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What’s on your horizon? ncvo third sector foresight

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Presentation on theme: "What’s on your horizon? ncvo third sector foresight"— Presentation transcript:

1 what’s on your horizon? ncvo third sector foresight

2 our immediate future (next 90 mins) what foresight is & isn’t what’s on your horizon how the 2010s will look in the rear view mirror [who’s in the room?]

3 foresight is…understanding your changing world (and so making better decisions)

4 spotting the storm before it hits (so buying you time to plan)

5 preparedness not prediction

6 foresight avoids problems later

7 foresight helps you choose a hill (so you can plan the right moves to get there)

8 you have to make time (or you’ll always be fire-fighting)





13 we should have seen it coming

14 but so should they (& others…)

15 ‘it’s not the strongest that survives, or the most intelligent, it’s the most adaptable’


17 so, how do we do foresight ?

18 it’s a three-part process (we can’t do it all today) : what drivers may affect your organisation or its beneficiaries (for good or ill) ? so what are the implications ? now what to do about it ?

19 ‘the future is already here – it’s just unevenly distributed’ william gibson

20 we make it easy: 100 drivers (trends) on

21 a good old tool : PEST 4 mins, in twos trends affecting you / your beneficiaries by 2020 politics (& legal) economics (& environment) societytechnology

22 top drivers spotted by the sector last 3 years training in 9 regions (search VSNW on 6-month-long foresight coaching for 8 umbrella bodies (search them too!)

23 looking back from 2020 (permanent beta, please don’t sue)

24 the ‘teens’ began with desire for change [coalition, electoral reform]

25 ‘there’s no more money’ the coalition response was part of a global shift in how the state delivers: the 90s now seem as long ago as the 70s did in 2010. why?

26 underlying ‘crunch 4’ of economy, climate, resources & stubborn, rising need

27 a rubik’s cube of new old words big good govt local citizens society

28 the social fallout splits cut many ways: soaring expectations (eg EU & UK equal rights law) v dwindling receipts white-ish, ‘rich’, baby-boomers-plus v young, diverse, poor, ‘undeserving’ migrants

29 in 2010, 36p of each £1 of charity income was from govt cuts took us back to 2003/04 (Tory pre-election figures) ie: pre-ChangeUp investment Statutory funding of the VCS, 2001/01- 2007/08 (£billions): NCVO

30 perpetual innovation eg: social impact bonds 2010 pilot peterborough prison raised £5m if reoffending cut by 7.5%+, MoJ would share out savings but many questions needed resolving. eg: what counts? who counts it?

31 social media impacted everything not just comms & campaigns the network effect caused explosive growth. in 2010 twitter had 180m users (after just 4 years) (almost) the death of print media in 2020 your mobile is the main way you use the web but the ‘IT poor’ are a real problem

32 like it or not, massive shift happens (click twice)

33 50+ global web philanthropy exchanges in 2010 eg kiva you are the philanthropist direct relationship with projects by 2020, giving happens without the middle-man

34 ‘atomised collectivity’ (what in 2010 we still called ‘community’) small government (& small society?) web-enabled micro-volunteering of what Clay Shirky called your ‘cognitive surplus’ single equalities act ► ‘diversity mosaic’? not blending is there still a role for generalist organisations when people can source everything direct?

35 looking back from 2020

36 what does all this mean for our near future?

37 a drive to local solutions, individual & community responsibility grassroots swell in community organising – inspired by Obama (etc), facilitated by technology, driven by need politicians of all hues try to conceptualise and harness this (NESTA ‘mass localism’) but no consensus on: big / small society / government polls say we don’t think experts/govt know best, & support others taking responsibility and being more involved. but fewer of us want to be more involved! Proportion who have given any unpaid help to non- relatives in the last 12 months Source: Citizenship Survey

38 there are so many ifs. for instance…. how do the statutory bodies in your local area influence your organisation’s success? (%) Ipsos-MORI for OTS

39 we can coach you, scan for you, bring you & others together to study a shared threat or opportunity… ncvo third sector foresight

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