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A Planning Process UNSOC.

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Presentation on theme: "A Planning Process UNSOC."— Presentation transcript:

1 A Planning Process UNSOC

2 THE PLANNING PROCESS - with case studies
PfPSOC UNSOC THE PLANNING PROCESS - with case studies

3 Learning Objectives UNSOC
To understand the main steps in the Planning Process. To contribute to the work with each step in the Planning Process.

4 Phases and Outputs UNSOC INITIATION ORIENTATION CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT
PLAN REVIEW CONDUCT MISSION ANALYSIS MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING CO’S PLANNING GUIDANCE RECEIVE ORDER GATHER INFO STAFF ANALYSIS DEVELOP COAs COA DECISION DEVELOP CONOPS CONOPS DEVELOP CO-ORDINATE SEEK APROVAL ISSUE PLAN OPLAN DISTRIBUTED (MAIN BODY + ANNEXES) PLAN REVIEW PLAN EVAL UPDATED OPLAN/ OPORD OUTPUT

5 Planning Process - Staff Involvement
UNSOC Plan Development Plan Review Initiation Orientation Concept Development CO COS CMPO MIO COO CLO CMC FWF COA DEVELOP. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING COA DECISION BRIEFING COA COMPARISON GATHER INFO MISSION ANALYSIS STAFF ANALYSIS REVIEW PLAN OWN COA DEVELOP. WRITE OPLAN/OPORD

6 THE PLANNING CYCLE UNSOC Estimates OPLAN/ OPORD Mission Control -
PfPSOC THE PLANNING CYCLE UNSOC Estimates OPLAN/ OPORD COA Decision Briefing CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN DEVELOPMENT PHASE Mission Analysis Briefing PLAN REVIEW PHASE Mission analysis Control - new mission Mission ORIENTATION PHASE INITIATION PHASE

7 analysis - not planning
PfPSOC THE PLANNING CYCLE UNSOC Estimates OPLAN/ OPORD COA Decision Briefing This part of the Planning Process is only for analysis - not planning CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN DEVELOPMENT PHASE Mission Analysis Briefing PLAN REVIEW PHASE Mission analysis Control - new mission Mission ORIENTATION PHASE INITIATION PHASE

8 THE PLANNING CYCLE UNSOC This part of the Planning Process is only for
PfPSOC THE PLANNING CYCLE UNSOC Estimates This part of the Planning Process is only for planning OPLAN/ OPORD COA Decision Briefing CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN DEVELOPMENT PHASE Mission Analysis Briefing PLAN REVIEW PHASE Mission analysis Control - new mission Mission ORIENTATION PHASE INITIATION PHASE

9 This part of the Planning of the decision taken by
PfPSOC THE PLANNING CYCLE UNSOC Estimates OPLAN/ OPORD COA Decision Briefing CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PHASE This part of the Planning Process is only for documentation of the decision taken by the commander PLAN DEVELOPMENT PHASE Mission Analysis Briefing PLAN REVIEW PHASE Mission analysis Control - new mission Mission ORIENTATION PHASE INITIATION PHASE

10 THE PLANNING CYCLE UNSOC This part of the Planning Process is only for
PfPSOC THE PLANNING CYCLE UNSOC Estimates OPLAN/ OPORD COA Decision Briefing This part of the Planning Process is only for controlling. Demands for changes will result in a new planning process - starts from the beginning!!!!! CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN DEVELOPMENT PHASE Mission Analysis Briefing PLAN REVIEW PHASE Mission analysis Control - new mission Mission ORIENTATION PHASE INITIATION PHASE

11 THE PLANNING CYCLE UNSOC Estimates OPLAN/ OPORD Estimates Mission
PfPSOC Estimates In a complicated mission there can be many staff meetings - in a simple task only few - but you will always have MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING COA DECISION BRIEFING THE PLANNING CYCLE UNSOC Estimates OPLAN/ OPORD COA Decision Briefing CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN DEVELOPMENT PHASE Mission Analysis Briefing PLAN REVIEW PHASE Mission analysis Control - new mission Mission ORIENTATION PHASE INITIATION PHASE

12 Mission Analysis UNSOC
The aim of the mission analysis is to identify the boundaries of the problem. This includes: interpretation and definition of the given order conditions that may affect the mission review of own and opposing forces to determine strengths and weaknesses.

13 MISSION ANALYSIS STEPS
PfPSOC MISSION ANALYSIS STEPS UNSOC Step 1. Analyse the higher commander’s order. Step 2. Conduct Initial Intelligence Preparation (Situation overview). Step 3. Analyse Higher Commander’s Intent, Mission, Objectives and Desired End State. Step 4. Identify Planning Limitations. Step 5. Identify Assumptions. Step 6. Identify critical Facts Step 7. Strengths and Weaknesses (both opposing and own forces). Step 8. Centres of Gravity (COG)/Decisive Points Step 9. Identify/determine Tasks (assigned, implied and essential) Step 10. Determine Own Objectives, Desired End State and Criteria for Success Step 11. Write the restated mission (WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE AND WHY). Step 12. Conduct a mission analysis briefing Step 13. Approve the restated mission. Step 14. Develop the commander's initial intent. Step 15. Issue the commander's guidance. Step 16. Issue a warning order. Step 17. Review facts and assumptions. This can also be done in a staff meeting - COS Mission Analysis - and is normally done by the COS - in co-op with branch Heads. MISSION ANALYSIS: For a complex mission it might be a longer procedure - For a simple mission we might be doing this in minutes!

14 Higher Commander´s Plan
PfPSOC MISSION ANALYSIS Higher Commander´s Plan Commander´s Intent: Two Levels Up Mission: Tasks: Specified, Implied, Essential Constraints & Restraints Risk Available Forces Area Of Operations / Interest Concept Of Operation Timeline STEP 1/3 8

15 INITIAL INFORMATION PREPARATION OF THE AOR
PfPSOC INITIAL INFORMATION PREPARATION OF THE AOR Systematic and Continuous Process Defines the Area of Responsibility (AOR) & Initial Collection Efforts Analysis & Estimates Threat & Effects of the AOR Assists the Staff to focus the Planning; -Development of COAs, collection of info, etc. Produces specific Products; -Situation Template STEP 2 KITTENSEE UBUNGSDORF OBERSCHWEND ALBERTSHOF RAVERSDORF ENSLWANG CMTC 9

16 Planning Limitations Exist as restraints, constraints and
pre-conditions for success. Restraints limit what may be done - must not do! Constraints impose obligations that must be met. Pre-conditions stated by CO as essential for mission success. STEP 4

17 MISSION ANALYSIS Assumptions
PfPSOC MISSION ANALYSIS Assumptions Assumptions state essential conditions which must exist if a specific plan is to succeed -- take the place of facts -- must be valid and necessary -- regularly validate assumptions. STEP 5 TUZLA KLADANJ ZVORNIK DOBOJ UGLJEVIC BRCKO 2nd BDE 1st BDE TOMICI ODZAK Examples from SFOR / KFOR: Population generally support the implementation of the Peace Agreement and the presence of Peace Troops in AOR. 23

18 Facts and Assumptions Three-step thinking: 2. Consequences
UNSOC Three-step thinking: 1. Facts or Assumptions (Critical?) 2. Consequences 3. Conclusions “What does it mean to me??” “What do I need to do??” STEP 6

19 Strengths and Weakness
UNSOC STEP 7 Identify both opposing and own forces 2. Conclusions “What does it mean to me??”

20 Centre of Gravity (COG)
STEP 8 Exist at strategic, operational and tactical levels. “the Hub of all power and movement on which everything depends”. “the Point against which all energies should be directed”.

21 Centre of Gravity (COG) (Continued)
STEP 8 The COG is that characteristic, capability, locality, from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight. If attacked, destroyed, neutralised or eliminated, will lead to inevitable defeat or wish for peace.

22 Centre of Gravity (COG) (Continued)
“Exploit FWF COG, while protecting Own COG” STEP 8

23 Decisive Points (DPs) DPs are keys to getting at the COGs.
STEP 8 DPs are keys to getting at the COGs. May exist in time, space or in the information environment. Geographical in nature, but can be linked to attainment of specific capabilities or to elements of combat functions

24 Decisive Points (DPs) (Continued)
STEP 8 Control of DPs provides CO with possibility to greatly influence the outcome of an action. Proper action at DPs allows the CO to gain initiative, retain freedom of operational manoeuvre and maintain momentum.

25 Centre of Gravity (COG) An Example
STEP 8 Operational: Bogaland Kasurian Stability and Independency from Valla Bogaland Midian Stability in whole Bogaland UNMIB Implementation of UN Mandate

26 Decisive Points DPs (Examples)
STEP 8 Prepare a Contingency Plan for Ops within Enclave. Negotiations with Parties. Liaison with UN Agencies in AOR. Arms embargo operations. Maintain Freedom of movement (FOM). Support of International Organisations/ NGO´s. Information Operations. Maintain the security in the whole AOR and in the ZOS. Co-ordinate C2, Comms, liaison, and operational requirements..

27 TASKS Specified/Implied/Essential
Specified tasks are stated in higher CO´s order. STEP 9 Implied tasks are those not mentioned in the order, but are identified when analysing the order. Essential tasks could consist of both specified and implied tasks, are necessary for mission accomplishment.

28 Desired End State STEP 10 A descriptive statement of the political and military conditions that indicate mission completion. Likely to be general in nature, not to limit the CO´s method of achieving the mission.

29 Criteria for Success STEP 10 Because the End State is general or broad, it may be hard to determine mission success. Measurable criteria to determine achievement of End State.

30 Restated Mission Force Commander´s Order 2.Mission 3.Execution STEP 11
a. Concept of Operations (1) Commander´s Intent (2) Scheme of Manoeuvre b. Tasks to Manoeuvre units (UNMIB) STEP 11 UNMIB Order 2.Mission 3.Execution a. Concept of Operations (1) Commander´s Intent (2) Scheme of Manoeuvre b. Tasks to Manoeuvre units Mission statement should answer the questions: WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE AND WHY

31 Mission Statement (Example)
STEP 11 “UNMIB will NLT D+2 until further notice conduct Peace Support Operations in assigned AOR in Bogaland. UNMIB will establish and maintain a Zone of Separation and effectively separate the Parties´ Forces. Operations will be executed in co-operation with other civilian organisations, together with local authorities in order to establish and maintain a safe and secure environment for local population and humanitarian agencies.” WHO WHEN WHAT WHERE WHY

32 MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING
PfPSOC MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING WHO WHAT COS Purpose and Agenda, Mission. COO General situation, HQ or higher Commanders Intent, Concept of Operation, Centers of Gravity, Desired End-state. MIO Initial Information's Preparation. Terrain/Weather Analysis, Threat Evaluation. COO Specified, Implied, Essential Tasks. Facts, Assumptions, Limitations. Conclusions: Shortfalls/Critical obstacles/Recommendations. CMPO Personnel Estimate. CLO Logistics Estimate. CMCOORD Civil Military Affairs Estimate. COMMS COMMS Estimate COS Request Commander´s Guidance. STEP 12

33 COMMANDER'S INITIAL INTENT
PfPSOC COMMANDER'S INITIAL INTENT Commander PERSONALLY Prepares his Intent Must be UNDERSTOOD Two Levels Down Clear, Concise Statement of the SUCCESS CRITERIA with respect to the SITUATION, the TERRAIN and to the DESIRED ENDSTATE. KEY TASKS that are the basis for initiative of Subordinates. BROADER PURPOSE beyond the MISSION. STEP 14

34 The task has been given to the Military Component BLUEPOCKET Teda
Prepare to receive, contain, protect and provide basic needs to refugees crossing the border from TEDA to VALLA in order to hand these refugees over to UNHCR as soon as possible. On request UNMIB will support UNHCR to set up protected camps or other accommodations in case of a greater numbers of refugees crossing in to VALLA . Teda BLUETOWN The task has been given to the Military Component x x MAIN ROAD Valla 0 KM 5 KM

35 UNSOC First task: Prepare the mission analysis briefing for First Staff Conference

36 PfPSOC UNSOC Case Study No 1: Conduct the Mission Analysis and prepare for the Mission Analysis Briefing.

37

38 “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 1
UNSOC “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 1 Mission Analysis Briefing (Hand-out)

39 We will now focus on the next part of the planning process
PfPSOC THE PLANNING CYCLE PfPSOC We will now focus on the next part of the planning process Estimates OPLAN/ OPORD COA Decision Briefing CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PHASE PLAN DEVELOPMENT PHASE Mission Analysis Briefing PLAN REVIEW PHASE Mission analysis Control - new mission Mission ORIENTATION PHASE INITIATION PHASE

40 Phases and Outputs UNSOC INITIATION ORIENTATION CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT
PLAN REVIEW CONDUCT MISSION ANALYSIS MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING CO’S PLANNING GUIDANCE RECEIVE ORDER GATHER INFO STAFF ANALYSIS DEVELOP COAs COA DECISION DEVELOP CONOPS CONOPS DEVELOP CO-ORDINATE SEEK APROVAL ISSUE PLAN OPLAN DISTRIBUTED (MAIN BODY + ANNEXES) PLAN REVIEW PLAN EVAL UPDATED OPLAN/ OPORD OUTPUT

41 Concept Development UNSOC
The final product of this planning phase is a CONOPS based on a single Own COA, chosen by the Commander. Four steps are carried out during this phase: Staff Analysis Development of COAs (opposing forces and own) Decision Briefing CONOPS Development

42 Staff Analysis UNSOC To examine factors and deductions and to identify assumptions relevant to the mission in order to: Ascertain whether the mission is achievable. Develop COA that are viable and supportable. Factors to examine are: Overall Situation in AOR FWF Situation & Capabilities Own Forces Situation & Capabilities Terrain & Weather Command & Control KITTENSEE UBUNGSDORF OBERSCHWEND ALBERTSHOF RAVERSDORF ENSLWANG CMTC

43 INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE AOR (Continued)
PfPSOC INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE AOR (Continued) UNSOC Systematic and Continuous Process Defines the AOR & Initial Collection Efforts Analysis & Estimates Threat & Effects of the AOR Environment Development of COAs; The Most Likely & the Most Dangerous, with Objectives Produces specific Products; -Situation Template KITTENSEE UBUNGSDORF OBERSCHWEND ALBERTSHOF RAVERSDORF ENSLWANG CMTC 9

44 Development of FWF COA´s
UNSOC Development of FWF COA´s Identify the players. (civil population, police, military, rebels) Mark their location on the map. What can they do? Develop COAs by brainstorming. Decide what COA is the Most Likely and the Most Dangerous. Describe also what objectives they have in each COA.

45 FORMER WARRING FACTIONS
PfPSOC UNSOC FORMER WARRING FACTIONS Considerations: Commander Objectives? Force Structure/Order of Battle? Intelligence Capabilities? Most Likely/Dangerous COA? Critical Vulnerabilities? Constraints and Restrictions? Recent Tactical Performance? Sustainment Capability? Situational Template Plot Unit Locations Display Likely Actions Used For Subsequent Planning Example : Not only Military units are players. Police, Paramilitary units, Criminal Gangs and Civilians are players as well and must be assessed too. 17

46 TERRAIN UNSOC Example :
PfPSOC UNSOC TERRAIN Considerations : Area of Operation/Area of Interest? Key Terrain -- Decisive Terrain? Areas of Critical Movement Constriction? Movement Rate Estimates? Terrain Protection from Enemy Recce? Logistics Infrastructure? Area Where FWF Are Most Vulnerable? Key Terrain Obstacles Avenues of Approach Concealment and Cover Observation & Fields of Fire Terrain: Slope/Line Of Sight Elevation Vegetation Soil and Water Mobility Example : Main Supply Routes and roads in general are very important to maintain Freedom of movement, mainly due to mine threat. 13

47 Natural Light and Illumination
PfPSOC WEATHER UNSOC Considerations for COAs: Temperature High Low N Winds Visibility? Rain? Snow? Sleet? Humidity?...Air Density? Cloud Cover/Ceiling...Fog? Natural Light and Illumination DAY BMNT Sunrise EENT Sunset Moonrise Illumination Moonset Example : No aviation support by helicopter during long periods due to rain seasons, low clouds and dense fog 14

48 Planning Process - Staff Involvement
UNSOC Plan Development Plan Review Initiation Orientation Concept Development CO COS CMPO MIO COO CLO CMC FWF COA DEVELOP. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING COA DECISION BRIEFING COA COMPARISON GATHER INFO MISSION ANALYSIS STAFF ANALYSIS REVIEW PLAN OWN COA DEVELOP. WRITE OPLAN/OPORD

49 Case Study No 2: PRODUCE THE FWF COA Most likely Most dangerous
PfPSOC Case Study No 2: PRODUCE THE FWF COA Most likely Most dangerous Assessment of the FWF objectives. UNSOC

50

51 “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 2
UNSOC “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 2 FWF Course Of Action

52 BLUEPOCKET Teda COA 1 MOST DANGEROUS BLUETOWN COA 2 MOST LIKELY COA 3
0 KM 5 KM Valla Teda BLUEPOCKET BLUETOWN MAIN ROAD Teda forces will start ethnic cleansing to force the main body of the population to flee the pocket and Teda COA 1 MOST DANGEROUS Teda forces will launch an operation against the FBA and this operation will result in a number of refugees fleeing the pocket COA 2 MOST LIKELY COA 3 Teda forces will seal off the pocket in order to do a ”search and destroy” operation against FBA

53

54 UNSOC Own Course of Action An Own COA is a possible option open to the commander that would accomplish the mission. Every attempt should be made to develop as many COAs as possible (Brainstorming). It is initially stated in broad terms. (When, Who, What, Where, Why and How)

55 Own Course of Action (Cont.)
UNSOC Own Course of Action (Cont.) All Own COAs should be tested for its viability. Suitable (will the COA result in mission accomplishment?) Feasible (achievable within allocated resources?) Acceptable (accepted doctrine, risk etc) Exclusivity (different comparative advantages and disadvantages?) Completeness (Does the COA answer the when, where, who, what, why and how questions?)

56 OWN FORCES UNSOC Example :
PfPSOC OWN FORCES UNSOC Considerations: Commander Objectives? Forces and Task Organisation? Critical Vulnerabilities? Constraints and Restrictions? Recent Tactical Performance? Sustainment Capability? Multinational Operations? Interoperability with Partners? Command & Control relations? Ethnic/Religious issues? SAVA RIVER TUZLA XX NORDPOL X I I I 1-77 II RUSBDE 4 101 TURKRGT R MND(N) MND(SE) MNB x TK T MND(SW) MND (N) 1-41 2-2 82 Example : Almost every operation, planned or executed, involved complicated Command & Control arrangements due to multinational arrangements. 18

57 Course Of Action Development
PfPSOC UNSOC Course Of Action Development Who-What-Where-When-Why-How Scheme of Manoeuvre/Concept of Fire support/Tempo Considerations: Suitable -- HQ´s Guidance Feasible -- Capability Acceptable -- Cost: Casualties Resources Time Exclusivity -- Different Complete -- Mission/Intent Concept/Future Task Org Reserve Main Effort Scheme of Manoeuvre Success Criteria 28

58 PfPSOC Case Study No 3: PRODUCE OWN COAs UNSOC

59

60 “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 3
UNSOC “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 3 OWN Courses Of Action

61 Directions from the border to Gathering Points (GP),
VALLA TEDA BLUEPOCKET BLUETOWN MAIN ROAD 0 KM 5 KM Responsibility for basic need and for security will start at the border and will end when we have handed over to UNHCR PRINCIPLE: Directions from the border to Gathering Points (GP), then transport from GP to Transit camp and transport from Transit Camp to UNHCR camp GP TRANSITCAMP

62 BLUEPOCKET TEDA BLUETOWN VALLA OWN COA 1 OWN COA 2
0 KM 5 KM VALLA TEDA BLUEPOCKET BLUETOWN MAIN ROAD OWN COA 1 Each Bn has the responsibility for: A. Directing the refugees into the Gathering Points (GP). B. Supply the refugees with first aid and water. C. Transport the refugees to the Transit camp. The Force reserve will have the responsibility in the Transit camp as well as for the transport and hand over to UNHCR. OWN COA 2 The Force Reserve in TACON of the Bn along the border and having responsibility for: A. Directing the refugees into the Gathering Points (GP). B. Supply the refugees with first aid and water. C. Transport the refugees to the Transit camp. D. Transport the refugees from the Transit Camp to UNHCR Each Bn in the border area will perform their usual PK activities.

63

64 COA gaming Identify advantages and disadvantages of single Own COAs.
UNSOC COA gaming Identify advantages and disadvantages of single Own COAs. Use method that permits an analysis in time & space: Deliberate Timeline Analysis Operational Phasing Critical Events

65 COA gaming (Continued)
PfPSOC UNSOC COA gaming (Continued) Advantages and Disadvantages of each Course Of Action. Determines which Own Course Of Action has highest PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS against MOST LIKELY & MOST DANGEROUS FWF Course Of Action Presented in Tabular Form

66 UNSOC COA gaming (1) FWF COA Most Likely Dangerous Own COA 1 COA 2

67 UNSOC COA Comparison Comparison is accomplished through an examination of war game results, and the advantages and disadvantages. Comparison against selection criteria. Result of comparison usually presented in tabular form during COA Decision Brief.

68 COA Comparison SELECTION CRITERIA CAN BE WEIGHTED, DUE TO IMPORTANCE!!
UNSOC COA Comparison COA´s must be compared against Selection Criteria: For example: Secrecy Force Protection Surprise Speed Flexibility Freedom of Movement SELECTION CRITERIA CAN BE WEIGHTED, DUE TO IMPORTANCE!!

69 Selection Criteria Comparison
UNSOC Criteria COA 1 COA 2 Ops security Force Protection (x3) Surprise (x2) Freedom of Movement Flexibility + + + + + 1 2 Yes, very well. Yes its quick, but the establishment of outer security could blow the moment of surprise. Conclusion:

70 COA Comparison UNSOC Advantages Disadvantages (Pros) (Cons) Own COA 1

71 COA Gaming & Comparison
PfPSOC UNSOC COA Gaming & Comparison - Sum Up Disciplined Process to visualise the Flow of the Operation Action, Reaction, Counteraction Basis for making recommendation to the Commander Tests and Improves Courses Of Action (Viability) Tools for COA Gaming: Map COS / Staff

72 Development of CONOPS Critical assumptions Assessment of the Situation
UNSOC Development of CONOPS Critical assumptions Assessment of the Situation Mission & Intent Operational Concept Logistics Concept Command & Control Issues

73 COA DECISION BRIEF UNSOC WHO WHAT
PfPSOC COA DECISION BRIEF UNSOC WHO WHAT COS Mission, situation, FC’s guidance, conclusion MIO Updated Intelligence Preparation Products Terrain/Weather Analysis, Threat Evaluation, COO Own Restated Mission, Status of Own Forces CMPO,MIO, Own situation CLO, CMCOORD LO, COMMS MIO Non UN forces COA´s COO Own COA´s Comparison of Own COA´s. Pros and Cons for each COA Recommended COA (What, When, Where, Who, Why and How) FC Decision COS Plan for staff work

74 PfPSOC UNSOC Case Study No 4: The syndicate will now form a Bde Staff. Prepare the COA DECISION BRIEFING.

75 “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 4
UNSOC “SUGGESTED SOLUTION” Case Study No 4 Course Of Action Decision Briefing (Hand-out)


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