it’s a three-part process (we can’t do it all today) : what drivers may affect your organisation or its beneficiaries (for good or ill) ? so what are the implications ? now what to do about it ?
‘the future is already here – it’s just unevenly distributed’ william gibson
we make it easy: 100 drivers (trends) on 3s4.org.uk
a good old tool : PEST 4 mins, in twos trends affecting you / your beneficiaries by 2020 politics (& legal) economics (& environment) societytechnology
top drivers spotted by the sector last 3 years training in 9 regions (search VSNW on www.3s4.org.uk) 6-month-long foresight coaching for 8 umbrella bodies (search them too!)
looking back from 2020 (permanent beta, please don’t sue)
the ‘teens’ began with desire for change [coalition, electoral reform]
‘there’s no more money’ the coalition response was part of a global shift in how the state delivers: the 90s now seem as long ago as the 70s did in 2010. why?
underlying ‘crunch 4’ of economy, climate, resources & stubborn, rising need
a rubik’s cube of new old words big good govt local citizens society
the social fallout splits cut many ways: soaring expectations (eg EU & UK equal rights law) v dwindling receipts white-ish, ‘rich’, baby-boomers-plus v young, diverse, poor, ‘undeserving’ migrants
in 2010, 36p of each £1 of charity income was from govt cuts took us back to 2003/04 (Tory pre-election figures) ie: pre-ChangeUp investment Statutory funding of the VCS, 2001/01- 2007/08 (£billions): NCVO
perpetual innovation eg: social impact bonds 2010 pilot peterborough prison raised £5m if reoffending cut by 7.5%+, MoJ would share out savings but many questions needed resolving. eg: what counts? who counts it?
social media impacted everything not just comms & campaigns the network effect caused explosive growth. in 2010 twitter had 180m users (after just 4 years) (almost) the death of print media in 2020 your mobile is the main way you use the web but the ‘IT poor’ are a real problem
like it or not, massive shift happens (click twice)
50+ global web philanthropy exchanges in 2010 eg kiva you are the philanthropist direct relationship with projects by 2020, giving happens without the middle-man
‘atomised collectivity’ (what in 2010 we still called ‘community’) small government (& small society?) web-enabled micro-volunteering of what Clay Shirky called your ‘cognitive surplus’ single equalities act ► ‘diversity mosaic’? not blending is there still a role for generalist organisations when people can source everything direct?
a drive to local solutions, individual & community responsibility grassroots swell in community organising – inspired by Obama (etc), facilitated by technology, driven by need politicians of all hues try to conceptualise and harness this (NESTA ‘mass localism’) but no consensus on: big / small society / government polls say we don’t think experts/govt know best, & support others taking responsibility and being more involved. but fewer of us want to be more involved! Proportion who have given any unpaid help to non- relatives in the last 12 months Source: Citizenship Survey
there are so many ifs. for instance…. how do the statutory bodies in your local area influence your organisation’s success? (%) Ipsos-MORI for OTS
we can coach you, scan for you, bring you & others together to study a shared threat or opportunity… ncvo third sector foresight www.3s4.org.uk