Presentation on theme: "Afghanistan: Graveyard of Empires"— Presentation transcript:
1Afghanistan: Graveyard of Empires Cartier Coleman
2Agenda Research Question Theoretical Focus History of Afghanistan Current IssuesRelevance & Focus
3Research QuestionHow does a local Afghan citizen’s viewpoint on security impact coalition efforts to rebuild the nation?
4ThesisWhile the efforts to fight terrorism initially brought the U.S. to Afghanistan, as in many situations, the U.S. mission shifted and turned into nation building. Unfortunately, the war in Afghanistan has persisted for over ten years and efforts to quell violence, contain insurgency and rebuild Afghanistan have not consistently improved. Security in Afghanistan has and will continue to be a problem until security is addressed through a constructivist lens in order to help truly identify and solve issues within the nation. Through the constructivist lens, it can be shown that Afghanistan can have a successful and stable future, as well as garner international respect through better understanding and applying the organic issues they face to help counter historic and emerging problems.
5Theoretical Focus Why the Constructivist lens best fits What factors contribute to Afghan concerns20th Cent Afghan pre-USSRRussian InvasionTalibanU.S. InvasionHow this lens can impact changeMistakes of the past repeatedKey civilian concerns ignored
620th Cent. History (pre-USSR Invasion) 1926, Amanullah Khan founded an Afghan MonarchyProgressive and pushed for modernization1929,Habibullah Khan overthrew Khan & in turn was killed by Prince Nadir Khan (cousin of Emir Khan)Attempted gradual modernization1933 Nadir Khan killed, son Zahir Shah became king1964 Zahir began to experiment with democracyBicameral legislature split into thirds1973 nonviolent coupe led to former PM Daoud Khan1978 PDPA kills Daoud & family and takes over AfghanContinued warring with multiple factions occur (Afghan becomes DRA)
720th Cent. History (pre-USSR Invasion) Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (via PDPA)SocialismLand ReformWomen’s RightsInvitation of USSR to establish infrastructureKilling of historic elitesPopulace perceptionIncreasingly less popularToo dependent on USSRToo liberal/modernNo local support, security or services
8Russian Invasion Factors prompting invasion U.S. Support to Mujahedeen Egypt-Israel peace treatyStrategic placementPerceived natural resourcesSpread/support DRA & communismU.S. Support to MujahedeenChance to impact USSR during Cold WarI.C. assistance to strain USSR economyStrategic advantageFactors prompting exitGorbachev, costly-long and I.C. view/pressurePopulace perceptionNo local needs addressed, no support of DRA
10Post USSR - Taliban Factors causing Taliban rule Mullah Omar Continued warring factionsWarlords/OpiumLawlessness/CorruptionMullah OmarMotivation to actMeaning of TalibEstablishing TalibanPopulace perceptionInitially very popularAddressed immediate local needsFaith based and then a shift – no local needs
11U.S. Invasion – pre-Troop Surge Factors causing invasionAttacks of 9/11Osama bin LadenRefusal to extraditeInitial mandate & shiftCapture/Kill bin LadenNation buildingIraq War impactsPopulace perceptionInitially no concernInitially popularFalse hope Karzai and ANSF (Old regime/corruption)
12Post- U.S. Troop Surge Factors causing surge Purpose of Surge Inability to quell opium harvestingTaliban ResurgencePurpose of SurgeCreate model province (Khandahar)Prevent Taliban ResurgenceEstablish securityPopulace perceptionNo trust in Gov’tDependency on U.S.Limited to no local services
13Security Current State of Security Security from an Afghan’s View Current methodology (COIN/Kinetic focus)How “we” view security?Security from an Afghan’s ViewPriorities/ConcernsWhat type of security is important to them?Who has the most influence on the people?
14Relevance & Focus Constructivist corrective lens Relevance Focus Gives understanding to populace motivesIdentifies why the Taliban (like groups) thriveHelps identify possible attainable objectivesRelevanceOutline/guide to solutionsHelps shape and gives basis for my thesisFocusAnswers research questionShapes possible recommendations toward solution
15Recommendations via New Lens Achievable GoalsGov’t Corruption (legitimize gov’t in public eyes)Identify three “model” provinces for EMS/Sec policy changeQuantitative kinetic targeting of Taliban/Ins leaders (deadlines & smaller target list)Mullah outreach programs
16Security Afghan Security Forces U.S./NATO Timeline & Impact Status 191,592 – Afghan National Army (May 2012) 146,641 – Afghan National Police (June 2012) Total – 338,233Future concerns87,000 – Troops Deployed in Afghanistan (June 2012) 113,736 – Department of Defense (DoD) Contractors (July 2012) 28,686 – DoD Private Security – does not include USAID and StateBudget, 10% funding by AfghanistanU.S./NATO Timeline & Impact2014 objective