2EUROPEAN CAPITAL MARKETS AND INVESTOR INTENTIONS 2014 Dr Peter Damesick Chairman EMEA Research12 March 2014
3Global Commercial real estate Investment $ billionChange 2013 vs 2012Americas+16.5%EMEA+34.3%Asia Pacific+28.0%Source: CBRE Research, RCA; * All commercial real estate and hotelsRepresent as graph above
4Cross-regional global capital boosts European real estate investment € billionSource: CBRE ResearchRepresent graph as above- perhaps the bars appear first and then the line afterwards
5Global real estate investment in Europe Market distribution, % total purchasesSource: CBRE ResearchAll of the 2012 information appears first and then the 2013 information appears.
6Cross-regional global capital Flows in Europe 2013 by Market€ billionSource: CBRE ResearchRepresent graph as above
7Commercial real estate Investment In UK £53 billion transacted in 2013 – £21 billion in just Q4£ billionSource: Property Data, CBRE ResearchThe only thing that we would like to happen here is that we animate the last bar – Q3 2013
8Commercial Property Investment in Euro Periphery Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy€ millionSource: CBRE ResearchRepresent graph as above – can we add a new slide after this one that states:Investor Intentions Survey Results 2014
9Europe’s fastest growing investment markets in 2013 Cities with biggest relative increases in sales 2013 vs 2012Source: CBRE Research
11Survey respondents by type of organisation Source: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2014
12Which global region is most preferred for investment? Source: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2014Show 2013 first and then 2014
13Investing outside Europe in 2014? Source: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2014For this can we use an animated pie chart starting with – yes less than 2013’, then Yes, same amount as in 2013, then Yes, more than in 2013, and finally No appearing.Yes less than 2013 – 5%Yes, same amount as in 2013 – 11.2%Yes, more than in 2013 – 19.6%No – 64.2%
14Investment outside Europe on 2014: Which Regions? Percentage of respondents who will invest outside Europe78%52%24%21%17%5%4%North AmericaDeveloped AsiaEmerging AsiaPacificSouth AmericaAfricaMiddle East* Respondents could choose more than one regionSource: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2014Perhaps we could use a heat map here – starting with the largest.
15Asia pacific investors: where will they invest globally in 2014? Percentage of respondents who will invest outside Asia Pacific68%Western EuropeNorth America57%Central and Eastern Europe23%South America8%Africa2%Middle East2%* Respondents could choose more than one regionSource: CBRE Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey 2014Perhaps we could use a heat map here – starting with the largest.
16Most attractive country in Europe for investment purchases Source: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2014All of 2013 information appearing and then 2014 information follows.
17Most attractive city for investment purchases DublinRise in attractiveness of Spanish citiesSource: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2014All of 2013 information appearing and then 2014 information follows.The key point here is that Madrid and Barcelona are now extremely attractive – perhaps we could circle?Also highlight Munich and Hamburg.
18Most preferred sector for investment purchases StrongerpreferenceSource: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2014All of 2013 information appearing and then 2014 information follows.Again, circling the decline in Logistics, Shopping centres,Light industrial and retail warehouses. (Eleanor – Light industrial doesn’t decrease)
19Top 3 ‘most attractive’ for purchases in 2014 CountriesCitiesSectors1.UK29%2.Germany21%3.Spain19%1.London30%2.Madrid14%3.Berlin9%1.Offices39%2.Logistics16%3.Shopping centres11%Source: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2014
20Most preferred asset type for purchases 20132014Source: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2014All of 2013 information appearing and then 2014 information follows.
21Risk appetite for secondary assets in 2014 compared with last year 49%Source: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2014Spelling of ‘Much Lower ‘ is incorrect – can you please amend.Represent graph as above
22Most preferred asset type for purchases Percent of investors by global region, 2014Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey 2014
23Investment and interest in alternative sectors InvestedActively interestedSource: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2014Split the screen in two – on one side show the actively interested details and on the other what has been “invested” in already – start with Invested on the left had sideActively interested:Student living – 12%Retirement living – 10%Healthcare – 9%Infrastructure – 9%Self Storage – 5%Leisure – 3%Automotive /car parks – 3%INVESTED IN:Leisure – 27%Student living – 25%Retirement living – 12%Healthcare – 17%Automotive /car parks – 17%Infrastructure – 14%Self Storage – 7%
24Expected purchasing activity this year compared with last year 67% of respondents said purchasing activity would be higher in 2014Source: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2014Represent as is – perhaps adding a circle to the first 3 bars for 2013 and 2014 indicating that a total of 67% purchasing activity will be higher
25What is the biggest obstacle to acquiring assets in Europe? 82% of investors cited these 3 obstaclesSource: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2014
26What is greatest threat to European property markets? 62% of investors pick one of these threatsSource: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2014Represent as is
27What effect would UK exit from EU have on Uk’s attractiveness for investment? Source: CBRE European Investor intentions Survey 2014Represent as graph above – again perhaps circling the last 2
28Investor intentions Key themes 2014 More confidence in Europe Resurgent interest in SpainInvestors moving up risk curveMost attractive asset types outside prime/coreGreater appetite for secondaryHigher purchasing activity in 2014Markets more crowded and competitivePerception of over-pricing as threat
29Panel discussion lead by Jonathan Hull Managing Director, EMEAChris BrettHead of International Capital Markets, UKMarc GiuffridaExecutive Director, SingaporePeter SchreppelCEO, GermanyAdolfo Ramírez-EscuderoPresident, Spain