7 analysis - not planning PfPSOCTHE PLANNING CYCLEUNSOCEstimatesOPLAN/OPORDCOA Decision BriefingThis part of thePlanning Processis only foranalysis - not planningCONCEPT DEVELOPMENTPHASEPLAN DEVELOPMENTPHASEMission Analysis BriefingPLAN REVIEW PHASEMissionanalysisControl -new missionMissionORIENTATION PHASEINITIATION PHASE
8 THE PLANNING CYCLE UNSOC This part of the Planning Process is only for PfPSOCTHE PLANNING CYCLEUNSOCEstimatesThis part of thePlanning Processis only forplanningOPLAN/OPORDCOA Decision BriefingCONCEPT DEVELOPMENTPHASEPLAN DEVELOPMENTPHASEMission Analysis BriefingPLAN REVIEW PHASEMissionanalysisControl -new missionMissionORIENTATION PHASEINITIATION PHASE
9 This part of the Planning of the decision taken by PfPSOCTHE PLANNING CYCLEUNSOCEstimatesOPLAN/OPORDCOA Decision BriefingCONCEPT DEVELOPMENTPHASEThis part of the PlanningProcess is only fordocumentationof the decision taken bythe commanderPLAN DEVELOPMENTPHASEMission Analysis BriefingPLAN REVIEW PHASEMissionanalysisControl -new missionMissionORIENTATION PHASEINITIATION PHASE
10 THE PLANNING CYCLE UNSOC This part of the Planning Process is only for PfPSOCTHE PLANNING CYCLEUNSOCEstimatesOPLAN/OPORDCOA Decision BriefingThis part of thePlanning Processis only forcontrolling.Demands for changeswill result in a newplanning process- starts from thebeginning!!!!!CONCEPT DEVELOPMENTPHASEPLAN DEVELOPMENTPHASEMission Analysis BriefingPLAN REVIEW PHASEMissionanalysisControl -new missionMissionORIENTATION PHASEINITIATION PHASE
11 THE PLANNING CYCLE UNSOC Estimates OPLAN/ OPORD Estimates Mission PfPSOCEstimatesIn a complicated missionthere can be many staff meetings- in a simple task only few -but you will always haveMISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFINGCOA DECISION BRIEFINGTHE PLANNING CYCLEUNSOCEstimatesOPLAN/OPORDCOA Decision BriefingCONCEPT DEVELOPMENTPHASEPLAN DEVELOPMENTPHASEMission Analysis BriefingPLAN REVIEW PHASEMissionanalysisControl -new missionMissionORIENTATION PHASEINITIATION PHASE
12 Mission Analysis UNSOC The aim of the mission analysis is to identify the boundaries of the problem.This includes:interpretation and definition of the given orderconditions that may affect the missionreview of own and opposing forces to determine strengthsand weaknesses.
13 MISSION ANALYSIS STEPS PfPSOCMISSION ANALYSIS STEPSUNSOCStep 1. Analyse the higher commander’s order.Step 2. Conduct Initial Intelligence Preparation (Situation overview).Step 3. Analyse Higher Commander’s Intent, Mission, Objectives and Desired End State.Step 4. Identify Planning Limitations.Step 5. Identify Assumptions.Step 6. Identify critical FactsStep 7. Strengths and Weaknesses (both opposing and own forces).Step 8. Centres of Gravity (COG)/Decisive PointsStep 9. Identify/determine Tasks (assigned, implied and essential)Step 10. Determine Own Objectives, Desired End State and Criteria for SuccessStep 11. Write the restated mission (WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE AND WHY).Step 12. Conduct a mission analysis briefingStep 13. Approve the restated mission.Step 14. Develop the commander's initial intent.Step 15. Issue the commander's guidance.Step 16. Issue a warning order.Step 17. Review facts and assumptions.This can also be donein a staff meeting -COS Mission Analysis -and is normally doneby the COS - in co-opwith branch Heads.MISSION ANALYSIS:For a complex missionit might be a longer procedure -For a simple missionwe might be doing thisin minutes!
14 Higher Commander´s Plan PfPSOCMISSION ANALYSISHigher Commander´s PlanCommander´s Intent: Two Levels UpMission:Tasks: Specified, Implied, EssentialConstraints & RestraintsRiskAvailable ForcesArea Of Operations / InterestConcept Of OperationTimelineSTEP 1/38
15 INITIAL INFORMATION PREPARATION OF THE AOR PfPSOCINITIAL INFORMATION PREPARATION OF THE AORSystematic and Continuous ProcessDefines the Area of Responsibility (AOR) & Initial CollectionEffortsAnalysis & Estimates Threat & Effects of the AORAssists the Staff to focus the Planning;-Development of COAs, collection of info, etc.Produces specific Products;-Situation TemplateSTEP 2KITTENSEEUBUNGSDORFOBERSCHWENDALBERTSHOFRAVERSDORFENSLWANGCMTC9
16 Planning Limitations Exist as restraints, constraints and pre-conditions for success.Restraints limit what may be done - must not do!Constraints impose obligations that must be met.Pre-conditions stated by CO as essential for mission success.STEP 4
17 MISSION ANALYSIS Assumptions PfPSOCMISSION ANALYSISAssumptionsAssumptions state essential conditions which must exist if a specific plan is to succeed -- take the place of facts -- mustbe valid and necessary -- regularly validate assumptions.STEP 5TUZLAKLADANJZVORNIKDOBOJUGLJEVICBRCKO2nd BDE1st BDETOMICIODZAKExamples from SFOR / KFOR:Population generally support the implementationof the Peace Agreement and the presence ofPeace Troops in AOR.23
18 Facts and Assumptions Three-step thinking: 2. Consequences UNSOCThree-step thinking:1. Facts or Assumptions (Critical?)2. Consequences3. Conclusions“What does it mean to me??”“What do I need to do??”STEP 6
19 Strengths and Weakness UNSOCSTEP 7Identify both opposing and own forces2. Conclusions“What does it mean to me??”
20 Centre of Gravity (COG) STEP 8Exist at strategic, operational and tactical levels.“the Hub of all power and movement on which everything depends”.“the Point against which all energies should be directed”.
21 Centre of Gravity (COG) (Continued) STEP 8The COG is that characteristic, capability, locality, from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight.If attacked, destroyed, neutralised or eliminated, will lead to inevitable defeat or wish for peace.
22 Centre of Gravity (COG) (Continued) “Exploit FWF COG,while protecting Own COG”STEP 8
23 Decisive Points (DPs) DPs are keys to getting at the COGs. STEP 8DPs are keys to getting at the COGs.May exist in time, space or in the information environment.Geographical in nature, but can be linked to attainment ofspecific capabilities or to elements of combat functions
24 Decisive Points (DPs) (Continued) STEP 8Control of DPs provides CO with possibility to greatlyinfluence the outcome of an action.Proper action at DPs allows the CO to gain initiative,retain freedom of operational manoeuvre and maintainmomentum.
25 Centre of Gravity (COG) An Example STEP 8Operational:Bogaland KasurianStability and Independency from VallaBogaland MidianStability in whole BogalandUNMIBImplementation of UN Mandate
26 Decisive Points DPs (Examples) STEP 8Prepare a Contingency Plan for Ops within Enclave.Negotiations with Parties.Liaison with UN Agencies in AOR.Arms embargo operations.Maintain Freedom of movement (FOM).Support of International Organisations/ NGO´s.Information Operations.Maintain the security in the whole AOR and in the ZOS.Co-ordinate C2, Comms, liaison, and operational requirements..
27 TASKS Specified/Implied/Essential Specified tasks are stated in higher CO´s order.STEP 9Implied tasks are those not mentioned in the order, but are identifiedwhen analysing the order.Essential tasks could consist of both specified and implied tasks, are necessary for mission accomplishment.
28 Desired End StateSTEP 10A descriptive statement of the political and militaryconditions that indicate mission completion.Likely to be general in nature, not to limit the CO´smethod of achieving the mission.
29 Criteria for SuccessSTEP 10Because the End State is general or broad, it may be hard todetermine mission success.Measurable criteria to determine achievement of End State.
30 Restated Mission Force Commander´s Order 2.Mission 3.Execution STEP 11 a. Concept of Operations(1) Commander´s Intent(2) Scheme of Manoeuvreb. Tasks to Manoeuvre units(UNMIB)STEP 11UNMIB Order2.Mission3.Executiona. Concept of Operations(1) Commander´s Intent(2) Scheme of Manoeuvreb. Tasks to Manoeuvre unitsMission statement should answerthe questions:WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE AND WHY
31 Mission Statement (Example) STEP 11“UNMIB will NLT D+2 until further notice conductPeace Support Operations in assigned AOR inBogaland. UNMIB will establish and maintaina Zone of Separation and effectively separate the Parties´Forces. Operations will be executed in co-operation withother civilian organisations, together withlocal authorities in order to establish and maintain a safeand secure environment for local population andhumanitarian agencies.”WHOWHENWHATWHEREWHY
32 MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING PfPSOCMISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFINGWHO WHATCOS Purpose and Agenda, Mission.COO General situation, HQ or higher Commanders Intent,Concept of Operation, Centers of Gravity, Desired End-state.MIO Initial Information's Preparation.Terrain/Weather Analysis, Threat Evaluation.COO Specified, Implied, Essential Tasks.Facts, Assumptions, Limitations.Conclusions: Shortfalls/Critical obstacles/Recommendations.CMPO Personnel Estimate.CLO Logistics Estimate.CMCOORD Civil Military Affairs Estimate.COMMS COMMS EstimateCOS Request Commander´s Guidance.STEP 12
33 COMMANDER'S INITIAL INTENT PfPSOCCOMMANDER'SINITIAL INTENTCommander PERSONALLY Prepares his IntentMust be UNDERSTOOD Two Levels DownClear, Concise Statement of the SUCCESS CRITERIA with respect to the SITUATION, the TERRAIN and to the DESIRED ENDSTATE.KEY TASKS that are the basis for initiative of Subordinates.BROADER PURPOSE beyond the MISSION.STEP 14
34 The task has been given to the Military Component BLUEPOCKET Teda Prepare to receive, contain, protect and provide basic needs to refugees crossing the border from TEDA to VALLA in order to hand these refugees over to UNHCR as soon as possible.On request UNMIB will support UNHCR to set up protected camps or other accommodations in case of a greater numbers of refugees crossing in to VALLA .TedaBLUETOWNThe task hasbeen given tothe MilitaryComponentxxMAIN ROADValla0 KM5 KM
35 UNSOCFirst task: Prepare the mission analysis briefing for First Staff Conference
36 PfPSOCUNSOCCase Study No 1: Conduct the Mission Analysis and prepare for the Mission Analysis Briefing.
38 “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 1 UNSOC“SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 1Mission Analysis Briefing(Hand-out)
39 We will now focus on the next part of the planning process PfPSOCTHE PLANNING CYCLEPfPSOCWe willnow focus onthe next partof the planningprocessEstimatesOPLAN/OPORDCOA Decision BriefingCONCEPT DEVELOPMENTPHASEPLAN DEVELOPMENTPHASEMission Analysis BriefingPLAN REVIEW PHASEMissionanalysisControl -new missionMissionORIENTATION PHASEINITIATION PHASE
40 Phases and Outputs UNSOC INITIATION ORIENTATION CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PLANREVIEWCONDUCT MISSION ANALYSISMISSION ANALYSISBRIEFINGCO’S PLANNINGGUIDANCERECEIVEORDERGATHER INFOSTAFF ANALYSISDEVELOP COAsCOA DECISIONDEVELOP CONOPSCONOPSDEVELOPCO-ORDINATESEEK APROVALISSUE PLANOPLAN DISTRIBUTED(MAIN BODY + ANNEXES)PLAN REVIEWPLAN EVALUPDATED OPLAN/OPORDOUTPUT
41 Concept Development UNSOC The final product of this planning phase is a CONOPS based on a single Own COA, chosen by the Commander. Four steps are carried out during this phase:Staff AnalysisDevelopment of COAs (opposing forces and own)Decision BriefingCONOPS Development
42 Staff AnalysisUNSOCTo examine factors and deductions and to identify assumptions relevant to the mission in order to:Ascertain whether the mission is achievable.Develop COA that are viable and supportable.Factors to examine are:Overall Situation in AORFWF Situation & CapabilitiesOwn Forces Situation & CapabilitiesTerrain & WeatherCommand & ControlKITTENSEEUBUNGSDORFOBERSCHWENDALBERTSHOFRAVERSDORFENSLWANGCMTC
43 INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE AOR (Continued) PfPSOCINTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OFTHE AOR (Continued)UNSOCSystematic and Continuous ProcessDefines the AOR & Initial Collection EffortsAnalysis & Estimates Threat & Effects of the AOREnvironmentDevelopment of COAs;The Most Likely & the Most Dangerous, with ObjectivesProduces specific Products;-Situation TemplateKITTENSEEUBUNGSDORFOBERSCHWENDALBERTSHOFRAVERSDORFENSLWANGCMTC9
44 Development of FWF COA´s UNSOCDevelopment of FWF COA´sIdentify the players. (civil population, police, military, rebels)Mark their location on the map.What can they do?Develop COAs by brainstorming.Decide what COA is the Most Likely and the Most Dangerous.Describe also what objectives they have in each COA.
45 FORMER WARRING FACTIONS PfPSOCUNSOCFORMER WARRING FACTIONSConsiderations:Commander Objectives?Force Structure/Order of Battle?Intelligence Capabilities?Most Likely/Dangerous COA?Critical Vulnerabilities?Constraints and Restrictions?Recent Tactical Performance?Sustainment Capability?Situational TemplatePlot Unit LocationsDisplay Likely Actions UsedFor Subsequent PlanningExample :Not only Military units are players. Police, Paramilitary units, Criminal Gangs and Civilians are players as well and must be assessed too.17
46 TERRAIN UNSOC Example : PfPSOCUNSOCTERRAINConsiderations :Area of Operation/Area of Interest?Key Terrain -- Decisive Terrain?Areas of Critical Movement Constriction?Movement Rate Estimates?Terrain Protection from Enemy Recce?Logistics Infrastructure?Area Where FWF Are Most Vulnerable?Key TerrainObstaclesAvenues of ApproachConcealment and CoverObservation & Fields of FireTerrain:Slope/Line Of SightElevationVegetationSoil and WaterMobilityExample :Main Supply Routes and roads in general are very important tomaintain Freedom of movement, mainly due to mine threat.13
47 Natural Light and Illumination PfPSOCWEATHERUNSOCConsiderations for COAs:TemperatureHigh LowNWindsVisibility? Rain? Snow? Sleet?Humidity?...Air Density?Cloud Cover/Ceiling...Fog?Natural Light and IlluminationDAY BMNT Sunrise EENT Sunset Moonrise Illumination MoonsetExample :No aviation support by helicopter during long periods due torain seasons, low clouds and dense fog14
51 “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 2 UNSOC“SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 2FWF Course Of Action
52 BLUEPOCKET Teda COA 1 MOST DANGEROUS BLUETOWN COA 2 MOST LIKELY COA 3 0 KM5 KMVallaTedaBLUEPOCKETBLUETOWNMAIN ROADTeda forces will startethnic cleansing to force themain body of the population toflee the pocket andTedaCOA 1MOST DANGEROUSTeda forces willlaunch an operation againstthe FBA and this operationwill result in a number ofrefugees fleeing the pocketCOA 2MOST LIKELYCOA 3Teda forces will sealoff the pocket in order to doa ”search and destroy”operation against FBA
54 UNSOCOwn Course of ActionAn Own COA is a possible option open to the commander that would accomplish the mission.Every attempt should be made to develop as many COAs as possible (Brainstorming).It is initially stated in broad terms.(When, Who, What, Where, Why and How)
55 Own Course of Action (Cont.) UNSOCOwn Course of Action (Cont.)All Own COAs should be tested for its viability.Suitable (will the COA result in mission accomplishment?)Feasible (achievable within allocated resources?)Acceptable (accepted doctrine, risk etc)Exclusivity (different comparative advantages and disadvantages?)Completeness (Does the COA answer the when, where, who, what, why and how questions?)
56 OWN FORCES UNSOC Example : PfPSOCOWN FORCESUNSOCConsiderations:Commander Objectives?Forces and Task Organisation?Critical Vulnerabilities?Constraints and Restrictions?Recent Tactical Performance?Sustainment Capability?Multinational Operations?Interoperability with Partners?Command & Control relations?Ethnic/Religious issues?SAVA RIVERTUZLAXXNORDPOLXI I I1-77IIRUSBDE4101TURKRGTRMND(N)MND(SE)MNBxTKTMND(SW)MND (N)1-412-282Example :Almost every operation, planned or executed, involved complicated Command & Control arrangements due to multinational arrangements.18
57 Course Of Action Development PfPSOCUNSOCCourse Of Action DevelopmentWho-What-Where-When-Why-HowScheme of Manoeuvre/Concept of Fire support/TempoConsiderations:Suitable -- HQ´s GuidanceFeasible -- CapabilityAcceptable -- Cost:CasualtiesResourcesTimeExclusivity -- DifferentComplete -- Mission/IntentConcept/FutureTask OrgReserveMain EffortScheme ofManoeuvreSuccessCriteria28
60 “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 3 UNSOC“SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 3OWN Courses Of Action
61 Directions from the border to Gathering Points (GP), VALLATEDABLUEPOCKETBLUETOWNMAIN ROAD0 KM5 KMResponsibility forbasic need and forsecurity will start atthe border and willend when we havehanded over to UNHCRPRINCIPLE:Directions from the borderto Gathering Points (GP),then transport from GP toTransit camp and transportfrom Transit Camp toUNHCR campGPTRANSITCAMP
62 BLUEPOCKET TEDA BLUETOWN VALLA OWN COA 1 OWN COA 2 0 KM5 KMVALLATEDABLUEPOCKETBLUETOWNMAIN ROADOWN COA 1Each Bn has the responsibility for:A. Directing the refugees into the Gathering Points (GP).B. Supply the refugees with first aid and water.C. Transport the refugees to the Transit camp.The Force reserve will have the responsibility in the Transit camp as well as for the transport and hand over to UNHCR.OWN COA 2The Force Reserve in TACON of the Bn along the border and having responsibility for:A. Directing the refugees into the Gathering Points (GP).B. Supply the refugees with first aid and water.C. Transport the refugees to the Transit camp.D. Transport the refugees from the Transit Camp to UNHCREach Bn in the border area will perform their usual PK activities.
64 COA gaming Identify advantages and disadvantages of single Own COAs. UNSOCCOA gamingIdentify advantages and disadvantages of single Own COAs.Use method that permits an analysis in time & space:Deliberate Timeline AnalysisOperational PhasingCritical Events
65 COA gaming (Continued) PfPSOCUNSOCCOA gaming (Continued)Advantages and Disadvantages of each Course Of Action.Determines which Own Course Of Action has highest PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS against MOST LIKELY & MOST DANGEROUS FWF Course Of ActionPresented in Tabular Form
67 UNSOCCOA ComparisonComparison is accomplished through an examination of war game results, and the advantages and disadvantages.Comparison against selection criteria.Result of comparison usually presented in tabular form during COA Decision Brief.
68 COA Comparison SELECTION CRITERIA CAN BE WEIGHTED, DUE TO IMPORTANCE!! UNSOCCOA ComparisonCOA´s must be compared against Selection Criteria:For example:SecrecyForce ProtectionSurpriseSpeedFlexibilityFreedom of MovementSELECTION CRITERIACAN BE WEIGHTED,DUE TO IMPORTANCE!!
69 Selection Criteria Comparison UNSOCCriteriaCOA 1COA 2Ops securityForce Protection (x3)Surprise (x2)Freedom of MovementFlexibility+ + ++ +12Yes, very well.Yes its quick,but theestablishmentof outer securitycould blow themoment ofsurprise.Conclusion:
70 COA Comparison UNSOC Advantages Disadvantages (Pros) (Cons) Own COA 1
71 COA Gaming & Comparison PfPSOCUNSOCCOA Gaming & Comparison- Sum UpDisciplined Process to visualise the Flow of the OperationAction, Reaction, CounteractionBasis for making recommendation to the CommanderTests and Improves Courses Of Action (Viability)Tools for COA Gaming:MapCOS / Staff
72 Development of CONOPS Critical assumptions Assessment of the Situation UNSOCDevelopment of CONOPSCritical assumptionsAssessment of the SituationMission & IntentOperational ConceptLogistics ConceptCommand & Control Issues
73 COA DECISION BRIEF UNSOC WHO WHAT PfPSOCCOA DECISION BRIEFUNSOCWHO WHATCOS Mission, situation, FC’s guidance, conclusionMIO Updated Intelligence Preparation ProductsTerrain/Weather Analysis, Threat Evaluation,COO Own Restated Mission, Status of Own ForcesCMPO,MIO, Own situationCLO, CMCOORDLO, COMMSMIO Non UN forces COA´sCOO Own COA´sComparison of Own COA´s. Pros and Cons for each COARecommended COA (What, When, Where, Who, Why and How)FC DecisionCOS Plan for staff work
74 PfPSOCUNSOCCase Study No 4: The syndicate will now form a Bde Staff. Prepare the COA DECISION BRIEFING.
75 “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 4 UNSOC“SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 4Course Of Action Decision Briefing(Hand-out)