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STRATCAP Internal Case Studies Actionable Events Across Regions.

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Presentation on theme: "STRATCAP Internal Case Studies Actionable Events Across Regions."— Presentation transcript:

1 STRATCAP Internal Case Studies Actionable Events Across Regions

2 STRATFOR Predictions 1997 - 19992000 - 20022003 - 20052006 - 20082009 - 2011 Asia Crisis Suharto Wahid Ousted Estrada Ousted China joins WTO US/Iran Alliance Japan military Argentina agriculture Iran intentions during Iraq War EU’s challenges EU unity Russia influence Iraq war Hamas policies US/Pakistan China instability US/China relations Syria/Lebanon Spain/Italy housing Berlin/Moscow Ethiopia/Somalia Russia/Georgia Bolivia Nat Gas Turkey reemergence Argentina agriculture Chilean unrest Iran Instability Fall of Musharraf Pakistani/al Qaeda relations NATO/Afghan Taliban Zuma election China/Peru FTA Thai political disruptions Russian Ruble Greece/Ireland Russia Privatization Plan North Korean Nuclear Tests Angola Niger Delta Ivory Coast War Drug War Peru election Iran Uprisings Bolivia/Brazil Argentina econ instability Venezuela instability Mubarak Lybia Civil War Japan nuclear plant meltdown Zambia/China

3 European Union - Detailed Summary Date / DocumentIncidentDetails 2000 Decade ForecastEU’s fundamental challenges STRATFOR predicted that the EU would face several challenges: The first test for Europe will be whether the EU’s monetary union can survive de-synchronization, in which some regions are booming, while others are in recession. The second test will be whether the rest of Europe is prepared to join Germany in defending the eastern frontiers of Poland in the face of resurgent Russian power. STRATFOR is pessimistic about the long-term prospects of a united EU. STRATFOR is not forecasting calamity in Europe in this decade, nor even later. STRATFOR does expect fraying and disintegration of apparently solid institutions. The fraying will be both deeper and faster than most observers expect. The culmination will be to force Germany to once again defend its own interests in a world that is indifferent or hostile to its needs 2005 Decade ForecastDecline of EU’s unitySTRATFOR continued to warn of EU troubles that would shake its political foundation. The crisis raised questions as to whether the euro will continue to survive and underscored Germany’s pivotal, and increasingly powerful, role within the region August 2007Spain and Italy housing crises STRATFOR highlighted that Spain and Italy were facing a deeper housing crises than the U.S. June 2009Greece & Ireland Sovereign Debt Crisis STRATFOR predicted that Greece would likely become the first European country to face significant economic problems beyond its control (w/ Ireland likely to follow). This would put pressure on the EU, particularly Germany, to bail out another member state.

4 Russia / Former Soviet Union - Detailed Summary Date / DocumentIncidentDetails 2005 Annual Forecast Russia’s increasing influence STRATFOR predicted that Russia would respond to the Western geopolitical penetration of its sphere of influence: born out with a reconsolidation of the majority of Russia’s former Soviet space under Moscow’s control, including (i) Kazakhstan and Belarus unions, (ii) Georgia invasion, (iii) large military deployments to Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, & Armenia, (iv) supporting reversal of a pro-Orange government in Ukraine, & (v) boosting the effectiveness of its security alliance 2006Berlin and Moscow Alliance As of 2006, STRATFOR started to predict Berlin and Moscow moving closer together as each saw a strategic partnership fitting their motives in the region. This prediction has born out politically and economically, particularly in security and energy 2008Russian invasion of Georgia After the US and the West recognized Kosovo in 2008, STRATFOR predicted Russia would militarily react to prove that the US and NATO could not guarantee the security of Russia’s former Soviet states. A prediction that was born out when Russia invaded Georgia. STRATFOR knew of this invasion the night before the media picked it up

5 Russia / Former Soviet Union - Detailed Summary (cont’d) Date / DocumentIncidentDetails 2008Russian RubleSTRATFOR knew (internally) that Putin called a majority of the oligarchs for an emergency, required meeting to discuss the Russian Ruble. From this, STRATFOR inferred that the meeting would be a discussion about the oligarchs participating in a rescue of the Ruble. Two days later, news of both the meeting and the outcome were announced in the media. October 2009Russian Privatization Plan STRATFOR outlined rivalries within the Kremlin and targets of an anticipated purge, resulting from a planned economic reform program. The program was publicly announced weeks later with more granular consequences (as predicted) in the final months of the year. STRATFOR knew about the Russian privatization program as well as the government’s plan to address corrupt budgeting processes, grant new powers to the Security Council, reshuffle officials at the Interior Ministry, and expand the powers of the Federal Security Service

6 Middle East - Detailed Summary Date / DocumentIncidentDetails October 2002US / Iran AllianceSTRATFOR predicted that the U.S. would have to work with the Iranians on the issue of Iraq. This was six months before the 2003 invasion of Iraq. This became clear in March 2007, when Iranian officials met their U.S. counterparts in Baghdad November 2002Iranian intentions for Iraq war When the Iranian nuclear program became publicized in 2002, STRATFOR forecast that the Iranian government would use the nuclear threat primarily as a destraction during the US war in Iraq while remaining focused on the more critical objective of consolidating influence in Iraq and the wider region March 2003Iraq warSix hours before the first bombs began to fall, STRATFOR alerted readers that the U.S. war in Iraq had begun June 2004Switch in Hamas Policies STRATFOR stated that Hamas would opt for mainstream politics as opposed to pure militancy. This was proven out two years later when Hamas participated in elections for the first time 2005Syria’s position in Lebanon Following Syria’s troop withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005, STRATFOR predicted that the Syrian regime would rapidly re-entrench its position in Lebanon, relying primarily on its intelligence, militant and banking assets July 2007Turkey reemergence STRATFOR predicted that Turkey would emerge from its post-Ottoman period of introspection and move to reclaim its role as a regional power. This became evident mid-2010 with Turkey’s challenge to Israel over its blockade of Gaza

7 Middle East - Detailed Summary (cont’d) Date / DocumentIncidentDetails June 2008Iranian Power Instability STRATFOR wrote about splits between conservatives in Iran’s power circles – more than a year before those splits became evident, with political turmoil surrounding presidential elections June 2009Iranian UprisingsWhen the Green Revolution took root in Iran following the 2009 election controversy, STRATFOR forecast the failure of the so-called revolution. STRATFOR also described the rise of the IRGC and the growing crisis of confidence faced by the corrupted clerical elite Continuous / Ongoing Iran and Israel threats Each time fresh speculation over an Israeli military strike against Iran would dominate the mainstream media, STRATFOR would provide a careful analysis explaining why such a strike was unlikely and emphasized the potency of Iran’s real “nuclear weapon” – the ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz Continuous / Ongoing Iran and BahrainWhile the world was focused on Arab uprisings in Egypt and Libya, STRATFOR turned the market’s attention to the far more strategic issue of what was happening in Bahrain, where the Shiite-dominated island had become a play in Iran’s covert strategy against the GCC states

8 South Asia - Detailed Summary Date / DocumentIncidentDetails January 2004U.S. Pakistan operations STRATFOR predicted as early as January 2004 that the U.S. would conduct overt operations in northwestern Pakistan, a movement that was seen unfolding more than four years later March 2007Fall of Musharraf regime STRATFOR foresaw the demise of the Musharraf regime in Pakistan 17 months before the president left office December 2007Pakistani / al Qaeda relations STRATFOR repeated that Pakistan would become the new battleground against al Qaeda May 2008NATO / Afghan Taliban Discussions STRATFOR publicly explored the possibility of NATO officials splitting and negotiating with Afghan Taliban members – at the time this was being discussed privately within NATO. The issue gained traction, with a consensus emerging publicly well over a year later on the eve of a January 2010 conference on the Afghanistan conflict in London

9 Asia / South Pacific - Detailed Summary Date / DocumentIncidentDetails 1995 Decade Forecast Asian Economic Crisis In 1996, STRATFOR stated that East Asian economies were at the peak of their growth cycle, foreshadowing the Asian financial crisis that unfolded in 1997 May 1998Indonesian Elections Suharto resigned as President due to strong opposition over his rule. STRATFOR knew Megawati Sukarnoputri would not take his place despite widespread belief that Sukarnoputri would be the next President. Sukarnoputri would be too big of a break from prior, established rule. Habibie, Suharto’s VP, ultimately became President and undertook some liberal political reforms November 2001China’s WTO banking requirements STRATFOR understood the requirements for joining the WTO and estimated how China would manipulate its existing system to meet these requirements. STRATFOR focused on how China would handle its banks with increasingly poor balance sheets. China ultimately created asset management companies that took on the banks’ bad assets, “cleaning” up the banks’ balance sheets and making them more attractive investments to outside capital. With attractive balance sheets, it did not make sense for foreign capital to set-up their own banks to compete against China. In summary, China ostensibly allowed foreign investors into the country (which the WTO required), but did so in a manner that didn’t hurt their control over the banking sector. 2001Indonesian & Philippine government disruption STRATFOR accurately predicted the downfall of the governments of Abdurrahman Wahid in Indonesia and Joseph Estrada in the Philippines, as well as naming their replacements (Megawati Sukarnoputri and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo)

10 Asia / South Pacific - Detailed Summary (cont’d) Date / DocumentIncidentDetails 2001Japanese militarization STRATFOR foresaw Japan’s drive toward remilitarization. 2004 / ongoingChinese economic instability STRATFOR foresaw an economic overheating in China, accompanied by growing pressures and disruptions of the Chinese “miracle.” At the time, Goldman Sachs and other financial institutions did not agree with STRATFOR, but over time they came to adopt STRATFORs analysis December 2004Souring relations between China & U.S. STRATFOR foresaw that China’s fixed exchange rate policy and growing trade deficits would lead to an economic confrontation between China and its Western trading partners December 2008Thai political disruptions STRATFOR accurately predicted many events in Thailand’s political crisis, including (i) that upon the dissolution of the People’s Power Party (forerunner of the subsequent Puea Thai Party), the seeds of a new phase of upheaval had already been planted and specifically noted the possibility that protests would disrupt plans for an ASEAN summit and (ii) in April 2009 and March 2010 that the Democrat Party-led government would outlast periods of severe civil strife and violence also were borne out May 2009North Korean Nuclear Tests STRATFOR knew (internally) that North Korea was planning a nuclear weapon test five days prior to the actual (and highly publicized) test. March 2011Japanese Nuclear Plant Meltdown STRATFOR released a Red Alert the weekend of March 12 alerting readers to the increasing risk of a nuclear threat posed by the tsunami

11 Africa - Detailed Summary Date / DocumentIncidentDetails July 2006Ethiopia’s Somalia intervention STRATFOR predicted that Ethiopia would intervene in the conflict in Somalia and send military forces as a counterterrorism effort December 2007South African Zuma election Despite popular belief that President-elect Zuma was a radical and would implement anti-business policies, STRATFOR predicted that Zuma would execute a centrist policy, a prediction that has proved correct thus far January 2009Angola’s increasing importance STRATFOR accurately predicted that Angola would gain greater recognition as a regional power in southern Africa. During the year, Washington launched a series of high-level diplomatic meetings with Angola and the country made its first appearance at the G-8 summit in London. Moreover, throughout 2010 political recognition continued to give rise to business recognition. With Angola’s fast growing, oil-driven economy unencumbered by the constraints of civil war, visits by representatives of many corporations and states in the region and further abroad continued throughout the year, underscoring efforts to develop economic relations and profits from the southern African state 2010Niger Delta PeaceSTRATFOR predicted that pipeline bombings and attacks from militant groups would subside when the new government came to power December 2010Ivory Coast Civil War STRATFOR accurately predicted that instability in the Ivory Coast would escalate to a civil war

12 Africa - Detailed Summary (cont’d) Date / DocumentIncidentDetails 2011Egypt - Mubarak Ousted Before demonstrations began in Egypt at the start of 2011, STRATFOR used the Alexandria church bombings to forecast that a major geopolitical shift was approaching that would return Egypt to its status as a pivot in Arab world. In addition, STRATFOR predicted that overthrow of Mubarak regime was a way for the military to maintain control and prevent Mubarak’s son Gamal from coming into power. Protests were a way to oust Mubarak and ensure his son would not come to power. March 2011Libya Civil WarSTRATFOR predicted that there would be a civil war due to the significant increase in arms and weapons crossing into the country combined with a deep understanding of the power players involved in the political structure of the country September 2011Zambia / China relations STRATFOR is currently predicting that Michael Sata (recently elected President ) will work with China despite his campaign rhetoric based on anti-business and trade with China.

13 Central and South America - Detailed Summary Date / DocumentIncidentDetails 2006Bolivian Natural Gas Nationalization and Implications When Bolivia attempted to nationalize its natural gas extraction and transportation infrastructure, STRATFOR correctly predicted that the impact of this effort would be to drive its neighbors (particularly Chile, Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina) to seek global sources of natural gas. This prediction was borne out when all four countries began to invest significantly in liquefied natural gas regasification facilities. Brazil also began to increase its domestic production of natural gas April 2008Argentina’s agriculture induced strife STRATFOR predicted that problems in Argentina’s agricultural and energy sectors would lead to economic decline and social strife. This forecast was borne out over the ensuing months with clashes between the agricultural sector and the government. The practical result of this deterioration can be seen in Argentina's switch from being a natural gas exporter to a natural gas importer and in the fall in beef, wheat, and corn production 2008Chilean social unrest STRATFOR correctly predicted as early as 2008 that rising incidences of protests by Chilean youths were not isolated incidents, but signaled a shift in demographics and politics in that country. This prediction has been validated in subsequent years as Chilean student protests have grown in size and influence alongside growing labor unrest and pressure against the post-dictatorship Chilean governments

14 Central and South America - Detailed Summary (cont’d) Date / DocumentIncidentDetails 2009Drug War instabilitySTRATFOR correctly predicted in 2009 the rising importance of Central America in the Mexican drug war. This trend rose to a breakpoint in 2011 when elements of the Los Zetas cartel mass murdered peasants in Guatemala, bringing unprecedented political attention to the issue 2009 Annual Forecast Mexican Drug Cartels STRATFOR highlighted that the influence of Mexican drug cartels would become more evident within the U.S., but without a massive influx of cartel-related crime from Mexico. During the year, La Familia Michoacana expanded its networks throughout the U.S., but most violence continued to be concentrated on Mexico’s side of the border July 2011Peruvian election implications STRATFOR predicted that, despite enormous worries in the financial and political spheres that incoming Peruvian President Ollanta Humala would use his leftist ideology to destabilize foreign investors, Humala would prove to be a cooperative partner for direct investors. So far, this has proven true as Humala has indeed begun to renegotiate many aspects of Peru's mineral policies, but has made compromises to take into account the needs of investors. As a result, he has been received positively by the finance community September 2011Bolivian / Brazilian confrontation STRATFOR correctly predicted that indigenous protests in the remote Bolivian TIPNIS nature reserve would become a key point of bilateral tension between Brazil and Bolivia. This prediction was born out in late October and early November when a cascading set of circumstances pushed the two into confrontation over the Bolivian government's capitulation to indigenous demands in direct violation of its agreements with Brazil

15 Central and South America - Detailed Summary (cont’d) Date / DocumentIncidentDetails 2011Argentinian economic instability In the lead up to the 2011 presidential elections, STRATFOR correctly identified the economic growth trends as temporary. STRATFOR also predicted (internally) that Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner was likely to win, and that in the wake of the October election her administration would begin to lift prices on limited key goods and seek to reduce Central Bank expenditures that were keeping the peso overvalued OngoingVenezuelan instability STRATFOR has correctly predicted the gradual decline and destabilization of the Venezuelan economy under the administration of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez as well as the government's increasing reliance on oil revenues

16 Ongoing Calls & Looking Forward Ongoing Calls  China – trade agreements  Zimbabwe – mining legislation Looking Forward  South China Sea – tension in the region  China – trade agreements with Tanzania and Kenya  Russia – Customs Union; privatizations  Turkey – re-emerging as a regional power resulting in increased Mediterranean tension  Argentina – potential run on the banks  Venezuela – food and resource scarcity finally driving Chavez out

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