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© 2014 Crain Communications Inc. The Recruitment Industry 2020 How will the Industry and Job Boards Evolve? John Nurthen Executive Director, Global Research.

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Presentation on theme: "© 2014 Crain Communications Inc. The Recruitment Industry 2020 How will the Industry and Job Boards Evolve? John Nurthen Executive Director, Global Research."— Presentation transcript:

1 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. The Recruitment Industry 2020 How will the Industry and Job Boards Evolve? John Nurthen Executive Director, Global Research

2 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Agenda The Recruitment Industry The Job Board Industry Key Trends

3 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Staffing Market Foundations 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Belgium Hong Kong India Switzerland Brazil UK US Netherlands France Australia Ireland Germany Sweden Japan Italy Source: Staffing Industry Analysts

4 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. South America Africa & Middle East Europe Asia Pacific Source: Staffing Industry Analysts North America Countries and regions are to scale Global Staffing Market Revenue of €304bn in 2013

5 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. US CA BR SA JP AU NL IN Source: Staffing Industry Analysts CH CN UK FR IT DE BE Countries and regions are to scale Global Staffing Market Revenue of €304bn in 2013

6 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Europe: Mostly a Commercial Staffing Market Source: Staffing Industry Analysts Professional/Commercial Temporary Staffing Mix 2013

7 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Largest Global Staffing Firms by 2013 Revenue Company HQ Country 2013 Revenue €m Market Share % Prior year RankListed 1AdeccoCH19,509.36.1%1Y 2RandstadNL16,568.35.2%2Y 3ManpowerGroupUS15,014.14.7%3Y 4AllegisUS7,865.32.5%4 5RecruitJP4,635.61.5%5 6HaysUK4,345.81.4%6Y 7Kelly ServicesUS4,077.11.3%7Y 8Robert HalfUS2,799.70.9%9Y 9USG PeopleNL2,254.00.7%8Y 10TempstaffJP2,029.00.6%10Y 11Express Employment ProfessionalsUS1,839.70.6%12 InsperityUS1,581.70.5%13Y ADP (Automatic Data Processing)US1,565.80.5%20 14The Select Family of CompaniesUS1,526.50.5%15 SynergieFR1,519.70.5%19Y 16Volt Information SciencesUS1,430.90.5%14Y 17ImpellamUK1,421.50.4%17Y 18PasonaJP1,413.60.4%11Y 19Skilled GroupAU1,317.20.4%18Y 20Groupe CritFR1,299.80.4%21Y Source: Staffing Industry Analysts

8 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Largest Listed Staffing Firms by Market Cap Source: Staffing Industry Analysts CompanyCompany Website HQ Country Market Cap (€ Million) at 1 October 2014* Change 2014/2013 (1 October) 1Recruitwww.recruit-rgf.comJP14,055- 2Adeccowww.adecco.comCH9,555-6.9% 3Randstadwww.randstad.comNL6,534-12.4% 4Robert Halfwww.roberthalf.comUS5,16421.8% 5ManpowerGroupwww.manpowergroup.comUS4,262-4.7% 6Hayswww.haysplc.comUK2,054-1.0% 7Tempstaffwww.tempstaff.co.jpJP1,86739.5% 8Page Groupwww.page.comUK1,693-12.6% 9On Assignmentwww.onassignment.comUS1,123-19.8% 10Korn/Ferrywww.kornferry.comUS95115.4% 11Brunel Internationalwww.brunel.nlNL904-6.9% 12TrueBluewww.trueblue.comUS7881.9% 13Meitecwww.meitec.co.jpJP77714.4% 14USG Peoplewww.usgpeople.comNL74524.1% 15SThreewww.sthree.comUK5671.8% 16AMN Healthcarewww.amnhealthcare.comUS55714.7% 17Insperitywww.insperity.comUS541-29.3% 18Kforcewww.kforce.comUS4884.5% 19Groupe Critwww.groupe-crit.comFR46859.6% 20Kelly Serviceswww.kellyservices.comUS454-27.6% *Recruit Market Cap based on closing day of IPO, 16 October 2014

9 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. A New Wave of M&A? Adcorp Air Energi DPA Group Groupe Crit Impellam NGS Group PeopleStrong Randstad Recruit Synergie Work Service

10 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Country2014 GDP Forecast 2014 Staffing Market Growth Forecast UK+3.2%+9% Germany+1.4%+8% France+0.4%+3% Netherlands+0.6%+4% Europe+1.4%+8% Japan+0.9%+9% Australia+2.8%+2% Brazil+0.3%-1% South Africa+1.4%+17% USA+2.2%+6% Global+3.3%+6% Staffing Market Forecasts 2015 GDP Forecast 2015 Staffing Market Growth Forecast +2.7%+7% +1.5%+9% +1.0%+4% +1.4%+5% +1.8%+9% +0.8%+9% +2.9%+2% +1.4%+2% +2.3%+16% +3.1%+6% +3.8%+7% Source: Staffing Industry Analysts and IMF

11 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. ‘Big Three’ Growth Trends Average Organic Revenue Trend: Adecco, ManpowerGroup, Randstad (unweighted) Source: Staffing Industry Analysts

12 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. ‘Big Three’ Growth Trends Average Organic Revenue Trend: Adecco, ManpowerGroup, Randstad (unweighted) Q4 = +2.3% Q1 = +4.3% Q2 = +5.2% Source: Staffing Industry Analysts Q3 = +4.2%

13 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Agenda The Recruitment Industry The Job Board Industry Key Trends

14 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Global Job Board Market Estimates for size of the global job board market vary from $27bn to $3bn –Linkedin ‘addressable market’ estimated at $27bn A tenth of the size of the global staffing market at most Digital recruitment up +25% in the UK in 12 months to March 2014* Facing competition from various sources** –Other employment-related websites –Niche career websites targeted at specific verticals –Job aggregator websites –Traditional media companies, including newspapers –Internet portals, search engines and general interest websites such as blogs Sources: *Deloitte, **Monster

15 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Largest Job Boards by Revenue *Our estimates **Acquired by Seek on 21 November 2014 Source: Staffing Industry Analysts Rank Company HQ Country Annual Revenue (USD million) Reporting Period 1 Recruit (Indeed, Rijunabi, Hatalike, etc)* Japan $2,400 Year ending 30/9/14 2 Linkedin (Talent Solutions) US $856 Year ended 31/12/13 3 Monster US $808 Year ended 31/12/13 4 Seek (including Zaopin, JobsDB, Bdjobs, etc) Australia $670 Year ended 30/6/14 5 Gannet Media (Careerbuilder)* US $500 Year ended 31/12/13 6 Axel Springer (Stepstone, Totaljobs, etc)* Germany $350 Year ended 31/12/13 7 51job China $278Year ended 31/12/13 8 Dice US $213 Year ended 31/12/13 9 Craigslist* US $81 Year ended 31/12/13 10 The Ladders* US $80 Year ended 31/12/12 11 InfoEdge India $56 Year ended 31/3/14 12 JobStreet** Malaysia $54 Year ended 31/12/13 13 Beyond US $36 Year ended 31/12/13 14 Jobindex Denmark $25 Year ended 31/12/13 15 Jobs2Careers US $22 Year ended 31/12/13 16 NetJobs Sweden $6 Year ended 31/12/13

16 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. In general, which of the following criteria are most important to your clients with regard to using or renewing your job board’s services? (Select the top 3) Source: The Job Board Doctor, 2014 Top 10 Reasons for Using Job Boards

17 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Which of the following do you see as the most significant threats to your job board in the coming 12 to 24 months? (check all that apply) Source: The Job Board Doctor, 2013 Perceived Threats to Job Boards

18 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Agenda The Recruitment Industry The Job Board Industry Key Trends

19 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. More sophisticated customers expecting more sophisticated solutions

20 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Decentralized Preferred Suppliers Master Vendor Managed Service Provider (MSP) Several suppliers Procurement done on an ad-hoc basis Management done internally Selective set of suppliers selected Contracts in place Service level agreements (SLA’s) in place One supplier (possibly managing second and third tier suppliers) One point of contact Direct cost savings on bill rate and usage Customized SLA’s and process Contingent workforce spend under management One point of contact Direct cost savings on bill rate and usage Customized SLA’s and process Non-compliant spend elimination Total cost of ownership savings More Value Evolving Contingent Workforce Models More Complexity More Work, Slimmer Margins Source: Staffing Industry Analysts

21 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. 2012/2013 Growth in MSP Spend by Country +86% +44% +28% +19% +11% +7% +3% +2% +40% +32% +8% +34% Source: Staffing Industry Analysts

22 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. A Contingent Work World of Complete Information Transparency Perfect information on… Talent availability Skills Employee ratings and reviews Employer ratings and reviews Fit and success in a role Costs and rates Speed and efficiency Sources of talent Worker productivity correlated with what they ate for breakfast!

23 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Decentralized Preferred Suppliers Master Vendor Managed Service Provider (MSP) Several suppliers Procurement done on an ad-hoc basis Management done internally Selective set of suppliers selected Contracts in place Service level agreements (SLA’s) in place One supplier (possibly managing second and third tier suppliers) One point of contact Direct cost savings on bill rate and usage Customized SLA’s and process Contingent workforce spend under management One point of contact Direct cost savings on bill rate and usage Customized SLA’s and process Non-compliant spend elimination Total cost of ownership savings More Value Evolving Contingent Workforce Models More Complexity Source: Staffing Industry Analysts ?

24 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Decentralized Preferred Suppliers Master Vendor Managed Service Provider (MSP) Total Talent Management Several suppliers Procurement done on an ad-hoc basis Management done internally Selective set of suppliers selected Contracts in place Service level agreements (SLA’s) in place One supplier (possibly managing second and third tier suppliers) One point of contact Direct cost savings on bill rate and usage Customized SLA’s and process Contingent workforce spend under management One point of contact Direct cost savings on bill rate and usage Customized SLA’s and process Non-compliant spend elimination Total cost of ownership savings Total workforce spend under management Complete workforce visibility Direct cost savings on bill rate and usage Customized SLA’s and process Non-compliant spend elimination Increased total cost of ownership savings Additional productivity and process savings High degree of value added services More Value Evolving Contingent Workforce Models More Complexity Source: Staffing Industry Analysts

25 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Talent strategy and business alignment Metrics and Analytics Workforce Planning Learning and Development Career and performance management Compensation/Benefits TTM Integrates Traditional Talent Employment and Non Employee Labour Traditional employees Talent Acquisition Modes Recruiters, Direct Hire, RPO Managed By: HR Outsourced services Contingent Temps, IC, SOW & Internal stretch Agencies, MSP/VMS, Direct IC Consulting & Outsourcing Firms Managed By: HR and ProcurementManaged By: Procurement Source: Staffing Industry Analysts

26 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Foreign Citizens in Europe by Country Source: Eurostat, March 2012 Percentage Foreign Citizens

27 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Foreign Citizens in Europe by Country Source: Eurostat, March 2012 Percentage Foreign Citizens

28 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. EU27 Population with/without Immigration Source: Eurostat 540m 520m 500m 480m 460m 440m 420m 400m 20082012201620202024202820322036204020442048205220562060 With migrationWithout migration Decline starts 2012 Decline starts 2035 Without Immigration European Population Would Already be in Decline

29 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. The Human Cloud

30 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. The Human Cloud Landscape How the Work is Organised Specific Worker(s) “A Crowd” What the Client Gets Labour Relationship Service Output Crowdsourcing Online Staffing Online Services freelancer.com Elance-oDesk Task Rabbit FieldNation Work Market CrowdFlower LionBridge Innocentive 99Design LiveOps Rev OnForce Peopleperhour Gigwalk Amazon Turk Chaordix WikiStrat Source: Staffing Industry Analysts

31 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. A New Generation of Online Staffing Providers Global Focus Local Focus Restaurant Workers, Field Service Techs, Day Labourers…. Onsite Work Software Developers, Creative Designers, Writers, Editors, Translators… Remote/Virtual Work Source: Staffing Industry Analysts

32 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Online Staffing Platforms by Country Started A Global Market Dominated by China and US Source: Staffing Industry Analysts 196 Online Staffing firms in operation globally Net4Manpower Freelance Students MBA and Company Freelancer Market OfficeCalvary Geek Freelancers MyTaskAngel elevated direct Total Freelance PeoplePerHour

33 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Coming to an Office Near You 47% of all US jobs lost to automation in the next 10 to 20 years Source: Frey and Osborne

34 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Impact of Automation on the US Staffing Industry Staffing Segment Probability of Computerization Office/Clerical0.814 Industrial0.796 Commercial0.802 Finance & Accounting0.845 Clinical/Scientific0.413 Marketing/Creative0.364 Other Professional0.346 IT0.278 Legal0.275 Education0.252 Healthcare0.242 Engineering/Design0.233 Professional/Specialty0.327 TOTAL TEMPORARY STAFFING0.719 Source: Staffing Industry Analysts

35 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Source: Staffing Industry Analysts Implications for the Staffing Industry? Some will harness technology to develop human-machine hybrid delivery models New jobs will be created as others are lost –Demand for contingent work to increase in the short to medium term due to business disruption/uncertainty –Those staffing firms that don’t pay enough attention to the implication of the shifting demand for skills will become extinct The role of the agency recruiter will fundamentally change

36 © 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Summary 2015 growth easing (with higher risks) Economic uncertainty continuing (but a positive driver for contingent labour) Ongoing service sophistication –Evolving models to help companies manage their contingent labour Staffing firms and job boards face common challenges –Every threat is an opportunity


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