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Decision and experience:why don't we choose what makes us happy Author : Christopher K. Hsee and Reid Hastie Source : Trends in Cognitive Sciences Volume.

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Presentation on theme: "Decision and experience:why don't we choose what makes us happy Author : Christopher K. Hsee and Reid Hastie Source : Trends in Cognitive Sciences Volume."— Presentation transcript:

1 Decision and experience:why don't we choose what makes us happy Author : Christopher K. Hsee and Reid Hastie Source : Trends in Cognitive Sciences Volume 10, Issue 1, January 2006, Pages 指導教授:戴敏育老師 報告者 : 淡江大學資訊管理系碩士班 吳至偉 日期: 2011/10/21

2 outline Introduction Failures to predict future experience accurately Failures to follow predictions Summary

3 Introduction Fundamental assumption of classic economic theory  People are able to identify and choose what is best for them Are people really able to choose what is best for them? Recent findings from behavioral-decision research  People are not always able to choose what yields the greatest happiness or best experience

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5 Failures to predict future experience accurately Behavioral-decision researchers have identified several systematic biases  Impact bias  Projection bias  Distinction bias  Memory bias  Belief bias

6 Impact bias People often overestimate the impact of an affective event One cause of this impact bias is focalism  predictors pay too much attention to the central event and overlook context events Another cause of impact bias is immune neglect  after an emotion-evoking event happens, people tend to rationalize or make sense of it

7 Projection bias People making predictions and people experiencing are often in different arousal states Projection bias occurs not only when experiencers are others Projection bias can lead to choices that one will regret

8 Distinction bias Distinction bias occurs because predictors and experiencers are in different evaluation modes(single or joint-evaluation) Distinction bias can also lead to non-optimal choices

9 Memory bias Predictions of future experiences are often based on memories of related past experiences  memory is fallible and introduces systematic biases into evaluations A classic experiment by Kahneman and co- authors

10 Belief bias A guide of hedonic forecasts is people’s lay theories of what makes them happy or unhappy One common belief is more choice options are always better

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12 Failures to follow predictions Decision- makers need to act on their predictions Decision- makers variously choose the option that has these characters  Impulsivity  rule-based choice  lay rationalism  medium maximization

13 Impulsivity A major cause of sub-optimal decisions is impulsivity The choice of an immediately gratifying option at the cost of long-term happiness  overeating, avoiding medical exams, taking drugs, and squandering savings

14 Rule-based decisions Decision-makers sometimes base their choices on rules for good behavior rather than predicted experience Some examples of decision rules  seek variety  don’t waste

15 Lay rationalism Decision-makers strive to be rational  the desire for rationality can lead to less rational decisions Three specific manifestations of lay rationalism  lay economism  lay scientism  lay functionalism

16 Medium maximization Often when people exert effort to obtain a desired outcome, the immediate reward they receive is not the outcome itself, but a medium people work harder and harder to accumulate more and more wealth, but are not in fact happier

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18 Summary For decades, behavioral-decision researchers have studied inconsistencies in choices, demonstrating In recent years, decision researchers have studied directly when decisions are sub- optimal  two general reasons for the failure  prediction biases  failures to follow predictions

19 Summary Many social policies(free choice of health providers, retirement plans)are built upon the assumptions that people know their own preferences and that what people choose must be in their best interests The behavioral-decision-research findings we have reviewed here cast doubt on these assumptions

20 Decision and experience:why don't we choose what makes us happy 報告者 : 淡江大學資訊管理系碩士班 吳至偉 Q&A


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