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Business expectations surveys for the manufacturing Sector Description : This is a forward looking, short term and time sensitive survey. Its results is.

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Presentation on theme: "Business expectations surveys for the manufacturing Sector Description : This is a forward looking, short term and time sensitive survey. Its results is."— Presentation transcript:

1 Business expectations surveys for the manufacturing Sector Description : This is a forward looking, short term and time sensitive survey. Its results is measured by weighted balances Data requirement : An updated list of ‘sectoral’ establishments with significant contribution to the ‘sector’ in terms of output and value added. Data sources : 1. The latest Census of Manufacturing Activities results 2. Sample establishments

2 Business expectations surveys for the manufacturing Sector The variables needed are : Output, Value Added, No of Workers Industrialists feedback Sampling issues : Selection of establishments : All selected establishments represent about 75% of value added and 50% employment at total manufacturing level Issues : As the intent of this survey is to get quick feedback for the major contributors of each industry so as to reflect the short term future trend for the manufacturing sector. Some small and medium enterprises are not covered. This caused somedissatisfactions from the industry associations and some research institutions.

3 Business expectations surveys for the manufacturing Sector Indicators used in the calculation General Business situation Factors affecting ability to obtain orders Investment plans Employment Overtime work Orders received Output Sales Profit Cost

4 Business expectations surveys for the manufacturing Sector Sample form : https://venus.edb.gov.sg/bem/bemform.pdf

5 Business expectations surveys for the manufacturing Sector Selection of Establishments All Establishments Industry V A%Output%Employment%No of Est% $'mil ( No ) Ind A Ind B Ind C Ind D Ind E Ind X Total

6 Business expectations surveys for the manufacturing Sector Selection of Establishments Selected sample Firms V A%Output%Employment%No of Est% Industry $'mil ( No ) Ind A Ind B Ind C Ind D Ind E Ind X Total % Over all

7 Business expectations surveys for the manufacturing Sector Weights Calculation Weights are calculated at establishment level, of course you may aggregated to industry, industry cluster and total manufacturing level. In Singapore’s case, VA and employment are both take up 50% form the total weight of a company

8 Business expectations surveys for the manufacturing Sector Calculation of net balances Industry AWeightsUpSameDownN/A A A A A Total A % Net Weighted Balance 25 Net Weighted % 22.7

9 Business expectations survey for the manufacturing Sector Calculation of net balances Industry BWeightsUpSameDownN/A B B B B Total B % Net Weighted Balance -5 Net Weighted % -5.6

10 Business expectations survey for the manufacturing Sector interpretation of net balances The net weighted balance is commonly used to reflect the direction and extent of the business sentiments. It is the difference between the weighted percentage of 'up' responses and the weighted percentage of 'down' responses. For example, if weighted responses for overall manufacturing output yields a net weighted balance of +30 per cent, the plus sign before the percentage figure indicates a positive balance or net upward movement, and not a 30 per cent increase in output. Similarly, a minus sign before the percentage indicates a downward trend and not a decline by that amount.


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