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UNSOC THE PLANNING PROCESS - with case studies UNSOC.

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Presentation on theme: "UNSOC THE PLANNING PROCESS - with case studies UNSOC."— Presentation transcript:

1

2 UNSOC

3 THE PLANNING PROCESS - with case studies UNSOC

4 Learning Objectives  To understand the main steps in the Planning Process. UNSOC  To contribute to the work with each step in the Planning Process.

5 Phases and Outputs INITIATIONORIENTATION CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PLAN DEVELOPMENT PLAN REVIEW CONDUCT MISSION ANALYSIS MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING CO’S PLANNING GUIDANCE RECEIVE ORDER GATHER INFO STAFF ANALYSIS DEVELOP COAs COA DECISION BRIEFING DEVELOP CONOPS CONOPS DEVELOP CO-ORDINATE SEEK APROVAL ISSUE PLAN OPLAN DISTRIBUTED (MAIN BODY + ANNEXES) PLAN REVIEW PLAN EVAL UPDATED OPLAN/ OPORD OUTPUT UNSOC

6 Planning Process - Staff Involvement Initiation Orientation Concept Development Plan Development Plan Review CO COS CMPO MIO COO CLO CMC GATHER INFO MISSION ANALYSIS MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING STAFF ANALYSIS FWF COA DEVELOP. OWN COA DEVELOP. COA DECISION BRIEFING WRITE OPLAN/OPORD COA COMPARISON REVIEW PLAN UNSOC

7 THE PLANNING CYCLE Mission OPLAN/ OPORD Control - new mission Estimates Mission analysis COA Decision Briefing Mission Analysis Briefing ORIENTATION PHASE CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN REVIEW PHASE INITIATION PHASE UNSOC

8 THE PLANNING CYCLE Mission OPLAN/ OPORD Control - new mission Estimates Mission analysis COA Decision Briefing Mission Analysis Briefing ORIENTATION PHASE CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN REVIEW PHASE INITIATION PHASE This part of the Planning Process is only for analysis - not planning UNSOC

9 THE PLANNING CYCLE Mission OPLAN/ OPORD Control - new mission Estimates Mission analysis COA Decision Briefing Mission Analysis Briefing ORIENTATION PHASE CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN REVIEW PHASE INITIATION PHASE This part of the Planning Process is only for planning UNSOC

10 THE PLANNING CYCLE Mission OPLAN/ OPORD Control - new mission Estimates Mission analysis COA Decision Briefing Mission Analysis Briefing ORIENTATION PHASE CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN REVIEW PHASE INITIATION PHASE This part of the Planning Process is only for documentation of the decision taken by the commander UNSOC

11 THE PLANNING CYCLE Mission OPLAN/ OPORD Control - new mission Estimates Mission analysis COA Decision Briefing Mission Analysis Briefing ORIENTATION PHASE CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN REVIEW PHASE INITIATION PHASE This part of the Planning Process is only for controlling. Demands for changes will result in a new planning process - starts from the beginning!!!!! UNSOC

12 THE PLANNING CYCLE Mission OPLAN/ OPORD Control - new mission Estimates Mission analysis COA Decision Briefing Mission Analysis Briefing ORIENTATION PHASE CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN REVIEW PHASE INITIATION PHASE Estimates In a complicated mission there can be many staff meetings - in a simple task only few - but you will always have MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING COA DECISION BRIEFING UNSOC

13 Mission Analysis The aim of the mission analysis is to identify the boundaries of the problem. This includes: UNSOC  interpretation and definition of the given order  conditions that may affect the mission  review of own and opposing forces to determine strengths and weaknesses.

14 MISSION ANALYSIS STEPS Step 1. Analyse the higher commander’s order. Step 2. Conduct Initial Intelligence Preparation (Situation overview). Step 3. Analyse Higher Commander’s Intent, Mission, Objectives and Desired End State. Step 4. Identify Planning Limitations. Step 5. Identify Assumptions. Step 6.Identify critical Facts Step 7. Strengths and Weaknesses (both opposing and own forces). Step 8. Centres of Gravity (COG)/Decisive Points Step 9. Identify/determine Tasks (assigned, implied and essential) Step 10. Determine Own Objectives, Desired End State and Criteria for Success Step 11. Write the restated mission (WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE AND WHY). Step 12. Conduct a mission analysis briefing Step 13. Approve the restated mission. Step 14. Develop the commander's initial intent. Step 15. Issue the commander's guidance. Step 16. Issue a warning order. Step 17. Review facts and assumptions. MISSION ANALYSIS: For a complex mission it might be a longer procedure - For a simple mission we might be doing this in minutes! MISSION ANALYSIS: For a complex mission it might be a longer procedure - For a simple mission we might be doing this in minutes! UNSOC This can also be done in a staff meeting - COS Mission Analysis - and is normally done by the COS - in co-op with branch Heads.

15 MISSION ANALYSIS Higher Commander´s Plan  Commander´s Intent: Two Levels Up  Mission:  Tasks: Specified, Implied, Essential  Constraints & Restraints  Risk  Available Forces  Area Of Operations / Interest  Concept Of Operation  Timeline STEP 1/3

16 INITIAL INFORMATION PREPARATION OF THE AOR Systematic and Continuous Process Defines the Area of Responsibility (AOR) & Initial Collection Efforts Analysis & Estimates Threat & Effects of the AOR Assists the Staff to focus the Planning; -Development of COAs, collection of info, etc. Produces specific Products; -Situation Template KITTENSEE UBUNGSDORF OBERSCHWEND ALBERTSHOF RAVERSDORF ENSLWANG CMTC STEP 2

17 Planning Limitations restraintsconstraints Exist as restraints, constraints and pre-conditions for success.  Restraints  Restraints limit what may be done - must not do!  Constraintsmust  Constraints impose obligations that must be met.  Pre-conditions  Pre-conditions stated by CO as essential for mission success. STEP 4

18 MISSION ANALYSIS Assumptions Assumptions state essential conditions which must exist if a specific plan is to succeed -- take the place of facts -- must be valid and necessary -- regularly validate assumptions. Examples from SFOR / KFOR: Population generally support the implementation Population generally support the implementation of the Peace Agreement and the presence of of the Peace Agreement and the presence of Peace Troops in AOR. Peace Troops in AOR. TUZLA KLADANJ ZVORNIK DOBOJ UGLJEVIC BRCKO 2nd BDE 1st BDE TOMICI ODZAK STEP 5

19 Facts and Assumptions Three-step thinking: 1. Facts or Assumptions (Critical?) 2. Consequences 3. Conclusions “What does it mean to me??” “What do I need to do??” UNSOC STEP 6

20 Strengths and Weakness 1.Identify both opposing and own forces 2. Conclusions “What does it mean to me??” UNSOC STEP 7

21 Centre of Gravity (COG)  “the Point against which all energies should be directed”. STEP 8  Exist at strategic, operational and tactical levels.  “the Hub of all power and movement on which everything depends”.

22 Centre of Gravity (COG) (Continued) COG freedom ofaction physical strengthwill to fight  The COG is that characteristic, capability, locality, from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight. inevitable  If attacked, destroyed, neutralised or eliminated, will lead to inevitable defeat or wish for peace. STEP 8

23 Centre of Gravity (COG) (Continued) FWF “Exploit FWF COG, Own while protecting Own COG” STEP 8

24 Decisive Points (DPs) keys  DPs are keys to getting at the COGs.  May exist in time, space or in the information environment.  Geographical  Geographical in nature, but can be linked to attainment of capabilitiescombat functions specific capabilities or to elements of combat functions STEP 8

25 Decisive Points (DPs) (Continued)  Control of DPs provides CO with possibility to greatly influence the outcome of an action.  Proper action at DPs allows the CO to gain initiative, retain freedom of operational manoeuvre and maintain momentum. STEP 8

26 An Example Centre of Gravity (COG) An Example Operational:  Bogaland Kasurian Stability and Independency from VallaStability and Independency from Valla  Bogaland Midian Stability in whole BogalandStability in whole Bogaland  UNMIB Implementation of UN MandateImplementation of UN Mandate STEP 8

27 Examples) Decisive Points DPs ( Examples)  Prepare a Contingency Plan for Ops within Enclave.  Negotiations with Parties.  Liaison with UN Agencies in AOR.  Arms embargo operations.  Maintain Freedom of movement (FOM).  Support of International Organisations/ NGO´s.  Information Operations.  Maintain the security in the whole AOR and in the ZOS.  Co-ordinate C2, Comms, liaison, and operational requirements.. STEP 8

28 TASKS S TASKS Specified/Implied/Essential  Essential necessary  Essential tasks could consist of both specified and implied tasks, are necessary for mission accomplishment. STEP 9  Specified  Specified tasks are stated in higher CO´s order.  Implied  Implied tasks are those not mentioned in the order, but are identified when analysing the order.

29 Desired End State political and military  A descriptive statement of the political and military conditions conditions that indicate mission completion.  Likely to be general in nature, not to limit the CO´s method of achieving the mission. STEP 10

30 Criteria for Success generalbroad  Because the End State is general or broad, it may be hard to determine mission success. criteria to determine  Measurable criteria to determine achievement of End State. STEP 10

31 Restated Mission Force Commander´s Order UNMIB Order Mission statement should answer the questions: WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE AND WHY 2.Mission 3.Execution a. Concept of Operations (1) Commander´s Intent (2) Scheme of Manoeuvre b. Tasks to Manoeuvre units (UNMIB) (UNMIB) 2.Mission 3.Execution a. Concept of Operations (1) Commander´s Intent (2) Scheme of Manoeuvre b. Tasks to Manoeuvre units STEP 11

32 Mission Statement Mission Statement ( Example) “UNMIB will NLT D+2 until further notice conduct Peace Support Operations in assigned AOR in Bogaland. UNMIB will establish and maintain a Zone of Separation and effectively separate the Parties´ Forces. Operations will be executed in co-operation with other civilian organisations, together with local authorities in order to establish and maintain a safe and secure environment for local population and humanitarian agencies.” WHO WHEN WHAT WHERE WHY STEP 11

33 MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING WHOWHAT COSPurpose and Agenda, Mission. COOGeneral situation, HQ or higher Commanders Intent, Concept of Operation, Centers of Gravity, Desired End-state. MIOInitial Information's Preparation. Terrain/Weather Analysis, Threat Evaluation. COOSpecified, Implied, Essential Tasks. Facts, Assumptions, Limitations. Conclusions: Shortfalls/Critical obstacles/Recommendations. CMPOPersonnel Estimate. Conclusions: Shortfalls/Critical obstacles/Recommendations. CLOLogistics Estimate. Conclusions: Shortfalls/Critical obstacles/Recommendations. CMCOORDCivil Military Affairs Estimate. Conclusions: Shortfalls/Critical obstacles/Recommendations. COMMSCOMMS Estimate Conclusions: Shortfalls/Critical obstacles/Recommendations. COSRequest Commander´s Guidance. STEP 12

34  Commander PERSONALLY Prepares his Intent  Must be UNDERSTOOD Two Levels Down Clear, Concise Statement of SUCCESS CRITERIA with respect to the SITUATION, the TERRAIN and to the DESIRED ENDSTATE.Clear, Concise Statement of the SUCCESS CRITERIA with respect to the SITUATION, the TERRAIN and to the DESIRED ENDSTATE. KEY TASKS that are the basis for initiative of Subordinates.KEY TASKS that are the basis for initiative of Subordinates. BROADER PURPOSE beyond the MISSION.BROADER PURPOSE beyond the MISSION. COMMANDER'S INITIAL INTENT STEP 14

35 0 KM5 KM Valla Teda BLUEPOCKET BLUETOWN MAIN ROAD Prepare to receive, contain, protect and provide basic needs to refugees crossing the border from TEDA to VALLA in order to hand these refugees over to UNHCR as soon as possible. On request UNMIB will support UNHCR to set up protected camps or other accommodations in case of a greater numbers of refugees crossing in to VALLA. The task has been given to the Military Component x x

36 First task: Prepare the mission analysis briefing for First Staff Conference UNSOC

37 Case Study No 1: Mission Analysis Mission Analysis Briefing. Case Study No 1: Conduct the Mission Analysis and prepare for the Mission Analysis Briefing. UNSOC

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39 “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 1 Mission Analysis Briefing (Hand-out) UNSOC

40 PfPSOC THE PLANNING CYCLE Mission OPLAN/ OPORD Control - new mission Estimates Mission analysis COA Decision Briefing Mission Analysis Briefing ORIENTATION PHASE CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN REVIEW PHASE INITIATION PHASE We will now focus on the next part of the planning process

41 Phases and Outputs INITIATIONORIENTATION CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PLAN DEVELOPMENT PLAN REVIEW CONDUCT MISSION ANALYSIS MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING CO’S PLANNING GUIDANCE RECEIVE ORDER GATHER INFO STAFF ANALYSIS DEVELOP COAs COA DECISION BRIEFING DEVELOP CONOPS CONOPS DEVELOP CO-ORDINATE SEEK APROVAL ISSUE PLAN OPLAN DISTRIBUTED (MAIN BODY + ANNEXES) PLAN REVIEW PLAN EVAL UPDATED OPLAN/ OPORD OUTPUT UNSOC

42 Concept Development CONOPS Own COA The final product of this planning phase is a CONOPS based on a single Own COA, chosen by the Commander. Four steps are carried out during this phase: –Staff Analysis –Development of COAs (opposing forces and own) –Decision Briefing –CONOPS Development UNSOC

43 Staff Analysis examineidentifyTo examine factors and deductions and to identify assumptions relevant to the mission in order to: –Ascertain whether the mission is achievable. –Develop COA that are viable and supportable. Factors to examine are:Factors to examine are: –Overall Situation in AOR –FWF Situation & Capabilities –Own Forces Situation & Capabilities –Terrain & Weather –Command & Control KITTENSEE UBUNGSDORF OBERSCHWEND ALBERTSHOF RAVERSDORF ENSLWANG CMTCUNSOC

44 INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE AOR (Continued) Systematic and Continuous Process Defines the AOR & Initial Collection Efforts Analysis & Estimates Threat & Effects of the AOR Environment Development of COAs; The Most Likely & the Most Dangerous, with Objectives Produces specific Products; -Situation Template KITTENSEE UBUNGSDORF OBERSCHWEND ALBERTSHOF RAVERSDORF ENSLWANG CMTCUNSOC

45 Development of FWF COA´s Identify the players. (civil population, police, military, rebels) Mark their location on the map. What can they do? Develop COAs by brainstorming. Decide what COA is the Most Likely and the Most Dangerous. Describe also what objectives they have in each COA. UNSOC

46 FORMER WARRING FACTIONS Considerations: Commander Objectives? Force Structure/Order of Battle? Intelligence Capabilities? Most Likely/Dangerous COA? Critical Vulnerabilities? Constraints and Restrictions? Recent Tactical Performance? Sustainment Capability? Example : Not only Military units are players. Police, Paramilitary units, Criminal Gangs and Civilians are players as well and must be assessed too. Not only Military units are players. Police, Paramilitary units, Criminal Gangs and Civilians are players as well and must be assessed too. Situational Template Plot Unit Locations Display Likely Actions Used For Subsequent Planning UNSOC

47 TERRAIN Considerations : Area of Operation/Area of Interest? Key Terrain -- Decisive Terrain? Areas of Critical Movement Constriction? Movement Rate Estimates? Terrain Protection from Enemy Recce? Logistics Infrastructure? Area Where FWF Are Most Vulnerable? Key Terrain Obstacles Avenues of Approach Concealment and Cover Observation & Fields of Fire Terrain: Slope/Line Of Sight Elevation Vegetation Soil and Water Mobility Example : Main Supply Routes and roads in general are very important to Main Supply Routes and roads in general are very important to maintain Freedom of movement, mainly due to mine threat. maintain Freedom of movement, mainly due to mine threat. UNSOC

48 WEATHER Considerations for COAs: Natural Light and Illumination DAY BMNT Sunrise EENT Sunset Moonrise Illumination Moonset N Winds Temperature High Low Visibility? Rain? Snow? Sleet? Humidity?...Air Density? Cloud Cover/Ceiling...Fog? Example : No aviation support by helicopter during long periods due to No aviation support by helicopter during long periods due to rain seasons, low clouds and dense fog rain seasons, low clouds and dense fog UNSOC

49 Planning Process - Staff Involvement Initiation Orientation Concept Development Plan Development Plan Review CO COS CMPO MIO COO CLO CMC GATHER INFO MISSION ANALYSIS MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING STAFF ANALYSIS FWF COA DEVELOP. OWN COA DEVELOP. COA DECISION BRIEFING WRITE OPLAN/OPORD COA COMPARISON REVIEW PLAN UNSOC

50 Case Study No 2: PRODUCE THE FWF COA Most likelyMost likely Most dangerous Most dangerous Assessment of the FWF objectives. UNSOC

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52 “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 2 FWF Course Of Action UNSOC

53 0 KM5 KM Valla Teda BLUEPOCKET BLUETOWN MAIN ROAD Teda forces will start ethnic cleansing to force the main body of the population to flee the pocket and Teda COA 1 MOST DANGEROUS Teda forces will launch an operation against the FBA and this operation will result in a number of refugees fleeing the pocket COA 2 MOST LIKELY Teda forces will seal off the pocket in order to do a ”search and destroy” operation against FBA COA 3

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55 Own Course of Action Own COAAn Own COA is a possible option open to the commander that would accomplish the mission. BrainstormingEvery attempt should be made to develop as many COAs as possible (Brainstorming). It is initially stated in broad terms. When, Who, What, Where, Why and How (When, Who, What, Where, Why and How) UNSOC

56 Own Course of Action (Cont.) All Own COAs should be tested for its viability. –Suitable –Suitable (will the COA result in mission accomplishment?) –Feasible –Feasible (achievable within allocated resources?) –Acceptable –Acceptable (accepted doctrine, risk etc) –Exclusivity –Exclusivity (different comparative advantages and disadvantages?) –Completeness –Completeness (Does the COA answer the when, where, who, what, why and how questions?) UNSOC

57 OWN FORCES Considerations: Commander Objectives? Forces and Task Organisation? Critical Vulnerabilities? Constraints and Restrictions? Recent Tactical Performance? Sustainment Capability? Multinational Operations? Interoperability with Partners? Command & Control relations? Ethnic/Religious issues? Example : Almost every operation, planned or executed, involved complicated Command & Control arrangements due to multinational arrangements. SAVA RIVER TUZLA XX NORDPOL X I I I 1-77 II RUSBDE X TURKRGT RXRX X MND(N) XX MND(SE) MNB x TK TXTX MND(SW) XX MND (N) 1-41 II UNSOC

58 Course Of Action Development Who-What-Where-When-Why-How Scheme of Manoeuvre/Concept of Fire support/Tempo Task Org Reserve Main Effort Scheme of Manoeuvre Success Criteria Considerations: Considerations: Suitable -- HQ´s Guidance Feasible -- Capability Acceptable -- Cost: Casualties Resources Time Exclusivity -- Different Complete -- Mission/Intent Concept/Future UNSOC

59 Case Study No 3: PRODUCE OWN COAs UNSOC

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61 “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 3 OWN Courses Of Action UNSOC

62 0 KM5 KM VALLA TEDA BLUEPOCKET BLUETOWN MAIN ROAD GP TRANSITCAMP PRINCIPLE: Directions from the border to Gathering Points (GP), then transport from GP to Transit camp and transport from Transit Camp to UNHCR camp Responsibility for basic need and for security will start at the border and will end when we have handed over to UNHCR

63 0 KM5 KM VALLA TEDA BLUEPOCKET BLUETOWN MAIN ROAD OWN COA 1 Each Bn has the responsibility for: A. Directing the refugees into the Gathering Points (GP). B. Supply the refugees with first aid and water. C. Transport the refugees to the Transit camp. The Force reserve will have the responsibility in the Transit camp as well as for the transport and hand over to UNHCR. OWN COA 2 The Force Reserve in TACON of the Bn along the border and having responsibility for: A. Directing the refugees into the Gathering Points (GP). B. Supply the refugees with first aid and water. C. Transport the refugees to the Transit camp. D. Transport the refugees from the Transit Camp to UNHCR Each Bn in the border area will perform their usual PK activities.

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65 COA gaming advantagesdisadvantagesIdentify advantages and disadvantages of single Own COAs. Use method that permits an analysis in time & space: Deliberate Timeline AnalysisDeliberate Timeline Analysis Operational PhasingOperational Phasing Critical EventsCritical Events UNSOC

66 COA gaming (Continued) Advantages and Disadvantages of each Course Of Action. Own PROBABILITY OF SUCCESSMOST LIKELY MOST DANGEROUS Determines which Own Course Of Action has highest PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS against MOST LIKELY & MOST DANGEROUS FWF Course Of Action Presented in Tabular Form UNSOC

67 COA gaming (1) FWF COA Most Likely Most Dangerous Own COA 1 Own COA 2 UNSOC

68 COA Comparison examinationComparison is accomplished through an examination of war game results, and the advantages and disadvantages. selection criteriaComparison against selection criteria. tabular formResult of comparison usually presented in tabular form during COA Decision Brief. UNSOC

69 COA Comparison Selection Criteria COA´s must be compared against Selection Criteria: For example: Secrecy Force Protection Surprise Speed Flexibility Freedom of Movement SELECTION CRITERIA CAN BE WEIGHTED, DUE TO IMPORTANCE!! UNSOC

70 Selection Criteria Comparison Criteria COA 1 COA 2 Ops security Force Protection (x3) Surprise (x2) Freedom of Movement Flexibility Yes, very well.Yes its quick, but the establishment of outer security could blow the moment of surprise. Conclusion: UNSOC

71 COA Comparison Own COA 1 Own COA 2 Advantages (Pros) Disadvantages (Cons) UNSOC

72 Disciplined Process to visualise the Flow of the Operation Disciplined Process to visualise the Flow of the Operation Action, Reaction, Counteraction Action, Reaction, Counteraction Basis for making recommendation to the Commander Basis for making recommendation to the Commander Tests and Improves Courses Of Action (Viability) Tests and Improves Courses Of Action (Viability) Tools for COA Gaming: Tools for COA Gaming:Map COS / Staff COA Gaming & Comparison - Sum Up UNSOC

73 Development of CONOPS Critical assumptions Assessment of the Situation Mission & Intent Operational Concept Logistics Concept Command & Control Issues UNSOC

74 WHO WHAT COS Mission, situation, FC’s guidance, conclusion MIO Updated Intelligence Preparation Products Terrain/Weather Analysis, Threat Evaluation, COO Own Restated Mission, Status of Own Forces CMPO,MIO, Own situation CLO, CMCOORD LO, COMMS MIO Non UN forces COA´s COO Own COA´s Comparison of Own COA´s. Pros and Cons for each COA Recommended COA (What, When, Where, Who, Why and How) FC Decision COS Plan for staff work COA DECISION BRIEF UNSOC

75 Case Study No 4: COA DECISION BRIEFING. Case Study No 4: The syndicate will now form a Bde Staff. Prepare the COA DECISION BRIEFING. UNSOC

76 “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 4 Course Of Action Decision Briefing (Hand-out) UNSOC


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