Presentation on theme: "RETRANS2 – Final Report Annex Ann-Kathrin Meinerzhagen, Eva Szczechowicz RWTH Aachen University, Germany 10. June 2011."— Presentation transcript:
1 RETRANS2 – Final Report Annex Ann-Kathrin Meinerzhagen, Eva Szczechowicz RWTH Aachen University, Germany10. June 2011
2 Table of Annexes A1 – Acronyms A2 – References A3 – List of subsidies and incentives for EVsA4 – Pilot projects in the three regionsA5 – Policies concerning EV deploymentA6 – List of available EV modelsA7 – StandardsA8 – Renewable Energy policiesA9 – Expected growth in electricity sectorA10 – Revenue from Ancillary services for EVsA11 – Impact of EVs on grids and productionA12 – Two phase development of Co-EvolutionA13 – Road infrastructure
3 Acronyms A1 EHV: Extra High Voltage EV : Electric Vehicle GHG: Greenhouse GasHEV: Hybrid Electric VehicleICEV: Vehicle with Internal Combustion EngineNEV: New Energy VehicleOEM: Original Equipment Manufacturer (Vehicle and Battery Manufacturers)PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric VehiclePV: Passenger VehicleRE: Renewable EnergyV2G: Vehicle to GridVAT: Value Added Tax
4 References A2 ACEA AVERE Black & Veatch, What will be the North American energy industry’s “new normal”.CANMET Energy, Electric Vehicle Technology Roadmap for Canada,China Electric Power Yearbook 2009, Azure International’s wind market analysisChina Electricity YearbookChina Energy Statistic Yearbook
5 A2References (cont.)China Greentech Initiative, "China Greentech Initiative 2010: Cleaner Transportation Sector, Working Session #3." Beijing, China: China Greentechn Initiative, Print.CIA: The World FactbookCommunauto, 2010 (press release). Communauto to offer all-electric Nissan LEAF to clients inCOWI (2011): "Kortlægning af strategier for lavenergibyggeri i EU Lande", Report for the Danish Government.Danish Commission on Climate Change (2010): Nordic Foresight Analysis, Renewable transport 2011Danish Energy Authority. "Report on charging stations" (Danish)Danish Energy Strategy 2050, Danish Government, March 2011
6 A2References (cont.)Earley, Robert J., Liping Kang, Feng An, and Lucia Green-Weiskel. United Nations. Electric Vehicles in the Context of Sustainable Development in China. United Nations, Web. in press.Electric Mobility Canada (2010): Demonstrating Electric Vehicles in Canada.Energinet.dkENTSO-E: Factsheet 2011Environment Canada, Canada lists emissions target under the Copenhagen accord.European Commission, 2009: Climate and Renewable Energy PackageEuropean Commission, 2009: Directive on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources
7 A2References (cont.)European Commission, Directorate-General for Research, Directorate H – Transport (2010): European Green Cars Initiative. Towards an electric future?.European Commission (2011): Review of European and national financing of renewable energyEuropean Commission (2011): White Paper. Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system.European Commission (2011): Impact Assessment. Accompanying document to the White Paper. Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system.European Commission (2011): Comission Staff Working Document – Accompanying the White Paper – Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system7
8 A2References (cont.)European Commission (2011): A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050.European Environment Agency (2009): Towards a resource-efficient transport system.European Environment Agency, Passenger transport by mode in passenger km per capita.European Parliament & Council (2009): DIRECTIVE 2009/28/EC of 23 April 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources and amending and subsequently repealing Directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/ECEuropean Parliament, Directorate-General for Internal Policies, Directorate – Industry, Research and Energy (2010): Challenges for a European Market for Electric Vehicles.European Union (2011): Energy Infrastructure. Priorities for 2020 and beyond ─ A Blueprint for an integrated European energy network
9 References (cont.) A2 Eurostat (2010): Yearly energy statistics 2008 Finish Energy Industry (2011): Energy taxation in Europe, Japan and the United StatesG4V (2010) : Parameter Manual.Huang Yonghe. China Automotive Technology & Research Center. Personal Interview by Azure International. 24 Feb 2011Hunt, T., Why electric vehicles will reduce GHG emissions."Imbalance of Power Production and Consumption in China." Wind Energy Resource Characteristics and Development Potential. Web. 28 Feb <Institute for Energy Research, Obama Administration Pushes Electric Vehicles.9
10 A2References (cont.)International Energy Agency (2009): Technology Roadmap. Electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.International Energy Agency (2010): RETRANS – Opportunities for the Use of Renewable Energy in Road Transport – Policy Makers Report.International Energy Agency (2011): Technology Roadmap. Smart Grids.IEA Country Statistics:International Monetary FundJ.D. Power and Associates (2010): Drive Green 2020: More Hope Than Reality?Jenny Gold (2009): A Modern Electric Grid: The New Highway System? For NPR: Power Hungry series.
11 A2References (cont.)Kempton, W.(2009): Vehicle to Grid Power.Lai, Xiaokang. China Electric Power Research Institute. Personal Interview by the Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation. 22 Feb 2011.Lindholm, Tommy (2010): Vattenfall’s E-mobility programLu Zongxiang. Tsinghua University. Personal Interview by the Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation. 22 Feb 2011National Centre for Advanced Transportation (2001): Electric Vehicle Project Montreal 2000.National Public Radio (2009): Special Series: Power Hungry – Reinventing the U.S. Electric Grid, Visualizing The U.S. Electric Grid.Natural Resources Canada, Directory of Energy Efficiency and Alternative Energy Programs in Canada,
12 A2References (cont.)Nordic Energy Research. "Foresight Analysis – Nordic Strategies for Renewable Transport", Final Report, March 2010.Nordic System Operators (2010):Norsk ElbilsforeningPacific Institute for Climate Solutions, Electrifying the BC Vehicle Fleet, 2009.RITA, North American Freight Transportation. Sessa, C. and Enei, R. (2009): EU transport demand: Trends and drivers. ISIS, paper produced as part of contract ENV.C.3/SER/2008/ 0053 between European Commission Directorate-General Environment and AEA Technology plc.Statistics Canada, North American Transportation Highlights.12
13 A2References (cont.)Statistics Canada, Motor vehicle registrations.Statistics Canada, Energy Supply and Demand.Statistics Finland, 2009,Statistics IcelandTemaNord 2008:587. CO2-reductions in the transport sector in the Nordic countries, Nordic Council of Ministers, (Danish)The EV-Project:United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects.United Nations. Population Division. Department of Economic and Social Affairs: World Urbanization Prospects, The 2009 revisionUnited Nations Statistic Division: Demographic Yearbook 2008.13
14 A2References (cont.)US Census Bureau, State Motor Vehicle Registrations.US Census Bureau, PopulationUS Department of Agriculture (2005): Rural Transportation at a GlanceUS Department of Energy, Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency,US Department of Energy, President Obama sets a target for cutting US GHG emissions.US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Electric Power Annual,US Energy Information Administration (2009):14
15 A2References (cont.)University of California, Berkeley, Centre for Entrepreneurship and Technology (2009): Electric Vehicles in the United States: A New Model With Forecasts to 2030.Wang Hewu. Tsinghua University. Personal Interview by Azure International. 25 Feb 2011Wen Haiping. China Academy of Sciences. Personal Interview by the Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation. 22 Feb 201115
16 Subsidies and incentives for electric vehicles in Europe European incentives:7th Framework ProgrammeFunding of research projects and their pilot fleetsDifferent national approaches:Subsidies per purchaseUK, F, E, B, AU, CYDiscussed in SwedenTax exemptionsVAT, registration tax, annual circulation taxTraffic privileges (UK, NL, N)Use of bus lanesExemption from road tolls and ferry chargesFree parkingFuel subsidy (NL)Taxation benefits for EVsin Europe Vehicle taxation linked to emissions Reduced annual tax, Reduced registration fee, Both annual tax and fee reducedSources:European Parliament, 2010: Challenges for a European market for Electric VehiclesACEA.beFinnish Energy Industries - Energy Taxation in Europe, Japan and The United States
17 Subsidies and incentives in Europe Financial / tax-related/ non-monetary incentives for EVsAustriaUp to 1100€ or 15% subsidy in several provinces50% VAT reduction, No first licence tax, no motor tax, Bonus-malus system for low-emissions vehiclesInsurance facilitiesParking & charging facilities (especially Vienna)Circulation limited in some citiesBelgium15% rebate (max . € 3280) for CO2<105g/km, 3% rebate (max. €615) for CO2<115g/km, personal income tax reduction of 30% of purchase price (max. €9000)Lower circulation taxParking & charging facilitiesProposal: up to €4000 per carCyprus€700 per EV-purchase (max. 7 purchases)Czech RepublicEVs are exempt from road tax (for business cars)
18 Subsidies and incentives in Europe Financial / tax-related/ non-monetary incentives for EVsFranceUp to €3200 (€2000 for HEVs) subsidy; 15 k€ per bus (>30 seats), 1 k€ per bus (<30 seats)Road tax – no TIPP; Some regions: % reduction of vignetteParking & charging facilitiesEV imposed by law: Loi sur l‘airMany pilot projectsGermanyNo/ lower tax for 5 years, fixed tax-rates thereafterGreeceExemption from registration and one specific tax, No or lower circulation taxLower insurance premiumFree on-street charging in Athens & AmarouszsionFree circulation in some restricted areasItalySubsidy of up to 65% of extra-costsRegional incentives: 40-50% of price , initiative for 2-wheelersNo tax, 50% reduction on insuranceSome cities: Parking & charging facilities, restricted circulation exemptions
19 Subsidies and incentives in Europe Financial / tax-related/ non-monetary incentives for EVsMonacoSubsidies: 30% of BEV-price, €3000 for HEV which can drive 100% electricallyHalf tax for annual register licence (BEVs)Free parkingSpecial registering plateNetherlandsUp to €4000 subsidy (DEMO project)Reduction of VAT in some cases, No BPMR&D aidsPortugalBEVs exempt from registration tax, HEVs pay reduced (50%) registration taxRomaniaEVs exempt from registration taxSpainVarious regional subsidies: up to 10 k€ (?)/ €2000 for HEVs, €6000 for BEVs or 70%SwitzerlandDifferent regulation for each Canton.United Kingdom25% (max. £5000) discount per purchaseEVs exempt from annual circulation tax, can be exempt from company car tax
20 Subsidies and incentives in Nordic Countries Financial / tax-related/ non-monetary incentives for EVsDenmarkBEVs exempt from registration charge, lowest possible annual motor vehicle tax. PHEVs not exempt from registration charge.Free on-street charging in some citiesFinlandUp to 30% subsidyBEVs pay reduced (by 77%) motive power tax . PHEVs (diesel) pay motive power tax reduced by 27%, PHEV’s (petrol) tax was reduced by >90%.Free car parks in several citiesNorwayOne city gives up to €3400 per vehicleBEVs are exempt from both car tax and VAT. They pay a very low annual registration charge.Parking & charging in Oslo, exempt from parking fees in public parkings. No highway-toll and car-ferry fares. Electric vehicles also have a higher mileage allowance in the public sector.SwedenSubsidy of 40% of price differenceHEVs(emissions max. 120 g/km) and BEVs consuming 37 kWh/100 km are exempt from annual motor tax for 5 years. Company vehicle taxation: the taxable value of electric and hybrid vehicles is reduced by 40%. Maximum reduction €1750 per annum.Exemption from circulation restriction in some inner cities, Permission to use bus lanesSource: ACEA.org
21 Transport Sector Government incentives Different national approaches:Denmark and Norway have the highest registration tax on ordinary cars on more than 100 % of the value, Finland has a registration tax on around 49 % and Sweden has no registration tax. Norway and Denmark have a complete exemption for EVs from paying registration tax.Other benefits granted to purchasers of electric vehicles include the right to drive on bus lanes, free parking in public car parks, exemption from road tolls and car ferry charges in Norway, and a reduced tax rate on electric vehicles for businesses in Sweden and Norway. Sweden has recently made this package a little less attractive.
22 A3 Vehicle Type Credits Vehicle Examples HEVs $ 250 - $ 3,400* Toyota Prius, Honda InsightBEVs$ 7,500Nissan Leaf, Tesla RoadsterPHEVs and Extended Range EVsToyota Prius PHEV, Chevrolet Volt ER-EVClean Diesel Vehicles$ $ 2,200BMW 335d, VW Jetta TDI* Expired in 3/2010
23 A3National and local subsidies for charging infrastructure, EV-acquisition or OEMs + non-monetary benefitsUp to ¥ 100 billionFederal subsidies for public EV-acquisition3000 ¥ / kWh, max. ¥ 60,000 per BEVSubsidies for private EVsFederal subsidies in 5 pilot citiesSome pilot cities have local subsidiesNon-Monetary: no traffic restrictions and car license lottery in BeijingTax exemptions, i.e. for private EVs in BeijingThe car license plate lottery started in Jan There is a quota of license plates every month, 88% of which go to private cars.Traffic restrictions were introduced in April 2010: 20% private cars are taken out of the road every working day during peak hours according to their license plates’ last digit.
24 Pilot Projects in Europe A4Pilot Projects in EuropeCountryPilot ProjectLocationNo. EvsAustriaVLOTTEBregenz/ VorarlbergE-Scooters and EVs (Th!ink City mostly)ElectroDrive SalzburgSalzburgE-Bikes or EVs (iMiEV, Th!ink City)FranceAutolib ParisParis4000BolloréPilot cities for charging infrastructureAix-en-Provence, Angoulême, Bordeaux, Grenoble, le Havre, le Grand Nancy, Nice, Orléans, Paris, Rennes, Rouen, Strasbourg
25 Pilot Projects in Europe A4Pilot Projects in EuropeCountryPilot ProjectLocationNo. EvsFranceStrasbourg100 PHEVToyota & EDFPublic procurement5000 H&BLa Poste10 000GermanyE-Mobility BerlinBerlin100eSmarts + infrastructureBeMobility50Car sharing (eMinis), E-Bikes, E-ScootersBremenCar sharing, commutingHamburgHybrid busses & EVs
26 Pilot Projects in Europe A4Pilot Projects in EuropeCountryPilot ProjectLocationNo. EvsGermanyPendlerverkehr NRWRhein-RuhrCommuting, commercial vehicles, Busses, Scooters & BikesModellregionRhein-MainEVs at Airport, public transporteflottMunichIrelandAran Islands8Self-sustainability possibleItalye-mobility ItalyRome, Milano, Pisa>100Enel & Daimler
27 Pilot Projects in Europe A4Pilot Projects in EuropeCountryPilot ProjectLocationNo. EvsNetherlandsThe New MotionAmsterdam(2015)(2020)Renault-Nissan & KommePortugalMobi.EPublic chargingSpainMovEleBarcelona, Madrid, Sevilla2000550 charging stationsUnited KingdomPlugged-In PlacesLondon, Milton Keynes, NortheastSource LondonLondon1001300 charging points, parking discountSwitzerlandSmart electric driveZurich50eSmartsalpmobilGotthard regionLeasing for tourists
28 Overview of selected Nordic pilot projects, 2010 -2012 A4Overview of selected Nordic pilot projects,DenmarkSwedenNorwayFinlandEdison ProjectVolvo C30 ElectricField testing of plug-in PriusProject in the postal sectorEnergistyrelsen, Pilot project, €Volvo TrucksStatens VëgvesenBetter Place, Dong energyPostal service project, TrondheimDTU, test of Plug-in hybrid."Europe's biggest EV-test" by ChoosEVSubsidies for charging stations
29 Pilot projects in Denmark € 5 million is provided by the state during a three year period to test EV's and infrastructure. The tests and pilot projects includes taxis, intelligent "refuelling" etc,The Danish Energy Authority also finances Expert groups and studies on EV infrastructure and alternative fuels.ChoosEV – "Europe's biggest EV-test” 2011.Danish company owned by SydEnergi and SEAS and Sixt Danmark. supported by public development funds ((8,1 mio. DKR from the System Operators Research and Development Fund).90 Mitsubishi iMiEV Evs will be on the road in spring 2011, and 300 vehicles will be tested by more than 2000 Danish families. The project ends in June More info on"Better Place"EV's and battery changing stations10-20 battery changing stations is expected to be build in 2011, at the Renault Fluence can be bought for DKR ( EUR) without the battery.The battery is part of a service agreement where a charging station is build at your house, and you rent the battery and can change it unlimited whenever you choose. The price includes electricity and current prices are from 1495 DKR/month (200 EUR) ( km/year) to 2995 DKR/month.(400 EUR) for driven kilometre per year. Delivery is set to fall 2011.
30 The Danish Edison project EV seen as a balancing measure to enable the Danish government’s energy strategy, which implies 50% wind power penetration in the electric power system.storage device for smoothing power fluctuations from renewable resources (wind power )provide valuable system services for a reliable power system operationenable an increased share of RES in the power system for supply of the conventional electricity demandThe Edison project aims at developing system solutions and technologies for EVs and PHEVenable a sustainable, economic and reliable energy systemproperties of EVs are utilised in a power system with substantial fluctuating renewable energy.Prepare and provide a technical platform for Danish demonstrations of EVs with emphasis on the power system integration aspects.To develop standard system solutions for EVs, which are applicable globally, by utilising the Danish leading knowledge within distributed energy resources and operation of energy systems with high wind power penetration, and thereby, release the potential for Danish export of technology, system solutions, and knowledge.
31 Pilot projects in Sweden, A4Pilot projects in Sweden,2011: Volvo tests different kinds of renewable fuels in their Trucks, and a new Volvo C30 electric, a smaller family car, is being tested in Sweden by several Swedish families.Different regional projects for a range of renewable fuelsTrucks and cars may need dual fuel and hybrid solutions if they are not only driving in the specific region using e.g. using biogas and diesel. This is both a technical and economic barrier, but Volvo and other truck providers are developing dual fuel models soon to be delivered to the market.H2 Logic A/S recently installed a mobile hydrogen refueling station in a winter test area for cars in Northern Sweden. The station is to be used during the winter by car manufacturers conducting test drives of fuel cell vehicles. In February Sweden opened its second refuelling station, and even though it is placed in the most northern and coldest area of Sweden in Arjeplog. H2 based EVs has a high advantage on range compared to normal EVs in very cold weather.Source :Source:H2 Logic.
32 Pilot projects in Norway More than 3000 EVs primarily in the Oslo area, is the result of several pilot projects and commercial investments."Statens Vejvesen", the Official Authority for road infrastructure, and the postal service in the city of Trondheim are among the public institutions that have bought a fleet of EVs.A range of initiatives on municipality level as well.National production of EVs, Think and Buddy gives at god basis for tests on a large public knowledge about the technology.Field testing of plug-in Toyota Prius in 2011.You can get NOK as a subsidy if you put up a EV charging station in OsloIn the Oslo area a H2 infrastructure is also being implemented to serve EVs with a fuel cell.Source: Norsk Elbilsforening, 2011, official web page
33 Pilot projects in Finland and Iceland Implementation of H2 infrastructure for cars and H2 vehicles demonstration projects. May produce H2 for export in the future due to large availability of RE electricity based on geothermal energy. Want to be a world leading H2 vehicle demonstration facility. H2 production is based 100 % on RES. The advantage is the longer range of the cars that is needed in this large island with a small population. (Source:FinlandUse of EVs, e.g. electric vans in the postal service, but there is only found a small number of pilot projects.Europe’s first and large factory for large lithium-ion batteries
34 RES based H2 Pilot projects Primo 2011 Hyundai, Kia Motors and key hydrogen stakeholders from the Nordic countries; Sweden, Denmark, Norway & Iceland signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the aim of collaboration towards market deployment of zero emission hydrogen powered fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). With the MoU Hyundai, Kia hopes to establish its position as one of the leading manufacturers in the global markets for FCEV's. For the Nordic countries the MoU significantly strengthen their position as one among the first regions worldwide where FCEV's are market introduced. The Embassy of Sweden and the Korean Ministry of Knowledge & Economy signed the MoU as co-witnesses at a joint signing ceremony in Seoul, Korea on the 31st of January (
35 BEV pilot projects in Canada: Source: Electric Mobility Canada, Demonstrating Electric Vehicles in Canada, 2010.
37 Case study: Montreal 2000 – Electric vehicle project 24 battery electric vehicles were purchased or leased by 10 private and public organizations30 charging stations (public and private) were installed by Hydro Quebec (Quebec’s electricity provider)CAN$ 2 million budgetUsers were required to fill out daily logsObjectives of the pilot project were to observe usage patterns, monitor cost-effectiveness and performance and overall user and fleet manager satisfaction. Users were also asked to participate in public information campaigns at various eventsSource: National Centre for Advanced Transportation, Electric Vehicle Project Montreal 2000, 2001.
38 Case study: Montreal 2000 – Electric vehicle project Results:77% of daily usage was in the range of 0 – 40 km per dayReadiness and reliability varied between 77% - 100%Energy consumption varied considerably depending on the external conditions (temperature, road conditions, etc.)Advantages noted by users: good acceleration, ease of driving, comfort, quiet operation, ease of use of battery charging stationsEV integration into the fleet was more successful when the EVs were assigned a specific role or purpose (rather than just general use)EV integration into the fleet was more successful when the decision was made by the fleet manager rather than another level of managementSource: National Centre for Advanced Transportation, Electric Vehicle Project Montreal 2000, 2001.
39 Case study: Montreal 2000 – Electric vehicle project Other outcomes:The accreditation of a Ford dealership as the first official supplier of electric vehicles in CanadaThe establishment of the first public and private EV charging infrastructureThe users in the study chose to continue to use the EVs after the termination of the studyIncreased public awarenessDemonstration of feasibility and usabilitySource: National Centre for Advanced Transportation, Electric Vehicle Project Montreal 2000, 2001.
40 USA case study: The EV Project Launched in summer 2010, the EV project is the largest deployment of EVs and charge infrastructure in North America: 8300 EVs, and 15,000 charging stations in 18 cities in 6 states and Washington DC.US Department of Energy (DOE) awarded a $115 million grant to ECOtality for a 3-year project. This was matched by corporate partners to make a total $230 million for the project.Nissan and GM/Chevrolet are partners. Buyers of the Nissan Leaf or the Chevrolet Volt receive a residential charger installed for free.Data collection on technology performance and potential business models is an important part of the project.Source: The EV project website,
41 Business model: Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) A4Business model: Vehicle-to-grid (V2G)In September 2009, the State of Delaware signed a Bill into law that allows net metering for vehicles:“A retail electric customer having on its premises one or more grid-integrated electric vehicles shall be credited in kWh for energy discharged to the grid from the vehicle’s battery at the same kWh rate that the customer pays to charge the battery from the grid.” –Senate Bill No.153, An Act to Amend Title 26 of the Delaware Code Relating to Customer Sited Energy ResourcesThe research group led by Willett Kempton at the University of Delaware has been conducting extensive research on V2G technology and its applications.V2G trials and pilot projects:California: Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) was the first company to demonstrate V2G technology with a converted Toyota Prius. In 2007 it helped Google convert six of their company vehicles to participate in a V2G trial.Colorado: Xcel Energy, as a part of its SmartGridCity program, is conducting a trial with 6 vehicles in the first phase, followed by 60 vehicles in the second phase.Source: Kempton, W., Vehicle to Grid Power, 2009.
42 Business model case study UC Berkeley UC Berkeley Centre for Entrepreneurship and Technology economic forecast modelUsed an economic model to predict the outcome of the implementation of new business model for electric vehicles: switchable batteries with a pay-per-mile service contract.Network operators offer electric vehicle users pay-per-mile contracts that finance the car batteries as well as a charging and battery-switching infrastructure. This improves the traditional barriers facing electric vehicles: high charging time and low range.Results of the analysis indicated that in 2030:64% of light-duty vehicle purchases would be for electric vehicles and 24% of the light-duty vehicle fleet would be electric;130,000 – 350,000 jobs would be created;Oil imports reduced by 18% - 38%Source: University of California, Berkeley, Centre for Entrepreneurship and Technology, Electric Vehicles in the United States: A New Model With Forecasts to 2030, 2009.
43 Annex: details of five selected pilot cities BeijingShanghaiShenzhenChangchunChongqingChangchunBeijingShanghaiChongqingShenzhen
44 Number of EV, target and current Beijing (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, not included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities)Number of EV, target and current1000 NEVs were delivered and utilized in Beijing in 2009, with an additional 1050 expected to be on the market in The most recent target is to have 5,000 NEV by 2012.The city plans to develop 1000, 5000 and Evs in 2010, 2011 and 2012 respectively. Among the total EVS, will be pure EV and 7000 will be PHEV.SubsidiesBeijing was not included in the first batch of pilot cities where consumers could receive up to ¥ subsidies for each EV purchase, but Beijing government plans to give the same amount of subsidies to the consumers. The government plans to give a total of ¥ 1.73 billion subsidies. If Beijing is included in the national subsidy program, the consumers could get up to ¥ for each EV purchase.Beijing government will provide subsidies of no more than 30% construction investment to charging stations.InvestmentIn 2009, total funding from the local government for EV and HEV reached ¥ 550 million, which is already in place.
45 Infrastructure/Charging Station Beijing (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, not included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities)Infrastructure/Charging StationBeijing plans to build slow charging poles in 3 years, to reach 1.2 poles for each EV on average. It also plans to build 100 fast charging stations, and one battery swapping station. One charging/swapping station has finished construction, with four others in pipeline.Besides charging systems, Beijing is also planning to build two battery recycling stations, ten repair and maintenance service centers, and two information collection and process stations. It is also in the way of founding a Beijing EV Operation Company to promote EV pilot program.Major Auto Manufacturers involved in EVOne major goal is to establish an EV manufacturing zone in Daxing. Foton, one of the biggest auto manufacturers, has prepared with an investment of ¥ 5 billion.Beijing Automobile Works: have produced 50 electric taxi, and finished R&D for 2ton, 8ton and 16ton electric sanitation vehicles.Foton: have mass produced 1060 electric sanitation vehicles.Renewable EnergyBeijing is part of the Huabei grid, linked to Inner Mongolia and Northeast grid and potentially linked to the Northwest grid. These regions continue to develop wind power.
46 Number of EV, target and current Shanghai (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities)Number of EV, target and currentShanghai government set target to reach 20,000 private EV purchase by the end of 2012.For public EV, Shanghai plans to have pure electric buses (30 routes) and 1000 PHEVs, 3000 of them will be promoted by renting (2600 pure EV and 400 PHEV).Shanghai expects to have 100k NEV annual manufacturing capacity by 2012, with 60k of them being electric cars. In that case, the annual production value of EV will be about ¥ 30 billion, with 20 billion being that of electric cars.SubsidiesNational subsidies: for plug-in vehicles, a subsidy of maximum ¥ 50,000 will be given. For battery EV, a subsidy of maximum ¥ 60,000 will be available.Besides the national subsidies, Shanghai government will give another ¥ 20k subsidies to private PHEV purchase, and ¥ 40-50k to private pure EV purchase.Shanghai government will also give subsidies to charging stations developers, of no more than 20% of the construction investment and no more than ¥ 3 million. It will give discount loan to any company who develops NEV power battery renting services. Subsidies will also be given to companies for EV after-sales service.
47 Infrastructure/Charging Station Shanghai (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities)Infrastructure/Charging StationAs part of the smart grid agreement between the Shanghai government and State Grid, the grid company has installed 6 charging stations in Shanghai.Shanghai expects to have charging poles and 50 charging/battery swapping stations by 2012.Major Auto Manufacturers involved in EVShanghai VolksagenShang GMSaic GroupRenewable EnergyThe city is connected to the Huadong grid. As part of State Grid’s plan, significant amount of wind electricity generated in Inner Mongolia will be transmitted to Huadong grid. Jiangsu, one of the 7 wind bases, will also be able to supply Shanghai with electricity generated from wind, particularly from offshore wind resources.
48 Number of EV, target and current Shenzhen (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities)Number of EV, target and currentCurrently has 101 HEV buses in use. According to the “Program for the Promotion of the Demonstration and Implementation of Energy Conservation and New Energy Projects in Shenzhen,” by 2012 there should be 24,000 NEVs for public and private uses.Shenzhen hopes to reach private EV purchase target by the end of By 2015, the cumulative number promoted EV use is expected to reach 100k.SubsidiesNational subsidies: ¥ 50,000 for plug-in vehicles; ¥ 60,000 for battery EV.Shenzhen government will give another ¥ 30k or 60k subsidies to every HEV and pure EV purchase.Local vehicle manufacturer BYD’s F2DM and E6 vehicles will get ¥ 89k and ¥ 129k subsidies respectively.InvestmentThe local government has invested more than ¥ 2 billion in developing NEVs, which includes private cars.
49 Infrastructure/Charging Station Shenzhen (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities)Infrastructure/Charging StationAs of June 2010, Shenzhen launched the first city-level EV charging stations in China.Shenzhen plans to have 50 e-bus charging stations, 2500 officer’s EV charging poles, 200 public charging stations and charging poles by the end of 2012.Major Auto Manufacturers involved in EVBYDWuzhoulong Motors
50 Number of EV, target and current Changchun (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities)Number of EV, target and currentAs of the beginning of 2010, Changchun had introduced 100 HEVs in 6 bus routes. The city expects to have 1000 new energy buses in place by 2012.Changchun government will promote EV use in two ways: whole vehicle renting, and vehicle (without batteries) selling and battery renting.SubsidiesNational subsidies: for plug-in vehicles, a subsidy of ¥ 50,000. For battery EV, a subsidy of ¥ 60,000The local subsidy for Evs is about ¥ 40k for each purchase, with no much differentiation between pure EVs and HEVs.InvestmentThe local government has invested more than ¥ 2 billion in developing NEVs, which includes private cars.Infrastructure/Charging Station15 charging stations and 5,000 charging spots by 2013.Major Auto Manufacturers involved in EVFirst Automobile Work (FAW)
51 Number of EV, target and current Chongqing (included in 25 public EV pilot cities, not included in 5 private EV purchase subsidy cities)Number of EV, target and currentChongqing expect to introduce 1150 NEVs by the end of 2011, consisting of 300 publicly used vehicles, 700 taxis, 2 bus routes with 50 new energy buses, and 100 private cars.SubsidiesFor individual owners of Changan hybrid cars, a subsidy of ¥ 43,000 will be issued by the government.InvestmentThe local government has invested more than ¥ 2 billion in developing NEVs, which includes private cars.Infrastructure/Charging StationChongqing’s first charging station should be installed by September In 2010, the grid company will build a charging station and 50 smaller charging stops in Chongqing. By the end of 2015, Chongqing will have 1000 charging spots and 30 charging stations.Major Auto Manufacturers involved in EVChangan (长安) and Lifan auto (力帆) are the two major EV manufacturers in Chongqing. They are supported by the local government.
52 Case Study – BYD power storage stations BYD used a large number of batteries to build power storage stations. It has built two kinds of power storage stations:Mobile power storage station: battery pack carried by vehicles. It could charge EV on roadSettled power storage station: battery pack built within the factoryBy storing electricity during valley hours and offering power during peak hours, a mobile power station could make revenue of 500 ¥ /day, and a settled power storage station could make revenue of 5000 ¥ /day.Both types of power storage stations could be charged by the company’s own solar panels.The stored electricity could also be used for the company’s operation during peak hours.As the batteries BYD used to build these power storage stations are the same as they use for EV, it helps lower its manufacturing cost of batteries by achieving mass production.Nighttime grid storage could compete with EV for power, depending on the cost of power during the day for more power-intense processes52
53 A5 Green Car Initiative CARS 21 R&D on vehicle propulsion technology and alternative fuelsGreen eMotionEuropean Commission and 42 partners from industry, utilities, OEMs, cities, universities and research institutions€ 24.2 million funding from EC, 17.6 million from partnersDeveloping interoperability standards for the EUCARS 21Competitive Automotive Regulatory System for the 21st CenturyMay trigger higher uptake of EVs by 2050ITS (Intelligent Transport Systems) Action PlanCIVITASBenefits of networking (local authorities)Source:European Commission, 2001: White Paper
54 White Paper on Future Transport Variety of suggestions for policies concerning the transport sectorFocus on cities as the implementing locationUser pays principleInternalizing local externalities through charging for the use of infrastructureReducing conventional ICEVs’ share of fleet by 50% until 2030Abolition of conventional ICEVs’ in cities by 2050Widely available information on all modes of transportPolicies for reducing GHG-emissionsPolluter pays principleVehicle taxation based on CO2-emissions and energy efficiencyEnergy taxationEmission trading (Cap & trade)European Commission, 2011: White Paper. Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system.European Commission, 2011: Impact Assessment.European Commission, 2011: Commission Staff Working Document.
55 RE & Grids Links between EVs & RES-E -Policy A5RE & Grids Links between EVs & RES-E -PolicyRenewable Energy DirectiveTarget-share of RE in transport can be achieved via biofuels and RES-EElectricity Renewable Portfolio StandardsEVs increase demand → absolute deployment of RES-E increasesEU Emission Trading System (ETS)EVs shift transport’s emissions into the ETSEmission cap constrains additional production to RES-E
56 EV Policies influencing EV/RES deployment A5EV Policies influencing EV/RES deploymentDenmarkTotal registration tax exemption for EVs until end 2015.TSO planning include EVs as an important way to increase the percent of wind energy in the grid in the future.SwedenSubsidies from the state when purchasing an "Environmental car", defined according to specified performance criteria, including use of biofuels and energy efficiency. (Change of regulation in 2011 because this subsidy has been very expensive to the state)Many years of subsidising biofuels (E85) have resulted in a mature supply infrastructureMany city and regional busses drive on Biogas in Southern Sweden and Goteborg. This is funded by the region.Development of a gas infrastructure is given high priority.NorwayTax subsidy when buying a "Miljøbil" (Environmental car, according to specified performance criteria) as company car.Large registration tax reductions for EVsFinlandThe tax subsidy for commuting is related to CO2 emissions and availability of public transportConsiderations of total tax exemption for EV demonstration projects
57 Investment in EV implementation $ 150 billion investment in energy technologies (until 2020)$ 2 billion investment of the development of battery technologies and components$ 400 million funding for pilot projects$ 25 billion credits for updating OEMs‘ production facilitiesTax exemptions for EV purchase
58 No clear roadmap for charging infrastructure in China Charging infrastructure (slow & fast charging, battery swapping)All the three are being demonstrated in pilot cities.Battery swapping and slow charging are preferred by grid companies.No governmental preferences.Both grid companies are working on demonstration projects of swapping stations.Better Place is cooperating with Chinese battery and EV companies for developing a swappable battery and a special EV model.Battery swapping might be only implemented for certain applicationsHas been implemented for busesMight be viable for taxi fleetsStandardizationNational standards of charging and swapping are still under investigation.Several pilot cities have already unveiled their own.
59 Policy framework to support EV development EV Development Strategy“Automotive Industry Restructuring and Revitalization Plan”released by the State Council, March 2009R&DPilot & demonstrationsFiscalMarket regulationStandards863 Program: Key Projects for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles (MOST, 2006)“1000 Vehicles in 10 cities” Promotion Campaign (MOST, 2009)A list of 25 pilot cities could receive subsidy on NEVs (MOST, 200X)Subsidy on additional 6 pilot cities (MOST, 200X)Subsidy for Private New Energy Vehicle Consumers (MOF, 2010)Pilot Project on More Efficient and New Energy Vehicles Used for Public Services (MOF, 2010)Implementation Measures on how subsidy will be given to private EV users;Recommended Types of Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Demonstration Projects for Promotion Application (MOF, 2008)Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Promotion Demonstration Financial Assistance Fund Management Provisional Measures (MOF, 2009)Admittance Management Rules for New Energy Auto Manufacturing Companies and Products (MIIT, 2009)Various national standards for controls, indicators and signs, and test methods for EVVarious standards for power charging stations and grid requirementsMOF: Chinese Ministry of FinanceMOST: Chinese Ministry of Science and TechnologyMIIT: Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
60 The future of EV in China Large scale filtration of HEVSales of full hybrid to exceed 3 million vehiclesEstablish commercialization of BEV and PHEVBEV and PHEV ownership to reach 5million, about 5% of the total vehicle ownershipMedium and heavy hybrid EV accounts for 50% of total passenger car sales“Development Plan for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles”, MIIT (Draft)Establish large scale commercialization of BEVBEV and PHEV ownership to reach 500,000Medium and heavy hybrid EV to reach 1million“Development Plan for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles”, MIIT (Draft)Establish 500,000 annual production capacity for BEV, HEV, FCEV and PHEV“Automotive Industry Restructuring and Revitalization Plan”, State CouncilMIIT: Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
61 Broad range of EV producers on the Nordic market in 2011-2012 The EV models available in the Nordic countries are almost the same as in the rest of the western world. Examples shown below. Source: Dansk Elbilsalliance. :Source: Nordic car importers associationsProducerModelAFUTURE EVIdentical with Nissan QashqaiCitroëne.g. C1 and CzeroCityElDanish one-person vehicle with many years on the Danish marketGreenBuddyBuddy Plus and BuddyCabTeslaTesla S and Tesla RoasterThinkThink City. Norwegian carBMWMini EBYDE6ChevroletVoltMercedes-BenzSmart forTwo EDMitsubishii-mievVolvoEV30NissanReneaultNissan LEAF, Renault Fluence61
62 Global and US vehicle sales 2007200820092010201120152020HEV/ PHEV515,397515,135728,215934,6441,237,1672,781,6433,883,447Total PV Sales48,989,46245,808,91943865,49444,708,78347,621,68861,198,06470,905,762HEV/ PHEV %1.1%1.7%2.1%2.6%4.5%5.5%US2007200820092010201120152020HEV/ PHEV353,152316,251291,659291,116482,6751,466,0701,672,739Total PV Sales16,288,02913,408,29010,570,29411,619,66713,190,23616,400,06917,426,043HEV/ PHEV %2.2%2.4%2.8%2.5%3.7%8.9%9.6%PV = Passenger VehicleSource: J.D. Power and Associates, Drive Green 2020: More Hope Than Reality?, 2010.Available Models from 2010 onwards:By far the most popular at this point are the Chevrolet Volt PHEV and the Nissan Leaf BEV. Predicted production figures for the Volt were at 10,000 for 2011, but due to demand these were increased to 15,000 and again to 25,000. Production is expected to reach capacity in 2012 at 60,000 units, with further production expansion planned.The Leaf received 20,000 pre-orders in 2010, after which Nissan stopped taking orders. These orders are expected to be fulfilled by September Nissan announced in early March 2011 that it would double production at its Japanese plant in order to meet these orders. Although production was halted temporarily in late March 2011 due to the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, Nissan has indicated that it will not affect it’s ability to meet orders.The USA accounted for 40% of global sales of (P)HEVs in 2009BEV sales expected to be in the low thousands in 2010.
63 Battery electric vehicles available in the USA and Canada 1Available date.NameOriginTypeUSA1CAN1RangeTop speedPrice $USBYD e6ChinaCrossover2010n/a250 miles100 mph$40,000Coda EVUSA4-door2011120 miles80 mphFord Focus EV (Magna)tba100 milesFord Transit ConnectUS/CanVan80 miles75 mphMitsubishi i-MievJapan5-door2012130 km/h$47,500Nissan Leaf90 mph$30,000Toyota Scion IQ Electric3-door70 mphSmart EDGermany72 miles60 mphTesla Roadster2-door2008244 miles125 mph$129,000Source: Electric Mobility Canada, Demonstrating Electric Vehicles in Canada, 2010.
64 Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles available in the USA and Canada 1Available date.NameOriginTypeUSA1CAN1EV RangeFuel econ.Top speedPrice $USBright IDEAUSAVan2013n/a40 miles40 mpg100 mphChevrolet Volt5-door20102011320 mpg$32,500Fisker Karma4-door50 miles100 mpg125 mph$80,000Toyota Prius Plug-inJapan201213 miles50 mpg60 mph$40,000Source: Electric Mobility Canada, Demonstrating Electric Vehicles in Canada, 2010.
65 Transport sector Best known domestic models in China Year LaunchedPrice (k ¥)Mileage (km)Subsidy (k ¥)Chery M1,201070-100about 60BYD e6about 20060Hafei Saibao200180Zotye LeriounknownLifan 620EV100150Geely EK-2about 15040Changan Benben Mini201145BAW C30Haima Freemaabout 160160SAIC Roewe2012135about 50
66 Standardization is in progress Standardization differences are currently being addressedStandards are already similar,differences should be resolved by 2012Harmonization with Europe may be the next step to considerFederal governments can provide nation-wide public information campaigns on benefits of EVs and RES-EOn financial support available to consumers (rebates, subsidies, fiscal incentives, etc.)On improved performance of modern EV’s (lower costs, higher driving range, faster charging times, reliability in cold weather)On environmental benefitsOn cost benefits (as petrol prices increase)
67 Differences in vehicle standards CMVSS #TitleDetails101Location and identification of controls and displayMetric units required in Canada108Lighting system and retroflective devicesDaytime running lights required in Canada114ImmobilizerCanadian standards require immobilizers to shut down vehicle if ignition is bypassed.201Occupant protectionStricter standards were adopted in USA in 1998 that were not updated in Canada205Glazing materialsStricter standards were adopted in USA in 1996 that were not updated in Canada208Frontal impact occupant protection standardsSeatbelt requirements not harmonized between USA and Canada214Side door strengthCanadian standards do not include dynamic test requirements215BumpersDifferent bumper test requirements between USA and Canada.
68 Standards A7 General Safety Design GB/T Terminology of electric vehiclesSafetyGB/T EV safety specificationPart I: On-board energy storagePart II: Functional safety means and protection against failuresPart III: Protection of persons against electric hazardsGB/T HEV safety specificationDesignGB/T EV- engineering approval evaluation programGB/T HEV power approval evaluation programGB/T General specification of the electrical machines and controllers for EV
69 Standards A7 Test Charging GB/T 18385 EV power performance test method GB/T HEV power performance test methodGB/T EV reference energy consumption and range-test proceduresGB/T Test methods for energy consumption of light-duty HEVGB/T Test methods for energy consumption of heavy-duty HEVGB/T Measurement methods for emissions from light-duty HEVGB/T Test procedures of the electrical machines and controllers for EVChargingElectric Energy Metering for Electric Vehicle AC Charging Spot (coming)Electric vehicle conductive charging connections (coming)
70 Current RES-E policies strengthened with EVs Background information from RETRANSCurrent RES-E policies strengthened with EVsRES-E target as % of electricity demandDirect incentiveAbsolute target value increases with electricity consumption from EVsFeed-in tariffs or premiumsIndirect IncentivePreferential charging improves profitabilityMore RES-E supported with same subsidy budgetCertificate systemsEnabling roleTransparency for EV ownersCap and trade systemsIncreased CO2-price helps RES-E and other low-carbon electricity
71 RE & Grids, Current status & 2020 Scenarios HydroWasteBiomassDenmarkCO2 reduction: 30% from 2005 to 2020:RE : 30% in 2020 (from 17% in 2005)RE-electricity: 29% in 2020 (from 8,7% in 1997)SwedenCO2 reduction: 17% from 2005 to 2020:RE : 49% in 2020 (from 40% in 2005)RE-electricity: 60% in 2020 (from 49% in 1997)NorwayCO2 neutral from 2050CO2 reduction: 30% from 1990 to 2020RE-electricity: 90% in 2010FinlandCO2 reduction: 0% from 2005 to 2020:RE : 38% i 2020 (from % in 2005)RE-electricity: 31,5% i 2020 (from 24,7% in 1997)OilNat. GasCoalSource: "Kortlægning af strategier for lavenergibyggeri i EU Lande”, COWI 2011, Report for the Danish Government. (Danish), Danish Commission on Climate Change 2010
72 A8Electricity generation by source and region.Source: Nordregio 2010.
73 Nordic Grid interconnectors, a dynamic area New interconnectors are still being builtAround half of the proposed connections in 2004, shown below are now implemented.Source: "Nordel, Prioriterede snit", 2004
74 Expected development of RES in electricity in the Nordic countries A8Expected development of RES in electricity in the Nordic countriesIn Iceland electricity is based 100% on RES.Source: COWI and Nordic energy Research, 2011
75 A8 Production based incentives Feed-in tariff (FIT) programs are not common in US and Canada. To date, only the Province of Ontario has a FIT program.Net metering and standard offer programs most common in US and Canada, but by no means widespread.34 of 50 US States offer production incentives (mostly net metering).Several federal, fiscal/ financial incentives in US and CanadaAccelerated depreciationProduction incentivesTax credits, grants, loansIncentives for indigenous communities employing RE
76 Fiscal and financial incentives more popular in the US Some Canadian provinces provide financial incentives (other than production incentives)Note that in many cases it is technically the utility that is administering the incentiveFiscal and/ or Financial incentives on state-level in the USFinancialDark colored states provide fiscal incentives, light colored states provide financial incentives. Michigan and Colorado provide both types.Source: US Department of Energy, Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency,Fiscal
77 RE & Grids Federal programs in the United States: Renewable Energy Production Incentive (REPI): 1.5 cents/kWh (1993 dollars indexed for inflation) for first 10 years of operation, subject to availability of annual federal appropriations to the program.Modified Accelerated Cost-Recovery System (MACRS): Renewable energy systems classified as 5-year properties for accelerated depreciation. This also included a 50% first-year bonus depreciation in 2008 – 2011 (the bonus depreciation is renewed annually).Residential Energy Conservation Subsidy Exclusion: subsidies for residential energy conservation measures (including renewable energy systems) are non-taxable at the federal level.Business Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC): 30% for solar, fuel cells and small wind and 10% for geothermal, microturbines and CHP.Renewable Electricity Production tax credit (PTC): 2.2 cents/kWh for solar, geothermal and biomass, 1.1 cents/kWh for other RETs (not solar).Source: US Department of Energy, Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency,
78 RE & Grids Federal programs in the United States: Tribal Energy Program: Financial and technical assistance, education and training for indiginous tribes seeking to develop renewable energy resources. Program funding awarded through competitive process.Renewable Energy Grants (REG): applicable to most RETs, however a developer may choose to use either the REG or the ITC and PTC (a developer may not take advantage of all three programs).High Energy Cost Grant Program: Grants for EE and RET projects in rural communities where average energy costs are at least 275% over the national average. Grants can range from $75,000 - $5 million and can also be applied to transmission and distribution infrastructure.Qualified Energy Conservation Bonds (QECB): State, local and tribal governments may issue bonds to finance RE projects. The bond interest is paid in the form of federal tax credits.Federal Loan Guarantee: provides loan guarantees for projects that "avoid, reduce or sequester air pollutants or anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases; and employ new or significantly improved technologies as compared to commercial technologies in service in the United States at the time the guarantee is issued.“Residential Renewable Energy Tax Credit: 30% tax credit for residential solar, geothermal, fuel cell and small wind installations .Source: US Department of Energy, Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency,
79 RE & Grids Federal programs in Canada: Accelerated Capital Cost Allowance for Efficient and Renewable Energy Generation: accelerated captial depreciation (30% annually on declining balance) for electricity or heat generation from efficient and renewable sources.Canadian Renewable and Conservation Expenses: expenses incurred for the development of RE projects may be fully deducted or financed via flow-through shares.EcoAction Community Funding Program: up to $100,000 for financial support of up to 50% of the total costs for a project that has a positive impact on a community (including RE projects).Technology Early Action Measures (TEAM): Incremental financing for projects that demonstrate innovation in advanced end-use efficiency, biotechnology, decentralized energy production, cleaner fossil fuels and the hydrogen economy.EcoENERGY for Aboriginal and Northern Communities Program: up to $250,000 for RE projects in Aboriginal and northern communities that rely on diesel generators for power.Source: Natural Resources Canada, Directory of Energy Efficiency and Alternative Energy Programs in Canada,
80 Renewable Portfolio Shares in the USA / May 2011ME: 30% x 2000New RE: 10% x 2017WA: 15% x 2020*VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales x 2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP x 2017MN: 25% x 2025(Xcel: 30% x 2020)MT: 15% x 2015NH: 23.8% x 2025OR: 25% x 2025 (large utilities)*5% - 10% x 2025 (smaller utilities)ND: 10% x 2015MI: 10% & 1,100 MW x 2015*MA: 22.1% x 2020 New RE: 15% x 2020 (+1% annually thereafter)SD: 10% x 2015WI: Varies by utility; 10% x 2015 statewideRI: 16% x 2020NY: 29% x 2015NV: 25% x 2025*CT: 23% x 2020IA: 105 MWOH: 25% x 2025†CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs)10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*PA: ~18% x 2021†IL: 25% x 2025WV: 25% x 2025*†NJ: 20.38% RE x 2021+ 5,316 GWh solar x 2026CA: 33% x 2020UT: 20% by 2025*KS: 20% x 2020VA: 15% x 2025*MO: 15% x 2021MD: 20% x 2022AZ: 15% x 2025OK: 15% x 2015NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs)10% x 2018 (co-ops & munis)DE: 25% x 2026*NM: 20% x 2020 (IOUs)10% x 2020 (co-ops)DCDC: 20% x 2020TX: 5,880 MW x 2015PR: 20% x 2035HI: 40% x 203029 states + DC and PR have an RPS(7 states have goals)Renewable portfolio standardMinimum solar or customer-sited requirement*Renewable portfolio goalExtra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables†Solar water heating eligibleIncludes non-renewable alternative resources
81 Increase of Wind Energy especially in Northern Europe Installed today2009Expected capacityby 2020Denmark3 273 MW9,0 TWh5 635 MW14,0 TWhSweden1 448 MW2,5 TWh4 550 MW12,5 TWhFinland147 MW0,3 TWh2 500 MW6,0 TWhNorway431 MW1,0 TWh5 000 MW12,0 TWhTotal5 300 MW13 TWhMW44,5 TWhSource:European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E): Impact of increased amounts of Renewable Energy in Nordic power system operationTripling of capacity within 10 yearsIncrease especially off-shore:High installed power, more reliable than on-shore, higher concomitance
82 North American Electricity of the future: Natural Gas, Wind and Solar Expected development of Electricity-MixShare of gas increasing Share of coal decreasingWind (and solar) increasingNuclearSlight increase (US)Decrease (Canada)Potential for large-scale growth (installed capacity)WindSolar PVHydroHowever, there is increasing resistance to new large hydro projects in Canada.Expected Electricity Mix 2035Figure shows expected electricity mix for 2035 for the USA. Numbers are in GWh. Source:Black & Veatch, What will be the North American energy industry’s “new normal”.
83 RE & Grids Current status & 2020 Scenarios 2020 Target of 15% RE in Energy mix Target value for 2015: 11.4% (2010: 8.59%)Installed capacity of solar would be 20 GWInstalled capacity of wind would be 150 GWInstalled capacity of hydro would be 380 GWInstalled capacity of nuclear would be 86 GWTarget for carbon intensity decrease by 16% from 2011 to 2015Development of Extra High Voltage transmissionLong distance transmission especially for RES-E connectionSource: Zhang Guobao, 8/2010
84 Installed capacity and forecast of wind capacity growth Source:
85 RE & Grids Value of regulation Average Annual Market Clearing Price ($/ MWh)200420052006PJM42.7549.7332.69RTO-NE28.9230.2224.02NY ISO22.5939.2151.26ERCOT22.6638.07n/aCA ISO29.0036.04Kempton, W., Vehicle to Grid Power,
86 RE & Grids Reserve power revenue potential Kempton, W., Vehicle to Grid Power,
87 Foresight Analysis –Nordic Strategies for Renewable Transport Source: Nordic Council of Ministers
88 EVs can be accommodated in Canadian grids In Canada, by 2018 normal load growth will grow by 17% relative to 2006 (i.e. 99 TWh).In order to accommodate 500,000 BEV’s (≤1%) on the road in 2018, this would require an additional 1.5 TWh, i.e. only 0.2% of normal projected demand. This could be supplied by:190 MW biomass plant at 90% capacity230 MW hydro installation at 75% capacity490 MW wind turbine installation at 35% capacityCurrent peak load in Canada is about 100 GW. If 500,000 BEV’s were charging at the same time, this would represent a total additional load of 1.5 GW (1.5% of existing max peak load).Source: CANMET Energy, Electric Vehicle Technology Roadmap for Canada, 2009.
89 High penetrations of EVs lead to difficulties in Chinese grids For Beijing, 100% EV-commuting could not be sustainedIf an average commuter EV uses 21 kWh/100 km, and runs 70 km/day, then this EV requires 14.7 kWh/day of power.The current vehicle population of 5 million would require 73.5 GWh per day.With GWh available between 10 p.m. and 9 a.m. the next day, a fully electric fleet could not be charged fully during the night.70 km/day for commuter cars in urban areas in China is a generally accepted value used in many estimations.Internal research is from a grid research institute, not to be released to the public, so we have to accept this value as an assumption.89
90 Phase 1 – Until 2015 IDEAL SCENARIO – Regulation-driven Adoption of GHG reduction targetsImplementation of RES-E and EV deployment targets & support policies (FITs, purchase rebates, tax incentives)Grid improvements to support RET and EV targets and incentivesIncreased unbundling of electricity markets (where applicable) to allow for greater grid flexibilityGaining experienceMore pilot projects on a larger scaleEV’s will not be on the road in significant numbersadvanced V2G (vehicle to grid) services are not needed yet, but pilot/demonstration projects should be implementedIndustry produces AND MARKETS EV’s in larger numbersbringing down costs due to learning effectsmeeting demandVehicle and electrical standards in practice – make any necessary modifications.Public information campaign about the benefits of RETs and EV’s
91 Phase 2 – From 2015 onwards IDEAL SCENARIO – Regulation-driven Sufficient EV’s on the market and on the road to implement local-scale V2G networksNew projects or extensions of pilot projectsImportant to prevent coal-based EV chargingContinued RET deployment and V2G expansion will require continued upgrades to the grid.A significant percentage of grid electricity is from renewable sources.Consumer demand will drive future deployment.
92 Phase 1 – Until 2015 FEASIBLE SCENARIO – Market-driven Implementation of some RET and EV support policies (FITs, purchase rebates, tax incentives) – mostly on a local scale.Early-adopter consumer demand for EV’s drives increased productionThis is aided by increasingly strict national and local vehicle fuel efficiency standardsIncreased production of EV’s brings down costs, increasing demand furtherIncrease in EV population requires electricity grid improvements and reinforcements and charging infrastructure developmentImplementation of RET and EV deployment targets only in some local jurisdictionsPilot projects driven by local initiatives, government-industry-university partnershipsPublic information campaign about the benefits of RETs and EV’s (by government and industry)
93 Phase 2 – From 2015 onwards FEASIBLE SCENARIO – Market-driven EV purchases slowly increase, driven by consumer demand and fuel efficiency standardsIncreased demand continues grid and infrastructure improvementsEntrepreneurs will call for further unbundling of electricity market to allow for easier market penetrationMore V2G pilot projectsEventually, consumer demand for:V2G implementationFIT programs
94 EU Two-Phase approach A12 Policy options for future transport Phase 1 – Until 2016 Restructuring charges and taxesMotor fuel taxation bound to energy and CO2Mandatory infrastructure charge for heavy-duty vehiclesEvaluate and develop guidelines for car road charging schemesInternalize external costsLinking vehicle taxation to environmental performanceReview of VAT on passenger transport? Review of company car taxation?Phase 2 – From 2016 onwardsFull and mandatory internalization of external costsNoise, local pollution, congestion, wear & tearMarket based measures for furthering GHG emissions reductionsSources:European Commission, 2011: Comission Staff Working Document – Accompanying the White Paper
95 Feasibility of policy options Phase 1 – Until 2015 Gaining experienceLearning effects enable manufacturers to increase EV/ battery quality and decrease cost.Preference among slow charging, fast charging and battery swapping.StandardizationRaise market recognition of EVEnhance acceptance of EV by developing pilot programs.Develop low-speed low-cost EV as compensation for ICEVs to reach mass use.Infrastructure construction and equipment R&DBuild major RES-E bases, so that RES-E account for 25% of all installed capacity. (state grid)Increase long-distance transmission capability and efficiency.Smart meter, spinning reserve and demand-side management
96 Feasibility of policy options Phase 2 – From 2015 onwards RES-E continue to increase in the gridReach over 28% of all installed capacityAll generated electricity will be connected to girdRES-E could be transmitted from remote energy centers to demand centersMass production of mature EV modelsIneligible models are eliminated from the market after pilotingQuality of battery improve rapidly, so that performance of EV is compatible to fossil fuel carsGood coverage of infrastructureCharging/swapping stations cover all large-medium sized cities.Advanced V2G services should be in place
97 Road Infrastructure is densest in North America 240,000 km highways = 0,7 km per 1000 people4 million km other roads = 12 km per 1000 peopleEuropekm highway = 0,14 km per 1000 people1,8 million km other roads = 3,7 km per 1000 peopleLess dense highway systems in Eastern European CountriesChinakm highway = 0,055 km per 1000 people4 million km other roads = 2,97 km per 1000 peopleHighway network concentrates on economically important Eastern Chinese regionsSources:Statistics Canada: North American Transportation HighlightsEurostatChinaautoweb.com
98 THANK YOU! For additional information on RETD Online: www.iea-retd.org Contact:98