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Insight The Coventry Economy Key Information Insight August 2014 www.facts-about-coventry.com.

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Presentation on theme: "Insight The Coventry Economy Key Information Insight August 2014 www.facts-about-coventry.com."— Presentation transcript:

1 Insight The Coventry Economy Key Information Insight August 2014

2 Context Demographics Deprivation in Coventry Current economic picture in Coventry Production and growth – Gross Value AddedProduction and growth Productivity Disposable Household Income Earnings of people in work Structure of the Coventry economy – employment by industryStructure of the Coventry economy Number of businesses Enterprise – new business formation, business closuresEnterprise Coventry City Centre – footfall & empty shopsCoventry City Centre Labour Market – Employment & unemployment, Jobseekers Updated (August 2014), out-of-work benefits Updated (August 2014)Labour MarketJobseekers out-of-work benefits Qualifications Click on an item to go directly to that content, alternatively scroll through the slides All data is current and up to date as of August 2014 Contents

3 ▼ indicates Coventry rate lower than comparator ▲ indicates Coventry rate higher than comparator ● indicates Coventry rate no different to comparator Black and Minority Ethnic includes all ethnic groups except White British *General Fertility Rate = number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 **The ethnic group categories have changed marginally for 2011 Census. In particular ‘Chinese’ is now categorised under ‘Asian / Asian British’ – previously it was in the ‘Other’ category. The next update of this information is due in July 2015 Back to Contents page Demographics Coventry West Midlands Region EnglandPeriod Population and Age Total population 329,800 5,642,60053,493, Average age (all residents) 3440▼ ▼ 2013 % aged %19.5%. 19.0%▲ 2013 % aged (working age) 65.6%62.7 %▲63.8%▲ 2013 % aged %17.7%▼17.3%▼ 2013 Birth rates Number of births 4,495 71, , Fertility rate* (15-44) ▼ Ethnicity ― % White British66.6%79.2%▼79.8%▼ 2011 % Black and Minority Ethnic33.4%20.8% ▲ 20.2% ▲ 2011 ― % Other White7.2%3.6%▲5.7%▲ 2011 ― % Mixed2.7%2.4%▲2.2%▲ 2011 ― % Asian / Asian British**16.3%10.8%▲7.7%▲ 2011 ― % Black / Black British5.5%3.2%▲3.4%▲ 2011 ― % Other1.6%0.9%▲1.0%▲ 2011

4 Deprivation in Coventry Index of Multiple Deprivation This uses data from 2008 so measures deprivation just before the recession hit Coventry became slightly more deprived between 2005 and 2008 relative to other local authorities 50 th most deprived local authority (56 th in 2005) Income and employment deprivation most stark in Coventry, no change in this type of deprivation Deprivation pattern within Coventry is broadly the same. Familiar picture, concentrated in the North East Canley in particular became relatively more deprived, as did Tile Hill North and Radford. Stoke Aldermoor and North Holbrooks became less deprived, as did NDC area, modestly Source: Indices of Deprivation 2010, Department for Communities and Local Government The next update of this information is due in summer No date set Back to Contents page See map on Facts about CoventryFacts about Coventry See report on Facts about CoventryFacts about Coventry

5 Gross Value Added Gross Value Added (GVA) is a high level indicator of the general heath of the local economy. It measures the amount Coventry workplaces contribute to the UK economy Increases in total Coventry GVA and GVA per head between 2011 and 2012 indicates a local recovery over that period Total GVA in Coventry for 2012 was estimated to be £6.13bn, a notable increase from £5.75bn in 2011, £5.80bn in 2010 and £5.50bn in GVA per head is a measure that puts total output of an area in context according to its size. GVA per head in Coventry in 2012 was £18,978, 13% lower than the national average. GVA per head in Coventry is higher than it was at its recessionary low in 2009; after a fall between 2008 and 2009 it has fluctuated up and down since then Between 2008 and 2012 GVA per head in Coventry has grown modestly by 3% in total, similar to the national growth over that period GVA per head had been flat for some pre recession years. In 2012 it was at about the same level as it was in 2005 In 1997 GVA per head was higher than the national average but has grown since then by only 34% compared to 68% nationally GVA per head is higher in Coventry than in areas considered appropriate to compare with (CIPFA statistical neighbours), see the charts below. Long term growth in these areas has been a little faster however, closing the gap Source: Office for National Statistics Back to Contents page

6 Gross Value Added per head The next update of this information is due December 2014 Back to Contents page Source: Gross Value Added (Income Based) by NUTS3 areas, ONS December 2013

7 Gross Value Added per head The next update of this information is due December 2014 Back to Contents page Source: Gross Value Added (Income Based) by NUTS3 areas, ONS December 2013

8 Productivity Gross Value Added (GVA) per head puts the output of an area in context given its population size. It is not considered to be the best measure of the productivity of its businesses because it doesn't account for differing patterns of commuting, and differing employment and unemployment rates between different areas Productivity at workplaces in a particular area is most accurately estimated using different indicators; GVA per filled job and GVA per hour worked The data gives an indication that productivity at workplaces in Coventry was slightly higher than the UK average in 2004 but has been falling progressively further behind the UK since 2004, up to Much of this fall occurred up to 2008, before the national economic downturn. There has been a stabilisation in Coventry's productivity relative to the UK between 2011 and 2012 In 2012 GVA per hour worked in Coventry was 12.5% lower than the UK average In 2004 productivity at Coventry workplaces was notably higher than in Birmingham and Warwickshire but has fallen to be lower than those areas The industrial structure of Coventry's economy has changed since 2004; this may have contributed to the pattern of falling productivity relative to the UK Back to Contents page

9 Productivity Back to Contents page

10 Disposable Household Income Disposable income is the amount of money a household has available to spend or save after income is redistributed through measures such as taxes and benefits Put broadly, it is the amount of money available to domestic households – it totaled £4.3bn across all Coventry households in 2012 compared to a total GVA of £6.1bn The 2012 Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) per head for Coventry was £13,374, below that of Warwickshire (£17,782), the UK average (£16,791) and the average for all metropolitan districts (£14,120). Between 2011 and 2012 Coventry growth was 1.8%, lower than the national average of 3.3% Back to Contents page

11 Disposable Household Income Over the last decade GDHI per head in Coventry has grown slower than it has in Warwickshire and the UK overall, having seen a 32% increase between 2001 and 2012 compared to 40% and 41% respectively Between 2008 and 2012 Coventry GDHI per head grew by 12%, similar to the Warwickshire growth rate and national average growth Annual growth rates in Coventry’s household income per head have slowed since 2010 Real household disposable income (RDHI) is gross disposable income adjusted for the effects of inflation. In 2010 Coventry residents had the same average real household disposable income as in 2005, although they were worse off between 2006 and 2008 Back to Contents page

12 Gross Disposable Household Income The next update of this information is due June 2015 Source: Regional Gross Disposable Household Income 2012, Office for National Statistics Back to Contents page

13 Real Disposable Household Income The next update of this information is due: date unknown Source: Regional Gross Disposable Household Income 2010, Office for National Statistics Back to Contents page

14 Earnings of people in work The average (median) annual wage in 2013 (before tax) of all people who work in Coventry was estimated to be £24,800, 15% higher than the average for all Coventry residents - £21,500 These groups overlap of course but many people commute into Coventry to work. Net commuting to Coventry increased between 2012 and 2013 Those who work in Coventry, on average, earn an estimated 11% more than the England average of £22,200 Starting from a lower base, the average annual growth in earnings between 2008 and 2012 for residents of Coventry was higher than the average growth amongst those who work in Coventry and higher than the England average. The significant increase in the average earnings of Coventry workers between 2012 and 2013 (estimated around 9%) now means the average workplace wage growth has outstripped the average amongst residents This analysis does not account for the effect of inflation on the spending power of earnings. In general prices have been rising faster than earnings in recent years Back to Contents page

15 Earnings of people in work The next update of this information is due: December 2014 Back to Contents page

16 Employment by industry The largest broad sector of the Coventry economy is public administration, education and health which employs approximately 48,500 people in Coventry, about a third of all employment. Employment in this sector increased between 2011 and 2012 particularly due to employment growth in secondary education, higher education, ‘general public administration’ and hospital activities In recent years manufacturing has seen a slow decline after significant reductions in manufacturing employment experienced in the 1990s and 2000s before the recession. In 2012 manufacturing made up about 10% of employment in the city (England 8%), down from around 25% in However 2012 appears to have stemmed the decline with around 200 more manufacturing jobs than in 2011 – particularly a result of growth in the automotive sector Back to Contents page

17 Employment by industry The banking, finance and insurance sector grew significantly between 1998 and 2008, employing an increasing number of people in Coventry. This sector continued to grow between 2009 and 2012, more slowly than previously. It makes up 20% of all employment at Coventry workplaces compared to an England average of 22% The construction industry employed around 3,000 people in Coventry in 2012 making up 2% of all employment compared to 4.5% across England on average. Employment has fallen in this industry in recent years particularly due to losses in specialist construction activities like joinery and electrical installation Back to Contents page

18 Employment by industry – Coventry workplaces Source: ONS Business Register and Employment survey 2012, NOMIS The next update of this information is due: October 2014 Back to Contents page

19 Employment by industry This data must not be compared to the data on the next slide, they are from different sources The next update of this information is due: October 2014 Back to Contents page

20 Employment by industry Source: Annual Business Inquiry , NOMIS Back to Contents page

21 Number of businesses Year Number of new business start- ups in Coventry Number of business closures in Coventry 20041, , , , , , , , ,090 1,005 Source for data table: Business Demography 2012; ONS In 2013 an estimated 7,405 businesses were active in Coventry (this does not include multiple branches of the same enterprise)*. Three quarters of these are small businesses employing fewer than 5 people The number of new businesses in Coventry in 2012 continued to be greater than the number of closures and so the total number if businesses operating in the city increased However, 2012 saw a minor fall in the number of formations and a minor increase in closures, so the rate of growth slowed a little Back to Contents page The next update of this information is due: December 2014 * Source: UK Business: Activity, Size And Location ; ONS. The source for this figure is different from the source used for figures reported in previous editions.

22 New business formation An estimated 1,090 new business registered in Coventry in 2012, a similar number to The rate of business formation stabilised in 2012 after an increasing trend over the previous two years The rate is 42 new businesses per 10,000 adults, compared to the England average of 55. The Coventry rate is very similar to the average for other metropolitan areas Post recession, the rate of business formation in Coventry is still however 11% lower than 2008 levels. This fall was experienced between 2008 and 2009 with some recovery since This is compared to a drop of 2% across England overall and 3% on average amongst all metropolitan areas Back to Contents page

23 Business formation The next update of this information is due: December 2014 Back to Contents page Source: Business Demography 2012; ONS

24 Business closures An estimated 1,005 Coventry businesses closed during 2012, a similar number to 2011 The rate of closure is still higher than it was in However closures have become increasingly less common every year since 2009, the recessionary peak The rate is 39 businesses closures per 10,000 adults, compared to the England average of 52. The Coventry rate is also a little lower than the average for other metropolitan areas – the business population of Coventry is growing a little faster than it is on average across other similar areas With lower rates of business formation and also lower rates of business closure, Coventry has a business population than changes a little slower than on average across England, there is less ‘churn’ Back to Contents page

25 Business closures The next update of this information is due: December 2014 Back to Contents page Source: Business Demography 2012; ONS

26 City Centre Footfall In the financial year ending 31 st March 2014 Coventry City Centre footfall was up 0.4% compared to the previous financial year Nationally footfall was down by slightly by 0.2% on average over the same period There are variations in the trend of footfall between different areas of the City Centre Back to Contents page The next updates of this information are due: October 2014 and January 2015

27 City Centre Void Units During the last quarter, quarter , the number of empty shops decreased by 2 to a total of 55, with 7 new voids and 5 newly occupied units This is a continuation of a falling trend in the number of empty units since it peaked at a high level of 65 in q The rate of vacancies is higher than the national average. The national vacancy rate was last available for the first quarter of The vacancy rate in Coventry in q was 14.7% of prime retail ground floor units compared to 11.0% nationally Back to Contents page The next updates of this information are due: October 2014 and January 2015 See detailed report on Facts about CoventryFacts about Coventry

28 Labour Market April 2013 – March 2014 data The working age residents of Coventry (aged 16 – 64) make up about two thirds of the total population. About two thirds (66%) of working age residents of Coventry are in employment, lower than the national average employment rate of 72% The relatively high inactivity rate, partly due to Coventry being resident to many students, is one reason why the employment rate is low The employment rate of 66% is down from 71% in 2007 before the recession; around 5,000 fewer in employment About 137,900 people are in employment, 12,300 are unemployed and 62,500 people are economically inactive (e.g. long term sick, full time student, looking after family / home etc.) While the employment rate is still lower than it was before the recession, there are some indications of recovery in Coventry. We await future survey results for confirmation of a consistent trend of recovery. Inconsistent patterns in the changing levels of economic activity may be affecting the recovery in the number of residents in employment The total number of jobs based at Coventry workplaces has increased since the recession – but the employment rate amongst residents is not recovering as consistently – more commuters Unemployment is still higher than pre-recession levels, as is economic inactivity amongst residents (partly due to increasing student numbers). Back to Contents page Source: ONS Annual Population Survey April 2013 – March 2014, NOMIS

29 Labour Market The next updates of this information are due: October 2014 and January 2015 Back to Contents page

30 Unemployment The official unemployment rate estimates the number of people who are out of work and have actively sought work in the last 4 weeks. It is measured using a survey, the Labour Force Survey Using this definition, an estimated 12,300 Coventry residents aged 16+ are unemployed (Apr – Mar. 2014); an unemployment rate of 8.1% of the economically active population compared to the England average of 7.1%. This rate should not be compared to the JSA rate The recently published data gives an indication that unemployment amongst residents has been on downward trend recently Back to Contents page

31 Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) The Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimant count is not a direct measure of unemployment although it has historically been used as an up to date indicator of the changing unemployment level. However it can no longer be considered a reliable way of monitoring unemployment because of the changing conditions for claiming the benefit and the current regime of sanctions which is causing some claimants to stop their claim. It is not possible to know how much of the reducing trend in JSA is due to a falling level of unemployment and how much is due to the changing way it is being administered. 6,613 claimants of Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in July 2014, a large reduction from July The seasonally adjusted JSA claimant rate is 3.1% of the working age population (July 2014). The JSA claimant count peaked at 11,570, 5.8% in October 2009 JSA rate in July 2014 (seasonally adjusted); 2.5% across UK, 3.0% across the West Midlands region and 1.4% in Warwickshire It now seems that the falling trend in the claimant count has been greatly a result of people stopping claiming due to the new regime of sanctions (for not complying with conditions) introduced in October and less so a result of falling unemployment amongst residents Back to Contents page Read about JSA sanctions on Facts about CoventryFacts about Coventry

32 JSA trends By July 2014, the Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimant rate amongst Coventry residents was continuing on its steeply downward trend, reaching 6,613 claimants There was a fall in the claimant count in the month between June and July 2014 – 139 fewer claimants in July At the end of 2013 the overall claimant count in the city dipped below 8,000 residents for the first time since the end of The seasonally adjusted JSA count has been on a broadly downward trend from the end of 2011 The claimant count is now about 2,500 (28%) lower than it was at the same time last year – although this is a slightly slower rate of decrease than the national average (30%) The claimant count in Coventry is now at about the same level it was at pre-recession – although we know overall unemployment is still higher than pre-recession levels It now seems that the falling trend in the claimant count has been greatly a result of people stopping claiming due to the new regime of sanctions (for not complying with conditions) introduced in October and less so a result of falling unemployment amongst residents Back to Contents page See JSA report on Facts about CoventryFacts about Coventry Read about JSA sanctions on Facts about CoventryFacts about Coventry

33 Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimant count trends Back to Contents page July 2013: JSA rates for all periods in the chart have been adjusted as a result of a change in the working age population denominator. In light of the Census 2011 results, revised population estimates for 2002 – 2010 were published by the ONS. July 2014: new mid-year population estimates for 2013 were released which have been used to calculate the rates from Jan onwards. Updates for this statistic are published by the ONS on a monthly basis

34 JSA claimant count Source: Jobseeker’s Allowance claimant count, ONS, NOMIS Updates for this statistic are published by the ONS on a monthly basis See map report on Facts about CoventryFacts about Coventry Back to Contents page

35 Total out of work benefits claimants On average there were 26,600 people claiming an out of work benefit during the period April 2013-March 2014, 12.3% of the working age population (metropolitan areas average 14.3%, England average 10.5%). This is a significant fall of 500 claimants compared to the last period, the year ending December 2013 This mainly includes Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants, Incapacity Benefit or Employment and Support Allowance claimants and lone parents claiming Income Support In Coventry the significant fall in the total number claiming out of work benefits between 2010 and 2012 was one of the largest falls in the country, much larger than the average for metropolitan areas. However, there was not clearly an increase in employment amongst residents in that time; there are an increasing number of residents who do not have a regulat income for paid work or out-of-work benefits This falling trend has continued since 2012, although the 2012 to 2014 fall has not been exceptional compared to other local authorities There has been a falling trend in the claimant count for all main benefits. This falling trend has been seen most significantly in the JSA claimant count and in a sustained reduction in the number of lone parents claiming Income Support. Eligibility criteria for lone parents to claim Income Support has been gradually changed in recent years. Welfare reform in general is influencing the trends The % of Coventry residents who claim out of work benefits is now lower than it was before the recession Back to Contents page

36 Key out-of-work benefits claimants - % Source: DWP Work and Pensions longitudinal study, NOMIS The next updates of this information are due: November 2014 See map report on Facts about CoventryFacts about Coventry July 2013: All benefit claimant rates for all periods in the chart have been adjusted as a result of a change in the working age population denominator. In light of the Census 2011 results, revised population estimates for 2002 – 2010 were published by the ONS. July 2014: new mid-year population estimates for 2013 were released which have been used to calculate the rates from Jan onwards. Total Other Lone Parents Incapacity Benefits / ESA JSA Back to Contents page

37 Qualifications of residents It is estimated that 30% of working age residents of Coventry have higher level qualifications, those equivalent to or higher than a foundation degree. This is similar to the regional average but lower than the national average (35%) and lower than Warwickshire (39%) 16% have no qualifications, higher than the England average (9%) Back to Contents page

38 Qualifications Source: ONS Annual Population Survey Jan 2013 – Dec 2013, NOMIS The next update of this information is due: April 2015 See map report on Facts about CoventryFacts about Coventry Back to Contents page

39 Sources Population by age – Mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics (ONS)Mid-year population estimates Birth rates - Birth summary tables, England and Wales 2013 (final), Office for National StatisticsBirth summary tables, England and Wales 2013 (final) Population by ethnic group - Census 2011, Office for National StatisticsCensus 2011 Deprivation in Coventry - Index of Multiple Deprivation, Department for Communities & Local Government Gross Value Added - Regional Gross Value (Income Approach), Office for National StatisticsRegional Gross Value (Income Approach), Productivity - Gross Value Added per hour worked, Office for National Statistics Disposable Household Income - Regional Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI), Office for National StatisticsRegional Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI), Earnings of people in work - Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, ONS, Survey of Hours and Earningswww.nomisweb.co.uk Employment by industry - Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES), ONS, Register and Employment Survey Number of businesses - UK Business: Activity, Size and Location – 2013, Office for National StatisticsUK Business: Activity, Size and Location – 2013 Business formation & closures - Business Demography, Office for National StatisticsBusiness Demography City Centre Footfall - Insight, Coventry City Council, & Experian Footfall City Centre Void Units - Insight, Coventry City Council & Springboard Labour Market - Annual Population Survey, ONS, Population Surveywww.nomisweb.co.uk Unemployment - Annual Population Survey, ONS & JSA claimant count, Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimant count - Office for National Statistics & Jobcentre Plus, Total out of work benefits claimants - Work & Pensions Longitudinal Study, DWP, & Pensions Longitudinal Studywww.nomisweb.co.uk Qualifications - Annual Population Survey, ONS, Population Surveywww.nomisweb.co.uk Back to Contents page

40 Insight Back to Contents page


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