Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

The Rise of India in World Trade Chris Callen, Country Manager, DHL Express - Jan 28, 2004.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "The Rise of India in World Trade Chris Callen, Country Manager, DHL Express - Jan 28, 2004."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Rise of India in World Trade Chris Callen, Country Manager, DHL Express - Jan 28, 2004

2 Agenda India‘s International Trade Situation DHL Trade Confidence Index Building “Brand India “ Becoming World Class in India International Logistics

3 India’s International Trade 2002/03  Exports –US $51.7 billion –Growth 18% next only to that of China at 22% second highest among world’s 30 leading exporters in world merchandise trade during the year 2002  Imports –Growth 17.03%  Share of world trade –0.8%

4 Getting Ahead “If the present trend continues, we may reach our often stated goal of achieving 1% of world merchandise trade ahead of the year 2007…” Arun Jaitley Union Minister of Commerce & Industry 31 March, 2003

5 With the rupee rising against the dollar and the global slowdown in world trade over the past few months, is there cause for concern?

6 GDP – Regional comparison  India has recorded one of the highest growth rates in the 1990s  Among the largest economies in the world, its GDP is close to US$ 500 billion  Only China has had GDP growth higher than India

7 Merchandise Exports vs GDP  Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia all export more than India ! 23% 10% 9% 36% 18% 117% 44% 57% 39% 101% 45% 142%

8 India Rising -- Challenges  WTO, Asean Free Trade Agreement (AFTA), Bi- lateral FTAs  Ground Infrastructure  Golden Quadrilateral Highway network  New FTZs and enhanced transhipment facilities  Liberalised air traffic rights  Duty structures – among the world’s highest  Air Express self-handling – elimination of monopolies in statutory service providers

9 Agenda India‘s International Trade Situation DHL Trade Confidence Index Building “Brand India “ Becoming World Class in India International Logistics

10 How do exporters view the situation?

11 All India  The DHL Trade Confidence Index (TCI) at an all-India level is 61 (Q2’- Sep03), up from 58 (Q1- Jun03), driven by a very optimistic 72 points in general demand conditions.  Factors contributing to this movement include optimistic demand conditions, better domestic conditions & optimism about the macro-economic state  The factors where no significant change is seen include Attitude of US Customers, Impact of WTO, Exim Policy & Order Expectations Q1 Q2 DHL Trade Confidence Index  The Exporter view on General Demand conditions, has become more optimistic, with almost 72% rating them as favourable as compared to 53% in the last quarter

12 Apparel Sector  Confidence among Textile / Garment exporters is even higher: The DHL Apparel Trade Confidence Index has moved up to 63 (Q2 - Sep03), from 58 (Q1-Jun03)  Factors contributing to this upward movement include optimistic Demand conditions, better Domestic conditions, optimism about macro-economic state & Policy context …DHL Trade Confidence Index Q1 Q2  Factors that seem to have moved down on confidence include Attitude of US Customers & Impact of NTMs  Optimism in Exporter view of the General Demand Conditions, shown here, has moved up to 80% from 60% in the previous quarter

13 Analysis  So, the DHL Trade Confidence Index moved up by 5% in Q2-Sep03, despite the fact that month on month, export growth began to slacken. Dr Debroy’s view of the possible reasons for this apparently paradoxical finding include: - Time lag in perceptions reacting to objective reality - Better domestic conditions biasing the results - Exporters are unduly optimistic about seasonal demand conditions  The upward movement in our Index can be ascribed more to better domestic economic conditions & this has negated the impact of certain negative developments internationally  But there is no reason to despair… even if we get 8% growth in it will be respectable… and the target of 1% share of global trade appears fairly modest …DHL Trade Confidence Index

14 Agenda India‘s International Trade Situation DHL Trade Confidence Index Building “Brand India “ Becoming World Class in India International Logistics

15 Emerging Trends  Growing cross-border trade –More cross-border production to take advantage of lower costs/new markets –Greater liberalisation of trade policies & tariffs through WTO –Major shift by global companies to source, produce and distribute from emerging economies like India  Greater need for dedicated air express freighters –Less reliance on under- floor space of passenger aircraft & dictated schedules –Enhanced schedules to meet shortened transit times Courier Air Express

16 …Emerging Trends  Challenge of Breaking the Time Barrier Further –Businesses demanding faster and more time-definite deliveries –Need shortest “Time- to- Market” –Shorter Product life cycle  JIT processes and express transport key to supply chain logistics –Lower inventory holdings –Greater outsourcing of logistics services to integrators, 3PL/ 4PLs Air Express Logistics Solutions

17 Agenda India‘s International Trade Situation DHL Trade Confidence Index Building “Brand India “ Becoming World Class in India International Logistics

18 The Path Ahead  Is India is at a point of inflection where it can take a significant share and role in world trade?  “There is no better time to be an Indian in this world”  Two things critical for India to go forward strongly : –Position India as a good place to do business in –Position India as a place for manufacturing excellence  These two are not easy-wins since the task is not one of positioning alone – at least in many key sectors  In marketing terms – India is not at the stage for aggressive ‘branding’ – but a stage for solid ‘product development’  But brand is very important – not at the country level but at the individual company level

19 Branding  What came first : Sony or Japan, LG or Korea ?  Building world-class brands is the responsibility of each and every business – and the country has a smaller role in it  The country responsibility is In making India an easy and good place to do business with ! (whether it is for Indian companies or MNCs)  Infrastructure, labour reforms, primary education, borderless states, debilitating levels of corruption – all of them need to be managed with a far greater urgency.  Individual companies will get enormous opportunities in the world market – as trade barriers topple around the world.

20 Quotas in Apparel & textile Trade  China’s growth has been spectacular in areas where quotas have recently been removed by USA (Source : US Intl. Trade Commission)  For example : –Bras & foundation garments (Category 349/649): 232 % –Knit Fabrics (Category : 222): 21,976 % –Infant wear (Category : 239) : 826 % –Robes and dressing gowns (Category : 350 /650): 540 %  Clearly, as trade regimes liberalise worldwide, new opportunities will open up for businesses which have world class manufacturing excellence with vertically integrated skills!  Don’t bother too much about ‘Brand India’, focus on building world class manufacturing excellence in our individual businesses – grow your own brand!

21 Agenda India‘s International Trade Situation DHL Trade Confidence Index Building “Brand India “ Becoming World Class in India International Logistics

22 Asia-Pacific Logistics Overview Markets Hong Kong Singapore Japan Australia New Zealand Korea Taiwan Mature China Unique Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines India Mid-Level Sub-Continent Vietnam Cambodia Laos Myanmar Etc Developing  Developed Logistics  High Competition  High Service levels  Lead time pressure  Lower Growth  Rapid Development  Undeveloped domestic  Increasing service levels  High Growth  Developing sophistication  Increasing competition  Increasing service levels  Varied Growth  Poorer infrastructure  Lower competition  Customs  Ownership Issues  High Growth Characteristics

23 Building a Strong Infrastructure  Four Gateway Strategy – four state-of-the-art Express Handling Units for seamless self-handling of Air Express shipments at major airports –First 26,000 sq ft facility now operational in New Delhi; only dedicated facility of its kind in India –Similar facilities planned in Mumbai, Chennai and Bangalore  12 Spare Parts Centres across major cities  Modern, technologically superior Service Centres  300-strong fleet of new vehicles, the largest of its kind in India, linked in real time to our data network.  Globally integrated sophisticated IT infrastructure for real time supply chain management and tracking.  24-hour country-wide toll-free customer service call centre.

24 Building a Strong Infrastructure  Like you, many challenges we face are regulatory or bureaucratic – some we have overcome, some we are still battling, most of are unique to India: –On-board-courier –Gateways at Airports –24-hour Customs in-premise –Indian Post Office (Amendment) Bill, 2002  Our investments are significant and we hope to provide the kind of logistics support which is truly world class. We’re getting there.  We are leading the way – we have 70% of the international air express market in India, and over 20,000 exporters and importers in our customer base here !  Invest, excel, promote.

25 nTHANK YOU


Download ppt "The Rise of India in World Trade Chris Callen, Country Manager, DHL Express - Jan 28, 2004."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google