Presentation on theme: "Climate Change: Threats and Opportunities to Sustainable Development From Regional Context and Outcomes of Cop-15 By Khim Lay, Assistant Country Director."— Presentation transcript:
1 Climate Change: Threats and Opportunities to Sustainable Development From Regional Context and Outcomes of Cop-15By Khim Lay, Assistant Country Director and Team LeaderEnvironment and Energy Unit, UNDP Cambodia20-21 January 2010
2 Outline Climate Change Basic: Real or Note, Causes and Impacts Climate Change Vulnerability at regional level (Southeast Asia)Climate Change Impacts on Human Development and Poverty ReductionGlobal Solutions: Outcomes of Cop 15: Challenges and OpportunitiesProposed recommendations: Avoid dangerous climate change and building national readiness
3 Climate Change? GREENHOUSE EFFECT EARTH SUN GREENHOUSE GASES (GHGs) SUNLIGHTIn atmosphere about (8-10 km from earth), there is a Greenhouse gases (GHGs) (Co2, Methan, Ozone). GHGs maintain the earth’s temperature at the mean of 16 C for earth’s life.GHGs act as a blanket to trap the heat from the earth.Increased concentration of GHGs- make the blanket thinker, prevent more heat escaping from the earth into the space.Over the long term period ( years), this phenomena causes the rise of temperature on earth, change the pattern of long term weather conditions - climate change.INFRARED RADIATIONGHGsGHGsGHGsEARTH
4 Climate Change and Ozone Layer Layer of GHGs is about 8-10 km from earth surface while ozone layer is km from earth surface.GHGs: CO2, Methane and OzoneOzone: Oxygen layer consists of oxygen atoms, oxygen gas and ozone gas.Global warming will lead to a weaker Oxon layerOver Antarctica, the Ozone hole is three times the size of the United StatesScientists believe that Global Warming will lead to a weaker Ozone layer, because as the surface temperature rises, the stratosphere (the Ozone layer being found in the upper part) will get colder, making the natural repairing of the Ozone slower.NASA, for example, reports that by 2030, “climate change may surpass chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) as the main driver of overall ozone loss.”The Ozone layer protects all life on Earth from the harmful effects of the Sun’s rays. It has been depleting for many years now. Scientists have said that currently over Antarctica the Ozone hole is three times the size of the United States and growing.Also, according to scientists, more than 60 percent of the ozone layer blanketing the Arctic Circle was lost in the 1999/2000 winter.Also, September 9 to 10, 2000, the ozone hole stretched over a populated city for the first time. It was in Punta Arenas, a southern Chile city of about 120,000 people, exposing residents to very high levels of ultra violet radiation.The ozone depletion has also been correlated with higher levels of cancer in humans and animals.
5 Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get. Day to day status and (short term) changes in the status of the atmosphere in terms of meteorological parameters: rainfall, temperatures, pressure, etc.ClimateAverage weather over a period of time ranging from months to thousand/millions of years.Can be perceived by people (bad, good, cold, warm, rainy, extremes - heat waves, downpours, cold spells)Cannot be perceived – needs science. Concerns the status of the entire Earth system, (atmosphere, land, oceans, snow, ice and living things)Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.
6 Climate Change Is Real or Not? Rising TemperaturesChanges in:- Precipitation & soil evaporation- Sea level- Frequency & intensity of extreme events- Ecosystem distribution & composition
7 Causes of Climate Change Increase in Green House Gases mainly due to human activities such as:Burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) to generate energyLand use change and deforestationThis leads to Greenhouse Effect – increase in GHGs in atmosphere preventing heat to escape into the space, keeping the earth warmer
8 Erosion, inundation, salinisation, stress marshes, wetlands Not just an Environmental Issue – but also Development IssueECOSYSTEMSERVICESLoss of habitat, species and protective ecosystems, changes in forest composition, migratory shiftsWATERRESOURCESVariability in water supply, quality and distribution. More competition and cross-border conflicts over water resourcesAGRICULTURELess predictability in crop yield, changing irrigation demand, growing risk of pest infestationsCOASTALSYSTEMSErosion, inundation, salinisation, stress marshes, wetlandsPUBLICHEALTHIncreasing incidents of infectious, water-borne and vector-borne diseases, heat stress & mortality, additional public health costsSocial stresses, economic losses, increased poverty, Unsustainable Growth
9 Economic Implications Effects are cumulative, irreversible and globalInverse relationship between vulnerability and responsibilityUnequal impact - the poorest people especially at the local community affected the earliest and mostSignificant socio-economic implicationsCost of inaction – estimates vary:Cost of inaction estimatesBy:5-20% of global GDPStern Review, 20061-5% global GDP for 4 C warming (more for developing countries)IPCC, 20076.7% of GDP in four SE Asia countriesADB, 2009The Stern Review – one of the largest, most known and influential report on the economics of climate change – has described climate change as the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.It argued that the annual costs of stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions are likely to be around 2% of global GDP by 2050, while inaction against global warming would lead to a reduction in GDP by 5 to 20%.The 4th Assessment Report of IPCC (2007) also predicted that global mean losses could be 1-5% GDP for 4 degrees Celcius of warming, while developing countries are expected to experience larger percentage of losses.Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
10 Relevance to MDGsMDG GoalsExamples of phenomena aggravated by Climate ChangeFood insecurity, infrastructure loss, reduced agriculture productivity, employment and economic growthLoss of livelihood assets, displacement/migration, cut back access to educationNatural resources depletion, reduced agriculture productivity, etc. additional burdens for womenIncreased vector-borne diseases, heat-related mortality, declining quantity and quality of water supplyNegative impact on quality and productivity of natural resources and ecosystemsClimate change as a global phenomenon calls for a collective responseSource:
11 Composition of Vulnerability Severe climatic events; floods; drought; sea level riseLevel of CC VulnerabilityPopulation density; extent of protected areaClimatic HazardsSensitivityLack of Adaptive CapacitySocio-economic factors: Human Development,poverty, inequality, technology & infrastructure: power supply, irrigation, road, communication, …Adapted from EEPSEA 2009
12 Human and Ecological Sensitivity Map 1. Population density and protected areas
13 Multiple Climate Hazard Map 1. The scale used is 0-1 indicating the lowest vulnerability level (0) to the highest vulnerabilitylevel (1).
14 Adaptive Capacity Map Overall, areas with relatively high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR.Degree to which adjustments are made to mitigate potential damages from CC impacts1. Socio economicHuman development index(standard of living; longevity, education); poverty incidence; income inequality;2. TechnologyElectricity coverage; extent of irrigation system,3. Infrastructureroad density,Communication
15 Climate Change Vulnerability Map Low vulnerability, moderate vulnerability, High vulnerability.So how prepared are we in Southeast Asia to face climate change, which is already happening?According to a recent study by EEPSEA, the region is highly vulnerable to its impacts.Here the vulnerability is measured by looking at degree of risk / exposure to climatic hazards, sensitivity due to population density etc., as well as adaptive capacity of people or society as a composite index of socio-economic factors, technology and infrastructure.Capacity to adapt to climate change and overall climate change vulnerability is closely correlated with the level of development. That means the less a country is developed in socio-economic and human development terms, the more the country is vulnerable to climate change.Note Cambodia’s high vulnerability in this map.Source: Reproduced with permission from EEPSEA. Vulnerability as composite of exposure to climatic hazards, sensitivity to the hazards, and adaptive capacity
16 Outcomes of Copenhagen Cop 15 Seal the deal was not achievedCopenhagen Accord- political statement not a legal binding documentRequest all countries to associate with it by Feb 2010Request for further negotiation to transform it to become a legal biding documentRequest developed countries to set quantified economy-wide emission targets in annex I and developing countries to set nationally appropriate mitigation actions in annex II.
17 Contents of the Copenhagen Accord Recognize CC is one of the greatest challenges of our time, calling for strong political will in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilitiesRecognizing the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius, on the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable developmentCall for international cooperation in achieving the hold of increase of 2 degree Celsius to avoid negative consequences on efforts of social and economic development and poverty eradication of developing countries.Recognize the development of a low-emission development strategy is indispensable to sustainable development.Adaptation is a challenge faced by all countries. Enhanced action and international cooperation on adaptation is urgently required
18 Contents of the Copenhagen Accord (cont.) Agree that developed countries shall provide adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources, technology and capacity-buildingRecognize the crucial role of reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation and the need to enhance removals of greenhouse gas emission by forestsAgree on the need to provide positive incentives to such actions through the immediate establishment of a mechanism including REDD-plus, to enable the mobilization of financial resources from developed countriesDecide to pursue various approaches, including opportunities to use markets, to enhance the cost-effectiveness of, and to promote mitigation actions.
19 Contents of the Copenhagen Accord (cont.) Scaled up, new and additional funding shall be provided to developing countriesThe collective commitment by developed countries is to provide new and additional resources, including forestry and investments of USD 30 billion for the periodDeveloped countries commit to mobilize 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries.A High Level Panel will be established to study the contribution of the potential sources of revenue,Decide that the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund shall be establishedDecide to establish a Technology Mechanism to accelerate technology development and transferCall for an assessment of the implementation of this Accord to be completed by 2015
20 We must avoid dangerous climate change -Reducing the demand on fuel:Use fusil efficiently,Save energy,Promote energy efficiency the buildingClean development mechanismControlling land use change and deforestationMaking forest sustainably managed and used including forest plantationConserving ecosystem and managing protected areas to enhance and conserve carbon stock (REDD plus)Reducing dependency on wood energy and promoting renewable energy technologiesMaking agricultural land use more productiveControlling big land use change and making land use more sustainable to reduce pressures on forest landNational Readiness to promote Reduction Emission from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)
21 Building National Readiness by 2015 and beyond Right public perceptions on CC issuesRight policy and plansRight institutional set up, coordination and effective international and regional cooperationRight programme and decision on investmentBuilding stronger resilience infrastructure and facilityImproving knowledge on science and technologies through formal education, research, sharing and dialogues and technology transfersPolicy performance evaluation and lessons learned
22 “Your planet needs you” UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon THANK YOU!