrations_alternative_fueled_vehicles.html  US Census Bureau, 2011. Population  US Department of Agriculture (2005): Rural Transportation at a Glance  US Department of Energy, Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency,  US Department of Energy, 2009. President Obama sets a target for cutting US GHG emissions.  US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Electric Power Annual,  US Energy Information Administration (2009): energy-profiles.cfm?sid=TX energy-profiles.cfm?sid=TX 14 A2

15 References (cont.)  University of California, Berkeley, Centre for Entrepreneurship and Technology (2009): Electric Vehicles in the United States: A New Model With Forecasts to 2030.   Wang Hewu. Tsinghua University. Personal Interview by Azure International. 25 Feb 2011  Wen Haiping. China Academy of Sciences. Personal Interview by the Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation. 22 Feb 2011 15 A2

16 16 Subsidies and incentives for electric vehicles in Europe  European incentives:  7 th Framework Programme  Funding of research projects and their pilot fleets  Different national approaches:  Subsidies per purchase  UK, F, E, B, AU, CY  Discussed in Sweden  Tax exemptions  VAT, registration tax, annual circulation tax  Traffic privileges (UK, NL, N)  Use of bus lanes  Exemption from road tolls and ferry charges  Free parking  Fuel subsidy (NL) Taxation benefits for EVs in Europe Vehicle taxation linked to emissions Reduced annual tax, Reduced registration fee, Both annual tax and fee reduced A3

17 Subsidies and incentives in Europe Financial / tax-related/ non-monetary incentives for EVs AustriaUp to 1100€ or 15% subsidy in several provinces 50% VAT reduction, No first licence tax, no motor tax, Bonus-malus system for low-emissions vehicles Insurance facilities Parking & charging facilities (especially Vienna) Circulation limited in some cities Belgium15% rebate (max. € 3280) for CO2<105g/km, 3% rebate (max. €615) for CO2<115g/km, personal income tax reduction of 30% of purchase price (max. €9000) Lower circulation tax Parking & charging facilities Proposal: up to €4000 per car Cyprus€700 per EV-purchase (max. 7 purchases) Czech Republic EVs are exempt from road tax (for business cars) 17 A3

18 Subsidies and incentives in Europe Financial / tax-related/ non-monetary incentives for EVs FranceUp to €3200 (€2000 for HEVs) subsidy; 15 k€ per bus (>30 seats), 1 k€ per bus (<30 seats) Road tax – no TIPP; Some regions: 50-100% reduction of vignette Parking & charging facilities EV imposed by law: Loi sur l‘air Many pilot projects GermanyNo/ lower tax for 5 years, fixed tax-rates thereafter Parking & charging facilities GreeceExemption from registration and one specific tax, No or lower circulation tax Lower insurance premium Free on-street charging in Athens & Amarouszsion Free circulation in some restricted areas ItalySubsidy of up to 65% of extra-costs Regional incentives: 40-50% of price, initiative for 2-wheelers No tax, 50% reduction on insurance Some cities: Parking & charging facilities, restricted circulation exemptions 18 A3

19 Subsidies and incentives in Europe Financial / tax-related/ non-monetary incentives for EVs MonacoSubsidies: 30% of BEV-price, €3000 for HEV which can drive 100% electrically Half tax for annual register licence (BEVs) Free parking Special registering plate NetherlandsUp to €4000 subsidy (DEMO project) Reduction of VAT in some cases, No BPM R&D aids PortugalBEVs exempt from registration tax, HEVs pay reduced (50%) registration tax RomaniaEVs exempt from registration tax SpainVarious regional subsidies: up to 10 k€ (?)/ €2000 for HEVs, €6000 for BEVs or 70% SwitzerlandDifferent regulation for each Canton. United Kingdom 25% (max. £5000) discount per purchase EVs exempt from annual circulation tax, can be exempt from company car tax 19 A3

20 Subsidies and incentives in Nordic Countries Financial / tax-related/ non-monetary incentives for EVs DenmarkBEVs exempt from registration charge, lowest possible annual motor vehicle tax. PHEVs not exempt from registration charge. Free on-street charging in some cities FinlandUp to 30% subsidy BEVs pay reduced (by 77%) motive power tax. PHEVs (diesel) pay motive power tax reduced by 27%, PHEV’s (petrol) tax was reduced by >90%. Free car parks in several cities NorwayOne city gives up to €3400 per vehicle BEVs are exempt from both car tax and VAT. They pay a very low annual registration charge. Parking & charging in Oslo, exempt from parking fees in public parkings. No highway-toll and car-ferry fares. Electric vehicles also have a higher mileage allowance in the public sector. SwedenSubsidy of 40% of price difference HEVs(emissions max. 120 g/km) and BEVs consuming 37 kWh/100 km are exempt from annual motor tax for 5 years. Company vehicle taxation: the taxable value of electric and hybrid vehicles is reduced by 40%. Maximum reduction €1750 per annum. Free on-street charging in some cities Exemption from circulation restriction in some inner cities, Permission to use bus lanes Source: 20 A3

21 21 Transport Sector Government incentives  Different national approaches:  Denmark and Norway have the highest registration tax on ordinary cars on more than 100 % of the value, Finland has a registration tax on around 49 % and Sweden has no registration tax. Norway and Denmark have a complete exemption for EVs from paying registration tax.  Other benefits granted to purchasers of electric vehicles include the right to drive on bus lanes, free parking in public car parks, exemption from road tolls and car ferry charges in Norway, and a reduced tax rate on electric vehicles for businesses in Sweden and Norway. Sweden has recently made this package a little less attractive. A3

22 22 Vehicle TypeCreditsVehicle Examples HEVs$ 250 - $ 3,400* Toyota Prius, Honda Insight BEVs$ 7,500 Nissan Leaf, Tesla Roadster PHEVs and Extended Range EVs $ 7,500 Toyota Prius PHEV, Chevrolet Volt ER-EV Clean Diesel Vehicles$ 900 - $ 2,200 BMW 335d, VW Jetta TDI * Expired in 3/2010 A3

23 23  National and local subsidies for charging infrastructure, EV-acquisition or OEMs + non-monetary benefits  Up to ¥ 100 billion  Federal subsidies for public EV-acquisition  3000 ¥ / kWh, max. ¥ 60,000 per BEV  Subsidies for private EVs  Federal subsidies in 5 pilot cities  Some pilot cities have local subsidies  Non-Monetary: no traffic restrictions and car license lottery in Beijing  Tax exemptions, i.e. for private EVs in Beijing A3

24 Pilot Projects in Europe CountryPilot ProjectLocationNo. Evs AustriaVLOTTEBregenz/ VorarlbergE-Scooters and EVs (Th!ink City mostly) ElectroDrive Salzburg SalzburgE-Bikes or EVs (iMiEV, Th!ink City) FranceAutolib ParisParis4000Bolloré Pilot cities for charging infrastructure Aix-en-Provence, Angoulême, Bordeaux, Grenoble, le Havre, le Grand Nancy, Nice, Orléans, Paris, Rennes, Rouen, Strasbourg 24 A4

25 Pilot Projects in Europe CountryPilot ProjectLocationNo. Evs FranceStrasbourg100 PHEVToyota & EDF Public procurement 5000 H&B La Poste10 000 GermanyE-Mobility Berlin Berlin100eSmarts + infrastructure BeMobilityBerlin50Car sharing (eMinis), E- Bikes, E- Scooters BremenCar sharing, commuting HamburgHybrid busses & EVs 25 A4

26 Pilot Projects in Europe CountryPilot ProjectLocationNo. Evs GermanyPendlerverkehr NRW Rhein-RuhrCommuting, commercial vehicles, Busses, Scooters & Bikes ModellregionRhein-MainEVs at Airport, public transport eflottMunich IrelandAran Islands 8Self- sustainability possible Italye-mobility ItalyRome, Milano, Pisa>100Enel & Daimler 26 A4

27 Pilot Projects in Europe CountryPilot ProjectLocationNo. Evs NetherlandsThe New Motion Amsterdam10 000 (2015) 40 000 (2020) Renault-Nissan & Komme PortugalMobi.EPublic charging SpainMovEleBarcelona, Madrid, Sevilla 2000550 charging stations United KingdomPlugged-In Places London, Milton Keynes, Northeast Source LondonLondon1001300 charging points, parking discount SwitzerlandSmart electric drive Zurich50eSmarts alpmobilGotthard regionLeasing for tourists 27 A4

28 Overview of selected Nordic pilot projects, 2010 -2012 DenmarkSwedenNorwayFinland Edison ProjectVolvo C30 ElectricField testing of plug-in Prius Project in the postal sector Energistyrelsen, Pilot project, € 3 000 000 Volvo TrucksStatens Vëgvesen Better Place, Dong energy Postal service project, Trondheim DTU, test of Plug-in hybrid. "Europe's biggest EV-test" by ChoosEV Subsidies for charging stations A4

29 Pilot projects in Denmark  € 5 million is provided by the state during a three year period to test EV's and infrastructure. The tests and pilot projects includes taxis, intelligent "refuelling" etc,  The Danish Energy Authority also finances Expert groups and studies on EV infrastructure and alternative fuels.  ChoosEV – "Europe's biggest EV-test” 2011.  Danish company owned by SydEnergi and SEAS and Sixt Danmark.  supported by public development funds ((8,1 mio. DKR from the System Operators Research and Development Fund).  90 Mitsubishi iMiEV Evs will be on the road in spring 2011, and 300 vehicles will be tested by more than 2000 Danish families. The project ends in June 2013. More info on  "Better Place"  EV's and battery changing stations  10-20 battery changing stations is expected to be build in 2011, at the Renault Fluence can be bought for 208.000 DKR (65.000 EUR) without the battery.  The battery is part of a service agreement where a charging station is build at your house, and you rent the battery and can change it unlimited whenever you choose. The price includes electricity and current prices are from 1495 DKR/month (200 EUR) (10.000 km/year) to 2995 DKR/month.(400 EUR) for 40.000 driven kilometre per year. Delivery is set to fall 2011. 29 A4

30 The Danish Edison project  EV seen as a balancing measure to enable the Danish government’s energy strategy, which implies 50% wind power penetration in the electric power system.  storage device for smoothing power fluctuations from renewable resources (wind power )  provide valuable system services for a reliable power system operation  enable an increased share of RES in the power system for supply of the conventional electricity demand  The Edison project aims at developing system solutions and technologies for EVs and PHEV  enable a sustainable, economic and reliable energy system  properties of EVs are utilised in a power system with substantial fluctuating renewable energy.  Prepare and provide a technical platform for Danish demonstrations of EVs with emphasis on the power system integration aspects.  To develop standard system solutions for EVs, which are applicable globally, by utilising the Danish leading knowledge within distributed energy resources and operation of energy systems with high wind power penetration, and thereby, release the potential for Danish export of technology, system solutions, and knowledge. A4

31 Pilot projects in Sweden,  2011: Volvo tests different kinds of renewable fuels in their Trucks, and a new Volvo C30 electric, a smaller family car, is being tested in Sweden by several Swedish families.  Different regional projects for a range of renewable fuels  Trucks and cars may need dual fuel and hybrid solutions if they are not only driving in the specific region using e.g. using biogas and diesel. This is both a technical and economic barrier, but Volvo and other truck providers are developing dual fuel models soon to be delivered to the market.  H2 Logic A/S recently installed a mobile hydrogen refueling station in a winter test area for cars in Northern Sweden. The station is to be used during the winter by car manufacturers conducting test drives of fuel cell vehicles. In February Sweden opened its second refuelling station, and even though it is placed in the most northern and coldest area of Sweden in Arjeplog. H2 based EVs has a high advantage on range compared to normal EVs in very cold weather. 31 A4

32 Pilot projects in Norway  More than 3000 EVs primarily in the Oslo area, is the result of several pilot projects and commercial investments.  "Statens Vejvesen", the Official Authority for road infrastructure, and the postal service in the city of Trondheim are among the public institutions that have bought a fleet of EVs.  A range of initiatives on municipality level as well.  National production of EVs, Think and Buddy gives at god basis for tests on a large public knowledge about the technology.  Field testing of plug-in Toyota Prius in 2011.  You can get 10.000 NOK as a subsidy if you put up a EV charging station in Oslo  In the Oslo area a H2 infrastructure is also being implemented to serve EVs with a fuel cell. 32 A4

33 Pilot projects in Finland and Iceland Iceland  Implementation of H2 infrastructure for cars and H2 vehicles demonstration projects. May produce H2 for export in the future due to large availability of RE electricity based on geothermal energy. Want to be a world leading H2 vehicle demonstration facility. H2 production is based 100 % on RES. The advantage is the longer range of the cars that is needed in this large island with a small population. ( Source: ) Finland  Use of EVs, e.g. electric vans in the postal service, but there is only found a small number of pilot projects.  Europe’s first and large factory for large lithium-ion batteries 33 A4

34 RES based H2 Pilot projects  Primo 2011 Hyundai, Kia Motors and key hydrogen stakeholders from the Nordic countries; Sweden, Denmark, Norway & Iceland signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the aim of collaboration towards market deployment of zero emission hydrogen powered fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). With the MoU Hyundai, Kia hopes to establish its position as one of the leading manufacturers in the global markets for FCEV's. For the Nordic countries the MoU significantly strengthen their position as one among the first regions worldwide where FCEV's are market introduced. The Embassy of Sweden and the Korean Ministry of Knowledge & Economy signed the MoU as co-witnesses at a joint signing ceremony in Seoul, Korea on the 31st of January 2011. ( 34 A4

35 35 BEV pilot projects in Canada: A4

36 36 PHEV pilot projects in Canada: A4

37 37 Case study: Montreal 2000 – Electric vehicle project  24 battery electric vehicles were purchased or leased by 10 private and public organizations  30 charging stations (public and private) were installed by Hydro Quebec (Quebec’s electricity provider)  CAN$ 2 million budget  Users were required to fill out daily logs  Objectives of the pilot project were to observe usage patterns, monitor cost- effectiveness and performance and overall user and fleet manager satisfaction. Users were also asked to participate in public information campaigns at various events A4

38 38 Case study: Montreal 2000 – Electric vehicle project  Results:  77% of daily usage was in the range of 0 – 40 km per day  Readiness and reliability varied between 77% - 100%  Energy consumption varied considerably depending on the external conditions (temperature, road conditions, etc.)  Advantages noted by users: good acceleration, ease of driving, comfort, quiet operation, ease of use of battery charging stations  EV integration into the fleet was more successful when the EVs were assigned a specific role or purpose (rather than just general use)  EV integration into the fleet was more successful when the decision was made by the fleet manager rather than another level of management A4

39 39 Case study: Montreal 2000 – Electric vehicle project  Other outcomes:  The accreditation of a Ford dealership as the first official supplier of electric vehicles in Canada  The establishment of the first public and private EV charging infrastructure  The users in the study chose to continue to use the EVs after the termination of the study  Increased public awareness  Demonstration of feasibility and usability A4

40 40 USA case study: The EV Project  Launched in summer 2010, the EV project is the largest deployment of EVs and charge infrastructure in North America: 8300 EVs, and 15,000 charging stations in 18 cities in 6 states and Washington DC.  US Department of Energy (DOE) awarded a $115 million grant to ECOtality for a 3-year project. This was matched by corporate partners to make a total $230 million for the project.  Nissan and GM/Chevrolet are partners. Buyers of the Nissan Leaf or the Chevrolet Volt receive a residential charger installed for free.  Data collection on technology performance and potential business models is an important part of the project. A4

41 41 Business model: Vehicle-to-grid (V2G)  In September 2009, the State of Delaware signed a Bill into law that allows net metering for vehicles:  “A retail electric customer having on its premises one or more grid-integrated electric vehicles shall be credited in kWh for energy discharged to the grid from the vehicle’s battery at the same kWh rate that the customer pays to charge the battery from the grid.” –Senate Bill No.153, An Act to Amend Title 26 of the Delaware Code Relating to Customer Sited Energy Resources  The research group led by Willett Kempton at the University of Delaware has been conducting extensive research on V2G technology and its applications.  V2G trials and pilot projects:  California: Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) was the first company to demonstrate V2G technology with a converted Toyota Prius. In 2007 it helped Google convert six of their company vehicles to participate in a V2G trial.  Colorado: Xcel Energy, as a part of its SmartGridCity program, is conducting a trial with 6 vehicles in the first phase, followed by 60 vehicles in the second phase. A4

42 42 Business model case study UC Berkeley  UC Berkeley Centre for Entrepreneurship and Technology economic forecast model  Used an economic model to predict the outcome of the implementation of new business model for electric vehicles: switchable batteries with a pay-per- mile service contract.  Network operators offer electric vehicle users pay-per-mile contracts that finance the car batteries as well as a charging and battery-switching infrastructure. This improves the traditional barriers facing electric vehicles: high charging time and low range.  Results of the analysis indicated that in 2030:  64% of light-duty vehicle purchases would be for electric vehicles and 24% of the light-duty vehicle fleet would be electric;  130,000 – 350,000 jobs would be created;  Oil imports reduced by 18% - 38% A4

43 Annex: details of five selected pilot cities  Beijing  Shanghai  Shenzhen  Changchun  Chongqing Changchun Beijing Shanghai Chongqing Shenzhen 43 A4

44 Beijing (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, not included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities)  Number of EV, target and current –1000 NEVs were delivered and utilized in Beijing in 2009, with an additional 1050 expected to be on the market in 2010. The most recent target is to have 5,000 NEV by 2012. –The city plans to develop 1000, 5000 and 24000 Evs in 2010, 2011 and 2012 respectively. Among the total 30000 EVS, 23000 will be pure EV and 7000 will be PHEV.  Subsidies –Beijing was not included in the first batch of pilot cities where consumers could receive up to ¥ 60000 subsidies for each EV purchase, but Beijing government plans to give the same amount of subsidies to the consumers. The government plans to give a total of ¥ 1.73 billion subsidies. If Beijing is included in the national subsidy program, the consumers could get up to ¥ 120000 for each EV purchase. –Beijing government will provide subsidies of no more than 30% construction investment to charging stations.  Investment –In 2009, total funding from the local government for EV and HEV reached ¥ 550 million, which is already in place. 44 A4

45  Infrastructure/Charging Station –Beijing plans to build 36000 slow charging poles in 3 years, to reach 1.2 poles for each EV on average. It also plans to build 100 fast charging stations, and one battery swapping station. One charging/swapping station has finished construction, with four others in pipeline. –Besides charging systems, Beijing is also planning to build two battery recycling stations, ten repair and maintenance service centers, and two information collection and process stations. It is also in the way of founding a Beijing EV Operation Company to promote EV pilot program.  Major Auto Manufacturers involved in EV –One major goal is to establish an EV manufacturing zone in Daxing. Foton, one of the biggest auto manufacturers, has prepared with an investment of ¥ 5 billion. –Beijing Automobile Works: have produced 50 electric taxi, and finished R&D for 2ton, 8ton and 16ton electric sanitation vehicles. –Foton: have mass produced 1060 electric sanitation vehicles.  Renewable Energy –Beijing is part of the Huabei grid, linked to Inner Mongolia and Northeast grid and potentially linked to the Northwest grid. These regions continue to develop wind power. Beijing (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, not included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities) 45 A4

46 Shanghai (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities)  Number of EV, target and current –Shanghai government set target to reach 20,000 private EV purchase by the end of 2012. –For public EV, Shanghai plans to have 19000 pure electric buses (30 routes) and 1000 PHEVs, 3000 of them will be promoted by renting (2600 pure EV and 400 PHEV). –Shanghai expects to have 100k NEV annual manufacturing capacity by 2012, with 60k of them being electric cars. In that case, the annual production value of EV will be about ¥ 30 billion, with 20 billion being that of electric cars.  Subsidies –National subsidies: for plug-in vehicles, a subsidy of maximum ¥ 50,000 will be given. For battery EV, a subsidy of maximum ¥ 60,000 will be available. –Besides the national subsidies, Shanghai government will give another ¥ 20k subsidies to private PHEV purchase, and ¥ 40-50k to private pure EV purchase. –Shanghai government will also give subsidies to charging stations developers, of no more than 20% of the construction investment and no more than ¥ 3 million. It will give discount loan to any company who develops NEV power battery renting services. Subsidies will also be given to companies for EV after-sales service. 46 A4

47  Infrastructure/Charging Station –As part of the smart grid agreement between the Shanghai government and State Grid, the grid company has installed 6 charging stations in Shanghai. –Shanghai expects to have 25000 charging poles and 50 charging/battery swapping stations by 2012.  Major Auto Manufacturers involved in EV –Shanghai Volksagen –Shang GM –Saic Group  Renewable Energy –The city is connected to the Huadong grid. As part of State Grid’s plan, significant amount of wind electricity generated in Inner Mongolia will be transmitted to Huadong grid. Jiangsu, one of the 7 wind bases, will also be able to supply Shanghai with electricity generated from wind, particularly from offshore wind resources. Shanghai (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities) 47 A4

48 Shenzhen (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities)  Number of EV, target and current –Currently has 101 HEV buses in use. According to the “Program for the Promotion of the Demonstration and Implementation of Energy Conservation and New Energy Projects in Shenzhen,” by 2012 there should be 24,000 NEVs for public and private uses. –Shenzhen hopes to reach 25000 private EV purchase target by the end of 2012. By 2015, the cumulative number promoted EV use is expected to reach 100k.  Subsidies –National subsidies: ¥ 50,000 for plug-in vehicles; ¥ 60,000 for battery EV. –Shenzhen government will give another ¥ 30k or 60k subsidies to every HEV and pure EV purchase. –Local vehicle manufacturer BYD’s F2DM and E6 vehicles will get ¥ 89k and ¥ 129k subsidies respectively.  Investment –The local government has invested more than ¥ 2 billion in developing NEVs, which includes private cars. 48 A4

49  Infrastructure/Charging Station –As of June 2010, Shenzhen launched the first city-level EV charging stations in China. –Shenzhen plans to have 50 e-bus charging stations, 2500 officer’s EV charging poles, 200 public charging stations and 10000 charging poles by the end of 2012.  Major Auto Manufacturers involved in EV –BYD –Wuzhoulong Motors Shenzhen (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities) 49 A4

50 Changchun (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities)  Number of EV, target and current –As of the beginning of 2010, Changchun had introduced 100 HEVs in 6 bus routes. The city expects to have 1000 new energy buses in place by 2012. –Changchun government will promote EV use in two ways: whole vehicle renting, and vehicle (without batteries) selling and battery renting.  Subsidies –National subsidies: for plug-in vehicles, a subsidy of ¥ 50,000. For battery EV, a subsidy of ¥ 60,000 –The local subsidy for Evs is about ¥ 40k for each purchase, with no much differentiation between pure EVs and HEVs.  Investment –The local government has invested more than ¥ 2 billion in developing NEVs, which includes private cars.  Infrastructure/Charging Station –15 charging stations and 5,000 charging spots by 2013.  Major Auto Manufacturers involved in EV –First Automobile Work (FAW) 50 A4

51 Chongqing (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, not included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities)  Number of EV, target and current –Chongqing expect to introduce 1150 NEVs by the end of 2011, consisting of 300 publicly used vehicles, 700 taxis, 2 bus routes with 50 new energy buses, and 100 private cars.  Subsidies –For individual owners of Changan hybrid cars, a subsidy of ¥ 43,000 will be issued by the government.  Investment –The local government has invested more than ¥ 2 billion in developing NEVs, which includes private cars.  Infrastructure/Charging Station –Chongqing’s first charging station should be installed by September 2010. In 2010, the grid company will build a charging station and 50 smaller charging stops in Chongqing. By the end of 2015, Chongqing will have 1000 charging spots and 30 charging stations.  Major Auto Manufacturers involved in EV –Changan ( 长安 ) and Lifan auto ( 力帆 ) are the two major EV manufacturers in Chongqing. They are supported by the local government. 51 A4

52 Case Study – BYD power storage stations  BYD used a large number of batteries to build power storage stations. It has built two kinds of power storage stations:  Mobile power storage station: battery pack carried by vehicles. It could charge EV on road  Settled power storage station: battery pack built within the factory  By storing electricity during valley hours and offering power during peak hours, a mobile power station could make revenue of 500 ¥ /day, and a settled power storage station could make revenue of 5000 ¥ /day.  Both types of power storage stations could be charged by the company’s own solar panels.  The stored electricity could also be used for the company’s operation during peak hours.  As the batteries BYD used to build these power storage stations are the same as they use for EV, it helps lower its manufacturing cost of batteries by achieving mass production.  Nighttime grid storage could compete with EV for power, depending on the cost of power during the day for more power-intense processes 52 A4

53 53  Green Car Initiative  R&D on vehicle propulsion technology and alternative fuels  Green eMotion  European Commission and 42 partners from industry, utilities, OEMs, cities, universities and research institutions  € 24.2 million funding from EC, 17.6 million from partners  Developing interoperability standards for the EU  CARS 21  Competitive Automotive Regulatory System for the 21 st Century  May trigger higher uptake of EVs by 2050  ITS (Intelligent Transport Systems) Action Plan  CIVITAS  Benefits of networking (local authorities) A5

54 54 White Paper on Future Transport  Variety of suggestions for policies concerning the transport sector  Focus on cities as the implementing location  User pays principle  Internalizing local externalities through charging for the use of infrastructure  Reducing conventional ICEVs’ share of fleet by 50% until 2030  Abolition of conventional ICEVs’ in cities by 2050  Widely available information on all modes of transport  Policies for reducing GHG-emissions  Polluter pays principle  Vehicle taxation based on CO2-emissions and energy efficiency  Energy taxation  Emission trading (Cap & trade) A5

55 55 RE & Grids Links between EVs & RES-E -Policy  Renewable Energy Directive  Target-share of RE in transport can be achieved via biofuels and RES-E  Electricity Renewable Portfolio Standards  EVs increase demand → absolute deployment of RES-E increases  EU Emission Trading System (ETS)  EVs shift transport’s emissions into the ETS  Emission cap constrains additional production to RES-E A5

56 EV Policies influencing EV/RES deployment Denmark  Total registration tax exemption for EVs until end 2015.  TSO planning include EVs as an important way to increase the percent of wind energy in the grid in the future. Sweden  Subsidies from the state when purchasing an "Environmental car", defined according to specified performance criteria, including use of biofuels and energy efficiency. (Change of regulation in 2011 because this subsidy has been very expensive to the state)  Many years of subsidising biofuels (E85) have resulted in a mature supply infrastructure  Many city and regional busses drive on Biogas in Southern Sweden and Goteborg. This is funded by the region.  Development of a gas infrastructure is given high priority. Norway  Tax subsidy when buying a "Miljøbil" (Environmental car, according to specified performance criteria) as company car.  Large registration tax reductions for EVs Finland  The tax subsidy for commuting is related to CO2 emissions and availability of public transport  Considerations of total tax exemption for EV demonstration projects 56 A5

57 57 Investment in EV implementation  $ 150 billion investment in energy technologies (until 2020)  $ 2 billion investment of the development of battery technologies and components  $ 400 million funding for pilot projects  $ 25 billion credits for updating OEMs‘ production facilities  Tax exemptions for EV purchase A5

58 58 No clear roadmap for charging infrastructure in China  Charging infrastructure (slow & fast charging, battery swapping)  All the three are being demonstrated in pilot cities.  Battery swapping and slow charging are preferred by grid companies.  No governmental preferences.  Both grid companies are working on demonstration projects of swapping stations.  Better Place is cooperating with Chinese battery and EV companies for developing a swappable battery and a special EV model.  Battery swapping might be only implemented for certain applications  Has been implemented for buses  Might be viable for taxi fleets  Standardization  National standards of charging and swapping are still under investigation.  Several pilot cities have already unveiled their own. A5

59 Policy framework to support EV development EV Development Strategy “Automotive Industry Restructuring and Revitalization Plan” released by the State Council, March 2009 R&D Pilot & demonstrations Fiscal Market regulation Standards 863 Program: Key Projects for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles (MOST, 2006) “1000 Vehicles in 10 cities” Promotion Campaign (MOST, 2009) A list of 25 pilot cities could receive subsidy on NEVs (MOST, 200X) Subsidy on additional 6 pilot cities (MOST, 200X) Subsidy for Private New Energy Vehicle Consumers (MOF, 2010) Pilot Project on More Efficient and New Energy Vehicles Used for Public Services (MOF, 2010) Implementation Measures on how subsidy will be given to private EV users; Recommended Types of Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Demonstration Projects for Promotion Application (MOF, 2008) Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Promotion Demonstration Financial Assistance Fund Management Provisional Measures (MOF, 2009) Admittance Management Rules for New Energy Auto Manufacturing Companies and Products (MIIT, 2009) Various national standards for controls, indicators and signs, and test methods for EV Various standards for power charging stations and grid requirements 59 A5

60 The future of EV in China Establish 500,000 annual production capacity for BEV, HEV, FCEV and PHEV “Automotive Industry Restructuring and Revitalization Plan”, State Council 2010-2011 2011-2015 2016-2020 Establish large scale commercialization of BEV BEV and PHEV ownership to reach 500,000 Medium and heavy hybrid EV to reach 1million “Development Plan for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles”, MIIT (Draft) Large scale filtration of HEV Sales of full hybrid to exceed 3 million vehicles Establish commercialization of BEV and PHEV BEV and PHEV ownership to reach 5million, about 5% of the total vehicle ownership Medium and heavy hybrid EV accounts for 50% of total passenger car sales “Development Plan for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles”, MIIT (Draft ) 60 A5

61 December 22, 2010 Name 61  The EV models available in the Nordic countries are almost the same as in the rest of the western world. Examples shown below. Source: Dansk Elbilsalliance. :  Source: Nordic car importers associations Broad range of EV producers on the Nordic market in 2011-2012 ProducerModel AFUTURE EVIdentical with Nissan Qashqai Citroëne.g. C1 and Czero CityElDanish one-person vehicle with many years on the Danish market GreenBuddyBuddy Plus and BuddyCab TeslaTesla S and Tesla Roaster ThinkThink City. Norwegian car BMWMini E BYDE6 ChevroletVolt Mercedes-BenzSmart forTwo ED Mitsubishii-miev VolvoEV30 Nissan Reneault Nissan LEAF, Renault Fluence 61 A6

62 62 Global and US vehicle sales  The USA accounted for 40% of global sales of (P)HEVs in 2009  BEV sales expected to be in the low thousands in 2010. Global2007200820092010201120152020 HEV/ PHEV515,397515,135728,215934,6441,237,1672,781,6433,883,447 Total PV Sales 48,989,46245,808,91943865,49444,708,78347,621,68861,198,06470,905,762 HEV/ PHEV % 1.1% 1.7%2.1%2.6%4.5%5.5% US2007200820092010201120152020 HEV/ PHEV353,152316,251291,659291,116482,6751,466,0701,672,739 Total PV Sales 16,288,02913,408,29010,570,29411,619,66713,190,23616,400,06917,426,043 HEV/ PHEV % 2.2%2.4%2.8%2.5%3.7%8.9%9.6% A6

63 63 Battery electric vehicles available in the USA and Canada 1 Available date. NameOriginTypeUSA 1 CAN 1 RangeTop speedPrice $US BYD e6ChinaCrossover2010n/a250 miles100 mph$40,000 Coda EVUSA4-door2011n/a120 miles80 mph$40,000 Ford Focus EV (Magna)USA4-door2011tba100 milesn/a$40,000 Ford Transit ConnectUS/CanVan2010 80 miles75 mphn/a Mitsubishi i-MievJapan5-door20102012100 miles130 km/h$47,500 Nissan LeafJapan5-door20102012100 miles90 mph$30,000 Toyota Scion IQ ElectricJapan3-door2012n/a100 miles70 mphn/a Smart EDGermany3-door2011201272 miles60 mphn/a Tesla RoadsterUSA2-door2008 244 miles125 mph$129,000 A6

64 64 Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles available in the USA and Canada 1 Available date. NameOriginTypeUSA 1 CAN 1 EV Range Fuel econ. Top speed Price $US Bright IDEA USAVan2013n/a40 miles40 mpg100 mphn/a Chevrolet VoltUSA5-door2010201140 miles320 mpg100 mph$32,500 Fisker KarmaUSA4-door2010 50 miles100 mpg125 mph$80,000 Toyota Prius Plug-inJapan5-door2011201213 miles50 mpg60 mph$40,000 A6

65 Transport sector Best known domestic models in China Year LaunchedPrice (k ¥ )Mileage (km)Subsidy (k ¥ ) Chery M1,201070-100120-150about 60 BYD e62010about 200300-40060 Hafei Saibao201020018060 Zotye Lerio2010unknown 60 Lifan 620EV201010015060 Geely EK-22010about 15018040 Changan Benben Mini2011100-15015045 BAW C302011unknown20060 Haima Freema2011about 16016060 SAIC Roewe2012unknown135about 50 65 A6

66 66 Standardization is in progress  Standardization differences are currently being addressed  Standards are already similar,  differences should be resolved by 2012  Harmonization with Europe may be the next step to consider  Federal governments can provide nation-wide public information campaigns on benefits of EVs and RES-E  On financial support available to consumers (rebates, subsidies, fiscal incentives, etc.)  On improved performance of modern EV’s (lower costs, higher driving range, faster charging times, reliability in cold weather)  On environmental benefits  On cost benefits (as petrol prices increase) A7

67 67 Differences in vehicle standards CMVSS # TitleDetails 101Location and identification of controls and display Metric units required in Canada 108Lighting system and retroflective devices Daytime running lights required in Canada 114ImmobilizerCanadian standards require immobilizers to shut down vehicle if ignition is bypassed. 201Occupant protectionStricter standards were adopted in USA in 1998 that were not updated in Canada 205Glazing materialsStricter standards were adopted in USA in 1996 that were not updated in Canada 208Frontal impact occupant protection standards Seatbelt requirements not harmonized between USA and Canada 214Side door strengthCanadian standards do not include dynamic test requirements 215BumpersDifferent bumper test requirements between USA and Canada. A7

68 Standards  General  GB/T 19596 Terminology of electric vehicles  Safety  GB/T 18384 EV safety specification  Part I: On-board energy storage  Part II: Functional safety means and protection against failures  Part III: Protection of persons against electric hazards  GB/T 19751 HEV safety specification  Design  GB/T 18388 EV- engineering approval evaluation program  GB/T 19750 HEV power approval evaluation program  GB/T 18488.1 General specification of the electrical machines and controllers for EV 68 A7

69 Standards  Test  GB/T 18385 EV power performance test method  GB/T 19752 HEV power performance test method  GB/T 18386 EV reference energy consumption and range-test procedures  GB/T 19753 Test methods for energy consumption of light-duty HEV  GB/T 19754 Test methods for energy consumption of heavy-duty HEV  GB/T 19755 Measurement methods for emissions from light-duty HEV  GB/T 18488.2 Test procedures of the electrical machines and controllers for EV  Charging  Electric Energy Metering for Electric Vehicle AC Charging Spot (coming)  Electric vehicle conductive charging connections (coming) 69 A7

70 Current RES-E policies strengthened with EVs  RES-E target as % of electricity demand  Direct incentive  Absolute target value increases with electricity consumption from EVs  Feed-in tariffs or premiums  Indirect Incentive  Preferential charging improves profitability  More RES-E supported with same subsidy budget  Certificate systems  Enabling role  Transparency for EV owners  Cap and trade systems  Indirect Incentive  Increased CO 2 -price helps RES-E and other low-carbon electricity 70 Background information from RETRANS

71 71 RE & Grids, Current status & 2020 Scenarios  Denmark  CO2 reduction: 30% from 2005 to 2020:  RE : 30% in 2020 (from 17% in 2005)  RE-electricity: 29% in 2020 (from 8,7% in 1997)  Sweden  CO2 reduction: 17% from 2005 to 2020:  RE : 49% in 2020 (from 40% in 2005)  RE-electricity: 60% in 2020 (from 49% in 1997)  Norway  CO2 neutral from 2050  CO2 reduction: 30% from 1990 to 2020  RE-electricity: 90% in 2010  Finland  CO2 reduction: 0% from 2005 to 2020:  RE : 38% i 2020 (from % in 2005)  RE-electricity: 31,5% i 2020 (from 24,7% in 1997) A8 Oil Coal Nat. Gas Hydro Waste Biomass

72 Electricity generation by source and region. Source: Nordregio 2010. A8

73 Nordic Grid interconnectors, a dynamic area  New interconnectors are still being built  Around half of the proposed connections in 2004, shown below are now implemented. 73 A8

74 Expected development of RES in electricity in the Nordic countries 74 In Iceland electricity is based 100% on RES. Source: COWI and Nordic energy Research, 2011 A8

75 75  Production based incentives  Feed-in tariff (FIT) programs are not common in US and Canada. To date, only the Province of Ontario has a FIT program.  Net metering and standard offer programs most common in US and Canada, but by no means widespread.  34 of 50 US States offer production incentives (mostly net metering).  Several federal, fiscal/ financial incentives in US and Canada  Accelerated depreciation  Production incentives  Tax credits, grants, loans  Incentives for indigenous communities employing RE A8

76 76 Fiscal and financial incentives more popular in the US  Some Canadian provinces provide financial incentives (other than production incentives)  Note that in many cases it is technically the utility that is administering the incentive  Fiscal and/ or Financial incentives on state-level in the US Financial Fiscal A8

77 77 RE & Grids Federal programs in the United States:  Renewable Energy Production Incentive (REPI): 1.5 cents/kWh (1993 dollars indexed for inflation) for first 10 years of operation, subject to availability of annual federal appropriations to the program.  Modified Accelerated Cost-Recovery System (MACRS): Renewable energy systems classified as 5-year properties for accelerated depreciation. This also included a 50% first-year bonus depreciation in 2008 – 2011 (the bonus depreciation is renewed annually).  Residential Energy Conservation Subsidy Exclusion: subsidies for residential energy conservation measures (including renewable energy systems) are non-taxable at the federal level.  Business Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC): 30% for solar, fuel cells and small wind and 10% for geothermal, microturbines and CHP.  Renewable Electricity Production tax credit (PTC): 2.2 cents/kWh for solar, geothermal and biomass, 1.1 cents/kWh for other RETs (not solar). A8

78 78 RE & Grids Federal programs in the United States:  Tribal Energy Program: Financial and technical assistance, education and training for indiginous tribes seeking to develop renewable energy resources. Program funding awarded through competitive process.  Renewable Energy Grants (REG): applicable to most RETs, however a developer may choose to use either the REG or the ITC and PTC (a developer may not take advantage of all three programs).  High Energy Cost Grant Program: Grants for EE and RET projects in rural communities where average energy costs are at least 275% over the national average. Grants can range from $75,000 - $5 million and can also be applied to transmission and distribution infrastructure.  Qualified Energy Conservation Bonds (QECB): State, local and tribal governments may issue bonds to finance RE projects. The bond interest is paid in the form of federal tax credits.  Federal Loan Guarantee: provides loan guarantees for projects that "avoid, reduce or sequester air pollutants or anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases; and employ new or significantly improved technologies as compared to commercial technologies in service in the United States at the time the guarantee is issued.“  Residential Renewable Energy Tax Credit: 30% tax credit for residential solar, geothermal, fuel cell and small wind installations. A8

79 79 RE & Grids Federal programs in Canada:  Accelerated Capital Cost Allowance for Efficient and Renewable Energy Generation: accelerated captial depreciation (30% annually on declining balance) for electricity or heat generation from efficient and renewable sources.  Canadian Renewable and Conservation Expenses: expenses incurred for the development of RE projects may be fully deducted or financed via flow-through shares.  EcoAction Community Funding Program: up to $100,000 for financial support of up to 50% of the total costs for a project that has a positive impact on a community (including RE projects).  Technology Early Action Measures (TEAM): Incremental financing for projects that demonstrate innovation in advanced end-use efficiency, biotechnology, decentralized energy production, cleaner fossil fuels and the hydrogen economy.  EcoENERGY for Aboriginal and Northern Communities Program: up to $250,000 for RE projects in Aboriginal and northern communities that rely on diesel generators for power. A8

80 Renewable Portfolio Shares in the USA 80 Renewable portfolio standard Renewable portfolio goal / May 2011 Solar water heating eligible * † Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables Includes non-renewable alternative resources WA: 15% x 2020* CA: 33% x 2020 NV : 25% x 2025* AZ: 15% x 2025 NM: 20% x 2020 (IOUs) 10% x 2020 (co-ops) HI: 40% x 2030 Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement TX: 5,880 MW x 2015 UT: 20% by 2025* CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)* MT: 15% x 2015 ND: 10% x 2015 SD: 10% x 2015 IA: 105 MW MN: 25% x 2025 (Xcel: 30% x 2020) MO: 15% x 2021 WI : Varies by utility; 10% x 2015 statewide MI: 10% & 1,100 MW x 2015* OH : 25% x 2025 † ME: 30% x 2000 New RE: 10% x 2017 NH: 23.8% x 2025 MA: 22.1% x 2020 New RE: 15% x 2020 (+1% annually thereafter) RI: 16% x 2020 CT: 23% x 2020 NY: 29% x 2015 NJ: 20.38% RE x 2021 + 5,316 GWh solar x 2026 PA: ~ 18% x 2021 † MD: 20% x 2022 DE: 25% x 2026* DC: 20% x 2020 NC : 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs) 10% x 2018 (co-ops & munis) VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales x 2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP x 2017 KS: 20% x 2020 OR : 25% x 2025 (large utilities )* 5% - 10% x 2025 (smaller utilities) IL: 25% x 2025 29 states + DC and PR have an RPS (7 states have goals) 29 states + DC and PR have an RPS (7 states have goals) OK: 15% x 2015 PR: 20% x 2035 WV: 25% x 2025* † VA: 15% x 2025* DC A8

81 Increase of Wind Energy especially in Northern Europe  Tripling of capacity within 10 years  Increase especially off-shore:  High installed power, more reliable than on-shore, higher concomitance 81 WindInstalled today 2009 Expected capacity by 2020 Denmark3 273 MW9,0 TWh5 635 MW14,0 TWh Sweden1 448 MW2,5 TWh4 550 MW12,5 TWh Finland147 MW0,3 TWh2 500 MW6,0 TWh Norway431 MW1,0 TWh5 000 MW12,0 TWh Total5 300 MW13 TWh17 700 MW44,5 TWh A9

82 82 North American Electricity of the future: Natural Gas, Wind and Solar  Expected development of Electricity-Mix  Share of gas increasing Share of coal decreasing  Wind (and solar) increasing  Nuclear  Slight increase (US)  Decrease (Canada)  Potential for large-scale growth (installed capacity)  Wind  Solar PV  Hydro  However, there is increasing resistance to new large hydro projects in Canada. Expected Electricity Mix 2035 A9

83 83 RE & Grids Current status & 2020 Scenarios  2020 Target of 15% RE in Energy mix Target value for 2015: 11.4% (2010: 8.59%)  Installed capacity of solar would be 20 GW  Installed capacity of wind would be 150 GW  Installed capacity of hydro would be 380 GW  Installed capacity of nuclear would be 86 GW  Target for carbon intensity decrease by 16% from 2011 to 2015  Development of Extra High Voltage transmission  Long distance transmission especially for RES-E connection A9

84 Installed capacity and forecast of wind capacity growth 84 A9

85 85 RE & Grids Value of regulation Average Annual Market Clearing Price ($/ MWh) 200420052006 PJM42.7549.7332.69 RTO-NE28.9230.2224.02 NY ISO22.5939.2151.26 ERCOT22.6638.07n/a CA ISO29.00n/a36.04 A10

86 86 RE & Grids Reserve power revenue potential A10

87 Foresight Analysis –Nordic Strategies for Renewable Transport 87 A11

88 88 EVs can be accommodated in Canadian grids  In Canada, by 2018 normal load growth will grow by 17% relative to 2006 (i.e. 99 TWh).  In order to accommodate 500,000 BEV’s (≤1%) on the road in 2018, this would require an additional 1.5 TWh, i.e. only 0.2% of normal projected demand. This could be supplied by:  190 MW biomass plant at 90% capacity  230 MW hydro installation at 75% capacity  490 MW wind turbine installation at 35% capacity  Current peak load in Canada is about 100 GW. If 500,000 BEV’s were charging at the same time, this would represent a total additional load of 1.5 GW (1.5% of existing max peak load). A11

89 High penetrations of EVs lead to difficulties in Chinese grids  For Beijing, 100% EV-commuting could not be sustained  If an average commuter EV uses 21 kWh/100 km, and runs 70 km/day, then this EV requires 14.7 kWh/day of power.  The current vehicle population of 5 million would require 73.5 GWh per day.  With 56.97 GWh available between 10 p.m. and 9 a.m. the next day, a fully electric fleet could not be charged fully during the night. 89 A11

90 Phase 1 – Until 2015 IDEAL SCENARIO – Regulation-driven  Adoption of GHG reduction targets  Implementation of RES-E and EV deployment targets & support policies (FITs, purchase rebates, tax incentives)  Grid improvements to support RET and EV targets and incentives  Increased unbundling of electricity markets (where applicable) to allow for greater grid flexibility  Gaining experience  More pilot projects on a larger scale  EV’s will not be on the road in significant numbers  advanced V2G (vehicle to grid) services are not needed yet, but pilot/demonstration projects should be implemented  Industry produces AND MARKETS EV’s in larger numbers  bringing down costs due to learning effects  meeting demand  Vehicle and electrical standards in practice – make any necessary modifications.  Public information campaign about the benefits of RETs and EV’s 90 A12

91 Phase 2 – From 2015 onwards IDEAL SCENARIO – Regulation-driven  Sufficient EV’s on the market and on the road to implement local-scale V2G networks  New projects or extensions of pilot projects  Important to prevent coal-based EV charging  Continued RET deployment and V2G expansion will require continued upgrades to the grid.  A significant percentage of grid electricity is from renewable sources.  Consumer demand will drive future deployment. 91 A12

92 Phase 1 – Until 2015 FEASIBLE SCENARIO – Market-driven  Implementation of some RET and EV support policies (FITs, purchase rebates, tax incentives) – mostly on a local scale.  Early-adopter consumer demand for EV’s drives increased production  This is aided by increasingly strict national and local vehicle fuel efficiency standards  Increased production of EV’s brings down costs, increasing demand further  Increase in EV population requires electricity grid improvements and reinforcements and charging infrastructure development  Implementation of RET and EV deployment targets only in some local jurisdictions  Pilot projects driven by local initiatives, government-industry-university partnerships  Public information campaign about the benefits of RETs and EV’s (by government and industry) 92 A12

93 Phase 2 – From 2015 onwards FEASIBLE SCENARIO – Market-driven  EV purchases slowly increase, driven by consumer demand and fuel efficiency standards  Increased demand continues grid and infrastructure improvements  Entrepreneurs will call for further unbundling of electricity market to allow for easier market penetration  More V2G pilot projects  Eventually, consumer demand for:  V2G implementation  FIT programs 93 A12

94 94 EU Two-Phase approach  Policy options for future transport  Phase 1 – Until 2016 Restructuring charges and taxes  Motor fuel taxation bound to energy and CO 2  Mandatory infrastructure charge for heavy-duty vehicles  Evaluate and develop guidelines for car road charging schemes  Internalize external costs  Linking vehicle taxation to environmental performance  Review of VAT on passenger transport? Review of company car taxation?  Phase 2 – From 2016 onwards  Full and mandatory internalization of external costs  Noise, local pollution, congestion, wear & tear  Market based measures for furthering GHG emissions reductions A12

95 Feasibility of policy options Phase 1 – Until 2015  Gaining experience  Learning effects enable manufacturers to increase EV/ battery quality and decrease cost.  Preference among slow charging, fast charging and battery swapping.  Standardization  Raise market recognition of EV  Enhance acceptance of EV by developing pilot programs.  Develop low-speed low-cost EV as compensation for ICEVs to reach mass use.  Infrastructure construction and equipment R&D  Build major RES-E bases, so that RES-E account for 25% of all installed capacity. (state grid)  Increase long-distance transmission capability and efficiency.  Smart meter, spinning reserve and demand-side management 95 A12

96 Feasibility of policy options Phase 2 – From 2015 onwards  RES-E continue to increase in the grid  Reach over 28% of all installed capacity  All generated electricity will be connected to gird  RES-E could be transmitted from remote energy centers to demand centers  Mass production of mature EV models  Ineligible models are eliminated from the market after piloting  Quality of battery improve rapidly, so that performance of EV is compatible to fossil fuel cars  Good coverage of infrastructure  Charging/swapping stations cover all large-medium sized cities.  Advanced V2G services should be in place 96 A12

97 North America 240,000 km highways = 0,7 km per 1000 people 4 million km other roads = 12 km per 1000 people Europe 73.000 km highway = 0,14 km per 1000 people 1,8 million km other roads = 3,7 km per 1000 people Less dense highway systems in Eastern European Countries China 74.000 km highway = 0,055 km per 1000 people 4 million km other roads = 2,97 km per 1000 people Highway network concentrates on economically important Eastern Chinese regions Road Infrastructure is densest in North America 97 A13

98 THANK YOU! For additional information on RETD Online: Contact:

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