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ADI INDRAYANTO INDONESIA ICT & ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY FGD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING LP4 ITB.

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Presentation on theme: "ADI INDRAYANTO INDONESIA ICT & ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY FGD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING LP4 ITB."— Presentation transcript:

1 ADI INDRAYANTO INDONESIA ICT & ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY FGD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING LP4 ITB

2 INDONESIA ICT MARKET OVERVIEW

3 INDONESIA VS ASEAN COUNTRIES Indonesia becomes the largest spender on IT in South East Asia ranked 19 th globally, growth 15% CAGR to 2014 (Source: IDC) IT spending $10.9 billion USD in 2011, raise 18.3% to $12.9 billion USD for 2012, and may reach $17.8 billion USD by 2016, mostly on Hardware (80%) (Source: Global Business Guide Indonesia – 2013)

4 ASEAN ICT SPENDING IN 2015 (SOURCE: IDC)

5 ICT COMPETITIVENESS (SOURCE: THE GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS REPORT 2012-2013, WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM)

6 GLOBAL COMPETITIVE INDEX (SOURCE: THE GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS REPORT 2012-2013, WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM)

7

8 BROADBAND QUALITY (SOURCE: ITU 2012)

9 INTERNET MARKET Indonesia the 5 th largest Internet market in Asia after China, Japan, India, and South Korea. Internet users has grown from 2 million (2000) to more than 31 million (2010), and reach 55 million (2012). Forecast in 2015 will be 125 million (baseline) or 150 million (optimistic), growth rate more than 30% in the next 5 years. (source: redwing-asia)

10 INTERNET USERS BY 2015 (SOURCE: REDWING-ASIA)

11 INTERNET USERS AGE GROUP It is an emerging market, has younger audiences. By 2011, 73% internet users are between 15 – 34 age groups, where 36% is women. It is only about 13% of total population. (source: comScore) However, after 2011 the 25-50 age group has grown over the past two years. (source: redwing-asia) The user base is relatively spread evenly across all age groups. Potential growth is still very high.

12 USERS DEMOGRAPHIC (SOURCE: NATIONAL STATISTICS AGENCY) More than 30 years span of demographic bonus

13 MOBILE INTERNET Mobile (wireless) infrastructure is more developed compare to fixed (wired) infrastructure, cover 90% of Indonesian’s population. In 2010, there are more than 200 million mobile cellular subscriptions, and 15 million of them with broadband access. 63% internet users have adopted mobile internet. The highest level of mobile phone ownership is in 8 – 24 years old, with 80% penetration. Indonesia among the highest ranks in the world for mobile browsing intensity (633 pages per month/person). (Source: Market Alert No. 2/2011 by MATRADE Jakarta)

14 MOBILE USERS STATISTIC (SOURCE: MASTEL ICT OUTLOOK 2012)

15 PRIMARY REASONS Three primary reasons why mobile internet market is big in Indonesia: 1.Price Mobile (wireless) has many cheaper internet packages compare to wired broadband internet (mostly on corporate market). 2.Infrastructure Mobile infrastructure is more developed for last miles internet access, cover about 90% of populations, suitable for achipelago country with huge amount of islands (17.508 islands, only 6000 inhabited). Wired broadband is more concentrated in urban areas. Mobile penetration (9%) is higher than wired broadband internet (3%) (Source: AT Kearney & GSMA 2011)

16 MOBILE PENETRATION (SOURCE: AT KEARNEY & GSMA 2011)

17 MOBILE OPERATORS (SOURCE: TELKOM 2010)

18 MOBILE FREQUENCY BANDS (SOURCE: DITJEND SDPPI KEMKOMINFO)

19 PRIMARY REASONS... Three primary reasons... : 3.Culture Indonesian spend about 17.2 online hours/month. Internet usages (% of internet users): 42% email; 39% reading newspapers; 29% searching information of products and services; 27% reading magazines; 23% chatting; 50% do online shopping, only1% spending their online time for shopping; 35 million has account in Facebook (2 nd largest Facebook users in the world); 3 rd highest number of tweets in the world. (Source: Market Alert No. 2/2011 by MATRADE Jakarta)

20 INDONESIA MOBILE PHONES MARKET TRENDS

21 CURRENT MARKET CONDITION The Middle-lower Segment, in Second and Third tier cities, has long been the Biggest Market for Feature Phones, especially Local Brands Feature Phones sold More Units, around 84 Percent of the Market Local Brands, Cross and Mito, are the Top Five Mobile Phone Brands alongside Nokia, Samsung and Research in Motion (RIM) – (Source: IDC) Most Local Brands were Manufactured in China

22 LOCAL BRAND CROSS CASE CROSS was Founded in 2008 In Year 2012 Sales Grew Two-fold, in Runner-up Position after Nokia (the Third is Samsung, the Fourth is MITO, and the Fifth is Blackberry) The Biggest Market is in Java (Jawa Island) with 55 Percent of Sales Offered at least 45 Models of Featured Phones Introduce 5 New Models every Month (Indonesians change their phones every 9 months on average) Introduce 7 Android Smartphones with Price Less than $155

23 INDONESIAN CONSUMERS 61 Percent of the Population is Middle Class (Source: BI) 90 Million People will enter the Consumer Class, with an Annual Net Income of US$3,600 by 2030 (Source: McKinsey) Population: 240 million, 55% under 30 years old 96% of Indonesians Use Social Media 12% of Global Tweets from Indonesia (Indonesia the 4 th Largest Twitter Country in the World) 87% Twitter Messages are sent via Mobile Phones Indonesia is also the 4 th Largest Facebook Country

24 MARKET FACTS Connected mobile devices: 280 million 3G subscriptions: 30 milion Mobile phone ownership: 80% Smartphone Penetration: 24% PC or Laptop Owners: 5% Some of the Cheapest Mobile Tariffs in the World 50% Mobile Sold Below $50, 85% Mobile Sold Below $100, 3% Mobile Sold Above $250 (Source: IDC) Average Price of Mobile Sold: $90 Market Circulation 3.5 million units phones per months (100 local brands)

25 MARKET FACTS

26 IMPORT HANDPHONE KONTRIBUSI DEFISIT NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA Nilai Import Handphone Rp 29 Trilyun 31% dari Total Defisit Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia Sebesar US$ 8 Milyar 2013, Import HP Sebesar 15 Ton Unit (Source: Majalah ICT)

27 MODEL EKOSISTEM INDUSTRI TIK INDUSTRI PERANGKAT, OPERATOR, HINGGA KONTEN

28 STRUKTUR INDUSTRI TIK (SOURCE: MP3EI) Content Industry (digital publishing, e-comerce, animation, etc) Layer 0 Software & Telematic Applications (e-Gov, e-Health, e-Education, etc ) Layer 1 Internet Service Provider Layer 2 Network (Infrastructure) Provider Layer 3 Integration, Installation & Maintenance Layer 4 ICT Devices Manufactures (OEM, ODM) Layer 5 ICT Components Industry Layer 6 Component Materials Industry Layer 7

29 INDUSTRI NETWORK & SERVICE PROVIDER (SOURCE: MP3EI) Content Industry (digital publishing, e-comerce, animation, etc) Layer 0 Software & Telematic Applications (e-Gov, e-Health, e-Education, etc ) Layer 1 Internet Service Provider Layer 2 Network (Infrastructure) Provider Layer 3 Integration, Installation & Maintenance Layer 4 ICT Devices Manufactures (OEM, ODM) Layer 5 ICT Components Industries Layer 6 Component Materials Industries Layer 7

30 INDUSTRI SOFTWARE, APLIKASI & KONTEN (SOURCE: MP3EI) Content Industry (digital publishing, e-comerce, animation, etc) Layer 0 Software & Telematic Applications (e-Gov, e-Health, e-Education, etc ) Layer 1 Internet Service Provider Layer 2 Network (Infrastructure) Provider Layer 3 Integration, Installation & Maintenance Layer 4 ICT Devices Manufactures (OEM, ODM) Layer 5 ICT Components Industry Layer 6 Component Materials Industry Layer 7

31 INDUSTRI PERANGKAT TELEMATIKA (SOURCE: MP3EI) Content Industry (digital publishing, e-comerce, animation, etc) Layer 0 Software & Telematic Applications (e-Gov, e-Health, e-Education, etc ) Layer 1 Internet Service Provider Layer 2 Network (Infrastructure) Provider Layer 3 Integration, Installation & Maintenance Layer 4 ICT Devices Manufactures (OEM, ODM) Layer 5 ICT Components Industry Layer 6 Component Materials Industry Layer 7

32 VALUE CHAIN INDUSTRI ELEKTRONIKA EFEK DARI MODULARITY PRODUK

33 VALUE CHAIN INDUSTRI PERANGKAT TIK (SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)

34 VALUE CHAIN INDUSTRI KOMPONEN (SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)

35 INDUSTRI KOMPONEN ENTRY BARRIER (SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)

36 VALUE CHAIN ODM/OEM (SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)

37 ODM/OEM ENTRY BARRIER (SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)

38 VALUE CHAIN MANUFAKTUR ELEKTRONIKA (SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)

39 MANUFAKTUR ENTRY BARRIER (SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)

40 PEMETAAN SDM - INDUSTRI TIK (SOURCE: MP3EI)

41

42 VALUE CHAIN MODULARITY (SOURCE: GANGNES, ASSCHE, 2011) Vertically Integrated Horizontally Specialized

43 VALUE CHAIN MODULARITY (SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)

44

45 CONTOH LEAD FIRMS (SOURCE: STURGEON & KAWAKAMI, 2010) NoSegmen PasarJenis ProdukLead Firms 1KomputerPC (dekstop, notebook, netbook), embedded computers IBM, Fujitsu, Siemens, HP, Dell, Apple, Acer, Lenovo 2Peripheral Komputer Printer, Fax, Scanner, Mesin Photocopy HP, Xerox, Epson, Kodak, Cannon, Lexmark, Acer, Fujitsu, Sharp 3Consumer electronics TV, Home HiFi, portable audio&video, game consoles, toys, musical equip., mobile phone handset Philips, Toshiba, Sony, Sharp, Apple, Nintendo, Microsoft, Samsung, LG, NEC, Matsushita, Hitachi, HTC, Politron 4NetworkingPublic & private communication network, internet, mobile phone infrastructure Alcatel, Nortel, Cisco, Motorola, Juniper, Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia

46 CONTOH CONTRACT MANUFACTURER (SOURCE: STURGEON & KAWAKAMI, 2010) NoNegaraJenis ServiceContract Manufacturer 1Taiwan, ChinaEMSFoxconn (Hon Hai) 2Taiwan, ChinaODMQuanta Computer 3Taiwan, ChinaODMCompal Electronics 4CanadaEMSCelestica 5US & SingaporeEMSFlextronics 6JapanEMSSIIX 7LuxembourgEMSElcoteq 8GermanyEMSZollner Elektronik 9SingaporeEMSBeyonics 10SingaporeEMSVenture 11IndonesiaEMSSatNusa

47 CONTOH PLATFORM LEADER (SOURCE: STURGEON & KAWAKAMI, 2010) NoSegmen PasarJenis ProdukFirms 1Komputer Chipset PC dekstop, notebook, netbook INTEL 2Komputer, Consumer Electronics PC desktop, tablet, portable audio & video, mobile phone handset APPLE 3Audio & Video Chipset CD, DVD, DVR, HDTVMediaTEK

48 NILAI TAMBAH DALAM VALUE CHAIN (SOURCE: MUDAMBI, 2008) Lead Firms Contract Manufacturer Platform Leader

49 ADDED-VALUE PADA VALUE CHAIN INDUSTRI ELEKTRONIKA FENOMENA SHAN ZHAI – PELAJARAN DARI CHINA

50 VALUE CHAIN MOBILE PHONES (SOURCE: DTI, 2012)

51 GLOBAL MOBILE PHONE INDUSTRY VALUE 2010 (SOURCE: DTI, 2012)

52 CONTOH BOM PHONES BB CURVE 8300 (SOURCE: DEDRICK, KRAEMER, LINDEN, 2010)

53 PERBANDINGAN BOM 3 MEREK MOBILE PHONES (SOURCE: DEDRICK, KRAEMER, LINDEN, 2010)

54 SHANZHAI MOBILE PHONE VALUE CHAIN (SOURCE: DIGITIMES, 2009)

55 BIAYA SHANZHAI VS MEREK INTERNASIONAL (SOURCE: DIGITIMES, 2009)

56 STRATEGI PENINGKATAN NILAI TAMBAH BERGERAK DARI NILAI TAMBAH RENDAH KE NILAI TAMBAH TINGGI

57 CONTOH PERSENTASI BIAYA KOMPONEN 30 GB IPOD (SOURCE: DEDRICK, KRAEMER, LINDEN, 2008)

58 CONTOH MARGIN NILAI TAMBAH (SOURCE: DEDRICK, KRAEMER, LINDEN, 2008) Video 30 GB Ipod HP NC6230 Notebook

59 BERKEMBANG MELINGKUPI VALUE CHAIN LAIN (SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)

60 TEACHING FACTORY INTERAKSI DUNIA AKADEMIK & INDUSTRI Teaching Factory ODM/OEM Industri Perangkat ODM Industri Komponen Industri Komponen Electronics Manufacturing Service (EMS) Perguruan Tinggi & Politeknik TECHNO PARK

61 PEMETAAN SDM - INDUSTRI TIK (SOURCE: MP3EI)

62 NILAI TAMBAH DALAM VALUE CHAIN (SOURCE: MUDAMBI, 2008) Lead Firms Contract Manufacturer Platform Leader Pera n ITB

63 KORIDOR EKONOMI – INDUSTRI TIK (SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)

64 INTERNATIONAL HUB – INDUSTRI TIK (SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)

65 KESIMPULAN & USULAN Industri Elektronika Dunia Saat Ini Value Chain nya Terfragmentasi Trend Pergerakan Industri Elektronika Dunia, untuk beberapa Value Chain nya, Bergerak ke Negara Berkembang  Low Labours, Emerging Markets Industri Elektronika Indonesia Tidak Bisa Lepas dari Value Chain Industri Elektronika Dunia Industri Dalam Negeri (IDN) Indonesia masih Terisolasi dari Value Chain Industri Elektronika Dunia

66 KESIMPULAN & USULAN Pemerintah Indonesia Belum Memiliki Strategi untuk Mengembangkan Industri Elektronika ITB WAJIB Membantu Pemerintah untuk Menyusun Strategi Pengembangan Industri Elektronika ITB Sebaiknya bukan Hanya Kontribusi pada Pembentukan SDM dan Penguasan Sains & Teknologi saja Tetapi Juga perlu Kontribusi pada Penyusunan Kebijakan Industri Elektronika dan Pembentukan Value Chain Industri Elektronika di Indonesia

67 KESIMPULAN & USULAN Fokus Teknik Elektronika Umumnya Masih Pada Pengembangan SDM dari Sisi “Hardcore” Engineering (Tukang), Siapa Yang Memikirkan Industri Elektronika dan Kebijakan Industri Bidang Elektronika di Indonesia? Kerjasama Multi-Disiplin di ITB Perlu DIPERKUAT Ada Program Studi Multi-Disiplin yang Fokus pada Industri Elektronika dan Kebijakan Industri Elektronika

68 PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB JL. GANESHA 10, BANDUNG / Email: adisaja@gmail.com THANK YOU


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