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Presentation on theme: "LECTURE 8 : FACTOR MODELS"— Presentation transcript:

(Asset Pricing and Portfolio Theory)

2 Contents The CAPM Single index model Arbitrage portfolioS
Which factors explain asset prices ? Empirical results

3 Introduction CAPM : Equilibrium model
One factor, where the factor is the excess return on the market. Based on mean-variance analysis Stephen Ross (1976) developed alternative model  Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT)

4 Single Index Model

5 Single Index Model Alternative approach to portfolio theory.
Market return is the single index. Return on a stock can be written as : Ri = ai + biRm ai = ai + ei Hence Ri = ai + biRm + ei Equation (1) Assume : Cov(ei, Rm) = 0 E(eiej) = 0 for all i and j (i ≠ j)

6 Single Index Model (Cont.)
Obtain OLS estimates of ai, bi and sei (using OLS) Mean return : ERi = ai + biERm Variance of security return : s2i = b2is2m + s2ei Covariance of returns between securities : sij = bibjs2m

7 Portfolio Theory and the Market Model
Suppose we have a 5 Stock Portfolio Estimates required Traditional MV-approach 5 Expected returns 5 Variances of returns 10 Covariances Using the Single Index Model 5 OLS regressions 5 alphas and 5 betas 5 Variances of error term 1 Expected return of the market portfolio 1 Variance of market return

8 Factor Models

9 Single Factor Model ER Slope = b a Factor

10 Factor Model : Example Ri = ai + biF1 + ei Example :
Factor-1 is predicted rate of growth in industrial production i mean Ri bi Stock 1 15% 0.9 Stock 2 21% 3.0 Stock 3 12% 1.8

11 The APT : Some Thoughts The Arbitrage Pricing Theory
New and different approach to determine asset prices. Based on the law of one price : two items that are the same cannot sell at different prices. Requires fewer assumptions than CAPM Assumption : each investor, when given the opportunity to increase the return of his portfolio without increasing risk, will do so. Mechanism for doing so : arbitrage portfolio

12 An Arbitrage Portfolio

13 Arbitrage Portfolio Arbitrage portfolio requires no ‘own funds’
Assume there are 3 stocks : 1, 2 and 3 Xi denotes the change in the investors holding (proportion) of security i, then X1 + X2 + X3 = 0 No sensitivity to any factor, so that b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3 = 0 Example : 0.9 X X X3 = 0 (assumes zero non factor risk)

14 Arbitrage Portfolio (Cont.)
Let X1 be 0.1. Then 0.1 + X2 + X3 = 0 X X3 = 0 2 equations, 2 unknowns. Solving this system gives X2 = 0.075 X3 =

15 Arbitrage Portfolio (Cont.)
Expected return X1 ER1 + X2 ER2 + X3 ER3 > 0 Here 15 X X X3 > 0 (= 0.975%) Arbitrage portfolio is attractive to investors who Wants higher expected returns Is not concerned with risk due to factors other than F1

16 Portfolio Stats / Portfolio Weights (Example)
Old Portf. Arbitr. Portf. New Portf. X1 1/3 0.1 0.433 X2 0.075 0.408 X3 -0.175 0.158 Properties ERp 16% 0.975% 16.975% bp 1.9 0.00 sp 11% small approx 11%

17 Pricing Effects Stock 1 and 2 Stock 3
Buying stock 1 and 2 will push prices up Hence expected returns falls Stock 3 Selling stock 3 will push price down Hence expected return will increase Buying/selling stops if all arbitrage possibilities are eliminated. Linear relationship between expected return and sensitivities ERi = l0 + l1bi where bi is the security’s sensitivity to the factor.

18 Interpreting the APT ERi = l0 + l1bi l0 = rf
l1 = pure factor portfolio, p* that has unit sensitivity to the factor For bi = 1 ERp* = rf + l1 or l1 = ERp* - rf (= factor risk premium)

19 Two Factor Model : Example
Ri = ai + bi1F1 + bi2F2 + ei i ERi bi1 bi2 Stock 1 15% Stock 2 21% Stock 3 12% Stock 4 8%

20 Multi Factor Models Ri = ai + bi1 F1 + bi2 F2 + … + bik Fk + ei
ERi = l0 + l1 bi1 + l2 bi2 + … + lkbik

21 Identifying the Factors
Unanswered questions : How many factors ? Identity of factors (i.e. values for lamba) Possible factors (literature suggests : 3 – 5) Chen, Roll and Ross (1986) Growth rate in industrial production Rate of inflation (both expected and unexpected) Spread between long-term and short-term interest rates Spread between low-grade and high-grade bonds

22 Testing the APT

23 Testing the Theory Proof of any economic theory is how well it describes reality. Testing the APT is not straight forward theory specifies a structure for asset pricing theory does not say anything about the economic or firm characteristics that should affect returns. Multifactor return-generating process Ri = ai + S bijFj + ei APT model can be written as ERi = rf + S bijlj

24 Testing the Theory (Cont.)
bij : are unique to each security and represent an attribute of the security Fj : any I affects more than 1 security (if not all). lj : the extra return required because of a security’s sensitivity to the jth attribute of the security

25 Testing the Theory (Cont.)
Obtaining the bij’s First method is to specify a set of attributes (firm characteristics) : bij are directly specified Second method is to estimate the bij’s and then the lj using the equation shown earlier.

26 Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
Technique to reduce the number of variables being studied without losing too much information in the covariance matrix. Objective : to reduce the dimension from N assets to k factors Principal components (PC) serve as factors First PC : (normalised) linear combination of asset returns with maximum variance Second PC : (normalised) linear combination of asset returns with maximum variance of all combinations orthogonal to the first component

27 Pro and Cons of Principal Component Analysis
Advantage : Allows for time-varying factor risk premium Easy to compute Disadvantage : interpretation of the principal components, statistical approach

28 Summary APT alternative approach to explain asset pricing
Factor model requiring fewer assumptions than CAPM Based on concept of arbitrage portfolio Interpretation : lamba’s are difficult to interpret, no economics about the factors and factor weightings.

29 References Cuthbertson, K. and Nitzsche, D. (2004) ‘Quantitative Financial Economics’, Chapters 7 Cuthbertson, K. and Nitzsche, D. (2001) ‘Investments : Spot and Derivatives Markets’, Chapter 10.5 (The Arbitrage Pricing Theory)


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