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!“Oh meu Deus! Oh meu Deus! Vou chegar tarde!” Coelho Branco Alice no País das Maravilhas

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Presentation on theme: "!“Oh meu Deus! Oh meu Deus! Vou chegar tarde!” Coelho Branco Alice no País das Maravilhas"— Presentation transcript:

1 !“Oh meu Deus! Oh meu Deus! Vou chegar tarde!” Coelho Branco Alice no País das Maravilhas 1

2 XV) Landscape and precipitation in the eastern Amazon Basin II David Fitzjarrald Atmospheric Sciences Research Center University at Albany, SUNY US of A With modeling: Julia Cohen, Universidade Federal de Pará, Brasil Surface network: Ricardo Sakai, Matthew Czikowsky, ASRC, UAlbany Osvaldo Moraes, Otávio Acevedo, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brasil Rodrigo da Silva, Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Brasil 2

3 Explain all that,' said the Mock Turtle. `No, no! The adventures first,' said the Gryphon in an impatient tone: `explanations take such a dreadful time.' Chapter 10, “the Lobster Quadrille” Alice in Wonderland Grifo “Explique o que quer dizer”, disse a Tartaruga Falsa. “Não, não! As aventuras primeiro, disse o Grifo num ton impaciente. “Explicações levam um tempo danado.” Tartaruga Falsa Modelagem! Observaciones! 3

4 “ Well! I've often seen a cat without a grin,” thought Alice; but a grin without a cat! It's the most curious thing I ever saw in my life!” “Bem! Já vi muitas vezes um gato sem sorriso”, pensou Alice, “mas um sorriso sem gato! É da coisa mais curiosa que já vi em toda minha vida.” Gato desde CheshireSensoriamento remoto! 4

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6 Liebman and Allured (BAMS 2005). Daily gridded data made from this station data base. How processed do you want your “data”? 6 Liebman and Allured (2005)

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8 Notes on the Rivers Arinos, Juruena, and Tapajos W. Chandless Journal of the Royal Geographical Society of London, Vol. 32 (1862), pp. 268-280 8

9 Recent Explorations in the Valley of the Amazonas, with Map Chas. Fred. Hartt Journal of the American Geographical Society of New York, Vol. 3. (1872), pp. 231-252. 9

10 Average GOES low cloudiness May 2001 Known bias in clouds from the river breeze effect. What kind of rainfall bias is there? Molion and Dallarosa (≈1980’s) River breeze. Detected breeze at Manaus back in 1985, 1987 (ABLE-2). Oliveira & Fitzjarrald (1990 ab); (LBA, CIRSAN, Santarém) STM breeze Silva Dias et al. (2001) Lu et al. (2005) Confluence of the Amazon and Tapajós rivers. 15-20 km wide 10

11 “Era uma vez ….” D’Almeida et al. (2007) 11 Brisa vegetal Brisa fluvial Seeking mechanisms…

12 Does it matter that many long-term climate stations are all along the rivers? 12

13 00-03 UTC 06-09 UTC 12-15 UTC 18-21 UTC (From Kousky et al. 2006, CMORPH analyses) Influence of large scale ‘instability lines’ on precipitation at STM: provides a nocturnal rainfall maximum? Where? Time of ‘maximum precipitation rate’ 13

14 Measuring convective precipitation in the Amazon (anywhere?) is still a challenge. Tools: Conventional rain gauge network: daily totals, some stations with hourly data (Hidro, INMET) LBA-ECO special observations CMORPH remotely sensed rainfall (Joyce et al.) Passive microwave, CMORPH uses IR only as a transport vehicle, i.e. IR data are NOT used to make estimates of rainfall when passive microwave data are not available. BRAMS model 14

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16 Molion and Dallarosa (1988)—hypothesize that river breeze suppresses rain at a, b, d, e, f …. 16 Annual precipitation totals (m)g = Belterra

17 Fordlandia and Belterra, Rubber Plantations on the Tapajos River, Brazil Joseph A. Russell Economic Geography, Vol. 18, No. 2. (Apr., 1942), pp. 125-145. FordlândiaBelterra 1929 1933 1931 1929 1937 EÑ 17

18 1998: ( Não, não! As aventuras primeiro, disse o Grifo num ton impaciente.) 18

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20 Original Belterra LBA station km117 station Installed July 1998 LBA-ECO weather stations 20 With Jorge de Melo

21 21 Historical rainfall records in this region—not continuous

22 One way to improve rain gauge statistics (at least at 1 point). 22

23 FLONA Tapajós wedge gauges--substantial overestimation relative to tipping buckets… ????? 23 Wedge gauges Tipping bucket

24 Daily totals Monthly totals Belterra station taken as the intercomparison point: TB & conventional measurements Find the daily averaged rainfall and then scale up to months, seasons. 24

25 1. Need to know what kind of rainfall is occurring & how much. 2. Astronauts are useful! Which station is ‘representative’? 25

26 More extreme events very near the Amazon channel… 26

27 Gridded (Liebman) rainfall totals looks like that seen along the river, but there is less rainfall inland--where is the ‘breeze suppression’? 27

28 convectivesynoptic Rain Dial (UT) Rain Dial: Afternoon precipitation: local convective activity Nocturnal rainfall: instability line rainfall 28

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32 We found the CMORPH rainfall wasn’t too bad in the Amazon CMORPH: 213 mm Gauges: 185 mm CMORPH Czikowsky et al. (2010) 32

33 Gradients in mean total annual rainfall—more rain to the W of the confluence 33

34 Squall Lines : 2000 to 2006 CCL: Costal Convective Line ( Propagation < 170 km) SL1: Squall Line Type 1 ( 170 Km 400 km) SL2 – STM – Moved around Santarem 34 Cohen(2009)

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37 37 2003-2006 CMORPH 0.25° resolution Cohen (2011)Cohen (2011)

38 BRAMS = Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric (RAMS) (Cotton et al., 2003). [simulations performed by Prof. Júlia Cohen, UFPa, Brasil The model’s initialization was variable, each 6 hours, with the analysis of CPTEC’s global model, the radiosondes and the available surface data. The integration period was 36 hours, initiating on June, 02, 2006, at 12 UTC. surface vegetation, radiation, cloud microphysics modules. Grell’s deep convective parameterization and shallow convection parameterization. Control and Topography Experiments now. In future, examine role of background flow on river breeze convergence & local rainfall Júlia Cohen model runs. ‘Explain all that,' said the Mock Turtle. 38

39 3 Grids Points X = 82,113,140 Points Y = 60,89,113 Points Z = 27,27,27 Points in soil = 8 Grid increments ( 72, 24, 8 km) River and Topography (m) Grid 2 Grid 3 39

40 Total rain (12 UTC on 2 June to 00 UTC June 4) with Topography Climatology : Total rain since costal to STMS 40

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42 Total rain (12 UTC on 2 June to 00 UTC June 4) with Topography Climatology : Total rain since costal to STMS 42

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44 Hints of convergence after squall passage at Vila Franca 44

45 Left to do: Large land use change boundaries sharp, but ‘vegetation breeze’ is subordinate to the river breeze. Or, is there any veggie breeze? Does such a breeze still occur on days following rain? ??? () think so! 45

46 67 77 67 77 Sodar at km 77 Tethered balloon Wind speed PAR T Old Growth Site (67) / Pasture site (77) comparison Long-term average Sdw(km67)≈0.95 Sdw(km77) Hard to find the driving temperature difference for a vegetation breeze… 46

47 47 Not just total rainfall, not just rainfall types, but also ‘irrigation frequency’ Fitzjarrald et al. (2008)

48 continuing work Grid 4 look at how the breeze circulations may enhance rainfall inland (daytime) & how convergence over the river confluence may do so (night). 48

49 continuing work: remote sensing CloudSat (how does one use thin slices of information? Seek composities to identify cross-river extent of breeze. afternoon pass (blue) to get composites of breeze circulation cloud structure overnight pass (red) to cross the squall lines obliquely 49

50 continuing collaboration: SIPAM Doppler radar and reviving the (now) UFOPa rain gauge network around STM, especially to the N of the Amazon River 50

51 Preliminary radar climatology (UFPa Cohen group & SIPAM) confirms the rainfall maximum near Vila Franca Estimativa de Precipitação Acumulada Mensal (mm) 00 a 12Z e 12 a 24Z Marshall-Palmer (pcpm) Rosenfeld(pcpr) Fulton (pcpf)

52 Março

53 Agosto

54 Dezembro

55 Conclusions Observed: Near-river stations do indeed miss the afternoon convective rain as would be expected if a river breeze influence dominates. Observed: This deficiency is more than compensated by additional nocturnal rainfall. This effect is local; for areas only a few kilometers inland from the rivers, nocturnal squall lines contribute less than half of total precipitation. Still hypothesis: Breeze circulations associated with the Amazon River (with a wind component approximately normal to the mean flow) affect rainfall more than does the Tapajós breeze (which approximately opposes the prevailing wind). Observed/Modeled: Even subtle topography modulates squall lines and enhances rainfall. Describing the proper mixture of precipitation types should be a concern for those assessing model sensitivity, especially since the reanalysis rainfall data are believed to be flawed. 55

56 Some remaining research questions What mechanism explains how mesoscale circulations, related to the large lake-like expanse of water at the confluence responsible for the nocturnal precipitation preference? As squall lines approach this region, does enhanced moist inflow augmented by southerly channeling up the Tapajós and easterly channeling along the Amazon fuel the storm as it approaches? On normal afternoons, how far inland must one go to get the precipitation ‘representative’ of the region? ° What is the role of topography in enhancing rainfall, especially N of the Amazon river?  Fitzjarrald, D. R., R. K. Sakai, O. L. L. Moraes, R. Cosme de Oliveira, O. C. Acevedo, M. J. Czikowsky, and T. Beldini (2008), Spatial and temporal rainfall variability near the Amazon-Tapajós confluence, J. Geophys. Res., 113, G00B11, doi:10.1029/2007JG000596, [printed 114(G1), 2009]. 56

57 “Who cares for you?” said Alice, (she had grown to her full size by this time.) “You're nothing but a pack of cards!” “Quem se importa com vocês?”, disse Alice (ela tinha chegado a seu tamanho normal a esa altura). “Voces não passam de um baralho de cartas!” An old guy ends up out of touch with the new ‘death of causality’ science --- ’data-model-RS fusion’ ‘data assimilation’ How can you win or lose? 57

58 58 Obrigado! Leonzinho e o “Triple Big Ear”

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60 Total rain (12 UTC on 2 June to 00 UTC June 4) with Topography 60

61 Total rain (12 UTC on 2 June to 00 UTC June 4) without Topography 61

62 Topografia minus no Topografia 62

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